{"status":true,"post":{"id":54416,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-08-19 08:00:00","created_at":"2024-08-19T05:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-09-19T07:11:55.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":54416,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130ktisadi so\u011fuma kendini hissettiriyor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 15 ay ge\u00e7ti. \u0130lk 9-10 ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te bu politika de\u011fi\u015fiminin etkileri tam olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Gayet normal bir durum bu. Zira, para politikas\u0131 etkilerini gecikmeli bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6sterir. Bahar\u0131n ortas\u0131ndan itibaren s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n iktisadi faaliyet so\u011futucu etkileri kendini iyiden iyiye hissettirir oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130SO\u2019nun a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 imalat sanayi PMI endeksi, son 5 ayd\u0131r e\u015fik de\u011ferin alt\u0131nda. Temmuz ay\u0131 itibariyle imalat sanayindeki t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6rlerde yeni sipari\u015fler yava\u015flad\u0131. Sanayi \u00fcretim rakamlar\u0131 da hem ayl\u0131k hem de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ilk etapta sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne k\u0131yasla daha diren\u00e7li bir performans g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Ancak, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik son rakamlar, so\u011fuman\u0131n buralara da sirayet etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn finansmana eri\u015fimde ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar, piyasalardaki nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkiliyor. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z \u00e7ek oranlar\u0131 2018\u2019deki kur \u015foku d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde olsa da son haftalarda art\u0131\u015f trendine girdi. Temmuz 2024 itibariyle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z \u00e7ek oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde bu oran y\u00fczde 1\u2019in alt\u0131ndayd\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u00c7 P\u0130YASADA YAVA\u015eLAMA<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u00e7 piyasadaki yava\u015flama, i\u015fsizlik rakamlar\u0131na da yans\u0131d\u0131. Artan faizlere ra\u011fmen bir s\u00fcre daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini korumay\u0131 ba\u015faran i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, haziran ay\u0131nda 0.7 puan artarak y\u00fczde 9.2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Zamana ba\u011fl\u0131 eksik istihdam, potansiyel i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve i\u015fsizlerden olu\u015fan at\u0131l i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc oran\u0131 ise 3.8 puan artt\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 29.2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Bu, Haziran 2020\u2019den bu yana kaydedilen en y\u00fcksek at\u0131l i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc oran\u0131 olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7ti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonominin talep taraf\u0131, arz ko\u015fullar\u0131na k\u0131yasla canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre korudu. Ama art\u0131k talep g\u00f6stergeleri de h\u0131z kayb\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve kredi kart\u0131 harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131 geriliyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son enflasyon raporunda payla\u015f\u0131lan grafik, vatanda\u015flar\u0131n zorunlu harcamalar d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ihtiyari harcamalarda frene bast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne seriyor. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 toplumdaki her kesimi benzer oranlarda etkilemiyor. Hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve iktisadi so\u011fuman\u0131n olumsuz etkileri en \u00e7ok dar ve sabit gelirli vatanda\u015flar\u0131 vuruyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ENFLASYONLA M\u00dcCADELE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015flarken bunlar\u0131n ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyorduk. Zaten ana ama\u00e7 da ekonomiyi so\u011futarak enflasyonu dizginleyebilmekti. 2021-2023 d\u00f6neminde uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z politikalar neticesinde ekonomi, potansiyelinin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu d\u00f6nemde d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015flar da ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Sonu\u00e7ta enflasyon uzun zamand\u0131r g\u00f6rmedi\u011fimiz seviyelere y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ederken iktisadi faaliyetleri belli oranda so\u011futman\u0131z gerekiyor. S\u0131f\u0131r maliyetli bir enflasyonla m\u00fccadele program\u0131 olamaz. Ama iktisat politikalar\u0131yla bu maliyetin seviyesini, zamana ve toplumdaki kesimlere g\u00f6re da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 etkileme g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahip oldu\u011fumuz da bir ba\u015fka ger\u00e7ek. Bunun i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k derecesini ve s\u00fcresini iyi ayarlamal\u0131y\u0131z, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na yap\u0131sal politikalarla destek olmal\u0131y\u0131z ve dezenflasyonun maliyetinin toplumda\u00a0<\/span>hakkaniyetli bi\u00e7imde da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamal\u0131y\u0131z. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"iktisadi-soguma-kendini-hissettiriyor-","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1724014800r9xabWYnAaPWiLm.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1026,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":54542,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":54416,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130ktisadi so\u011fuma kendini hissettiriyor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan yakla\u015f\u0131k 15 ay ge\u00e7ti. \u0130lk 9-10 ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te bu politika de\u011fi\u015fiminin etkileri tam olarak ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Gayet normal bir durum bu. Zira, para politikas\u0131 etkilerini gecikmeli bi\u00e7imde g\u00f6sterir. Bahar\u0131n ortas\u0131ndan itibaren s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n iktisadi faaliyet so\u011futucu etkileri kendini iyiden iyiye hissettirir oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130SO\u2019nun a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 imalat sanayi PMI endeksi, son 5 ayd\u0131r e\u015fik de\u011ferin alt\u0131nda. Temmuz ay\u0131 itibariyle imalat sanayindeki t\u00fcm sekt\u00f6rlerde yeni sipari\u015fler yava\u015flad\u0131. Sanayi \u00fcretim rakamlar\u0131 da hem ayl\u0131k hem de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 ilk etapta sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne k\u0131yasla daha diren\u00e7li bir performans g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Ancak, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik son rakamlar, so\u011fuman\u0131n buralara da sirayet etti\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn finansmana eri\u015fimde ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar, piyasalardaki nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkiliyor. Kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z \u00e7ek oranlar\u0131 2018\u2019deki kur \u015foku d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyelerde olsa da son haftalarda art\u0131\u015f trendine girdi. Temmuz 2024 itibariyle kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z \u00e7ek oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019i g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6neminde bu oran y\u00fczde 1\u2019in alt\u0131ndayd\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u00c7 P\u0130YASADA YAVA\u015eLAMA<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u00e7 piyasadaki yava\u015flama, i\u015fsizlik rakamlar\u0131na da yans\u0131d\u0131. Artan faizlere ra\u011fmen bir s\u00fcre daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendini korumay\u0131 ba\u015faran i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131, haziran ay\u0131nda 0.7 puan artarak y\u00fczde 9.2\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Zamana ba\u011fl\u0131 eksik istihdam, potansiyel i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve i\u015fsizlerden olu\u015fan at\u0131l i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc oran\u0131 ise 3.8 puan artt\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 29.2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. Bu, Haziran 2020\u2019den bu yana kaydedilen en y\u00fcksek at\u0131l i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc oran\u0131 olarak kay\u0131tlara ge\u00e7ti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ekonominin talep taraf\u0131, arz ko\u015fullar\u0131na k\u0131yasla canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 daha uzun s\u00fcre korudu. Ama art\u0131k talep g\u00f6stergeleri de h\u0131z kayb\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Perakende sat\u0131\u015flar ve kredi kart\u0131 harcamalar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131 geriliyor. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n son enflasyon raporunda payla\u015f\u0131lan grafik, vatanda\u015flar\u0131n zorunlu harcamalar d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki ihtiyari harcamalarda frene bast\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne seriyor. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 toplumdaki her kesimi benzer oranlarda etkilemiyor. Hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve iktisadi so\u011fuman\u0131n olumsuz etkileri en \u00e7ok dar ve sabit gelirli vatanda\u015flar\u0131 vuruyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ENFLASYONLA M\u00dcCADELE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015flarken bunlar\u0131n ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 tahmin ediyorduk. Zaten ana ama\u00e7 da ekonomiyi so\u011futarak enflasyonu dizginleyebilmekti. 2021-2023 d\u00f6neminde uygulad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z politikalar neticesinde ekonomi, potansiyelinin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu d\u00f6nemde d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015flar da ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Sonu\u00e7ta enflasyon uzun zamand\u0131r g\u00f6rmedi\u011fimiz seviyelere y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ederken iktisadi faaliyetleri belli oranda so\u011futman\u0131z gerekiyor. S\u0131f\u0131r maliyetli bir enflasyonla m\u00fccadele program\u0131 olamaz. Ama iktisat politikalar\u0131yla bu maliyetin seviyesini, zamana ve toplumdaki kesimlere g\u00f6re da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 etkileme g\u00fcc\u00fcne sahip oldu\u011fumuz da bir ba\u015fka ger\u00e7ek. Bunun i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131l\u0131k derecesini ve s\u00fcresini iyi ayarlamal\u0131y\u0131z, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019na yap\u0131sal politikalarla destek olmal\u0131y\u0131z ve dezenflasyonun maliyetinin toplumda\u00a0<\/span>hakkaniyetli bi\u00e7imde da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamal\u0131y\u0131z. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"iktisadi-soguma-kendini-hissettiriyor-","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1724014800r9xabWYnAaPWiLm.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1724014800r9xabWYnAaPWiLm.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1026,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}