{"status":true,"post":{"id":12704,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:18:58","created_at":"2015-10-18T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:18:58.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":12704,"is_featured":0,"title":"Enseyi karartmayaca\u011f\u0131z ve gelece\u011fi konu\u015faca\u011f\u0131z","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Ankara'n\u0131n g\u00f6be\u011finde 100\u2019e yak\u0131n insan\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 kaybetti\u011fimiz bir ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 haberi ile sars\u0131ld\u0131k. ABD'de binlerce insan\u0131n ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 yitirdi\u011fi 11 Eyl\u00fcl 2001'deki ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 veya \u0130ngiltere'nin y\u0131llarca \u00f6nemli say\u0131da insan\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011fi \u0130rlanda Kurtulu\u015f Ordusu (IRA) ve ard\u0131ndan 2000'li y\u0131llarda El-Kaide sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, elbette ABD ve \u0130ngiltere gibi \u00fclkeleri de sarst\u0131, toplumda bu t\u00fcr sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131 arkas\u0131 kesilmeyecek mi t\u00fcr\u00fcnden endi\u015felere sebep oldu. Bununla birlikte, \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenlik birimleri istihbarat zafiyetinin nerede ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok iyi tespit edip, gereken tedbirleri al\u0131p, bu t\u00fcr sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nl\u00fcyorlar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle, 100\u2019e yak\u0131n insan\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 kaybetmemizin nedeninin bizim bir Ortado\u011fu \u00fclkesi olmam\u0131zdan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Ortado\u011fu'da zaten her g\u00fcn bu kadar say\u0131da insan\u0131n ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 yitirdi\u011fine dair yakla\u015f\u0131mlar, en basit ifadesiyle \u00fclkemize ve T\u00fcrk toplumuna a\u011f\u0131r haks\u0131zl\u0131kt\u0131r. Nitekim, 15-20 Kas\u0131m 2003 tarihlerinde, El-Kaide'nin 5 g\u00fcn arayla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi iki bombal\u0131 eylem sonras\u0131nda, T\u00fcrk istihbarat\u0131n\u0131n ve g\u00fcvenlik birimlerinin tedbirleri ile T\u00fcrkiye bu t\u00fcr bombal\u0131 eylemlerin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bin y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet gelene\u011fi ve Avrasya'n\u0131n en demokrasisi ve ekonomisi oturmu\u015f \u00fclkesi olarak, bu belan\u0131n da \u00fcstesinden gelece\u011fiz. T\u00fcrkiye'yi, bir \u015feyleri mazur g\u00f6rmek ad\u0131na, Ortado\u011fu \u00fclkesine benzetirsek, o zaman o \u00fclkelere ilham kayna\u011f\u0131 olma becerimizi de h\u0131zla kaybederiz. Tersine, dimdik ayakta durup, gelece\u011fe odaklanaca\u011f\u0131z. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bizim ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fumuzu g\u00f6rmeye pek \u00e7ok \u00fclkenin ihtiyac\u0131 var ve bu nedenle ekonomik ve demokratik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc ayn\u0131 azim ve kararl\u0131l\u0131kla s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmemiz gerekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2016 VE 2017 B\u00dcY\u00dcME Y\u00dcZDE 3-4 HEDEFLENMEL\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ci\u011ferimizi da\u011flayan, kalbimizi s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran ter\u00f6r eylemine ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrkiye'nin bug\u00fcn ve gelece\u011fini konu\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fiz. Kalk\u0131nma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131'n\u0131n Orta Vadeli Program\u0131 (OVP), 2016-2018 d\u00f6nemini kapsayacak \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Mevcut i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f siyasi ortam\u0131n OVP \u00fczerinde d\u00f6rt d\u00f6rtl\u00fck bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma yap\u0131lmas\u0131na izin vermedi\u011fi kanaatindeyim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2016-2018 OVP'sinde yer alan gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck makro ekonomik hedeflere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in daha \u00f6zenli; ama 2017 ve 2018 hedefleri i\u00e7in daha az \u00f6zenli, bilhassa 'morali y\u00fcksek tutal\u0131m' t\u00fcr\u00fcnden bir dokunu\u015f kendisini hissettiriyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6ncelikle, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin y\u00fczde 4'den y\u00fczde 3'e \u00e7ekilmesini do\u011fal kar\u015f\u0131lamak ve 'enseyi karartmamak' gerekiyor. Daha \u00f6nce 2015 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3 civar\u0131ndaki bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin makul ve akla yak\u0131n geldi\u011fini, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler ve co\u011frafyalar i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekildi\u011fi bir konjonkt\u00fcrde, T\u00fcrkiye'nin yine de y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin anlaml\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015ftim. Bununla birlikte, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131'n\u0131n (FED) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 ve \u00c7in gibi ekonomilerin k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi besleme etkilerinin k\u0131smen zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 bir konjonkt\u00fcrde, 2016-2018 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerinin s\u0131ras\u0131yla, y\u00fczde 4, 4.5 ve 5 olarak s\u0131ralanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zensiz bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fcm. Kan\u0131mca, 2016 ve 2017 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3 ile 3.5 aras\u0131, 2018 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 3.5 ile 4 aras\u0131 hedefler daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olabilirdi. \u00dcstelik, net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi hi\u00e7 katk\u0131da bulunmayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, bu derece iddial\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleri, ciddi oranda i\u00e7 talebe dayal\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefine i\u015faret eder ki, T\u00fcrk halk\u0131n\u0131 ve \u015firketlerimizi \u00f6zellikle 2016 ve 2017'de bor\u00e7lanmaya devam etmeye te\u015fvik etmek ciddi sorunlara sebep olabilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>VER\u0130LER\u0130N GER\u0130LEMES\u0130NDEN END\u0130\u015eE ETMEYEL\u0130M<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Piyasa de\u011feri ya da nominal olarak, dolar cinsinden Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la\u2019nin (GSYH), 820 milyar dolardan 700 milyar dolarlara geriledi\u011fini yans\u0131tmamak i\u00e7in sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesi y\u00f6ntemine (SAGP) g\u00f6re hesaplanm\u0131\u015f dolar cinsinden GSYH ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na GSYH verisi payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Bu kendini kand\u0131rmak gibi. 2001 krizinde bu memleketin milli gelirinin 130 milyar dolara kadar geriledi\u011fine, ard\u0131ndan da 200 milyar dolarlara yeniden toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, AK Parti d\u00f6neminde de 800 milyar dolarlara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131na birlikte \u015fahit olduk. Elbette, k\u00fcresel ekonomik ve siyasi geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, milli gelirin dolar cinsinden geriledi\u011fi g\u00fcnler de g\u00f6rebiliriz. Ama baz\u0131 teknik y\u00f6ntemler ile bunu gizlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rsak, inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 hale gelir.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"enseyi-karartmayacagiz-ve-gelecegi-konusacagiz","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Enseyi karartmayaca\u011f\u0131z ve gelece\u011fi konu\u015faca\u011f\u0131z","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1083,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":12803,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":12704,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Enseyi karartmayaca\u011f\u0131z ve gelece\u011fi konu\u015faca\u011f\u0131z","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Ankara'n\u0131n g\u00f6be\u011finde 100\u2019e yak\u0131n insan\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 kaybetti\u011fimiz bir ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 haberi ile sars\u0131ld\u0131k. ABD'de binlerce insan\u0131n ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 yitirdi\u011fi 11 Eyl\u00fcl 2001'deki ter\u00f6r sald\u0131r\u0131s\u0131 veya \u0130ngiltere'nin y\u0131llarca \u00f6nemli say\u0131da insan\u0131n\u0131 kaybetti\u011fi \u0130rlanda Kurtulu\u015f Ordusu (IRA) ve ard\u0131ndan 2000'li y\u0131llarda El-Kaide sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131, elbette ABD ve \u0130ngiltere gibi \u00fclkeleri de sarst\u0131, toplumda bu t\u00fcr sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n ard\u0131 arkas\u0131 kesilmeyecek mi t\u00fcr\u00fcnden endi\u015felere sebep oldu. Bununla birlikte, \u00fclkenin g\u00fcvenlik birimleri istihbarat zafiyetinin nerede ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7ok iyi tespit edip, gereken tedbirleri al\u0131p, bu t\u00fcr sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131n tekrarlanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nl\u00fcyorlar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle, 100\u2019e yak\u0131n insan\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 kaybetmemizin nedeninin bizim bir Ortado\u011fu \u00fclkesi olmam\u0131zdan kaynakland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve Ortado\u011fu'da zaten her g\u00fcn bu kadar say\u0131da insan\u0131n ya\u015fam\u0131n\u0131 yitirdi\u011fine dair yakla\u015f\u0131mlar, en basit ifadesiyle \u00fclkemize ve T\u00fcrk toplumuna a\u011f\u0131r haks\u0131zl\u0131kt\u0131r. Nitekim, 15-20 Kas\u0131m 2003 tarihlerinde, El-Kaide'nin 5 g\u00fcn arayla ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi\u011fi iki bombal\u0131 eylem sonras\u0131nda, T\u00fcrk istihbarat\u0131n\u0131n ve g\u00fcvenlik birimlerinin tedbirleri ile T\u00fcrkiye bu t\u00fcr bombal\u0131 eylemlerin \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bin y\u0131ll\u0131k devlet gelene\u011fi ve Avrasya'n\u0131n en demokrasisi ve ekonomisi oturmu\u015f \u00fclkesi olarak, bu belan\u0131n da \u00fcstesinden gelece\u011fiz. T\u00fcrkiye'yi, bir \u015feyleri mazur g\u00f6rmek ad\u0131na, Ortado\u011fu \u00fclkesine benzetirsek, o zaman o \u00fclkelere ilham kayna\u011f\u0131 olma becerimizi de h\u0131zla kaybederiz. Tersine, dimdik ayakta durup, gelece\u011fe odaklanaca\u011f\u0131z. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc bizim ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 oldu\u011fumuzu g\u00f6rmeye pek \u00e7ok \u00fclkenin ihtiyac\u0131 var ve bu nedenle ekonomik ve demokratik d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcm\u00fcz\u00fc ayn\u0131 azim ve kararl\u0131l\u0131kla s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmemiz gerekiyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2016 VE 2017 B\u00dcY\u00dcME Y\u00dcZDE 3-4 HEDEFLENMEL\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Ci\u011ferimizi da\u011flayan, kalbimizi s\u0131k\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran ter\u00f6r eylemine ra\u011fmen, T\u00fcrkiye'nin bug\u00fcn ve gelece\u011fini konu\u015fmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fiz. Kalk\u0131nma Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131'n\u0131n Orta Vadeli Program\u0131 (OVP), 2016-2018 d\u00f6nemini kapsayacak \u015fekilde a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Mevcut i\u00e7 ve d\u0131\u015f siyasi ortam\u0131n OVP \u00fczerinde d\u00f6rt d\u00f6rtl\u00fck bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma yap\u0131lmas\u0131na izin vermedi\u011fi kanaatindeyim. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc 2016-2018 OVP'sinde yer alan gelece\u011fe d\u00f6n\u00fck makro ekonomik hedeflere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda, 2016 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in daha \u00f6zenli; ama 2017 ve 2018 hedefleri i\u00e7in daha az \u00f6zenli, bilhassa 'morali y\u00fcksek tutal\u0131m' t\u00fcr\u00fcnden bir dokunu\u015f kendisini hissettiriyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6ncelikle, 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisinin y\u00fczde 4'den y\u00fczde 3'e \u00e7ekilmesini do\u011fal kar\u015f\u0131lamak ve 'enseyi karartmamak' gerekiyor. Daha \u00f6nce 2015 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3 civar\u0131ndaki bir b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin makul ve akla yak\u0131n geldi\u011fini, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentilerinin t\u00fcm \u00fclkeler ve co\u011frafyalar i\u00e7in a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekildi\u011fi bir konjonkt\u00fcrde, T\u00fcrkiye'nin yine de y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin anlaml\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtmi\u015ftim. Bununla birlikte, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131'n\u0131n (FED) para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 ve \u00c7in gibi ekonomilerin k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi besleme etkilerinin k\u0131smen zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 bir konjonkt\u00fcrde, 2016-2018 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerinin s\u0131ras\u0131yla, y\u00fczde 4, 4.5 ve 5 olarak s\u0131ralanmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6zensiz bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma olarak g\u00f6rd\u00fcm. Kan\u0131mca, 2016 ve 2017 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3 ile 3.5 aras\u0131, 2018 i\u00e7in ise y\u00fczde 3.5 ile 4 aras\u0131 hedefler daha inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 olabilirdi. \u00dcstelik, net ihracat\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi hi\u00e7 katk\u0131da bulunmayaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde, bu derece iddial\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefleri, ciddi oranda i\u00e7 talebe dayal\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefine i\u015faret eder ki, T\u00fcrk halk\u0131n\u0131 ve \u015firketlerimizi \u00f6zellikle 2016 ve 2017'de bor\u00e7lanmaya devam etmeye te\u015fvik etmek ciddi sorunlara sebep olabilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>VER\u0130LER\u0130N GER\u0130LEMES\u0130NDEN END\u0130\u015eE ETMEYEL\u0130M<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Piyasa de\u011feri ya da nominal olarak, dolar cinsinden Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la\u2019nin (GSYH), 820 milyar dolardan 700 milyar dolarlara geriledi\u011fini yans\u0131tmamak i\u00e7in sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesi y\u00f6ntemine (SAGP) g\u00f6re hesaplanm\u0131\u015f dolar cinsinden GSYH ve ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na GSYH verisi payla\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. Bu kendini kand\u0131rmak gibi. 2001 krizinde bu memleketin milli gelirinin 130 milyar dolara kadar geriledi\u011fine, ard\u0131ndan da 200 milyar dolarlara yeniden toparland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, AK Parti d\u00f6neminde de 800 milyar dolarlara \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131na birlikte \u015fahit olduk. Elbette, k\u00fcresel ekonomik ve siyasi geli\u015fmelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, milli gelirin dolar cinsinden geriledi\u011fi g\u00fcnler de g\u00f6rebiliriz. Ama baz\u0131 teknik y\u00f6ntemler ile bunu gizlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131rsak, inand\u0131r\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131 hale gelir.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"enseyi-karartmayacagiz-ve-gelecegi-konusacagiz","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Enseyi karartmayaca\u011f\u0131z ve gelece\u011fi konu\u015faca\u011f\u0131z","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1083,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}