{"status":true,"post":{"id":53491,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-07-08 07:55:00","created_at":"2024-07-08T04:55:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-07-08T04:55:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":53491,"is_featured":0,"title":"Enflasyonda son durum","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"


<\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan Haziran 2024 t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verilerine g\u00f6re, enflasyonda \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Gerek TCMB Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 anketinde y\u00fczde 2.52 beklentisi, gerekse genel olarak piyasada y\u00fczde 2.20-2.50 civar\u0131nda gelece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen ayl\u0131k enflasyon verisi, beklentilerin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda geldi. B\u00fcltene g\u00f6re ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.64 gelen haziran ay\u0131 enflasyon verisi, piyasa beklentilerinin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

AA Finans\u2019\u0131n 15 ekonomistle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ankette en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck y\u00fczde 1.90, en y\u00fcksek ise y\u00fczde 3 beklendi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130TO taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u0130stanbul \u00dccretliler Ge\u00e7inme Endeksi, bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3.42 artt\u0131. Daha detayda ise konut harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8.01, ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve haberle\u015fme harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.06, g\u0131da harcamalar\u0131 grubunda y\u00fczde 2.66 gibi art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Toptan fiyatlarda bile ayl\u0131k kimyevi maddeler grubunda y\u00fczde 14.63, mensucat grubunda y\u00fczde 8.05, i\u015flenmemi\u015f maddeler grubunda y\u00fczde 7.37 gibi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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T\u00fcrkiye Ziraat Odalar\u0131 Birli\u011fi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, haziran ay\u0131nda marketlerde bulunan 37 \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn 23\u2019\u00fcnde fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtti. Haziranda limonun fiyat\u0131 y\u00fczde 65.7, Antep f\u0131st\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 44 artt\u0131. Bunun gibi daha bir\u00e7ok \u00f6rneklerin olmas\u0131, beklentilerin de y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/span><\/p>

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T\u00dcFE BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130N ALTINDA<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Gelelim T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda geli\u015fimine\u2026 2024 Ocak ay\u0131ndan itibaren ayl\u0131k bazda T\u00dcFE geli\u015fimi s\u0131rayla \u015fu \u015fekilde: Y\u00fczde 6.70, y\u00fczde 4.53, y\u00fczde 3.16, y\u00fczde 3.18, y\u00fczde 3.37 ve haziran ay\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 1.64 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Haziran ay\u0131 yurti\u00e7i \u00dcFE rakam\u0131 bile y\u00fczde 1.38 olarak gelmi\u015fken, T\u00dcFE verisinin bu kadar d\u00fc\u015fmesi tam bir s\u00fcrpriz oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Haziran ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisi neden beklentilerin alt\u0131nda geldi? \u015eimdi detaylara bakal\u0131m. B\u00fcltene g\u00f6re ayl\u0131k bazda giyim ve ayakkab\u0131 grubu fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.58 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu. Ula\u015ft\u0131rma grubunda ise y\u00fczde 0.13 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Alkoll\u00fc i\u00e7ecekler ve t\u00fct\u00fcn grubunun ayl\u0131k bazda sadece y\u00fczde 0.07 artmas\u0131, e\u011flence ve k\u00fclt\u00fcr grubunda ayl\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0.26\u2019da kalmas\u0131, ev e\u015fyas\u0131nda ayl\u0131k enflasyonun sadece y\u00fczde 1.62 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, haziran ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisinin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelmesine sebep oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Sa\u011fl\u0131k grubunda y\u00fczde 1.69, g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler grubunda y\u00fczde 1.78 art\u0131\u015f, enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmesine destek verdi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Konut grubunda fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 3.79, e\u011fitim grubunda y\u00fczde 3.47, lokanta ve otellerin y\u00fczde 3.09 ayl\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, hissedilen enflasyonun \u00e7ok daha fazla olmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda enflasyon y\u00fczde 75.45\u2019ten y\u00fczde 71.60\u2019a 4 puana yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

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D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e TREND\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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3 Haziran tarihli, \u201cHaziran ay\u0131nda bizi neler bekliyor ve etkileri ne olur? \u201cba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131m\u0131zda enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin ba\u015f\u0131na gelmi\u015f olabilece\u011fimizi ifade etmi\u015ftik. Bundan sonra en az 2 ay y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f gelme ihtimali, kurlarda y\u00fckseli\u015f olmamas\u0131 kayd\u0131yla \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu arada ayn\u0131 yaz\u0131m\u0131zda belirtti\u011fimiz \u2018gri liste\u2019den \u00e7\u0131kma beklentimiz de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile birlikte gri listeden de \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131, TCMB\u2019nin de net rezervlerini art\u0131ya \u00e7evirmesi, gelecekte not art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ayak sesleri olabilir. \u015eimdi yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na bakaca\u011f\u0131z. D\u00f6viz giri\u015fi devam ederse d\u00f6vizde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 ile birlikte enflasyonda da sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri g\u00f6rebiliriz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

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Bu durumda belki de 2024 Ekim ay\u0131nda faiz indirimlerini konu\u015fmam\u0131z m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"enflasyonda-son-durum","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1720386000UKMcrJrxvpMMT7u.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":11706,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":53617,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":53491,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Enflasyonda son durum","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"


<\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan Haziran 2024 t\u00fcketici fiyat endeksi (T\u00dcFE) verilerine g\u00f6re, enflasyonda \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Gerek TCMB Piyasa Kat\u0131l\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131 anketinde y\u00fczde 2.52 beklentisi, gerekse genel olarak piyasada y\u00fczde 2.20-2.50 civar\u0131nda gelece\u011fi d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fclen ayl\u0131k enflasyon verisi, beklentilerin \u00e7ok alt\u0131nda geldi. B\u00fcltene g\u00f6re ayl\u0131k y\u00fczde 1.64 gelen haziran ay\u0131 enflasyon verisi, piyasa beklentilerinin olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

AA Finans\u2019\u0131n 15 ekonomistle yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ankette en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck y\u00fczde 1.90, en y\u00fcksek ise y\u00fczde 3 beklendi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130TO taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan \u0130stanbul \u00dccretliler Ge\u00e7inme Endeksi, bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3.42 artt\u0131. Daha detayda ise konut harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 8.01, ula\u015ft\u0131rma ve haberle\u015fme harcamalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.06, g\u0131da harcamalar\u0131 grubunda y\u00fczde 2.66 gibi art\u0131\u015flar g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Toptan fiyatlarda bile ayl\u0131k kimyevi maddeler grubunda y\u00fczde 14.63, mensucat grubunda y\u00fczde 8.05, i\u015flenmemi\u015f maddeler grubunda y\u00fczde 7.37 gibi art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye Ziraat Odalar\u0131 Birli\u011fi yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, haziran ay\u0131nda marketlerde bulunan 37 \u00fcr\u00fcn\u00fcn 23\u2019\u00fcnde fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 oldu\u011funu belirtti. Haziranda limonun fiyat\u0131 y\u00fczde 65.7, Antep f\u0131st\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 44 artt\u0131. Bunun gibi daha bir\u00e7ok \u00f6rneklerin olmas\u0131, beklentilerin de y\u00fcksek olmas\u0131na neden oldu.<\/span><\/p>

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T\u00dcFE BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130N ALTINDA<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Gelelim T\u00dcFE\u2019nin ayl\u0131k bazda geli\u015fimine\u2026 2024 Ocak ay\u0131ndan itibaren ayl\u0131k bazda T\u00dcFE geli\u015fimi s\u0131rayla \u015fu \u015fekilde: Y\u00fczde 6.70, y\u00fczde 4.53, y\u00fczde 3.16, y\u00fczde 3.18, y\u00fczde 3.37 ve haziran ay\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 1.64 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Haziran ay\u0131 yurti\u00e7i \u00dcFE rakam\u0131 bile y\u00fczde 1.38 olarak gelmi\u015fken, T\u00dcFE verisinin bu kadar d\u00fc\u015fmesi tam bir s\u00fcrpriz oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Haziran ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisi neden beklentilerin alt\u0131nda geldi? \u015eimdi detaylara bakal\u0131m. B\u00fcltene g\u00f6re ayl\u0131k bazda giyim ve ayakkab\u0131 grubu fiyatlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.58 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f oldu. Ula\u015ft\u0131rma grubunda ise y\u00fczde 0.13 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Alkoll\u00fc i\u00e7ecekler ve t\u00fct\u00fcn grubunun ayl\u0131k bazda sadece y\u00fczde 0.07 artmas\u0131, e\u011flence ve k\u00fclt\u00fcr grubunda ayl\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0.26\u2019da kalmas\u0131, ev e\u015fyas\u0131nda ayl\u0131k enflasyonun sadece y\u00fczde 1.62 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi, haziran ay\u0131 T\u00dcFE verisinin beklentilerin alt\u0131nda gelmesine sebep oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Sa\u011fl\u0131k grubunda y\u00fczde 1.69, g\u0131da ve alkols\u00fcz i\u00e7ecekler grubunda y\u00fczde 1.78 art\u0131\u015f, enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck gelmesine destek verdi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Konut grubunda fiyatlar\u0131n y\u00fczde 3.79, e\u011fitim grubunda y\u00fczde 3.47, lokanta ve otellerin y\u00fczde 3.09 ayl\u0131k fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, hissedilen enflasyonun \u00e7ok daha fazla olmas\u0131na neden oluyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda enflasyon y\u00fczde 75.45\u2019ten y\u00fczde 71.60\u2019a 4 puana yak\u0131n d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc.<\/span><\/p>

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D\u00dc\u015e\u00dc\u015e TREND\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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3 Haziran tarihli, \u201cHaziran ay\u0131nda bizi neler bekliyor ve etkileri ne olur? \u201cba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 yaz\u0131m\u0131zda enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin ba\u015f\u0131na gelmi\u015f olabilece\u011fimizi ifade etmi\u015ftik. Bundan sonra en az 2 ay y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f gelme ihtimali, kurlarda y\u00fckseli\u015f olmamas\u0131 kayd\u0131yla \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu arada ayn\u0131 yaz\u0131m\u0131zda belirtti\u011fimiz \u2018gri liste\u2019den \u00e7\u0131kma beklentimiz de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin ba\u015flamas\u0131 ile birlikte gri listeden de \u00e7\u0131k\u0131lmas\u0131, TCMB\u2019nin de net rezervlerini art\u0131ya \u00e7evirmesi, gelecekte not art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ayak sesleri olabilir. \u015eimdi yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131na bakaca\u011f\u0131z. D\u00f6viz giri\u015fi devam ederse d\u00f6vizde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 ile birlikte enflasyonda da sert d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri g\u00f6rebiliriz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu durumda belki de 2024 Ekim ay\u0131nda faiz indirimlerini konu\u015fmam\u0131z m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"enflasyonda-son-durum","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1720386000UKMcrJrxvpMMT7u.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1720386000UKMcrJrxvpMMT7u.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":11706,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}