{"status":true,"post":{"id":21826,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:12:52","created_at":"2020-04-16T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:12:52.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":21826,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130lk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 6","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

K\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131yla proaktif bir m\u00fccadele sergileyen T\u00fcrkiye'nin geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z birinci \u00e7eyrek verileriyle 2020'ye h\u0131zl\u0131 bir giri\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Mart ay\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131ndan itibaren al\u0131nan tedbirler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sanayi \u00fcretiminde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 3 d\u00fczeyinde kalsa dahi ki, ben en az y\u00fczde 5 bekliyorum. Sanayi \u00fcretiminin ilk iki aydaki ortalama y\u00fczde 7.6'n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki performans\u0131, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n minimum y\u00fczde 6 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, hatta y\u0131la y\u00fczde 7'ye yak\u0131n bir GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131yla ba\u015flama ihtimalimizin dahi hayli kuvvetli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

Bu nedenle Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131'n\u0131n k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 olmasa, bu hafta Washington'da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi gereken geleneksel ilkbahar toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde her zaman d\u00fcnya kamuoyu ve uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi \u00e7evreleriyle payla\u015f\u0131lan ' D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu'nda (WEO) da 2020'de Euro B\u00f6lgesi'nin y\u00fczde 7.5, Almanya'n\u0131n y\u00fczde 7, t\u00fcm AB'nin y\u00fczde 7.1, orta ve do\u011fu Avrupa'n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5.2, Rusya'n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5.5 oran\u0131nda bir GSYH daralmas\u0131 ya\u015famas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, ayn\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4.8-5 band\u0131nda tutuldu. ABD'nin GSYH daralmas\u0131 y\u00fczde 5.9, Japonya i\u00e7in y\u00fczde -5.2, Kanada i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 6.1 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

REEL KES\u0130M G\u00dcVEN ENDEKS\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020'nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 7'ye dahi yak\u0131n bir oranda \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 teyit edecek bir di\u011fer detay da mart ay\u0131 reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi verileri. Alt detaylara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mart ay\u0131 i\u00e7in fabrikaya gelen sipari\u015flerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir azalma oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eden imalat sanayi firmalar\u0131m\u0131z, ocak-mart d\u00f6neminde, \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in kuvvetli bir sipari\u015f hacmine dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015fler. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, mamul mal stokunda ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir azalma s\u00f6z konusu olmu\u015f. Yani firmalar, bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde vir\u00fcsle m\u00fccadeleye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak hareketlenen talep nedeniyle stoklar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 da eritmi\u015fler.<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda toplam sipari\u015f, ocak ay\u0131ndan itibaren s\u0131ras\u0131yla 100.8, 102 ve 101.5 puan olarak seyretmi\u015f. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tablo. \u0130malat sanayinin mart ay\u0131n\u0131 etkili bir \u015fekilde ge\u00e7irmesi nedeniyle 100 puan ve \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 gereken reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi de\u011feri, koronavir\u00fcsle m\u00fccadelenin t\u00fcm etkilerine ra\u011fmen, 99.7 puan ile 100 puana \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir seviyede mart ay\u0131n\u0131 tamamlam\u0131\u015f durumda. Nitekim, y\u0131la y\u00fczde 75.5 d\u00fczeyinde bir kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131yla ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olan imalat sanayi, \u015fubat ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 76, mart ay\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 75.3'l\u00fck bir kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131yla \u00fcretimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

\u00dcRET\u0130M VER\u0130S\u0130NDE G\u00dc\u00c7L\u00dc S\u0130NYALLER<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Mevsimsel etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan ocak, \u015fubat ve mart ay\u0131 imalat sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131 2019'da s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 75, y\u00fczde 76.1 ve y\u00fczde 76.6 olarak \u015fekillendi. 2020'de ayn\u0131 oranlar s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 75.8, y\u00fczde 76.6 ve y\u00fczde 76.2 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve mart ay\u0131 \u00fcretim verisinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelece\u011fine dair ipucu verdi. 2020'nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde ba\u015flay\u0131p \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte yeniden pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6n\u00fcp, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131'n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini bir kez daha, 2019'da oldu\u011fu gibi bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

HEDEF 'KEND\u0130 KEND\u0130NE YETEB\u0130LME'<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye d\u00fcnya imalat sanayinde 190 y\u0131ldan beri var olan, bilhassa son 40 y\u0131lda iddias\u0131n\u0131 daha da art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f bir \u00fclke. T\u00fcrkiye'nin 150 milyar dolara ula\u015fan sanayi \u00fcretimi d\u00fcnyada 155 \u00fclkenin GSYH'sinden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck. D\u00fcnya imalat sanayi \u00fcretiminde en b\u00fcy\u00fck 16. \u00fclkeyiz. Tayland, \u0130svi\u00e7re, \u0130rlanda, Malezya, Hollanda, Arjantin, Avustralya gibi \u00fclkelerin y\u00fczde 50, y\u00fczde 100, hatta y\u00fczde 150 \u00fczerinde bir imalat sanayi \u00fcretiminden s\u00f6z ediyoruz T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in.<\/span><\/p>

Bu nedenle Sanayi ve Teknoloji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131'n\u0131n te\u015fkilat yap\u0131lanmas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirilerek, 2 yeni genel m\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fck kurul<\/span>du<\/span>,<\/span> 3 genel m\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fck de d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/span>Bakanl\u0131\u011fa, 'milli', '\u00f6zg\u00fcn' ve 'y\u00fcksek teknolojili' \u00fcretim i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli g\u00f6revler \u00fcstlenmesini sa\u011flayacak d\u00fczenleme, T\u00fcrkiye'nin imalat sanayi ve milli gelirinin toplam katma de\u011ferini b\u00fcy\u00fctmek ve ihracat\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7erisinde y\u00fcksek katma de\u011ferli \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak ad\u0131na kritik \u00f6nemde.<\/span><\/p>

Koronavir\u00fcs k\u00fcresel salg\u0131n\u0131, \u00fclkelerin 'milli ve yerli' sermayeye dayal\u0131 \u00fcretimle, 'kendi kendine yetebilen' ekonomi olmalar\u0131n\u0131n gereklili\u011fi noktas\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir uyan\u0131\u015f\u0131 beraberinde getirdi. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 'mutlak \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck' ve 'kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck' tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden \u015fekillendirece\u011fi yeni bir d\u00f6neme y\u00fcr\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"ilk-ceyrek-buyume-yuzde-6","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130lk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 6","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":851,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":21925,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":21826,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130lk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 6","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

K\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131yla proaktif bir m\u00fccadele sergileyen T\u00fcrkiye'nin geride b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z birinci \u00e7eyrek verileriyle 2020'ye h\u0131zl\u0131 bir giri\u015f yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Mart ay\u0131n\u0131n ortas\u0131ndan itibaren al\u0131nan tedbirler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, sanayi \u00fcretiminde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 3 d\u00fczeyinde kalsa dahi ki, ben en az y\u00fczde 5 bekliyorum. Sanayi \u00fcretiminin ilk iki aydaki ortalama y\u00fczde 7.6'n\u0131n \u00fczerindeki performans\u0131, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n minimum y\u00fczde 6 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, hatta y\u0131la y\u00fczde 7'ye yak\u0131n bir GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131yla ba\u015flama ihtimalimizin dahi hayli kuvvetli oldu\u011funa i\u015faret ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

Bu nedenle Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131'n\u0131n k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131 olmasa, bu hafta Washington'da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi gereken geleneksel ilkbahar toplant\u0131lar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde her zaman d\u00fcnya kamuoyu ve uluslararas\u0131 ekonomi \u00e7evreleriyle payla\u015f\u0131lan ' D\u00fcnya Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu'nda (WEO) da 2020'de Euro B\u00f6lgesi'nin y\u00fczde 7.5, Almanya'n\u0131n y\u00fczde 7, t\u00fcm AB'nin y\u00fczde 7.1, orta ve do\u011fu Avrupa'n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5.2, Rusya'n\u0131n y\u00fczde 5.5 oran\u0131nda bir GSYH daralmas\u0131 ya\u015famas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcrken, ayn\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 4.8-5 band\u0131nda tutuldu. ABD'nin GSYH daralmas\u0131 y\u00fczde 5.9, Japonya i\u00e7in y\u00fczde -5.2, Kanada i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 6.1 olarak \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

REEL KES\u0130M G\u00dcVEN ENDEKS\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2020'nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin y\u00fczde 7'ye dahi yak\u0131n bir oranda \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131 teyit edecek bir di\u011fer detay da mart ay\u0131 reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi verileri. Alt detaylara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, mart ay\u0131 i\u00e7in fabrikaya gelen sipari\u015flerde s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir azalma oldu\u011funa i\u015faret eden imalat sanayi firmalar\u0131m\u0131z, ocak-mart d\u00f6neminde, \u00fc\u00e7 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6nem i\u00e7in kuvvetli bir sipari\u015f hacmine dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015fler. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, mamul mal stokunda ise s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir azalma s\u00f6z konusu olmu\u015f. Yani firmalar, bir \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde vir\u00fcsle m\u00fccadeleye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak hareketlenen talep nedeniyle stoklar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 da eritmi\u015fler.<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda toplam sipari\u015f, ocak ay\u0131ndan itibaren s\u0131ras\u0131yla 100.8, 102 ve 101.5 puan olarak seyretmi\u015f. Bu g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir tablo. \u0130malat sanayinin mart ay\u0131n\u0131 etkili bir \u015fekilde ge\u00e7irmesi nedeniyle 100 puan ve \u00fczerinde olmas\u0131 gereken reel kesim g\u00fcven endeksi de\u011feri, koronavir\u00fcsle m\u00fccadelenin t\u00fcm etkilerine ra\u011fmen, 99.7 puan ile 100 puana \u00e7ok yak\u0131n bir seviyede mart ay\u0131n\u0131 tamamlam\u0131\u015f durumda. Nitekim, y\u0131la y\u00fczde 75.5 d\u00fczeyinde bir kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131yla ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f olan imalat sanayi, \u015fubat ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 76, mart ay\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 75.3'l\u00fck bir kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131yla \u00fcretimini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

\u00dcRET\u0130M VER\u0130S\u0130NDE G\u00dc\u00c7L\u00dc S\u0130NYALLER<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Mevsimsel etkilerden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olan ocak, \u015fubat ve mart ay\u0131 imalat sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oranlar\u0131 2019'da s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 75, y\u00fczde 76.1 ve y\u00fczde 76.6 olarak \u015fekillendi. 2020'de ayn\u0131 oranlar s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 75.8, y\u00fczde 76.6 ve y\u00fczde 76.2 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve mart ay\u0131 \u00fcretim verisinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelece\u011fine dair ipucu verdi. 2020'nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde ba\u015flay\u0131p \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte yeniden pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6n\u00fcp, d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte de g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile IMF ve D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131'n\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini bir kez daha, 2019'da oldu\u011fu gibi bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131karaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

HEDEF 'KEND\u0130 KEND\u0130NE YETEB\u0130LME'<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye d\u00fcnya imalat sanayinde 190 y\u0131ldan beri var olan, bilhassa son 40 y\u0131lda iddias\u0131n\u0131 daha da art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f bir \u00fclke. T\u00fcrkiye'nin 150 milyar dolara ula\u015fan sanayi \u00fcretimi d\u00fcnyada 155 \u00fclkenin GSYH'sinden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck. D\u00fcnya imalat sanayi \u00fcretiminde en b\u00fcy\u00fck 16. \u00fclkeyiz. Tayland, \u0130svi\u00e7re, \u0130rlanda, Malezya, Hollanda, Arjantin, Avustralya gibi \u00fclkelerin y\u00fczde 50, y\u00fczde 100, hatta y\u00fczde 150 \u00fczerinde bir imalat sanayi \u00fcretiminden s\u00f6z ediyoruz T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in.<\/span><\/p>

Bu nedenle Sanayi ve Teknoloji Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131'n\u0131n te\u015fkilat yap\u0131lanmas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirilerek, 2 yeni genel m\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fck kurul<\/span>du<\/span>,<\/span> 3 genel m\u00fcd\u00fcrl\u00fck de d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/span>Bakanl\u0131\u011fa, 'milli', '\u00f6zg\u00fcn' ve 'y\u00fcksek teknolojili' \u00fcretim i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli g\u00f6revler \u00fcstlenmesini sa\u011flayacak d\u00fczenleme, T\u00fcrkiye'nin imalat sanayi ve milli gelirinin toplam katma de\u011ferini b\u00fcy\u00fctmek ve ihracat\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7erisinde y\u00fcksek katma de\u011ferli \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak ad\u0131na kritik \u00f6nemde.<\/span><\/p>

Koronavir\u00fcs k\u00fcresel salg\u0131n\u0131, \u00fclkelerin 'milli ve yerli' sermayeye dayal\u0131 \u00fcretimle, 'kendi kendine yetebilen' ekonomi olmalar\u0131n\u0131n gereklili\u011fi noktas\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir uyan\u0131\u015f\u0131 beraberinde getirdi. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 'mutlak \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck' ve 'kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmal\u0131 \u00fcst\u00fcnl\u00fck' tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131 yeniden \u015fekillendirece\u011fi yeni bir d\u00f6neme y\u00fcr\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"ilk-ceyrek-buyume-yuzde-6","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130lk \u00e7eyrek b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 6","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":851,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}