{"status":true,"post":{"id":35929,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-12-13 13:17:15","created_at":"2022-12-13T13:17:15.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-12-13T13:17:15.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":35929,"is_featured":0,"title":"Enflasyonda seyir nas\u0131l olacak?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"T\u00dc\u0130K, kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyon verisini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Veriye g\u00f6re T\u00dcFE, zirveden d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yaparak y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 85.51\u2019den 84.39 seviyesine geriledi.","content":"

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00dc\u0130K, kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyon verisini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Veriye g\u00f6re T\u00dcFE, zirveden d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yaparak y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 85.51\u2019den 84.39 seviyesine geriledi. Yurt i\u00e7i \u00dcFE ise ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde 157.69\u2019dan 136.02 seviyesine geriledi. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde TCMB taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n da 76.9\u2019dan 75.9 seviyesine geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu da d\u0131\u015f talepteki daralmadan bahsederek, faiz indiriminin gerek\u00e7esinin reel ekonomiyi desteklemek oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ifade etti.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00dcFE\u2019DE HIZLI GER\u0130LEME<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu durumda \u015funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz: Global resesyon korkusu ve ABD\u2019nin agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleri biraz frenleyecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Talepteki azalma kayg\u0131s\u0131 da \u00fcreticilerin elinde stok kalabilir kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u00fcretim h\u0131z\u0131nda bir yava\u015flama meydana geliyor. Hal b\u00f6yle olunca hammadde fiyatlar\u0131nda bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz gibi duruyor. O y\u00fczden t\u0131pk\u0131 kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi \u00dcFE oranlar\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir gerileme ya\u015fanacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2021 y\u0131l\u0131 aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda T\u00dcFE verisi y\u00fczde 13.58 gibi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2022 Ocak ay\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 11.10 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu aralar T\u00dcFE 3 civar\u0131nda geliyor. Kurlar\u0131n yatay seyretmesi, emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan zay\u0131flama, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat hareketlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Aral\u0131k ve ocak aylar\u0131nda T\u00dcFE rakamlar\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda 3 civar\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131karsa, y\u0131l sonu 73-74 civar\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bir T\u00dcFE verisi, ocak rakamlar\u0131 da dahil oldu\u011funda 70\u2019in alt\u0131nda bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon verisiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma ihtimalimiz son derece y\u00fcksektir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Daha sonraki aylarda ise 1-2 puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri ya\u015fayabiliriz. Ancak ana sorun, 35-40 civar\u0131na kadar inecek T\u00dcFE verisini daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lara ta\u015f\u0131mak olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

R\u0130SKLER \u0130Y\u0130 DE\u011eERLEND\u0130R\u0130LEB\u0130L\u0130RSE<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Global \u00fcretim aksakl\u0131klar\u0131, ambargolar ve lojistik sorunlar\u0131 global verimlili\u011fi de olumsuz etkiliyor. Serbest piyasa kurallar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015flemesi de zorla\u015f\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bahsetti\u011fimiz bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar enflasyonun daha fazla d\u00fc\u015fmesini de olumsuz etkileyebilecek geli\u015fmelerdir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Kald\u0131 ki, AB\u2019nin petrol varil fiyat\u0131na koydu\u011fu 60 dolar tavan\u0131n\u0131n uygulamas\u0131nda ya\u015fanabilecek s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bunu uygulamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve serbest piyasa fiyat\u0131na g\u00f6re hareket edece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcrecin de daha zorlu ge\u00e7mesine neden olabilir. Petrole ula\u015fman\u0131n zorlu\u011funu ya\u015fayacak AB, bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar i\u00e7erisinde ya\u015fayabilece\u011fi \u00fcretim aksakl\u0131klar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 B plan\u0131 yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu nedenle de \u00fclkemiz de dahil olmak \u00fczere farkl\u0131 \u00fclkelerde \u00fcretim yapma \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na giri\u015ftiler. \u00dclkemizde baz\u0131 fabrikalardaki \u00f6nemli \u00fcretimi de almaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Global durgunluk, enerji ve \u00fcr\u00fcne ula\u015famama kayg\u0131lar\u0131 \u00fcretim \u00fcss\u00fc olan \u00fclkemizi de \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Global fiyat hareketlerine g\u00f6re fiyatlama politikas\u0131n\u0131 iyi y\u00f6neten \u015firketler, global ekonomiden daha fazla pay alacaklar.<\/span><\/p>

\u015eunu unutmayal\u0131m, riskler iyi de\u011ferlendirilebilirse inan\u0131lmaz f\u0131rsatlar bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"enflasyonda-seyir-nasil-olacak","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1133,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":36055,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":35929,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Enflasyonda seyir nas\u0131l olacak?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"T\u00dc\u0130K, kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyon verisini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Veriye g\u00f6re T\u00dcFE, zirveden d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yaparak y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 85.51\u2019den 84.39 seviyesine geriledi.","content":"

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00dc\u0130K, kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyon verisini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Veriye g\u00f6re T\u00dcFE, zirveden d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc yaparak y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda 85.51\u2019den 84.39 seviyesine geriledi. Yurt i\u00e7i \u00dcFE ise ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde 157.69\u2019dan 136.02 seviyesine geriledi. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde TCMB taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n da 76.9\u2019dan 75.9 seviyesine geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. TCMB Ba\u015fkan\u0131 \u015eahap Kavc\u0131o\u011flu da d\u0131\u015f talepteki daralmadan bahsederek, faiz indiriminin gerek\u00e7esinin reel ekonomiyi desteklemek oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ifade etti.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00dcFE\u2019DE HIZLI GER\u0130LEME<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu durumda \u015funu s\u00f6yleyebiliriz: Global resesyon korkusu ve ABD\u2019nin agresif faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeleri biraz frenleyecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Talepteki azalma kayg\u0131s\u0131 da \u00fcreticilerin elinde stok kalabilir kayg\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011fu i\u00e7in \u00fcretim h\u0131z\u0131nda bir yava\u015flama meydana geliyor. Hal b\u00f6yle olunca hammadde fiyatlar\u0131nda bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz gibi duruyor. O y\u00fczden t\u0131pk\u0131 kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda oldu\u011fu gibi \u00dcFE oranlar\u0131nda \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde h\u0131zl\u0131 bir gerileme ya\u015fanacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2021 y\u0131l\u0131 aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda T\u00dcFE verisi y\u00fczde 13.58 gibi \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek a\u00e7\u0131klanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2022 Ocak ay\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 11.10 olarak a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu aralar T\u00dcFE 3 civar\u0131nda geliyor. Kurlar\u0131n yatay seyretmesi, emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan zay\u0131flama, yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc fiyat hareketlerini s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Aral\u0131k ve ocak aylar\u0131nda T\u00dcFE rakamlar\u0131 ayl\u0131k bazda 3 civar\u0131nda \u00e7\u0131karsa, y\u0131l sonu 73-74 civar\u0131nda y\u0131ll\u0131k bir T\u00dcFE verisi, ocak rakamlar\u0131 da dahil oldu\u011funda 70\u2019in alt\u0131nda bir y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon verisiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma ihtimalimiz son derece y\u00fcksektir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Daha sonraki aylarda ise 1-2 puanl\u0131k d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri ya\u015fayabiliriz. Ancak ana sorun, 35-40 civar\u0131na kadar inecek T\u00dcFE verisini daha a\u015fa\u011f\u0131lara ta\u015f\u0131mak olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

R\u0130SKLER \u0130Y\u0130 DE\u011eERLEND\u0130R\u0130LEB\u0130L\u0130RSE<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Global \u00fcretim aksakl\u0131klar\u0131, ambargolar ve lojistik sorunlar\u0131 global verimlili\u011fi de olumsuz etkiliyor. Serbest piyasa kurallar\u0131n\u0131n i\u015flemesi de zorla\u015f\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bahsetti\u011fimiz bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar enflasyonun daha fazla d\u00fc\u015fmesini de olumsuz etkileyebilecek geli\u015fmelerdir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Kald\u0131 ki, AB\u2019nin petrol varil fiyat\u0131na koydu\u011fu 60 dolar tavan\u0131n\u0131n uygulamas\u0131nda ya\u015fanabilecek s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar, Rusya\u2019n\u0131n bunu uygulamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve serbest piyasa fiyat\u0131na g\u00f6re hareket edece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki s\u00fcrecin de daha zorlu ge\u00e7mesine neden olabilir. Petrole ula\u015fman\u0131n zorlu\u011funu ya\u015fayacak AB, bu s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar i\u00e7erisinde ya\u015fayabilece\u011fi \u00fcretim aksakl\u0131klar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 B plan\u0131 yapmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu nedenle de \u00fclkemiz de dahil olmak \u00fczere farkl\u0131 \u00fclkelerde \u00fcretim yapma \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131na giri\u015ftiler. \u00dclkemizde baz\u0131 fabrikalardaki \u00f6nemli \u00fcretimi de almaya ba\u015flad\u0131lar.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Global durgunluk, enerji ve \u00fcr\u00fcne ula\u015famama kayg\u0131lar\u0131 \u00fcretim \u00fcss\u00fc olan \u00fclkemizi de \u00f6n plana \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Global fiyat hareketlerine g\u00f6re fiyatlama politikas\u0131n\u0131 iyi y\u00f6neten \u015firketler, global ekonomiden daha fazla pay alacaklar.<\/span><\/p>

\u015eunu unutmayal\u0131m, riskler iyi de\u011ferlendirilebilirse inan\u0131lmaz f\u0131rsatlar bar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"enflasyonda-seyir-nasil-olacak","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1133,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}