{"status":true,"post":{"id":33956,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 21:30:01","created_at":"2022-07-21T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T18:30:01.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":33956,"is_featured":0,"title":"Global stres ve sanayi \u00fcretimi","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
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ABD, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 9.1\u2019e gelen son 41 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek enflasyonuyla talebi dizginlemek i\u00e7in m\u00fccadele etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fadursun, Avrupa, bir yandan enerji krizi, di\u011fer yandan arz dengesizliklerinden kaynaklanan fiyat oynakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda Euro dolar paritesinin e\u015fitlenmesi problemiyle de kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131. <\/span>
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EURO DOLAR PAR\u0130TES\u0130N\u0130N E\u015e\u0130TLENMES\u0130N\u0130N AB \u00dcLKELER\u0130NE ETK\u0130S\u0130 NED\u0130R?<\/strong><\/span>
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Euro dolar paritesi 1.15 iken, 1.15 dolar olan \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupal\u0131 1 Euro vererek al\u0131rken, parite e\u015fitlendi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u015fimdi yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.15 Euro vererek al\u0131yor. Yani Euro baz\u0131nda 15 cent pahal\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f oldu. Bu durum AB b\u00f6lgesine parite marifetiyle enflasyon ithal etmek demektir. Bu sorunu bizler defalarca kez ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in iyi biliyoruz. <\/span>
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ABD, FA\u0130Z ARTIRIMLARIYLA PAHALILIK SORUNUNU \u00c7\u00d6ZEB\u0130L\u0130R M\u0130?<\/strong><\/span>
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Bu pek de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Zira konu, talepteki ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc art\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Aksine arz\u0131n d\u00fczensizli\u011fidir. Arz istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde talebi kar\u015f\u0131layamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde fiyat oynakl\u0131klar\u0131 ba\u015flar. \u0130\u015fte o zaman enflasyon kendini g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flar. ABD, yeni yeni ithalata vergi indirimi gibi t\u0131pk\u0131 bizde yap\u0131lan KDV indirimlerine benzer etki yapabilecek yollar uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. As\u0131l sorun arz\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lamamas\u0131 sorunudur. ABD\u2019nin yeni politikas\u0131, de\u011ferli dolarla enflasyonu ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131na atmakt\u0131r.<\/span>
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Burada kritik nokta, enerji darbo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131n olmamas\u0131d\u0131r. Aksi takdirde \u00fcretim tekrar aksayabilir. Son zamanlarda tah\u0131l darbo\u011faz\u0131yla g\u0131dada da fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sa\u011flanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc olsa da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin arabuluculu\u011fu bu konuda f\u0131rsat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc kapayacak gibi. <\/span>
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\u00dcRET\u0130MDE EN \u0130Y\u0130 ORANLAR<\/strong><\/span>
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Yurt i\u00e7ine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, sanayi \u00fcretim verisiyle \u00fcretimde i\u015flerin yolunda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak bu verinin iki ay geriden geldi\u011fini de unutmamam\u0131z laz\u0131m. T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re sanayi \u00fcretimi, May\u0131s 2022\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 9.1 artm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Daha detaya bakarsak imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 10.7 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. Di\u011fer \u00fclkelerle k\u0131yaslad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda en iyi oranlar aras\u0131nda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. <\/span>
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Sekt\u00f6rel bazda bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u00f6zellikle dayan\u0131ks\u0131z t\u00fcketim mal\u0131nda y\u00fczde 15.2 y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Sermaye mal\u0131nda da art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 17 y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. \u0130leri teknoloji \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcnde art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 45.6\u2019d\u0131r.<\/span>
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Global ekonomilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; Euro b\u00f6lgesinde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1.6, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de y\u00fczde 1.4, Yunanistan\u2019da y\u00fczde 3.4, Malezya\u2019da y\u00fczde 3,9, Finlandiya\u2019da y\u00fczde 5.5, Meksika\u2019da y\u00fczde 3.3, Japonya\u2019da y\u00fczde -3.1 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6zellikle Japonya\u2019daki eksi veri bizleri tedirgin ediyor. Resesyon s\u00f6ylemlerinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme riskini ortaya koyuyor.<\/span>
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RESESYON R\u0130SK\u0130N\u0130 FIRSATA \u00c7EV\u0130REB\u0130L\u0130R\u0130Z<\/strong><\/span>
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Ekonomistler, gelece\u011fi mevcut verilerle analiz ederek \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar. Bu durumda hem hedeflerin hem de b\u00fct\u00e7elerin do\u011fru \u015fekilde revize edilmesine katk\u0131da bulunurlar. Global durgunluk (resesyon) ve durgunlukla beraber enflasyon (stagflasyon) ciddi bir \u015fekilde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde duruyor. Profesyonel finansal y\u00f6netime sahip olmayanlar\u0131n taahh\u00fctlerini yerine getirememe riskiyle daha fazla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olduklar\u0131n\u0131 unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span>
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Ba\u015far\u0131 bir ekip i\u015fidir. Riskleri f\u0131rsata bu ekiple \u00e7evirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. \u00dclkemiz bir \u00fcretim \u00fcss\u00fc konumunda oldu\u011fundan bu global resesyon riskini f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirme potansiyeline sahiptir.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"global-stres-ve-sanayi-uretimi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Global stres ve sanayi \u00fcretimi","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1081,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":34055,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":33956,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Global stres ve sanayi \u00fcretimi","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD, y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 9.1\u2019e gelen son 41 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek enflasyonuyla talebi dizginlemek i\u00e7in m\u00fccadele etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015fadursun, Avrupa, bir yandan enerji krizi, di\u011fer yandan arz dengesizliklerinden kaynaklanan fiyat oynakl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131nda Euro dolar paritesinin e\u015fitlenmesi problemiyle de kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131. <\/span>
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EURO DOLAR PAR\u0130TES\u0130N\u0130N E\u015e\u0130TLENMES\u0130N\u0130N AB \u00dcLKELER\u0130NE ETK\u0130S\u0130 NED\u0130R?<\/strong><\/span>
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Euro dolar paritesi 1.15 iken, 1.15 dolar olan \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fc Avrupal\u0131 1 Euro vererek al\u0131rken, parite e\u015fitlendi\u011fi i\u00e7in \u015fimdi yakla\u015f\u0131k 1.15 Euro vererek al\u0131yor. Yani Euro baz\u0131nda 15 cent pahal\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f oldu. Bu durum AB b\u00f6lgesine parite marifetiyle enflasyon ithal etmek demektir. Bu sorunu bizler defalarca kez ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z i\u00e7in iyi biliyoruz. <\/span>
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ABD, FA\u0130Z ARTIRIMLARIYLA PAHALILIK SORUNUNU \u00c7\u00d6ZEB\u0130L\u0130R M\u0130?<\/strong><\/span>
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Bu pek de m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Zira konu, talepteki ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc art\u0131\u015f de\u011fil. Aksine arz\u0131n d\u00fczensizli\u011fidir. Arz istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde talebi kar\u015f\u0131layamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 takdirde fiyat oynakl\u0131klar\u0131 ba\u015flar. \u0130\u015fte o zaman enflasyon kendini g\u00f6stermeye ba\u015flar. ABD, yeni yeni ithalata vergi indirimi gibi t\u0131pk\u0131 bizde yap\u0131lan KDV indirimlerine benzer etki yapabilecek yollar uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. As\u0131l sorun arz\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lamamas\u0131 sorunudur. ABD\u2019nin yeni politikas\u0131, de\u011ferli dolarla enflasyonu ABD d\u0131\u015f\u0131na atmakt\u0131r.<\/span>
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Burada kritik nokta, enerji darbo\u011faz\u0131n\u0131n olmamas\u0131d\u0131r. Aksi takdirde \u00fcretim tekrar aksayabilir. Son zamanlarda tah\u0131l darbo\u011faz\u0131yla g\u0131dada da fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sa\u011flanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor g\u00f6r\u00fcnt\u00fcs\u00fc olsa da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin arabuluculu\u011fu bu konuda f\u0131rsat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc kapayacak gibi. <\/span>
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\u00dcRET\u0130MDE EN \u0130Y\u0130 ORANLAR<\/strong><\/span>
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Yurt i\u00e7ine bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, sanayi \u00fcretim verisiyle \u00fcretimde i\u015flerin yolunda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ancak bu verinin iki ay geriden geldi\u011fini de unutmamam\u0131z laz\u0131m. T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re sanayi \u00fcretimi, May\u0131s 2022\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 9.1 artm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Daha detaya bakarsak imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 10.7 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcr\u00fcz. Di\u011fer \u00fclkelerle k\u0131yaslad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda en iyi oranlar aras\u0131nda oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. <\/span>
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Sekt\u00f6rel bazda bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda \u00f6zellikle dayan\u0131ks\u0131z t\u00fcketim mal\u0131nda y\u00fczde 15.2 y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Sermaye mal\u0131nda da art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 17 y\u00fckseli\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcndedir. \u0130leri teknoloji \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcnde art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 45.6\u2019d\u0131r.<\/span>
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Global ekonomilere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; Euro b\u00f6lgesinde y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1.6, \u0130ngiltere\u2019de y\u00fczde 1.4, Yunanistan\u2019da y\u00fczde 3.4, Malezya\u2019da y\u00fczde 3,9, Finlandiya\u2019da y\u00fczde 5.5, Meksika\u2019da y\u00fczde 3.3, Japonya\u2019da y\u00fczde -3.1 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6zellikle Japonya\u2019daki eksi veri bizleri tedirgin ediyor. Resesyon s\u00f6ylemlerinin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme riskini ortaya koyuyor.<\/span>
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RESESYON R\u0130SK\u0130N\u0130 FIRSATA \u00c7EV\u0130REB\u0130L\u0130R\u0130Z<\/strong><\/span>
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Ekonomistler, gelece\u011fi mevcut verilerle analiz ederek \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rlar. Bu durumda hem hedeflerin hem de b\u00fct\u00e7elerin do\u011fru \u015fekilde revize edilmesine katk\u0131da bulunurlar. Global durgunluk (resesyon) ve durgunlukla beraber enflasyon (stagflasyon) ciddi bir \u015fekilde \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczde duruyor. Profesyonel finansal y\u00f6netime sahip olmayanlar\u0131n taahh\u00fctlerini yerine getirememe riskiyle daha fazla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya olduklar\u0131n\u0131 unutmamal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span>
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Ba\u015far\u0131 bir ekip i\u015fidir. Riskleri f\u0131rsata bu ekiple \u00e7evirmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. \u00dclkemiz bir \u00fcretim \u00fcss\u00fc konumunda oldu\u011fundan bu global resesyon riskini f\u0131rsata \u00e7evirme potansiyeline sahiptir.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"global-stres-ve-sanayi-uretimi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Global stres ve sanayi \u00fcretimi","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1081,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}