{"status":true,"post":{"id":16590,"user_id":22,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:10:06","created_at":"2017-05-22T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:10:06.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":16590,"is_featured":0,"title":"Euro dolar paritesi nereye?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Son g\u00fcnlerde Euro dolar paritesinde genel olarak Euro lehine bir hareketlenme g\u00f6zlemlenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu hareketlenmenin ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131 olarak Fransa Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinin ilk turunda Jean-Marie Le Pen\u2019in ikinci tura kalmakla beraber, ilk turda beklenenin alt\u0131nda oy almas\u0131 ile cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131n kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yd\u0131. \u0130lk tur sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 belli olana kadar Avrupa\u2019daki \u0131rk\u00e7\u0131 geli\u015fmenin neredeyse \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc konumunda olan ve bu nedenle de t\u00fcm Avrupa i\u00e7in bir nevi \u0131rk\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc durumunda bulunan <\/span><span class=\"large\">Le Pen\u2019in Fransa\u2019n\u0131n yeni cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilmesi durumunda AB\u2019nin ve Avrupa Para Birli\u011fi\u2019nin h\u0131zla da\u011f\u0131lma s\u00fcrecine girmesi art\u0131k ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacakt\u0131. Zira, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l haziran ay\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere\u2019de yap\u0131lan referandumda AB\u2019den \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ile Euro\u2019nun ve AB\u2019nin gelece\u011fi \u00e7ok ciddi olarak tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaya ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fransa Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinde de <\/span><span class=\"large\">Le Pen\u2019in kazanmas\u0131 halinde bu Almanya ve \u0130talya gibi \u00f6nc\u00fc di\u011fer \u00fclkelerdeki se\u00e7imleri de etkileyerek AB\u2019nin ve Para Birli\u011fi\u2019nin h\u0131zla bir da\u011f\u0131lma s\u00fcrecine girme tehlikesi netle\u015fecekti. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Fransa se\u00e7imlerinde yeni cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilen Emmanel Macron\u2019un esasen do\u011frudan bir siyasi parti ile ili\u015fkisinin olmamas\u0131 ve vadetti\u011fi ekonomik reform s\u00f6ylemleri ile \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karak cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilmesi ile yak\u0131n gelecek bak\u0131m\u0131ndan AB\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lma s\u00fcrecine girme riskinin ertelendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc belirgin hale gelmi\u015f oldu. Esasen Macron da ne pahas\u0131na olursa olsun AB ve Para Birli\u011fi\u2019nin devam\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir s\u00f6ylemde bulunmuyor. Do\u011fal olarak Fransa\u2019n\u0131n kalk\u0131nmas\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da Fransa menfaatleri neyi gerektiriyorsa onun yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. B\u00f6yle olmas\u0131 da zaten i\u015fin do\u011fas\u0131 gere\u011fidir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>ABD GEL\u0130\u015eMELER\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Peki, bu sonu\u00e7lar tek ba\u015f\u0131na Euro\u2019nun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni mi? Elbette ba\u015fka nedenler de var. \u00d6zellikle son g\u00fcnlerde paritenin 1.11 \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131nda son a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD verilerinin beklenene g\u00f6re biraz daha zay\u0131f \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ile daha \u00f6nce neredeyse kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131lan ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in gelecek ayki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flamas\u0131 en \u00f6nemli etken oldu. Bir yandan da ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n CIA direkt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6revden almas\u0131 sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te bas\u0131na yans\u0131yan konular buradaki di\u011fer \u00f6nemli etken oldu. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Piyasalar, bir yandan da yeni ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck icraatlar\u0131 itibar\u0131yla beklenenin aksine, performans\u0131 en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ABD ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer almas\u0131, di\u011fer yandan ABD ad\u0131na son s\u00f6z\u00fcn Ba\u015fkan\u2019dan ziyade ABD sisteminin kurumlar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zlemlemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Do\u011fal olarak da Ba\u015fkan ile kurumlar aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumsuzluklar i\u00e7erece\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7ilecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Euro dolar paritesinde son 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k harekete bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda 2012 may\u0131s ay\u0131nda 1.27\u2019li seviyelerden ba\u015flayan, genel itibar\u0131yla art\u0131\u015f trendi 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 ocak ay\u0131nda 1.37\u2019li seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 1.35-1.39 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyreden bu trend 2014 May\u0131s ay\u0131ndan itibaren h\u0131zla bir gev\u015feme s\u00fcrecine girdi. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 ocak ay\u0131nda 1.05 ile dip yapan parite, uzunca bir s\u00fcre tekrar k\u0131smi bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle 1.10 ve \u00fczeri seyretti. Kas\u0131m 2016\u2019dan itibaren de h\u0131zla 1.10\u2019un alt\u0131na inerek yine yakla\u015f\u0131k 6 ayl\u0131k bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te 1.06-1.08 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyretti. Ta ki, yukar\u0131da belirtti\u011fimiz geli\u015fmelere kadar\u2026 <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>BUNDAN SONRA NE OLACAK?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Euro dolar paritesindeki dalgalanman\u0131n k\u0131sa vadelerde devam edece\u011fini ancak ABD\u2019deki geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn daha da netle\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. AB taraf\u0131n\u0131n her ne kadar ekonomik anlamda s\u0131rad\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir performans beklentisi olmasa da \u015fimdilik da\u011f\u0131lma s\u00fcrecinin ertelenmesi ve parasal geni\u015flemenin yava\u015flamas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bu de\u011ferlenme s\u00fcrecinin bir s\u00fcre daha devam edece\u011fini, Euro\u2019nun 1.10-1.20 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz bu s\u00fcrecin 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde tekrar AB da\u011f\u0131lma s\u00fcreci tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile dolar lehine d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"euro-dolar-paritesi-nereye","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Euro dolar paritesi nereye?","meta_description":"Osman Ar\u0131o\u011flu","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":144,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":22,"name":"OSMAN","surname":"ARIO\u011eLU","email":"osman-arioglu@gmail.com","slug":"osman-arioglu","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600PhnV7uz5limxSFX.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:41.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":16689,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":16590,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Euro dolar paritesi nereye?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Son g\u00fcnlerde Euro dolar paritesinde genel olarak Euro lehine bir hareketlenme g\u00f6zlemlenmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu hareketlenmenin ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 noktas\u0131 olarak Fransa Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinin ilk turunda Jean-Marie Le Pen\u2019in ikinci tura kalmakla beraber, ilk turda beklenenin alt\u0131nda oy almas\u0131 ile cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilme \u015fans\u0131n\u0131n kalmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131yd\u0131. \u0130lk tur sonu\u00e7lar\u0131 belli olana kadar Avrupa\u2019daki \u0131rk\u00e7\u0131 geli\u015fmenin neredeyse \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc konumunda olan ve bu nedenle de t\u00fcm Avrupa i\u00e7in bir nevi \u0131rk\u00e7\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fcs\u00fc durumunda bulunan <\/span><span class=\"large\">Le Pen\u2019in Fransa\u2019n\u0131n yeni cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilmesi durumunda AB\u2019nin ve Avrupa Para Birli\u011fi\u2019nin h\u0131zla da\u011f\u0131lma s\u00fcrecine girmesi art\u0131k ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacakt\u0131. Zira, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l haziran ay\u0131nda \u0130ngiltere\u2019de yap\u0131lan referandumda AB\u2019den \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir sonu\u00e7 \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ile Euro\u2019nun ve AB\u2019nin gelece\u011fi \u00e7ok ciddi olarak tart\u0131\u015f\u0131lmaya ba\u015flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Fransa Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imlerinde de <\/span><span class=\"large\">Le Pen\u2019in kazanmas\u0131 halinde bu Almanya ve \u0130talya gibi \u00f6nc\u00fc di\u011fer \u00fclkelerdeki se\u00e7imleri de etkileyerek AB\u2019nin ve Para Birli\u011fi\u2019nin h\u0131zla bir da\u011f\u0131lma s\u00fcrecine girme tehlikesi netle\u015fecekti. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Fransa se\u00e7imlerinde yeni cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilen Emmanel Macron\u2019un esasen do\u011frudan bir siyasi parti ile ili\u015fkisinin olmamas\u0131 ve vadetti\u011fi ekonomik reform s\u00f6ylemleri ile \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131karak cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 olarak se\u00e7ilmesi ile yak\u0131n gelecek bak\u0131m\u0131ndan AB\u2019nin da\u011f\u0131lma s\u00fcrecine girme riskinin ertelendi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc belirgin hale gelmi\u015f oldu. Esasen Macron da ne pahas\u0131na olursa olsun AB ve Para Birli\u011fi\u2019nin devam\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir s\u00f6ylemde bulunmuyor. Do\u011fal olarak Fransa\u2019n\u0131n kalk\u0131nmas\u0131 ve g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla da Fransa menfaatleri neyi gerektiriyorsa onun yap\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 mesaj\u0131n\u0131 veriyor. B\u00f6yle olmas\u0131 da zaten i\u015fin do\u011fas\u0131 gere\u011fidir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>ABD GEL\u0130\u015eMELER\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Peki, bu sonu\u00e7lar tek ba\u015f\u0131na Euro\u2019nun dolar kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n nedeni mi? Elbette ba\u015fka nedenler de var. \u00d6zellikle son g\u00fcnlerde paritenin 1.11 \u00fczerine ta\u015f\u0131nmas\u0131nda son a\u00e7\u0131klanan ABD verilerinin beklenene g\u00f6re biraz daha zay\u0131f \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ile daha \u00f6nce neredeyse kesin g\u00f6z\u00fcyle bak\u0131lan ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in gelecek ayki toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yapaca\u011f\u0131 beklentisinin \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde zay\u0131flamas\u0131 en \u00f6nemli etken oldu. Bir yandan da ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Trump\u2019\u0131n CIA direkt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6revden almas\u0131 sonras\u0131 s\u00fcre\u00e7te bas\u0131na yans\u0131yan konular buradaki di\u011fer \u00f6nemli etken oldu. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Piyasalar, bir yandan da yeni ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131\u2019n\u0131n ilk 100 g\u00fcnl\u00fck icraatlar\u0131 itibar\u0131yla beklenenin aksine, performans\u0131 en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ABD ba\u015fkanlar\u0131 aras\u0131nda yer almas\u0131, di\u011fer yandan ABD ad\u0131na son s\u00f6z\u00fcn Ba\u015fkan\u2019dan ziyade ABD sisteminin kurumlar\u0131nda oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zlemlemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Do\u011fal olarak da Ba\u015fkan ile kurumlar aras\u0131ndaki \u00e7at\u0131\u015fman\u0131n ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan olumsuzluklar i\u00e7erece\u011fi bir d\u00f6nemden ge\u00e7ilecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Euro dolar paritesinde son 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k harekete bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda 2012 may\u0131s ay\u0131nda 1.27\u2019li seviyelerden ba\u015flayan, genel itibar\u0131yla art\u0131\u015f trendi 2013 y\u0131l\u0131 ocak ay\u0131nda 1.37\u2019li seviyelere \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. 1.35-1.39 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyreden bu trend 2014 May\u0131s ay\u0131ndan itibaren h\u0131zla bir gev\u015feme s\u00fcrecine girdi. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 ocak ay\u0131nda 1.05 ile dip yapan parite, uzunca bir s\u00fcre tekrar k\u0131smi bir geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fle 1.10 ve \u00fczeri seyretti. Kas\u0131m 2016\u2019dan itibaren de h\u0131zla 1.10\u2019un alt\u0131na inerek yine yakla\u015f\u0131k 6 ayl\u0131k bir s\u00fcre\u00e7te 1.06-1.08 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda seyretti. Ta ki, yukar\u0131da belirtti\u011fimiz geli\u015fmelere kadar\u2026 <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>BUNDAN SONRA NE OLACAK?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Euro dolar paritesindeki dalgalanman\u0131n k\u0131sa vadelerde devam edece\u011fini ancak ABD\u2019deki geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn daha da netle\u015fece\u011fini s\u00f6yleyebiliriz. AB taraf\u0131n\u0131n her ne kadar ekonomik anlamda s\u0131rad\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir performans beklentisi olmasa da \u015fimdilik da\u011f\u0131lma s\u00fcrecinin ertelenmesi ve parasal geni\u015flemenin yava\u015flamas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bu de\u011ferlenme s\u00fcrecinin bir s\u00fcre daha devam edece\u011fini, Euro\u2019nun 1.10-1.20 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fimiz bu s\u00fcrecin 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7erisinde tekrar AB da\u011f\u0131lma s\u00fcreci tart\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile dolar lehine d\u00f6nebilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"euro-dolar-paritesi-nereye","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Euro dolar paritesi nereye?","meta_description":"Osman Ar\u0131o\u011flu","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":144,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}