{"status":true,"post":{"id":35372,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 22:02:40","created_at":"2022-10-13T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T19:02:40.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":35372,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u0130\u00e7 piyasada bat\u0131daki gibi bir resesyon var m\u0131?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
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Temel makroekonomik politikalarda bat\u0131yla tamamen z\u0131t bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe sahibiz. Arz k\u00f6kenli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcretimi art\u0131rarak durdurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. \u0130\u015fin arz taraf\u0131nda tatl\u0131 rekabeti yakalayabilirsek ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131z. Bat\u0131da ise tam tersine arz yetersizli\u011fine talebi azaltarak reaksiyon vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir mant\u0131k var. Bu nedenle gerek ABD gerekse AB, s\u00fcrekli faiz art\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 halde enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 durduramad\u0131lar.<\/span>
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Enflasyonun arkas\u0131ndaki ana sebep, arz aksamalar\u0131 nedeniyle \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin t\u00fcketiciye eski d\u00fczeninde ula\u015famamas\u0131. Bu durumda talep, \u00fcretme sorunu ya\u015fayan \u00c7in\u2019den \u00fcreten T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye kay\u0131yor, ihracat rekorlar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rken bazen de rafta \u00fcr\u00fcn bulamayacak kadar i\u015fin dibine gidiliyor. O zaman da fiyatlarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131k.<\/span>
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\u00c7\u0130N NEDEN \u00dcRETEM\u0130YOR?<\/strong><\/span>
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Ana sebep s\u0131f\u0131r pandemi politikas\u0131 nedeniyle her an \u015fehir baz\u0131nda karantina ilan etmesi ve \u00fcretimi birden durdurmas\u0131d\u0131r. O zaman arz zincirinde ciddi aksamalar oluyor ve teslim tarihleri zorunlu olarak uzat\u0131l\u0131yor. <\/span>
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\u015eimdi Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle konulan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n etkisini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6zellikle AB, enerji darbo\u011faz\u0131 nedeniyle k\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fcretemeyecek noktaya do\u011fru gidiyor. O y\u00fczden de T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00fcretim \u00fcss\u00fc olan \u00fclkelere ihtiyac\u0131 her zamankinden daha fazla. <\/span>
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\u00c7in\u2019de yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde y\u00fcz\u00fcn \u00fczerinde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fclkemize de gelme ihtimalini iyi hesaplamal\u0131y\u0131z. \u00d6zellikle Yunanistan\u2019la sava\u015f \u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131rtkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n AB yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclkemize gelmekten vazge\u00e7irme amac\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z. Her \u015feyin bir zaman\u0131 var diyip, \u0130ngilizler gibi gizlice politikalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 uygulamam\u0131z pekala m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. <\/span>
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Global ekonomilerde i\u00e7 talep hen\u00fcz bask\u0131 alt\u0131na al\u0131namad\u0131. E\u011fer ba\u015far\u0131labilirse de ciddi resesyona girecekleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/span>
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Bizde ise genel duruma bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u00fcretimde, kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131nda, d\u0131\u015f ticarette her \u015feyin yolunda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak gerek kur gerekse global emtia fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00fccretli aleyhine bozmu\u015ftu. Bu durum toplumsal bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in bir tehdit olu\u015fturdu\u011fundan, \u00fccret ayarlamalar\u0131 en h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde yap\u0131larak bu yara sar\u0131l\u0131yor. <\/span>
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\u0130\u00c7 P\u0130YASADA T\u00dcKET\u0130M ARTTI<\/strong><\/span>
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Bu durumda i\u00e7 piyasaya hemen bakal\u0131m, al\u0131nan tedbirler etkisini g\u00f6stermi\u015f mi g\u00f6relim.<\/span>
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T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re A\u011fustos 2022\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmi sabit fiyatlarla (yani enflasyon etkisi kald\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u015fekilde) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 9 artm\u0131\u015f. Sabit fiyatlarla perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmi (2015=100) 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek ve t\u00fct\u00fcn sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 11.5, g\u0131da d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flarda (otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 12.8 artm\u0131\u015f, otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 4.3 azalm\u0131\u015f. G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe t\u00fcketim tepki vermi\u015f ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda t\u00fcketim d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f. Bunun yan\u0131nda di\u011fer \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7 piyasada durgunluk olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bize a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durumda gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 adaletine y\u00f6nelik al\u0131nan tedbirlerin de ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fmakta oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. <\/span>
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E\u011fer sizin \u015firketiniz bu verilere uymuyorsa yap\u0131sal problemler ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 ve ciddi anlamda y\u00f6netim organizasyonunda revizyona ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funuzu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u00e7 piyasada durgunluk rakamlarda g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"ic-piyasada-batidaki-gibi-bir-resesyon-var-mi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130\u00e7 piyasada bat\u0131daki gibi bir resesyon var m\u0131?","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1094,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":35471,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":35372,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u0130\u00e7 piyasada bat\u0131daki gibi bir resesyon var m\u0131?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Temel makroekonomik politikalarda bat\u0131yla tamamen z\u0131t bir g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fe sahibiz. Arz k\u00f6kenli oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcretimi art\u0131rarak durdurmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yoruz. \u0130\u015fin arz taraf\u0131nda tatl\u0131 rekabeti yakalayabilirsek ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131z. Bat\u0131da ise tam tersine arz yetersizli\u011fine talebi azaltarak reaksiyon vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan bir mant\u0131k var. Bu nedenle gerek ABD gerekse AB, s\u00fcrekli faiz art\u0131rd\u0131klar\u0131 halde enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 durduramad\u0131lar.<\/span>
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Enflasyonun arkas\u0131ndaki ana sebep, arz aksamalar\u0131 nedeniyle \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin t\u00fcketiciye eski d\u00fczeninde ula\u015famamas\u0131. Bu durumda talep, \u00fcretme sorunu ya\u015fayan \u00c7in\u2019den \u00fcreten T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye kay\u0131yor, ihracat rekorlar\u0131 k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131rken bazen de rafta \u00fcr\u00fcn bulamayacak kadar i\u015fin dibine gidiliyor. O zaman da fiyatlarda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde k\u0131r\u0131lmalar\u0131 ya\u015fad\u0131k.<\/span>
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\u00c7\u0130N NEDEN \u00dcRETEM\u0130YOR?<\/strong><\/span>
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Ana sebep s\u0131f\u0131r pandemi politikas\u0131 nedeniyle her an \u015fehir baz\u0131nda karantina ilan etmesi ve \u00fcretimi birden durdurmas\u0131d\u0131r. O zaman arz zincirinde ciddi aksamalar oluyor ve teslim tarihleri zorunlu olarak uzat\u0131l\u0131yor. <\/span>
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\u015eimdi Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 nedeniyle konulan yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n etkisini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6zellikle AB, enerji darbo\u011faz\u0131 nedeniyle k\u0131\u015f\u0131n \u00fcretemeyecek noktaya do\u011fru gidiyor. O y\u00fczden de T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00fcretim \u00fcss\u00fc olan \u00fclkelere ihtiyac\u0131 her zamankinden daha fazla. <\/span>
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\u00c7in\u2019de yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re y\u00fczde y\u00fcz\u00fcn \u00fczerinde artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na g\u00f6re, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n \u00fclkemize de gelme ihtimalini iyi hesaplamal\u0131y\u0131z. \u00d6zellikle Yunanistan\u2019la sava\u015f \u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131rtkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve senaryolar\u0131n\u0131n AB yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclkemize gelmekten vazge\u00e7irme amac\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z. Her \u015feyin bir zaman\u0131 var diyip, \u0130ngilizler gibi gizlice politikalar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 uygulamam\u0131z pekala m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. <\/span>
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Global ekonomilerde i\u00e7 talep hen\u00fcz bask\u0131 alt\u0131na al\u0131namad\u0131. E\u011fer ba\u015far\u0131labilirse de ciddi resesyona girecekleri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/span>
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Bizde ise genel duruma bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u00fcretimde, kapasite kullan\u0131m\u0131nda, d\u0131\u015f ticarette her \u015feyin yolunda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak gerek kur gerekse global emtia fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131 gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 \u00fccretli aleyhine bozmu\u015ftu. Bu durum toplumsal bar\u0131\u015f i\u00e7in bir tehdit olu\u015fturdu\u011fundan, \u00fccret ayarlamalar\u0131 en h\u0131zl\u0131 \u015fekilde yap\u0131larak bu yara sar\u0131l\u0131yor. <\/span>
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\u0130\u00c7 P\u0130YASADA T\u00dcKET\u0130M ARTTI<\/strong><\/span>
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Bu durumda i\u00e7 piyasaya hemen bakal\u0131m, al\u0131nan tedbirler etkisini g\u00f6stermi\u015f mi g\u00f6relim.<\/span>
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T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re A\u011fustos 2022\u2019de perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmi sabit fiyatlarla (yani enflasyon etkisi kald\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f \u015fekilde) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 9 artm\u0131\u015f. Sabit fiyatlarla perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmi (2015=100) 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek ve t\u00fct\u00fcn sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 11.5, g\u0131da d\u0131\u015f\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flarda (otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 12.8 artm\u0131\u015f, otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda ise y\u00fczde 4.3 azalm\u0131\u015f. G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere otomotiv yak\u0131t\u0131 fiyatlar\u0131nda a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fe t\u00fcketim tepki vermi\u015f ve y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda t\u00fcketim d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f. Bunun yan\u0131nda di\u011fer \u00fcr\u00fcnlerde t\u00fcketim art\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7 piyasada durgunluk olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bize a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durumda gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 adaletine y\u00f6nelik al\u0131nan tedbirlerin de ba\u015far\u0131ya ula\u015fmakta oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. <\/span>
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E\u011fer sizin \u015firketiniz bu verilere uymuyorsa yap\u0131sal problemler ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131z\u0131 ve ciddi anlamda y\u00f6netim organizasyonunda revizyona ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011funuzu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u00e7 piyasada durgunluk rakamlarda g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"ic-piyasada-batidaki-gibi-bir-resesyon-var-mi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"\u0130\u00e7 piyasada bat\u0131daki gibi bir resesyon var m\u0131?","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1094,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}