{"status":true,"post":{"id":33559,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 21:25:25","created_at":"2022-06-16T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T18:25:25.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":33559,"is_featured":0,"title":"Fed, stagflasyon riskini g\u00f6ze ald\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnyan\u0131n tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan Nouriel Roubini, 2021 a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda \u2018stagflasyon riski\u2019nin kap\u0131da ve ciddi bir tehdit oldu\u011funu belirtti\u011finde, hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz \u2018tutucu\u2019 neoliberal ortodoks ekonomistler ciddiye almam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ile Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF) \u00f6nde gelen isimlerinin son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6receli olarak daha Keynesyen duru\u015funun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, bu nedenle \u2018stagflasyon riski\u2019ne at\u0131fta bulundu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir iken, IMF cephesinde \u2018neoliberal ortodoks\u2019 anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131n yeniden canland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, uzunca bir Strauss-Khan ve Lagarde ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6nemi boyunca daha \u2018Keynesyen\u2019 yakla\u015f\u0131ma yak\u0131n duran IMF\u2019nin, rotas\u0131n\u0131 tekrar \u2018salt fiyat istikrar\u0131\u2019 odakl\u0131 bir anlay\u0131\u015fa \u00e7evirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Ayn\u0131 durum, hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 cephesinde de ge\u00e7erli. Esasen, k\u00fcresel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son 40-45 y\u0131l\u0131n en a\u011f\u0131r \u2018maliyet enflasyonu\u2019 s\u00fcrecinden ge\u00e7iyoruz. 1970\u2019lerin petrol krizlerinde, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f para politikas\u0131 tedbirleri, \u2018maliyet enflasyonu\u2019 bazl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcren enflasyon trendinin yava\u015flamas\u0131 veya k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda i\u015fe yaramam\u0131\u015f; ABD ve Avrupa \u00fclkeleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere, \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkeleri \u2018stagflasyon\u2019a s\u00fcr\u00fcklemi\u015fti. 45 y\u0131l sonra, yine ayn\u0131 noktada olmam\u0131z, iktisat literat\u00fcr\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u2018ibret verici\u2019.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASININ ETK\u0130NL\u0130\u011e\u0130<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6z\u00fc net: \u201cEnflasyonun y\u00fckselmesine sebep olan bir\u00e7ok \u015feyin Fed\u2019in kontrol\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. D\u0131\u015f fakt\u00f6rler Fed i\u00e7in enflasyon kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.\u201d \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, \u2018maliyet enflasyonu\u2019 ile m\u00fccadelede para politikas\u0131n\u0131n etkinli\u011fi \u2018zay\u0131f\u2019t\u0131r. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 1970-1990 aras\u0131 iktisat literat\u00fcr\u00fcnde hararetli bir \u015fekilde tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f; \u2018maliyet enflasyonu\u2019 ile m\u00fccadele etkin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn para-maliye-direkt kontrol politikalar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcs\u00fc oldu\u011funun kabul edilmi\u015f oldu\u011fu bir ortamda, \u2018neoliberal ortodoks\u2019 ekonomistler sevmiyorlar diye, maliye politikas\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin direkt ekonomi politikas\u0131 tedbirlerini g\u00f6rmemezlikten gelip; 45 y\u0131l sonra, bir kez daha sadece \u2018para politikas\u0131\u2019yla m\u00fcdahale, \u2018stagflasyon\u2019a davetiye \u00e7\u0131karmakt\u0131r.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Stagflasyon, maliyet enflasyonu odakl\u0131 y\u00fcksek enflasyon sorununu, \u2018salt\u2019 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak, ekonomideki talebi, hane halk\u0131 t\u00fcketim ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layarak kontrol alt\u0131na alma gayretlerinin, e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak a\u011f\u0131r ekonomik durgunluk (resesyon) ve i\u015fsizlik sorununu da b\u00fcy\u00fctmesi anlam\u0131na gelir. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell, Fed ekonomistlerinin Amerikan ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik okumalar\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendi ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, \u2018\u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli\u2019 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, 1994\u2019den bu yanaki en y\u00fcksek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda devam edecek y\u00fcksek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131n tolere edilebilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Piyasa ekonomistleri de, her zamanki gibi Fed\u2019i a\u011f\u0131r bir resesyonu g\u00f6ze alarak, h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na te\u015fvik ediyorlar.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> ABD\u2019nin, uluslararas\u0131 rezerv para olan dolar\u0131 basan \u00fclke olarak, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z dolar basarak, a\u011f\u0131r resesyonun sebep olaca\u011f\u0131 rekor federal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmekten rahats\u0131z olmayaca\u011f\u0131 a\u015fikar. Ancak, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir kalk\u0131nma hedeflerini, ye\u015fil kalk\u0131nma devrimini, \u2018iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi\u2019 ile m\u00fccadeleyi ciddi tehlikeye sokacak bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, bu konular\u0131n hi\u00e7 g\u00fcndemde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 1970\u2019ler d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 tekrarlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc; birlikte g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>D\u00dcNYA BANKASI: STAGFLASYON R\u0130SK\u0130 ARTIYOR<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, OECD ve IMF gibi \u00f6nceki hafta yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son \u2018K\u00fcresel Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nda, k\u00fcresel enflasyon \u015foku nedeniyle parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma h\u0131zland\u0131ran ve\/veya h\u0131zland\u0131rmay\u0131 g\u00fcndemine alan kimi merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131 tedbirlerinin sebep olaca\u011f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r resesyonun, y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek k\u00fcresel enflasyon ve i\u015fsizlik sorunu ile birlikte \u2018staglasyon riski\u2019ni de art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n raporunda i\u015faret etti\u011fi \u2018stagflasyon riski\u2019, ayn\u0131 zamanda iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini durdurmak i\u00e7in at\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken ad\u0131mlar\u0131 da sekteye u\u011fratabilir. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen kimi merkez bankalar\u0131, bu y\u00f6n\u00fcyle, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f para politikas\u0131yla a\u011f\u0131r resesyonu g\u00f6ze al\u0131rken, enflasyonu h\u0131zla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye odaklan\u0131rken; ayn\u0131 zamanda, a\u011f\u0131r bir i\u015fsizli\u011fi ve yery\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fc koruyacak yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n sekteye u\u011framas\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6ze al\u0131yorlar.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"fed-stagflasyon-riskini-goze-aldi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Fed, stagflasyon riskini g\u00f6ze ald\u0131","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1071,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":33658,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":33559,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Fed, stagflasyon riskini g\u00f6ze ald\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnyan\u0131n tan\u0131nm\u0131\u015f iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131ndan Nouriel Roubini, 2021 a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda \u2018stagflasyon riski\u2019nin kap\u0131da ve ciddi bir tehdit oldu\u011funu belirtti\u011finde, hi\u00e7 ku\u015fkusuz \u2018tutucu\u2019 neoliberal ortodoks ekonomistler ciddiye almam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 ile Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF) \u00f6nde gelen isimlerinin son a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n g\u00f6receli olarak daha Keynesyen duru\u015funun s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc, bu nedenle \u2018stagflasyon riski\u2019ne at\u0131fta bulundu\u011funu g\u00f6sterir iken, IMF cephesinde \u2018neoliberal ortodoks\u2019 anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131n yeniden canland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, uzunca bir Strauss-Khan ve Lagarde ba\u015fkanl\u0131k d\u00f6nemi boyunca daha \u2018Keynesyen\u2019 yakla\u015f\u0131ma yak\u0131n duran IMF\u2019nin, rotas\u0131n\u0131 tekrar \u2018salt fiyat istikrar\u0131\u2019 odakl\u0131 bir anlay\u0131\u015fa \u00e7evirdi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Ayn\u0131 durum, hi\u00e7 \u015f\u00fcphesiz ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 cephesinde de ge\u00e7erli. Esasen, k\u00fcresel ekonomi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan son 40-45 y\u0131l\u0131n en a\u011f\u0131r \u2018maliyet enflasyonu\u2019 s\u00fcrecinden ge\u00e7iyoruz. 1970\u2019lerin petrol krizlerinde, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f para politikas\u0131 tedbirleri, \u2018maliyet enflasyonu\u2019 bazl\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcren enflasyon trendinin yava\u015flamas\u0131 veya k\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131nda i\u015fe yaramam\u0131\u015f; ABD ve Avrupa \u00fclkeleri ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere, \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkeleri \u2018stagflasyon\u2019a s\u00fcr\u00fcklemi\u015fti. 45 y\u0131l sonra, yine ayn\u0131 noktada olmam\u0131z, iktisat literat\u00fcr\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u2018ibret verici\u2019.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASININ ETK\u0130NL\u0130\u011e\u0130<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell\u2019\u0131n s\u00f6z\u00fc net: \u201cEnflasyonun y\u00fckselmesine sebep olan bir\u00e7ok \u015feyin Fed\u2019in kontrol\u00fc d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda oldu\u011fu anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. D\u0131\u015f fakt\u00f6rler Fed i\u00e7in enflasyon kontrol\u00fcn\u00fc zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor.\u201d \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc, \u2018maliyet enflasyonu\u2019 ile m\u00fccadelede para politikas\u0131n\u0131n etkinli\u011fi \u2018zay\u0131f\u2019t\u0131r. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> 1970-1990 aras\u0131 iktisat literat\u00fcr\u00fcnde hararetli bir \u015fekilde tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f; \u2018maliyet enflasyonu\u2019 ile m\u00fccadele etkin \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcn para-maliye-direkt kontrol politikalar\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcs\u00fc oldu\u011funun kabul edilmi\u015f oldu\u011fu bir ortamda, \u2018neoliberal ortodoks\u2019 ekonomistler sevmiyorlar diye, maliye politikas\u0131 ve h\u00fck\u00fcmetlerin direkt ekonomi politikas\u0131 tedbirlerini g\u00f6rmemezlikten gelip; 45 y\u0131l sonra, bir kez daha sadece \u2018para politikas\u0131\u2019yla m\u00fcdahale, \u2018stagflasyon\u2019a davetiye \u00e7\u0131karmakt\u0131r.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Stagflasyon, maliyet enflasyonu odakl\u0131 y\u00fcksek enflasyon sorununu, \u2018salt\u2019 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rarak, ekonomideki talebi, hane halk\u0131 t\u00fcketim ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 bask\u0131layarak kontrol alt\u0131na alma gayretlerinin, e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak a\u011f\u0131r ekonomik durgunluk (resesyon) ve i\u015fsizlik sorununu da b\u00fcy\u00fctmesi anlam\u0131na gelir. Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Powell, Fed ekonomistlerinin Amerikan ekonomisine y\u00f6nelik okumalar\u0131nda, b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendi ve i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan, \u2018\u00f6nden y\u00fcklemeli\u2019 faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n, 1994\u2019den bu yanaki en y\u00fcksek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda devam edecek y\u00fcksek faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 karar\u0131n\u0131n tolere edilebilece\u011fini belirtiyor. Piyasa ekonomistleri de, her zamanki gibi Fed\u2019i a\u011f\u0131r bir resesyonu g\u00f6ze alarak, h\u0131zl\u0131 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131na te\u015fvik ediyorlar.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> ABD\u2019nin, uluslararas\u0131 rezerv para olan dolar\u0131 basan \u00fclke olarak, kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131ks\u0131z dolar basarak, a\u011f\u0131r resesyonun sebep olaca\u011f\u0131 rekor federal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 finanse etmekten rahats\u0131z olmayaca\u011f\u0131 a\u015fikar. Ancak, s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir kalk\u0131nma hedeflerini, ye\u015fil kalk\u0131nma devrimini, \u2018iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi\u2019 ile m\u00fccadeleyi ciddi tehlikeye sokacak bu s\u00fcre\u00e7te, bu konular\u0131n hi\u00e7 g\u00fcndemde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 1970\u2019ler d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131 tekrarlamak m\u00fcmk\u00fcn m\u00fc; birlikte g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>D\u00dcNYA BANKASI: STAGFLASYON R\u0130SK\u0130 ARTIYOR<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, OECD ve IMF gibi \u00f6nceki hafta yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 son \u2018K\u00fcresel Ekonomik G\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm Raporu\u2019nda, k\u00fcresel enflasyon \u015foku nedeniyle parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma h\u0131zland\u0131ran ve\/veya h\u0131zland\u0131rmay\u0131 g\u00fcndemine alan kimi merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n para politikas\u0131 tedbirlerinin sebep olaca\u011f\u0131 a\u011f\u0131r resesyonun, y\u00fckseli\u015fini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek k\u00fcresel enflasyon ve i\u015fsizlik sorunu ile birlikte \u2018staglasyon riski\u2019ni de art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulad\u0131. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n raporunda i\u015faret etti\u011fi \u2018stagflasyon riski\u2019, ayn\u0131 zamanda iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fini durdurmak i\u00e7in at\u0131lmas\u0131 gereken ad\u0131mlar\u0131 da sekteye u\u011fratabilir. D\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen kimi merkez bankalar\u0131, bu y\u00f6n\u00fcyle, s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f para politikas\u0131yla a\u011f\u0131r resesyonu g\u00f6ze al\u0131rken, enflasyonu h\u0131zla a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmeye odaklan\u0131rken; ayn\u0131 zamanda, a\u011f\u0131r bir i\u015fsizli\u011fi ve yery\u00fcz\u00fcn\u00fc koruyacak yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n sekteye u\u011framas\u0131n\u0131 da g\u00f6ze al\u0131yorlar.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"fed-stagflasyon-riskini-goze-aldi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Fed, stagflasyon riskini g\u00f6ze ald\u0131","meta_description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1071,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}