{"status":true,"post":{"id":53041,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-06-24 08:22:00","created_at":"2024-06-24T05:22:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-06-24T05:22:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":53041,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130hracatta neler oluyor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"


<\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, may\u0131s ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerini yay\u0131nlad\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu b\u00fcltene g\u00f6re, may\u0131s ay\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re ihracat y\u00fczde 11.4 art\u0131\u015fla 24,075 milyon dolara y\u00fckselirken, ithalat ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 10.3 d\u00fc\u015ferek 30,593 milyon dolara indi. Bu sayede, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 47.8 daralarak 6,518 milyon dolara geriledi. \u0130hracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131 da y\u00fczde 78.7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacmi, ithalattaki daralmadan dolay\u0131 y\u00fczde 1.9 azalarak 54 milyar 668 milyon dolara d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ayl\u0131k bazl\u0131 sipari\u015flerde kaymalar olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in d\u00f6nemsel olarak da bakal\u0131m. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 ocak-may\u0131s d\u00f6neminde ihracat y\u00fczde 4.5 art\u0131\u015fla 107 milyar dolara yakla\u015f\u0131rken, ithalat y\u00fczde 9.3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stererek 144 milyar civar\u0131na geriledi. D\u0131\u015f ticaret hacmi de bu verilere g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3.8 azald\u0131 ve 250 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. D\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesindeki a\u00e7\u0131k, ithalattaki daralmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fczde 3.8 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 74\u2019ler seviyesine y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00d6V\u0130Z S\u0130RK\u00dcLASYONU<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu durum, net bir \u015fekilde azalan ithalat nedeniyle d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n (d\u0131\u015f ticaret anlam\u0131nda) d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bize g\u00f6steriyor. Enerji ve alt\u0131n hari\u00e7 tutuldu\u011funda ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 91.7 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Neredeyse d\u0131\u015f ticarette d\u00f6viz sirk\u00fclasyonu ihracat ve ithalat aras\u0131nda kendini tamamlayabilir seviyesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Daha \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerde y\u00fczde 100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131rsak, yine ayn\u0131 yerlere do\u011fru gitmemizin i\u00e7eride d\u00f6viz arz\u0131n\u0131n da artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu durumda para ve sermaye piyasalar\u0131na gelmekte olan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131larla beraber d\u00f6viz arz\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddetini daha fazla hissedebiliriz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


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Unutmayal\u0131m ki, \u015fu ana kadar dolar\u0131n 30 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131na gelmemesinin sebebi, TCMB pozisyon d\u00fczeltmeye y\u00f6nelik al\u0131mlar\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak bu al\u0131mlar sonsuza kadar s\u00fcrmeyecek. Bir \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda belirtti\u011fimiz senaryolar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine g\u00f6re, TCMB ihtiya\u00e7 al\u0131mlar\u0131 bitince dolara gelen sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacak \u00f6nemli bir kitle olmayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131n\u0131n gelmesi s\u00fcrpriz olmayacak. Azalacak jeopolitik riskler de bu e\u011filimi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

\u00d6zellikle \u0130srail-Ukrayna ve Tayvan ile ilgili olumlu jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011finden giri\u015fler artabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130LK 3 \u00dcLKE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130hracatta ilk \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin Almanya, ABD ve \u0130ngiltere oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek, bu \u00fclke ekonomilerindeki geli\u015fmeler de d\u0131\u015f ticaretimize yans\u0131yacak. \u0130thalatta \u00c7in, Rusya ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc payla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Girdi anlam\u0131nda \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131, \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 anlam\u0131nda da Almanya, ABD ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir yap\u0131 var.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


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Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Rusya ile ticaret s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticarette rekabet\u00e7i olmam\u0131z\u0131 da zorlayan bir etkendir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde, i\u00e7 ticareti s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 tedbirler nedeniyle i\u00e7eride sanc\u0131l\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem olu\u015fsa da \u015firketlerin ihracat yollar\u0131 bulmas\u0131 ihracat kapasitemizi art\u0131r\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen bir d\u00f6nemde kredi almak son derece riskli bir i\u015ftir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc kredi ile al\u0131nan varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n de\u011feri, kredi ve faiz \u00f6demesi kadar bile artmayabilir. D\u0131\u015f ticarette ise d\u00fc\u015fme potansiyeli artan kurlara kar\u015f\u0131 tedbirli olmakta fayda var.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ihracatta-neler-oluyor","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1719176400NBuG2RUyvbc2Xne.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":10269,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":53167,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":53041,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130hracatta neler oluyor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"


<\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, may\u0131s ay\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerini yay\u0131nlad\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu b\u00fcltene g\u00f6re, may\u0131s ay\u0131nda ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re ihracat y\u00fczde 11.4 art\u0131\u015fla 24,075 milyon dolara y\u00fckselirken, ithalat ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 10.3 d\u00fc\u015ferek 30,593 milyon dolara indi. Bu sayede, d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 47.8 daralarak 6,518 milyon dolara geriledi. \u0130hracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131 da y\u00fczde 78.7\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi. G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere d\u0131\u015f ticaret hacmi, ithalattaki daralmadan dolay\u0131 y\u00fczde 1.9 azalarak 54 milyar 668 milyon dolara d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ayl\u0131k bazl\u0131 sipari\u015flerde kaymalar olabilece\u011fi i\u00e7in d\u00f6nemsel olarak da bakal\u0131m. 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 ocak-may\u0131s d\u00f6neminde ihracat y\u00fczde 4.5 art\u0131\u015fla 107 milyar dolara yakla\u015f\u0131rken, ithalat y\u00fczde 9.3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f g\u00f6stererek 144 milyar civar\u0131na geriledi. D\u0131\u015f ticaret hacmi de bu verilere g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3.8 azald\u0131 ve 250 milyar dolar civar\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. D\u0131\u015f ticaret dengesindeki a\u00e7\u0131k, ithalattaki daralmaya ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00fczde 3.8 azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 74\u2019ler seviyesine y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00d6V\u0130Z S\u0130RK\u00dcLASYONU<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu durum, net bir \u015fekilde azalan ithalat nedeniyle d\u00f6viz ihtiyac\u0131n\u0131n (d\u0131\u015f ticaret anlam\u0131nda) d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc bize g\u00f6steriyor. Enerji ve alt\u0131n hari\u00e7 tutuldu\u011funda ihracat\u0131n ithalat\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131lama oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 91.7 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Neredeyse d\u0131\u015f ticarette d\u00f6viz sirk\u00fclasyonu ihracat ve ithalat aras\u0131nda kendini tamamlayabilir seviyesine ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Daha \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerde y\u00fczde 100\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131rsak, yine ayn\u0131 yerlere do\u011fru gitmemizin i\u00e7eride d\u00f6viz arz\u0131n\u0131n da artmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu durumda para ve sermaye piyasalar\u0131na gelmekte olan yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131larla beraber d\u00f6viz arz\u0131n\u0131n \u015fiddetini daha fazla hissedebiliriz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Unutmayal\u0131m ki, \u015fu ana kadar dolar\u0131n 30 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131na gelmemesinin sebebi, TCMB pozisyon d\u00fczeltmeye y\u00f6nelik al\u0131mlar\u0131d\u0131r. Ancak bu al\u0131mlar sonsuza kadar s\u00fcrmeyecek. Bir \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131m\u0131zda belirtti\u011fimiz senaryolar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesine g\u00f6re, TCMB ihtiya\u00e7 al\u0131mlar\u0131 bitince dolara gelen sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131layacak \u00f6nemli bir kitle olmayaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131n\u0131n gelmesi s\u00fcrpriz olmayacak. Azalacak jeopolitik riskler de bu e\u011filimi h\u0131zland\u0131rabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

\u00d6zellikle \u0130srail-Ukrayna ve Tayvan ile ilgili olumlu jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler, risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rabilece\u011finden giri\u015fler artabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130LK 3 \u00dcLKE<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130hracatta ilk \u00fc\u00e7 \u00fclkenin Almanya, ABD ve \u0130ngiltere oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcrsek, bu \u00fclke ekonomilerindeki geli\u015fmeler de d\u0131\u015f ticaretimize yans\u0131yacak. \u0130thalatta \u00c7in, Rusya ve Almanya\u2019n\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc payla\u015fmas\u0131 \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli. Girdi anlam\u0131nda \u00c7in ve Rusya\u2019ya ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131, \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 anlam\u0131nda da Almanya, ABD ve \u0130ngiltere\u2019ye ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir yap\u0131 var.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Rusya ile ticaret s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 d\u0131\u015f ticarette rekabet\u00e7i olmam\u0131z\u0131 da zorlayan bir etkendir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde, i\u00e7 ticareti s\u0131n\u0131rlay\u0131c\u0131 tedbirler nedeniyle i\u00e7eride sanc\u0131l\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem olu\u015fsa da \u015firketlerin ihracat yollar\u0131 bulmas\u0131 ihracat kapasitemizi art\u0131r\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen bir d\u00f6nemde kredi almak son derece riskli bir i\u015ftir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc kredi ile al\u0131nan varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n de\u011feri, kredi ve faiz \u00f6demesi kadar bile artmayabilir. D\u0131\u015f ticarette ise d\u00fc\u015fme potansiyeli artan kurlara kar\u015f\u0131 tedbirli olmakta fayda var.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ihracatta-neler-oluyor","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1719176400NBuG2RUyvbc2Xne.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1719176400NBuG2RUyvbc2Xne.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":10269,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}