{"status":true,"post":{"id":51697,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-05-13 08:07:00","created_at":"2024-05-13T05:07:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-05-13T05:07:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":51697,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130lkbahar d\u00f6neminde ekonomik beklentiler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"<p id=\"isPasted\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-align: right;\"><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Yerel se\u00e7imleri de geride b\u0131rakt\u0131ktan sonra a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ekonomiye verilece\u011fi ilkbahar aylar\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015famaya ba\u015flad\u0131k. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, faiz indirim takvimleri ile toparlanma beklentileri izleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>1. D\u00fcnyada enflasyonlar farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor, faiz indirimleri \u00f6teleniyor\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Enflasyondaki genel geli\u015fmeler ABD, Euro b\u00f6lgesi ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de farkl\u0131 e\u011filimleri ortaya koydu. ABD\u2019de enflasyon \u00fc\u00e7 ay \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckselerek y\u00fczde 3.5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yaz aylar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi endi\u015fesi bulunuyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk faiz indirimi eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar \u00f6telendi. Euro b\u00f6lgesinde enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kan\u0131tlar\u0131 giderek art\u0131yor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle haziran ay\u0131nda 25 baz puan ile ilk faiz indirimini yapacak. Y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da 2-3 faiz indirimi daha bekleniyor. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ilk faiz indirimini yapaca\u011f\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l sonuna kadar 1 faiz indirimi daha yapabilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>2. B\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellendi. \u00d6zellikle ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin halen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 g\u00fcncellemeye neden oldu. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 2.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 1.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 1.7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kacak. ABD\u2019de 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2.7, Euro b\u00f6lgesinde y\u00fczde 0.8, Almanya\u2019da y\u00fczde 0.2 ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de y\u00fczde 0.5 olarak tahmin ediliyor. Faiz indirimleri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc destekleyecektir. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.3 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4.2\u2019dir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>3. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ekonomi program\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilecek\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 ekonomi y\u00f6netimi aynen devam ediyor ve ekonomi program\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilerek s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclecek. Program\u0131n bundan sonraki beklenen \u00f6nemli aya\u011f\u0131 ise kamu maliyesinde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmad\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle kamu harcamalar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bekleniyor. Maliye politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ile program\u0131n i\u00e7 talepte dengelenme, enflasyonda gerileme ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 hedeflerine daha \u00e7abuk ula\u015f\u0131labilecek. Yap\u0131sal reformlarda da beklentiler bulunuyor. Program\u0131n bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli aya\u011f\u0131 ise yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynak giri\u015fidir. Yerel se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi kaynak giri\u015fi durmu\u015f ve hatta \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 programa yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flayarak ve gerekli \u00f6nlemleri alarak yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynak giri\u015finin yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 hedefleniyor. Bu konuda ilk olumlu sonu\u00e7lar al\u0131n\u0131yor. Kredi notu art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da olumlu geli\u015fmelerdir.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>4. Merkez Bankas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>TCMB, 2023 haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren para politikas\u0131n\u0131 kademeli olarak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Politika faizini y\u00fczde 50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti. Kredi geni\u015flemesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. TL likiditesini de azaltt\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131, bu \u00f6nemlerini muhtemelen y\u0131l\u0131n son aylar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. \u0130lave olarak bireysel kredilerde ve kredi kartlar\u0131nda k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar bekleniyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan ilk gev\u015feme, en erken kas\u0131m veya aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda olabilecek. Enflasyon daha da y\u00fckselirse ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmalar da olabilecek. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>5. TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 yava\u015flayacak\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Program\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir hedefi, TL\u2019ye yeniden g\u00fcven, istikrar kazand\u0131rmakt\u0131r. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fcven ve istikrar k\u0131smen kazan\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak yerel se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemde TL\u2019ye g\u00fcven kayboldu ve TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ve program\u0131n devam\u0131 ile yerel se\u00e7imlerden sonra ise TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma program\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm gerekleri ile uygulanmas\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ve enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flanmas\u0131 halinde TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 da giderek yava\u015flayacak. TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 h\u0131z\u0131nda yerle\u015fik hane halklar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden TL\u2019ye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ile yabanc\u0131 kaynak giri\u015finin miktar\u0131 da etkili olacak.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>6. Reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikler<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>May\u0131s ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k ve \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemleri reel sekt\u00f6r \u00fczerinde iki y\u00f6nden etkili olacak. Birincisi, i\u00e7 talepte belirgin bir yava\u015flama olas\u0131d\u0131r. Mevsimsellik etkisi yava\u015flamay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek. Nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 azalacak. Di\u011fer yandan, finansman olanaklar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek finansman maliyetleri hem i\u015fleri yava\u015flatacak hem de \u00f6deme\/tahsilat s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 yaratabilecek. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda konkordato ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z \u00e7eklerde art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ve alacaklar\u0131n etkin y\u00f6netimine \u00f6nem verilmeli. \u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>SON S\u00d6Z:<\/span><\/strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0Ekonomi program\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na da ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ilkbahar-doneminde-ekonomik-beklentiler","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1715547600KVYzI8sXunRPkMc.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":6086,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":51823,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":51697,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130lkbahar d\u00f6neminde ekonomik beklentiler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"<p id=\"isPasted\" style=\"margin: 0cm 0cm 0.0001pt; line-height: normal; font-size: 15px; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; text-align: right;\"><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Yerel se\u00e7imleri de geride b\u0131rakt\u0131ktan sonra a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n ekonomiye verilece\u011fi ilkbahar aylar\u0131n\u0131 ya\u015famaya ba\u015flad\u0131k. Yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda da enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, faiz indirim takvimleri ile toparlanma beklentileri izleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>1. D\u00fcnyada enflasyonlar farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor, faiz indirimleri \u00f6teleniyor\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Enflasyondaki genel geli\u015fmeler ABD, Euro b\u00f6lgesi ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de farkl\u0131 e\u011filimleri ortaya koydu. ABD\u2019de enflasyon \u00fc\u00e7 ay \u00fcst \u00fcste y\u00fckselerek y\u00fczde 3.5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yaz aylar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrece\u011fi endi\u015fesi bulunuyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk faiz indirimi eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar \u00f6telendi. Euro b\u00f6lgesinde enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kan\u0131tlar\u0131 giderek art\u0131yor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle haziran ay\u0131nda 25 baz puan ile ilk faiz indirimini yapacak. Y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda da 2-3 faiz indirimi daha bekleniyor. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n da eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda ilk faiz indirimini yapaca\u011f\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l sonuna kadar 1 faiz indirimi daha yapabilece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>2. B\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellendi. \u00d6zellikle ABD\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin halen g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmas\u0131 g\u00fcncellemeye neden oldu. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 2.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 1.6\u2019dan y\u00fczde 1.7\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kacak. ABD\u2019de 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2.7, Euro b\u00f6lgesinde y\u00fczde 0.8, Almanya\u2019da y\u00fczde 0.2 ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019de y\u00fczde 0.5 olarak tahmin ediliyor. Faiz indirimleri b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc destekleyecektir. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.3 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 4.2\u2019dir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>3. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ekonomi program\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilecek\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 ekonomi y\u00f6netimi aynen devam ediyor ve ekonomi program\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilerek s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclecek. Program\u0131n bundan sonraki beklenen \u00f6nemli aya\u011f\u0131 ise kamu maliyesinde s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmad\u0131r. \u00d6zellikle kamu harcamalar\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma bekleniyor. Maliye politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ile program\u0131n i\u00e7 talepte dengelenme, enflasyonda gerileme ve cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 hedeflerine daha \u00e7abuk ula\u015f\u0131labilecek. Yap\u0131sal reformlarda da beklentiler bulunuyor. Program\u0131n bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli aya\u011f\u0131 ise yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynak giri\u015fidir. Yerel se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi kaynak giri\u015fi durmu\u015f ve hatta \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 programa yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flayarak ve gerekli \u00f6nlemleri alarak yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynak giri\u015finin yeniden ba\u015flamas\u0131 hedefleniyor. Bu konuda ilk olumlu sonu\u00e7lar al\u0131n\u0131yor. Kredi notu art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da olumlu geli\u015fmelerdir.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>4. Merkez Bankas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>TCMB, 2023 haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren para politikas\u0131n\u0131 kademeli olarak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131. Politika faizini y\u00fczde 50\u2019ye y\u00fckseltti. Kredi geni\u015flemesini s\u0131n\u0131rlad\u0131. TL likiditesini de azaltt\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131, bu \u00f6nemlerini muhtemelen y\u0131l\u0131n son aylar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. \u0130lave olarak bireysel kredilerde ve kredi kartlar\u0131nda k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar bekleniyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan ilk gev\u015feme, en erken kas\u0131m veya aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda olabilecek. Enflasyon daha da y\u00fckselirse ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmalar da olabilecek. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>5. TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 yava\u015flayacak\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>Program\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir hedefi, TL\u2019ye yeniden g\u00fcven, istikrar kazand\u0131rmakt\u0131r. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda g\u00fcven ve istikrar k\u0131smen kazan\u0131lmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak yerel se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemde TL\u2019ye g\u00fcven kayboldu ve TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 h\u0131zland\u0131. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ve program\u0131n devam\u0131 ile yerel se\u00e7imlerden sonra ise TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma program\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcm gerekleri ile uygulanmas\u0131, cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ve enflasyonda kal\u0131c\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f sa\u011flanmas\u0131 halinde TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 da giderek yava\u015flayacak. TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 h\u0131z\u0131nda yerle\u015fik hane halklar\u0131n\u0131n yeniden TL\u2019ye d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc ile yabanc\u0131 kaynak giri\u015finin miktar\u0131 da etkili olacak.<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>6. Reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikler<\/span><\/strong><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>May\u0131s ay\u0131nda a\u00e7\u0131k ve \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemleri reel sekt\u00f6r \u00fczerinde iki y\u00f6nden etkili olacak. Birincisi, i\u00e7 talepte belirgin bir yava\u015flama olas\u0131d\u0131r. Mevsimsellik etkisi yava\u015flamay\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayabilecek. Nakit ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 azalacak. Di\u011fer yandan, finansman olanaklar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek finansman maliyetleri hem i\u015fleri yava\u015flatacak hem de \u00f6deme\/tahsilat s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 yaratabilecek. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda konkordato ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z \u00e7eklerde art\u0131\u015f\u0131n s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. May\u0131s ay\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131na ve alacaklar\u0131n etkin y\u00f6netimine \u00f6nem verilmeli. \u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0<\/span><\/p><p style='margin-top:0cm;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt;margin-left:0cm;line-height:normal;font-size:15px;font-family:\"Calibri\",sans-serif;'><strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>SON S\u00d6Z:<\/span><\/strong><span style='font-size:16px;font-family:\"Helvetica\",sans-serif;'>\u00a0Ekonomi program\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na da ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ilkbahar-doneminde-ekonomik-beklentiler","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1715547600KVYzI8sXunRPkMc.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1715547600KVYzI8sXunRPkMc.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":6086,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}