{"status":true,"post":{"id":22954,"user_id":1,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:22:55","created_at":"2020-09-10T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:22:55.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":22954,"is_featured":0,"title":"F\u0131rsat penceremiz a\u00e7\u0131k","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e<\/strong><\/span>
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Son iki Eko-Mercek\u2019te demografiyi konu\u015fuyoruz. N\u00fcfusun ve yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclkelerin geleceklerini nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini... D\u00fcnya ile ilgili epey bilgi verdik. Baz\u0131 okurlar\u0131m\u0131z, sa\u011f olsunlar, de\u011ferlendirmeleri, payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 de\u011ferli bulmu\u015flar. Ama payla\u015f\u0131lan bilgilerde \u2018T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye az yer verildi\u011fi\u2019 serzeni\u015flerini de ilettiler.<\/span>
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T\u00fcrkiye ile ilgili bilgileri de payla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k asl\u0131nda. \u00d6nceki yaz\u0131larda bahsetti\u011fimiz Profes\u00f6r Christopher Murray\u2019\u0131n liderlik etti\u011fi ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin n\u00fcfusu, 30-40 y\u0131l kadar daha artacak. Ama giderek d\u00fc\u015fen bir oranla... 110 milyon civar\u0131na t\u0131rman\u0131p sonra gerilemeye ge\u00e7ece\u011fiz. Yine de y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin n\u00fcfusunun 101 milyon civar\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. <\/span>
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Do\u011frusu, bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu\u2019nun (T\u00dc\u0130K) n\u00fcfus projeksiyonlar\u0131 ile de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeniledi\u011fi projeksiyona g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfusu 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda 86.9 milyon olacak. 2040\u2019ta ise 100 milyon ki\u015fiye ula\u015facak. N\u00fcfusumuz azalan oranlarla da olsa 2069 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar artarak 107.7 milyon ki\u015fi ile en y\u00fcksek de\u011ferine ula\u015facak. 2069\u2019dan itibaren ise azal\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ecek.<\/span>
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***<\/span>
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\u015eimdi gelelim bu projeksiyonlar\u0131n ne i\u015fe yarad\u0131\u011f\u0131na... N\u00fcfusla ilgili projeksiyonlar sadece \u2018devlet\u2019 i\u00e7in gerekli de\u011fil. \u0130\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in de gerekli. Y\u00f6netenler, karar vericiler strateji belirlerken ve planlama yaparken orta ve uzun vadedeki n\u00fcfus hakk\u0131nda bir fikir sahibi olmak isterler. Neden derseniz anlatay\u0131m: <\/span>
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Elimizdeki ger\u00e7ek nedir? T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin n\u00fcfusu art\u0131yor artmas\u0131na ancak n\u00fcfusun art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak n\u00fcfusumuz i\u00e7indeki \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131 da giderek azal\u0131yor. 1970 y\u0131l\u0131nda toplam n\u00fcfusumuzun y\u00fczde 48.5\u2019i 0 ile 17 ya\u015f aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7ocuklardan olu\u015fuyordu. Bu oran 1990\u2019da y\u00fczde 41.8\u2019e, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ise y\u00fczde 28.3\u2019e geriledi. <\/span>
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\u0130sterseniz, daha somutla\u015fs\u0131n diye, bir kez de oran de\u011fil de rakam vererek anlatay\u0131m. 1980 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin n\u00fcfusu yakla\u015f\u0131k 45 milyondu. 20 milyon yeti\u015fkin yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon \u00e7ocu\u011fu b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyordu. Bug\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin n\u00fcfusu 83.2 milyon. (Hemen belirteyim, bu n\u00fcfusa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ge\u00e7ici koruma stat\u00fcs\u00fcyle bulunan Suriyeliler ve di\u011fer ikamet iznine sahip yabanc\u0131lar dahil de\u011fil) \u015eimdi, yakla\u015f\u0131k 55 milyon yeti\u015fkin 22 milyon \u00e7ocu\u011fa bak\u0131yor. <\/span>
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Bunun i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken baz\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 var. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz... <\/span>
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\u2018Bunun neresi olumlu\u2019 derseniz onu da s\u00f6yleyeyim: <\/span>
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Yukar\u0131daki verilerden yola \u00e7\u0131karsak, 1980\u2019li y\u0131llara g\u00f6re \u00e7ocuk ba\u015f\u0131na harcanabilecek reel tutar, ailelerin gelir d\u00fczeylerinin ayn\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsaysak bile y\u00fczde 100 artt\u0131 demek. 1970\u2019lerde, 80\u2019lerde d\u00f6rt-be\u015f \u00e7ocu\u011fa b\u00f6l\u00fcnen para, \u015fu anda iki \u00e7ocu\u011fa b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yeti\u015fkin ve \u00fcretken n\u00fcfusun toplam say\u0131s\u0131 h\u0131zla artarken, 0-17 ya\u015f aras\u0131ndakilerin say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 \u00e7ocuklar i\u00e7in mal ve hizmet \u00fcreten sekt\u00f6rleri destekliyor. Bilgisayar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor. Okul \u00f6ncesi e\u011fitim yayg\u0131nla\u015f\u0131yor. \u00c7ocuklara y\u00f6nelik g\u0131da, giyim e\u015fyas\u0131 ve oyuncak satan \u015firketlerin cirosu art\u0131yor. <\/span>
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Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z, \u2018f\u0131rsat penceresi\u2019 denilen hadise de bu. Yukar\u0131da oranlarla, rakamlarla \u00f6rneklemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m demografik ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcreci, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli geliri art\u0131rabilecek bir etkiye sahip. Gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfustan ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusa ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcreci i\u00e7inde 15-64 ya\u015flar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfus, yani potansiyel i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc arz\u0131 s\u00fcrekli artaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ekonominin h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi imkan\u0131 da artm\u0131\u015f oluyor. <\/span>
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\u0130\u015fte bu kalk\u0131nma imkan\u0131 ve potansiyeli, sosyal bilimciler taraf\u0131ndan \u2018f\u0131rsat penceresi\u2019 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00e7ocuklar da daha iyi bak\u0131m ve e\u011fitim imkanlar\u0131na kavu\u015fabiliyor ve gelecekteki kalk\u0131nma s\u00fcrecine daha fazla katk\u0131da bulunabiliyor. Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz, s\u00f6z\u00fc edilen f\u0131rsat penceresinin ba\u015far\u0131ya a\u00e7\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in artan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir \u00e7a\u011fdaki n\u00fcfusa istihdam imkanlar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn kalitesinin ve verimlili\u011finin y\u00fckseltilmesi gerekiyor. <\/span>
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Bu demografik \u2018f\u0131rsat penceresi\u2019, <\/span>
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50\u2019li ve 60\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llarda Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin, 70\u2019li ve 80\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llarda ise Do\u011fu Asya \u00fclkelerinin kalk\u0131nmalar\u0131na katk\u0131da bulundu. <\/span>
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\u015eimdi s\u0131ra T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de... T\u00fcrkiye, \u2018f\u0131rsat penceresi\u2019nin ard\u0131na kadar a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemi ya\u015f\u0131yor. N\u00fcfusumuz, 31 Aral\u0131k 2019 itibar\u0131yla 83 milyon 154 bin. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfus olarak tan\u0131mlanan 15-64 ya\u015f grubundaki n\u00fcfusun toplam n\u00fcfusa oran\u0131 da bug\u00fcne kadarki en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u015eimdi n\u00fcfusumuzun y\u00fczde 67.8\u2019i \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir n\u00fcfustan olu\u015fuyor.<\/span>
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\u00d6te yandan, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin medyan ya\u015f\u0131 da ge\u00e7en y\u0131l sonu itibariyle 32.4 oldu. Bug\u00fcne kadarki b\u00fct\u00fcn deneyimler, \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik at\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ortalama ya\u015flar\u0131 30 ile 40 aras\u0131nda iken ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdiklerini g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrkiye, 30\u2019un biraz \u00fcst\u00fcndeki ortalama ya\u015f\u0131 ile tam da bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te bulunuyor.<\/span>
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B\u00fct\u00fcn projeksiyonlar, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir \u00e7a\u011fdaki n\u00fcfusumuzun art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 40 y\u0131l daha s\u00fcrece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u2018f\u0131rsat penceresi\u2019 2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar a\u00e7\u0131k kalacak.<\/span>
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Son d\u00f6nemde, Avrupal\u0131 \u015firketlerin pek \u00e7o\u011funun sat\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 siz de duyuyorsunuzdur. Temel e\u011filimlerle kavga, tart\u0131\u015fma olmuyor. Onlar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015filepler gibi. Rotadan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131na kolay izin vermiyor. Bak\u0131n Japonya, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00e7al\u0131\u015fkan, disiplinli, e\u011fitimli, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla verimli \u00fclkelerinden biri... 44.7 ile ortalama ya\u015f\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n da \u00fcst\u00fcnde bulunan Japonya, son 25 y\u0131ld\u0131r ekonomik durgunlukla bo\u011fu\u015fuyor. Ne yapacaksak, f\u0131rsat penceresi kapanmadan yapaca\u011f\u0131z. En iyi \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirmeye bakal\u0131m. <\/span>
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DEMOGRAF\u0130K ANAL\u0130Z DEY\u0130P GE\u00c7MEY\u0130N <\/strong><\/span>
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N\u00fcfusla ilgili projeksiyon ve analizlerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan faydalar\u0131n\u0131 4 ba\u015fl\u0131kta \u00f6zetlemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn: <\/span>
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1 - N\u00fcfusun gelecekteki d\u00fczeyi i\u00e7 talebin boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 belirliyor ve s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor. <\/span>
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2 - N\u00fcfusun ya\u015f gruplar\u0131na g\u00f6re gelecekteki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131 parlayacak i\u015f alanlar\u0131 ile ilgili \u00f6nemli ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 verebiliyor. Harcamalar\u0131n ve tasarruflar\u0131n da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 da ya\u015f gruplar\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi i\u00e7in demografik analiz, gelecek ile ilgili belirsizlikleri azalt\u0131yor. <\/span>
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3 - Aile say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ve belirli \u00fcr\u00fcnlerdeki penetrasyon, yani sahiplik oranlar\u0131n\u0131n bilinmesi, sat\u0131\u015f planlamas\u0131n\u0131n daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar. Mesela T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen otomobil say\u0131s\u0131 son 15 y\u0131lda iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00c7ok de\u011fil, 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda bile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de 1000 ki\u015fiye yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 otomobil d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyordu. \u015eimdi ise her 1000 ki\u015fiye yakla\u015f\u0131k 160 otomobil d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Ancak Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde her 1000 ki\u015fiye 510 otomobil d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye pazar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fme potansiyelinin olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span>
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4 - Evliliklerin ve bo\u015fanmalar\u0131n y\u0131llar itibariyle say\u0131s\u0131 ve bir ailenin ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, gelecekteki konut talebinin ve belirli konut arz\u0131 d\u00fczeylerinde fiyat e\u011filimlerinin tahminini kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Tabii, buzdolab\u0131, \u00e7ama\u015f\u0131r makinas\u0131 vb. dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 i\u00e7in de...<\/span>
Demografik analizler, ba\u015fta b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecine, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ve giri\u015fimcilerin gelecek ile ilgili plan yapmas\u0131 olmak \u00fczere ekonomide ve i\u015f hayat\u0131nda al\u0131nan kararlara \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutuyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"firsat-penceremiz-acik","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"F\u0131rsat penceremiz a\u00e7\u0131k","meta_description":"HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1078,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":1,"name":"HAKAN","surname":"G\u00dcLDA\u011e","email":"uakisik@eronat.com.tr","slug":"hakan-guldag","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600kKPzKvWx8Xpxx9n.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:32.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":23053,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":22954,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"F\u0131rsat penceremiz a\u00e7\u0131k","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e<\/strong><\/span>
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Son iki Eko-Mercek\u2019te demografiyi konu\u015fuyoruz. N\u00fcfusun ve yap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n \u00fclkelerin geleceklerini nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini... D\u00fcnya ile ilgili epey bilgi verdik. Baz\u0131 okurlar\u0131m\u0131z, sa\u011f olsunlar, de\u011ferlendirmeleri, payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar\u0131 de\u011ferli bulmu\u015flar. Ama payla\u015f\u0131lan bilgilerde \u2018T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye az yer verildi\u011fi\u2019 serzeni\u015flerini de ilettiler.<\/span>
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T\u00fcrkiye ile ilgili bilgileri de payla\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131k asl\u0131nda. \u00d6nceki yaz\u0131larda bahsetti\u011fimiz Profes\u00f6r Christopher Murray\u2019\u0131n liderlik etti\u011fi ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin n\u00fcfusu, 30-40 y\u0131l kadar daha artacak. Ama giderek d\u00fc\u015fen bir oranla... 110 milyon civar\u0131na t\u0131rman\u0131p sonra gerilemeye ge\u00e7ece\u011fiz. Yine de y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin n\u00fcfusunun 101 milyon civar\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor. <\/span>
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Do\u011frusu, bu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu\u2019nun (T\u00dc\u0130K) n\u00fcfus projeksiyonlar\u0131 ile de \u00f6rt\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. T\u00dc\u0130K\u2019in 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeniledi\u011fi projeksiyona g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfusu 2023 y\u0131l\u0131nda 86.9 milyon olacak. 2040\u2019ta ise 100 milyon ki\u015fiye ula\u015facak. N\u00fcfusumuz azalan oranlarla da olsa 2069 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar artarak 107.7 milyon ki\u015fi ile en y\u00fcksek de\u011ferine ula\u015facak. 2069\u2019dan itibaren ise azal\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ecek.<\/span>
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\u015eimdi gelelim bu projeksiyonlar\u0131n ne i\u015fe yarad\u0131\u011f\u0131na... N\u00fcfusla ilgili projeksiyonlar sadece \u2018devlet\u2019 i\u00e7in gerekli de\u011fil. \u0130\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 i\u00e7in de gerekli. Y\u00f6netenler, karar vericiler strateji belirlerken ve planlama yaparken orta ve uzun vadedeki n\u00fcfus hakk\u0131nda bir fikir sahibi olmak isterler. Neden derseniz anlatay\u0131m: <\/span>
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Elimizdeki ger\u00e7ek nedir? T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin n\u00fcfusu art\u0131yor artmas\u0131na ancak n\u00fcfusun art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 yava\u015fl\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak n\u00fcfusumuz i\u00e7indeki \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131 da giderek azal\u0131yor. 1970 y\u0131l\u0131nda toplam n\u00fcfusumuzun y\u00fczde 48.5\u2019i 0 ile 17 ya\u015f aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7ocuklardan olu\u015fuyordu. Bu oran 1990\u2019da y\u00fczde 41.8\u2019e, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ise y\u00fczde 28.3\u2019e geriledi. <\/span>
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\u0130sterseniz, daha somutla\u015fs\u0131n diye, bir kez de oran de\u011fil de rakam vererek anlatay\u0131m. 1980 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin n\u00fcfusu yakla\u015f\u0131k 45 milyondu. 20 milyon yeti\u015fkin yakla\u015f\u0131k 20 milyon \u00e7ocu\u011fu b\u00fcy\u00fct\u00fcyordu. Bug\u00fcn T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin n\u00fcfusu 83.2 milyon. (Hemen belirteyim, bu n\u00fcfusa T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ge\u00e7ici koruma stat\u00fcs\u00fcyle bulunan Suriyeliler ve di\u011fer ikamet iznine sahip yabanc\u0131lar dahil de\u011fil) \u015eimdi, yakla\u015f\u0131k 55 milyon yeti\u015fkin 22 milyon \u00e7ocu\u011fa bak\u0131yor. <\/span>
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Bunun i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan dikkate al\u0131nmas\u0131 gereken baz\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 var. Hem olumlu hem olumsuz... <\/span>
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\u2018Bunun neresi olumlu\u2019 derseniz onu da s\u00f6yleyeyim: <\/span>
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Yukar\u0131daki verilerden yola \u00e7\u0131karsak, 1980\u2019li y\u0131llara g\u00f6re \u00e7ocuk ba\u015f\u0131na harcanabilecek reel tutar, ailelerin gelir d\u00fczeylerinin ayn\u0131 kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 varsaysak bile y\u00fczde 100 artt\u0131 demek. 1970\u2019lerde, 80\u2019lerde d\u00f6rt-be\u015f \u00e7ocu\u011fa b\u00f6l\u00fcnen para, \u015fu anda iki \u00e7ocu\u011fa b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Yeti\u015fkin ve \u00fcretken n\u00fcfusun toplam say\u0131s\u0131 h\u0131zla artarken, 0-17 ya\u015f aras\u0131ndakilerin say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 \u00e7ocuklar i\u00e7in mal ve hizmet \u00fcreten sekt\u00f6rleri destekliyor. Bilgisayar sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131 y\u00fckseliyor. Okul \u00f6ncesi e\u011fitim yayg\u0131nla\u015f\u0131yor. \u00c7ocuklara y\u00f6nelik g\u0131da, giyim e\u015fyas\u0131 ve oyuncak satan \u015firketlerin cirosu art\u0131yor. <\/span>
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Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z, \u2018f\u0131rsat penceresi\u2019 denilen hadise de bu. Yukar\u0131da oranlarla, rakamlarla \u00f6rneklemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131m demografik ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcreci, n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc bir ortamda ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na milli geliri art\u0131rabilecek bir etkiye sahip. Gen\u00e7 n\u00fcfustan ya\u015fl\u0131 n\u00fcfusa ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcreci i\u00e7inde 15-64 ya\u015flar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfus, yani potansiyel i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc arz\u0131 s\u00fcrekli artaca\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ekonominin h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi imkan\u0131 da artm\u0131\u015f oluyor. <\/span>
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\u0130\u015fte bu kalk\u0131nma imkan\u0131 ve potansiyeli, sosyal bilimciler taraf\u0131ndan \u2018f\u0131rsat penceresi\u2019 olarak adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te \u00e7ocuklar da daha iyi bak\u0131m ve e\u011fitim imkanlar\u0131na kavu\u015fabiliyor ve gelecekteki kalk\u0131nma s\u00fcrecine daha fazla katk\u0131da bulunabiliyor. Hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz, s\u00f6z\u00fc edilen f\u0131rsat penceresinin ba\u015far\u0131ya a\u00e7\u0131labilmesi i\u00e7in artan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir \u00e7a\u011fdaki n\u00fcfusa istihdam imkanlar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn kalitesinin ve verimlili\u011finin y\u00fckseltilmesi gerekiyor. <\/span>
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Bu demografik \u2018f\u0131rsat penceresi\u2019, <\/span>
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50\u2019li ve 60\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llarda Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin, 70\u2019li ve 80\u2019l\u0131 y\u0131llarda ise Do\u011fu Asya \u00fclkelerinin kalk\u0131nmalar\u0131na katk\u0131da bulundu. <\/span>
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\u015eimdi s\u0131ra T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de... T\u00fcrkiye, \u2018f\u0131rsat penceresi\u2019nin ard\u0131na kadar a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nemi ya\u015f\u0131yor. N\u00fcfusumuz, 31 Aral\u0131k 2019 itibar\u0131yla 83 milyon 154 bin. \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma \u00e7a\u011f\u0131ndaki n\u00fcfus olarak tan\u0131mlanan 15-64 ya\u015f grubundaki n\u00fcfusun toplam n\u00fcfusa oran\u0131 da bug\u00fcne kadarki en y\u00fcksek seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u015eimdi n\u00fcfusumuzun y\u00fczde 67.8\u2019i \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir n\u00fcfustan olu\u015fuyor.<\/span>
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\u00d6te yandan, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin medyan ya\u015f\u0131 da ge\u00e7en y\u0131l sonu itibariyle 32.4 oldu. Bug\u00fcne kadarki b\u00fct\u00fcn deneyimler, \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik at\u0131l\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 ortalama ya\u015flar\u0131 30 ile 40 aras\u0131nda iken ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdiklerini g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00fcrkiye, 30\u2019un biraz \u00fcst\u00fcndeki ortalama ya\u015f\u0131 ile tam da bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te bulunuyor.<\/span>
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B\u00fct\u00fcn projeksiyonlar, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de n\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 d\u00fc\u015ferken, \u00e7al\u0131\u015fabilir \u00e7a\u011fdaki n\u00fcfusumuzun art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n 40 y\u0131l daha s\u00fcrece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin \u2018f\u0131rsat penceresi\u2019 2060 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar a\u00e7\u0131k kalacak.<\/span>
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Son d\u00f6nemde, Avrupal\u0131 \u015firketlerin pek \u00e7o\u011funun sat\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 siz de duyuyorsunuzdur. Temel e\u011filimlerle kavga, tart\u0131\u015fma olmuyor. Onlar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u015filepler gibi. Rotadan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131na kolay izin vermiyor. Bak\u0131n Japonya, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en \u00e7al\u0131\u015fkan, disiplinli, e\u011fitimli, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla verimli \u00fclkelerinden biri... 44.7 ile ortalama ya\u015f\u0131 Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n da \u00fcst\u00fcnde bulunan Japonya, son 25 y\u0131ld\u0131r ekonomik durgunlukla bo\u011fu\u015fuyor. Ne yapacaksak, f\u0131rsat penceresi kapanmadan yapaca\u011f\u0131z. En iyi \u015fekilde de\u011ferlendirmeye bakal\u0131m. <\/span>
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DEMOGRAF\u0130K ANAL\u0130Z DEY\u0130P GE\u00c7MEY\u0130N <\/strong><\/span>
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N\u00fcfusla ilgili projeksiyon ve analizlerin \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kan faydalar\u0131n\u0131 4 ba\u015fl\u0131kta \u00f6zetlemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn: <\/span>
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1 - N\u00fcfusun gelecekteki d\u00fczeyi i\u00e7 talebin boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 belirliyor ve s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7iziyor. <\/span>
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2 - N\u00fcfusun ya\u015f gruplar\u0131na g\u00f6re gelecekteki da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131, y\u0131ld\u0131z\u0131 parlayacak i\u015f alanlar\u0131 ile ilgili \u00f6nemli ipu\u00e7lar\u0131 verebiliyor. Harcamalar\u0131n ve tasarruflar\u0131n da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 da ya\u015f gruplar\u0131na g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fti\u011fi i\u00e7in demografik analiz, gelecek ile ilgili belirsizlikleri azalt\u0131yor. <\/span>
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3 - Aile say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ve belirli \u00fcr\u00fcnlerdeki penetrasyon, yani sahiplik oranlar\u0131n\u0131n bilinmesi, sat\u0131\u015f planlamas\u0131n\u0131n daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flar. Mesela T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen otomobil say\u0131s\u0131 son 15 y\u0131lda iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00c7ok de\u011fil, 2003 y\u0131l\u0131nda bile T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de 1000 ki\u015fiye yakla\u015f\u0131k 70 otomobil d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyordu. \u015eimdi ise her 1000 ki\u015fiye yakla\u015f\u0131k 160 otomobil d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Ancak Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde her 1000 ki\u015fiye 510 otomobil d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye pazar\u0131ndaki geli\u015fme potansiyelinin olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span>
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4 - Evliliklerin ve bo\u015fanmalar\u0131n y\u0131llar itibariyle say\u0131s\u0131 ve bir ailenin ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc, gelecekteki konut talebinin ve belirli konut arz\u0131 d\u00fczeylerinde fiyat e\u011filimlerinin tahminini kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131r. Tabii, buzdolab\u0131, \u00e7ama\u015f\u0131r makinas\u0131 vb. dayan\u0131kl\u0131 t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 i\u00e7in de...<\/span>
Demografik analizler, ba\u015fta b\u00fcy\u00fcme s\u00fcrecine, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ve giri\u015fimcilerin gelecek ile ilgili plan yapmas\u0131 olmak \u00fczere ekonomide ve i\u015f hayat\u0131nda al\u0131nan kararlara \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutuyor.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"firsat-penceremiz-acik","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"F\u0131rsat penceremiz a\u00e7\u0131k","meta_description":"HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1078,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}