{"status":true,"post":{"id":36918,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-02-06 13:18:00","created_at":"2023-02-06T10:18:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-02-06T10:18:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":36918,"is_featured":0,"title":"Fed faiz karar\u0131 ve etkileri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Fed, piyasa beklentilerine paralel davranarak federal fon faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 4.50-4.75\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Fed, bu faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ile birlikte son 6 toplant\u0131d\u0131r faiz art\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 alm\u0131\u015f oldu. Banka daha \u00f6nce faizi 4 kez 75 puan ve aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 50 baz puan art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Piyasa bu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 bekledi\u011fi i\u00e7in s\u00f6z konusu art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Piyasan\u0131n as\u0131l sorgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam edip etmeyece\u011fiydi. Piyasa, Fed mart ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 pas ge\u00e7er ve hatta y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru da faiz indirimi yapabilir beklentisine sahipti.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu beklenti hem borsalara hem de emtialara yar\u0131yordu. Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 demek, bu piyasalarda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. O zaman da ABD enflasyonu global ekonomiye at\u0131yor ve kendisi enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebiliyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc dolar baz\u0131nda fiyatlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyordu. Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi ise dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor ve enflasyon i\u00e7in tehdit olu\u015fmas\u0131na neden oluyordu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n oy birli\u011fi ile al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131, faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na da devam edilece\u011fi vurgusunun yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KONTROLL\u00dc P\u0130YASA \u0130MAJI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Powell a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda; \u201cDaha yava\u015f h\u0131zla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bize hedeflerimize do\u011fru ilerlemeyi daha iyi de\u011ferlendirme imkan\u0131 veriyor\u201d diyerek, bundan sonra 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131m olabilece\u011finin de sinyalini verdi. B\u00f6ylece enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde 2 hedefine uygun hareketler olana kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fi vurgusunu da yapm\u0131\u015f oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu esnada piyasalarda ilgin\u00e7 hareketler g\u00f6rd\u00fck. ABD\u2019de faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131 Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde faiz indirimi yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yordu ve aral\u0131k sonu i\u00e7in faiz beklentisi Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde oldu\u011fu gibi y\u00fczde 4,486 seviyesindeydi. Bu durum \u00e7ok ilgin\u00e7; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klama, gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik beklentilerde bozulmaya yol a\u00e7mam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdilik a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 piyasada gelebilecek bozulma, bir \u015fekilde vadeli kontratlarla durdurulmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durum a\u00e7\u0131klamalara g\u00f6re pek de normal de\u011fil. Kontroll\u00fc bir piyasa imaj\u0131 vermi\u015f oldu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Powell konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, mart ay\u0131nda \u00f6nlerine gelecek verilere bak\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi. B\u00f6ylece verilere g\u00f6re politikalar tekrar g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilecek. Ancak y\u0131ll\u0131k 2 enflasyon hedefine g\u00f6re h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek say\u0131lan enflasyon nedeniyle nerede duraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 enflasyonun seyri belirleyecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Kendileri de h\u00e2l\u00e2 gelecekle ilgili net bir tahmine sahip olmad\u0131klar\u0131ndan her veri geldi\u011finde durumu tekrar de\u011ferlendirecekleri mesaj\u0131 veriyorlar.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

FA\u0130Z \u0130ND\u0130R\u0130M\u0130 S\u00d6Z KONUSU DE\u011e\u0130L<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalardan g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u015fudur; ABD g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar istemeye devam ediyor. Piyasa beklentileri nedeniyle zay\u0131flayan dolar, faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 getirmi\u015f gibi. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmazsa enflasyon tekrar art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ebilir. Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m furyas\u0131na kat\u0131lmayan ECB nedeniyle Euro\/dolar paritesinin 1\u2019in alt\u0131n\u0131 denedi\u011fini unutmayal\u0131m. O zaman Avrupa\u2019da enflasyon rekor k\u0131rmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Kur art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bizde de nelere yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hep birlikte g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te ABD\u2019nin dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131lmak i\u00e7in her t\u00fcrl\u00fc f\u0131rsat\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ancak alt\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f bu oyunu zorluyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdilik enflasyon talebi nedeniyle agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 gelmese de faiz indirimlerinin hen\u00fcz s\u00f6z konusu olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla ifade edebiliriz.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"fed-faiz-karari-ve-etkileri","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1778,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":37044,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":36918,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Fed faiz karar\u0131 ve etkileri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Fed, piyasa beklentilerine paralel davranarak federal fon faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 25 baz puan art\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 4.50-4.75\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Fed, bu faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 ile birlikte son 6 toplant\u0131d\u0131r faiz art\u0131r\u0131m karar\u0131 alm\u0131\u015f oldu. Banka daha \u00f6nce faizi 4 kez 75 puan ve aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 50 baz puan art\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Piyasa bu a\u00e7\u0131klamay\u0131 bekledi\u011fi i\u00e7in s\u00f6z konusu art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 fiyatlam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Piyasan\u0131n as\u0131l sorgulad\u0131\u011f\u0131, Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam edip etmeyece\u011fiydi. Piyasa, Fed mart ay\u0131nda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 pas ge\u00e7er ve hatta y\u0131l sonuna do\u011fru da faiz indirimi yapabilir beklentisine sahipti.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu beklenti hem borsalara hem de emtialara yar\u0131yordu. Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 demek, bu piyasalarda sat\u0131\u015f bask\u0131s\u0131 ve dolar\u0131n de\u011fer kazanmas\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. O zaman da ABD enflasyonu global ekonomiye at\u0131yor ve kendisi enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrebiliyor. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc dolar baz\u0131nda fiyatlar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyordu. Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisi ise dolar\u0131 zay\u0131flat\u0131yor ve enflasyon i\u00e7in tehdit olu\u015fmas\u0131na neden oluyordu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Gelen a\u00e7\u0131klamalara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda; faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n oy birli\u011fi ile al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131, faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na da devam edilece\u011fi vurgusunun yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 ifade edildi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KONTROLL\u00dc P\u0130YASA \u0130MAJI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

FOMC toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda Powell a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda; \u201cDaha yava\u015f h\u0131zla faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 bize hedeflerimize do\u011fru ilerlemeyi daha iyi de\u011ferlendirme imkan\u0131 veriyor\u201d diyerek, bundan sonra 25 baz puan art\u0131r\u0131m olabilece\u011finin de sinyalini verdi. B\u00f6ylece enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnde 2 hedefine uygun hareketler olana kadar faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n devam edece\u011fi vurgusunu da yapm\u0131\u015f oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu esnada piyasalarda ilgin\u00e7 hareketler g\u00f6rd\u00fck. ABD\u2019de faiz vadeli kontratlar\u0131 Fed\u2019in bu y\u0131l i\u00e7inde faiz indirimi yapaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 fiyatl\u0131yordu ve aral\u0131k sonu i\u00e7in faiz beklentisi Fed karar\u0131 \u00f6ncesinde oldu\u011fu gibi y\u00fczde 4,486 seviyesindeydi. Bu durum \u00e7ok ilgin\u00e7; \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klama, gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik beklentilerde bozulmaya yol a\u00e7mam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdilik a\u00e7\u0131klama sonras\u0131 piyasada gelebilecek bozulma, bir \u015fekilde vadeli kontratlarla durdurulmu\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Bu durum a\u00e7\u0131klamalara g\u00f6re pek de normal de\u011fil. Kontroll\u00fc bir piyasa imaj\u0131 vermi\u015f oldu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Powell konu\u015fmas\u0131nda, mart ay\u0131nda \u00f6nlerine gelecek verilere bak\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izdi. B\u00f6ylece verilere g\u00f6re politikalar tekrar g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irilecek. Ancak y\u0131ll\u0131k 2 enflasyon hedefine g\u00f6re h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek say\u0131lan enflasyon nedeniyle nerede duraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 enflasyonun seyri belirleyecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Kendileri de h\u00e2l\u00e2 gelecekle ilgili net bir tahmine sahip olmad\u0131klar\u0131ndan her veri geldi\u011finde durumu tekrar de\u011ferlendirecekleri mesaj\u0131 veriyorlar.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

FA\u0130Z \u0130ND\u0130R\u0130M\u0130 S\u00d6Z KONUSU DE\u011e\u0130L<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalardan g\u00f6r\u00fclen \u015fudur; ABD g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc dolar istemeye devam ediyor. Piyasa beklentileri nedeniyle zay\u0131flayan dolar, faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131na devam a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131 getirmi\u015f gibi. Dolar g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmazsa enflasyon tekrar art\u0131\u015fa ge\u00e7ebilir. Faiz art\u0131r\u0131m furyas\u0131na kat\u0131lmayan ECB nedeniyle Euro\/dolar paritesinin 1\u2019in alt\u0131n\u0131 denedi\u011fini unutmayal\u0131m. O zaman Avrupa\u2019da enflasyon rekor k\u0131rmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Kur art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n bizde de nelere yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 hep birlikte g\u00f6rd\u00fck.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcre\u00e7te ABD\u2019nin dolar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc k\u0131lmak i\u00e7in her t\u00fcrl\u00fc f\u0131rsat\u0131 de\u011ferlendirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015faca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ancak alt\u0131na ge\u00e7i\u015f bu oyunu zorluyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdilik enflasyon talebi nedeniyle agresif faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 gelmese de faiz indirimlerinin hen\u00fcz s\u00f6z konusu olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 rahatl\u0131kla ifade edebiliriz.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"fed-faiz-karari-ve-etkileri","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1778,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}