{"status":true,"post":{"id":57916,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-11-25 07:44:00","created_at":"2024-11-25T04:44:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-11-25T04:44:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":57916,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130kinci Trump d\u00f6neminde k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi neler bekliyor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"

<\/span>Donald Trump, d\u00f6rt y\u0131l aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir kez daha ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturmak i\u00e7in g\u00fcn say\u0131yor. Trump\u2019\u0131n ilk d\u00f6nemi, k\u00fcresel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a kaotik ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. G\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 oyan eylemler, ilk ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6nemine damgas\u0131n\u0131 vurmu\u015ftu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Asl\u0131nda Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 tak\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 korumac\u0131 tutum, Amerikan m\u00fcesses nizam\u0131 i\u00e7in bir alarm i\u015flevi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. O d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fananlar, ABD\u2019yi \u00c7in ekonomisinin y\u00fckseli\u015fine kar\u015f\u0131 her zamankinden daha dikkatli olmaya sevk etti. Mevcut Ba\u015fkan Joe Biden, Trump\u2019\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde devreye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarifeleri kald\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi \u00c7in\u2019in teknolojik geli\u015fimini farkl\u0131 y\u00f6ntemler \u00fczerinden de yava\u015flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Trump, Meksika\u2019dan Kanada\u2019ya, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019den Fransa\u2019ya kadar bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke ile ekonomik ili\u015fkiler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir ve istikral\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 y\u00fcr\u00fctmedi. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de durum benzerdi. Trump\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ilk iki y\u0131l\u0131nda gerilen ili\u015fkiler, 2018\u2019deki kur \u015fokunu tetikleyen unsurlardan biri olmu\u015ftu. Trump, sonras\u0131nda ise T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik tavr\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015f ve iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ticaret hacmini art\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00dcRESEL T\u0130CARET \u0130\u00c7\u0130N ZORLU D\u00d6NEME\u00c7<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Peki, Trump\u2019\u0131n ikinci d\u00f6neminde k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi neler bekliyor? \u00d6ncelikle Trump\u2019\u0131n ticari korumac\u0131l\u0131ktan vazge\u00e7mesini beklememek laz\u0131m. Trump, ABD\u2019nin y\u00fcksek d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdi\u011fi \u00fclkelere kar\u015f\u0131 elindeki t\u00fcm kozlar\u0131 oynayarak ticaret rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 daha dengeli hale getirebilecek anla\u015fmalar yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Tabii ki \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok daha agresif olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ticareti zorlu bir d\u00f6rt y\u0131l bekliyor. Ancak ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ticaret ve teknoloji sava\u015flar\u0131, bir taraftan da belli \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in yeni f\u0131rsat pencereleri a\u00e7abilir. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan T\u00fcrkiye, ABD\u2019ye daha fazla ihracat yapmak i\u00e7in alan bulabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KISA VADEL\u0130 DALGALANMALARA D\u0130KKAT!<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Fed politikalar\u0131, faiz ve di\u011fer g\u00fcncel ekonomik meselelere dair Trump\u2019\u0131n sosyal medya \u00fczerinden yapaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n, k\u00fcresel finans piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli dalgalanmalar\u0131 tetiklemesi s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r. Trump, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya inmesi i\u00e7in Fed\u2019e bask\u0131 yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir. B\u00f6yle bir senaryo, hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131na yarayabilir. Trump\u2019\u0131n beraberinde getirdi\u011fi bunca belirsizlik, bir taraftan da alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

JEOPOL\u0130T\u0130K R\u0130SKLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Biden d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya daha istikral\u0131 ve bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l olmad\u0131. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgal giri\u015fimi ve \u0130srail\u2019in Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki katliamlar\u0131, jeopolitik riskleri d\u00fcnyan\u0131n uzun zamand\u0131r al\u0131\u015f\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Maalesef sava\u015f ortam\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ve ac\u0131 bedelini masum insanlar \u00f6d\u00fcyor. Jeopolitik riskler bir yandan da ekonomiler \u00fczerinde belirsizliklere ve istikrars\u0131zl\u0131klara yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Trump, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturunca sava\u015flar\u0131 sona erdirece\u011fi taahh\u00fcd\u00fcnde bulundu. \u00c7ok kolay bir i\u015f de\u011fil. Hele ki \u0130srail lobisi, Amerikan siyasetini bu kadar etki alt\u0131na alm\u0131\u015fken. Yine de Trump\u2019\u0131n Biden\u2019a k\u0131yasla daha \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm odakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini dikkate almak gerekiyor. Sava\u015flar\u0131n ak\u0131beti, Trump\u2019\u0131n ikinci d\u00f6neminde k\u00fcresel ekonominin rotas\u0131 \u00fczerinde olduk\u00e7a belirleyici olacakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr<\/strong><\/p>","slug":"ikinci-trump-doneminde-kuresel-ekonomiyi-neler-bekliyor","tags":null,"meta_title":"\u0130kinci Trump d\u00f6neminde k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi neler bekliyor?","meta_description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1732482000l5fQDwMXy8q3tN2.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":58042,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":57916,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130kinci Trump d\u00f6neminde k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi neler bekliyor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"

<\/span>Donald Trump, d\u00f6rt y\u0131l aran\u0131n ard\u0131ndan bir kez daha ABD Ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturmak i\u00e7in g\u00fcn say\u0131yor. Trump\u2019\u0131n ilk d\u00f6nemi, k\u00fcresel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olduk\u00e7a kaotik ge\u00e7mi\u015fti. G\u00fcmr\u00fck tarifeleri, yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 oyan eylemler, ilk ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6nemine damgas\u0131n\u0131 vurmu\u015ftu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Asl\u0131nda Trump\u2019\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 tak\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 korumac\u0131 tutum, Amerikan m\u00fcesses nizam\u0131 i\u00e7in bir alarm i\u015flevi g\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. O d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fananlar, ABD\u2019yi \u00c7in ekonomisinin y\u00fckseli\u015fine kar\u015f\u0131 her zamankinden daha dikkatli olmaya sevk etti. Mevcut Ba\u015fkan Joe Biden, Trump\u2019\u0131n ilk d\u00f6neminde devreye ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 tarifeleri kald\u0131rmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 gibi \u00c7in\u2019in teknolojik geli\u015fimini farkl\u0131 y\u00f6ntemler \u00fczerinden de yava\u015flatmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Trump, Meksika\u2019dan Kanada\u2019ya, G\u00fcney Kore\u2019den Fransa\u2019ya kadar bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke ile ekonomik ili\u015fkiler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00e7ok \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilir ve istikral\u0131 bir s\u00fcre\u00e7 y\u00fcr\u00fctmedi. T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de durum benzerdi. Trump\u2019\u0131n ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ilk iki y\u0131l\u0131nda gerilen ili\u015fkiler, 2018\u2019deki kur \u015fokunu tetikleyen unsurlardan biri olmu\u015ftu. Trump, sonras\u0131nda ise T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye y\u00f6nelik tavr\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmi\u015f ve iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ticaret hacmini art\u0131rmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00dcRESEL T\u0130CARET \u0130\u00c7\u0130N ZORLU D\u00d6NEME\u00c7<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Peki, Trump\u2019\u0131n ikinci d\u00f6neminde k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi neler bekliyor? \u00d6ncelikle Trump\u2019\u0131n ticari korumac\u0131l\u0131ktan vazge\u00e7mesini beklememek laz\u0131m. Trump, ABD\u2019nin y\u00fcksek d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 verdi\u011fi \u00fclkelere kar\u015f\u0131 elindeki t\u00fcm kozlar\u0131 oynayarak ticaret rakamlar\u0131n\u0131 daha dengeli hale getirebilecek anla\u015fmalar yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015facakt\u0131r. Tabii ki \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 \u00e7ok daha agresif olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ticareti zorlu bir d\u00f6rt y\u0131l bekliyor. Ancak ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ticaret ve teknoloji sava\u015flar\u0131, bir taraftan da belli \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in yeni f\u0131rsat pencereleri a\u00e7abilir. Bu a\u00e7\u0131dan T\u00fcrkiye, ABD\u2019ye daha fazla ihracat yapmak i\u00e7in alan bulabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KISA VADEL\u0130 DALGALANMALARA D\u0130KKAT!<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Fed politikalar\u0131, faiz ve di\u011fer g\u00fcncel ekonomik meselelere dair Trump\u2019\u0131n sosyal medya \u00fczerinden yapaca\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n, k\u00fcresel finans piyasalar\u0131 \u00fczerinde k\u0131sa vadeli dalgalanmalar\u0131 tetiklemesi s\u00fcrpriz olmayacakt\u0131r. Trump, faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n daha h\u0131zl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya inmesi i\u00e7in Fed\u2019e bask\u0131 yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir. B\u00f6yle bir senaryo, hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131na yarayabilir. Trump\u2019\u0131n beraberinde getirdi\u011fi bunca belirsizlik, bir taraftan da alt\u0131n\u0131n ons fiyat\u0131n\u0131n bir s\u00fcre daha y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

JEOPOL\u0130T\u0130K R\u0130SKLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Biden d\u00f6neminde d\u00fcnya daha istikral\u0131 ve bar\u0131\u015f\u00e7\u0131l olmad\u0131. Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Ukrayna\u2019y\u0131 i\u015fgal giri\u015fimi ve \u0130srail\u2019in Ortado\u011fu\u2019daki katliamlar\u0131, jeopolitik riskleri d\u00fcnyan\u0131n uzun zamand\u0131r al\u0131\u015f\u0131k olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Maalesef sava\u015f ortam\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck ve ac\u0131 bedelini masum insanlar \u00f6d\u00fcyor. Jeopolitik riskler bir yandan da ekonomiler \u00fczerinde belirsizliklere ve istikrars\u0131zl\u0131klara yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Trump, ba\u015fkanl\u0131k koltu\u011funa oturunca sava\u015flar\u0131 sona erdirece\u011fi taahh\u00fcd\u00fcnde bulundu. \u00c7ok kolay bir i\u015f de\u011fil. Hele ki \u0130srail lobisi, Amerikan siyasetini bu kadar etki alt\u0131na alm\u0131\u015fken. Yine de Trump\u2019\u0131n Biden\u2019a k\u0131yasla daha \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm odakl\u0131 oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini dikkate almak gerekiyor. Sava\u015flar\u0131n ak\u0131beti, Trump\u2019\u0131n ikinci d\u00f6neminde k\u00fcresel ekonominin rotas\u0131 \u00fczerinde olduk\u00e7a belirleyici olacakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr<\/strong><\/p>","slug":"ikinci-trump-doneminde-kuresel-ekonomiyi-neler-bekliyor","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1732482000l5fQDwMXy8q3tN2.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1732482000l5fQDwMXy8q3tN2.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":"\u0130kinci Trump d\u00f6neminde k\u00fcresel ekonomiyi neler bekliyor?","meta_description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","meta_keywords":null,"view_count":0,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2024-12-25 07:30:11","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}