{"status":true,"post":{"id":19161,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:27:33","created_at":"2018-10-14T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:27:33.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":19161,"is_featured":0,"title":"Enflasyona \u2018topyekun\u2019 \u015foklama","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n orkestrasyonunda, Ticaret, Enerji, Sanayi ve Teknoloji, Tar\u0131m ile \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma ve Sosyal Hizmetler Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n katk\u0131lar\u0131yla y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclecek olan \u2018Enflasyonla Topyekun M\u00fccadele Program\u0131\u2019n\u0131n detaylar\u0131, fiyat istikrar\u0131 ad\u0131na y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen \u2018dengeleme-disiplin\u2019 s\u00fcrecine d\u00f6rt \u00f6nemli noktadan olumlu y\u00f6nde etkide bulunacak. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Birincisi, 1970\u2019ler, 80\u2019ler ve 90\u2019lar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019sinin enflasyonla m\u00fccadele konusunda beklenen ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131 yakalayamam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n en temel gerek\u00e7elerinden birini, \u2018fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki bozulma\u2019 olu\u015fturuyordu. Son 15 y\u0131lda i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda, reel sekt\u00f6rde fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fczelme ve disiplin g\u00f6zl\u00fcyorduk. Firmalar\u0131m\u0131z, k\u00fcresel rekabette ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmak ad\u0131na yurt i\u00e7i ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda do\u011fru fiyatland\u0131rma davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sergiliyordu. Ancak \u00f6zellikle son 3 ayda, t\u00fcm ekonomi payda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131nda bir bozulma emaresi ba\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>F\u0130YAT BEL\u0130RLEMEYE \u00c7EK\u0130 D\u00dcZEN<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle, M\u00dcS\u0130AD ve T\u00dcS\u0130AD\u2019dan ba\u015flayarak, T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015f bir kesimini temsil eden STK\u2019lar\u0131n, finans sisteminin \u00f6nemli akt\u00f6rleri olarak TBB, TKBB, TSPB ve TFKB gibi \u00f6nc\u00fc birliklerin elini ta\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131na koyduklar\u0131 bir \u2018topyekun m\u00fccadele\u2019 program\u0131 ve 3 ay boyunca t\u00fcm payda\u015flar\u0131n \u2018minimum\u2019 y\u00fczde 10 fiyat indirimini sahiplenmeleri, bozulma riski g\u00f6steren \u2018fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131na\u2019 \u00e7eki d\u00fczen getirecektir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130kincisi, son 1.5 y\u0131ld\u0131r artan bir tempoyla maliyet ve talep enflasyonu art\u0131k birbirini besler hale gelmi\u015fti ve bu nedenle \u2018enflasyon girdab\u0131\u2019 riski artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Y\u00fczde 10 fiyat indirimi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131yla t\u00fcm payda\u015flar\u0131n destek verdi\u011fi \u2018topyekun m\u00fccadele\u2019, ayn\u0131 zamanda enflasyonun \u2018kendini besleme\u2019 riskini de \u2018pozitif\u2019 bir \u015fok etkisi ile n\u00f6tralize etmi\u015f olacak. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc olumlu y\u00f6nde etki ise eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 enflasyon oranlar\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu \u2018enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n nerede duraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirsizle\u015fmesi\u2019nden kaynaklanabilecek negatif etkiyi de bertaraf edecek olmas\u0131d\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>PAZARI VE \u00dcRET\u0130M\u0130 CANLANDIRACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ve son olumlu etki de, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndaki bu sahipleni\u015fin, t\u00fcketiciye, halk\u0131m\u0131za da yans\u0131mas\u0131 boyutunda olu\u015facak \u2018toplumsal konsens\u00fcs\u2019\u00fcn ekonomiyi, pazar\u0131 ve \u00fcretimi canland\u0131rmas\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ilgisinin artmas\u0131d\u0131r. Maliyet enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede, direkt kontrol ve maliye politikas\u0131 art\u0131k devrede. M\u00fcspet sonu\u00e7 verece\u011fini birlikte g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>MERKEZ BANKALARI REEL SEKT\u00d6R\u00dc KORUMALI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2018\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011fi ve 2019\u2019un b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc, ABD\u2019nin \u00f6nderlik etti\u011fi ticaret ve kur sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n birincil ve ikincil etkilerinin dikkatle g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi ve yine ABD\u2019nin Rusya, \u00c7in, AB ve T\u00fcrkiye ile jeopolitik gerginlikleri t\u0131rmand\u0131rma riskinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu bir <\/span><span class=\"large\">5 \u00e7eyreklik d\u00f6neme i\u015faret ediyor. Bu d\u00f6nemde dikkatle takip edilecek ba\u015fl\u0131klar, k\u00fcresel emtia ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, k\u00fcresel enflasyondan kaynaklanabilecek olas\u0131 bask\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131nca nas\u0131l y\u00f6netilece\u011fi noktalar\u0131na yo\u011funla\u015facak. \u0130\u015fte tam bu noktada, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik duru\u015funa Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n kuvvetli itiraz\u0131n\u0131n tepki \u00e7ekti\u011fi bir s\u00fcreci de g\u00f6zlemliyoruz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n fiyat istikrar\u0131na, enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye y\u00f6nelik \u2018\u00f6ncelikli\u2019 g\u00f6rev alg\u0131s\u0131, k\u00fcresel enflasyon riskiyle birlikte bilhassa 2019 i\u00e7in d\u00fcnya ekonomisine yeni s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma noktalar\u0131 getirebilecek bir potansiyel ta\u015f\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Fed\u2019in ve 2019 sonbahar\u0131nda bir ihtimal Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) dahil olaca\u011f\u0131 finansal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131, hem dolar hem de Euro cinsinden bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini art\u0131racak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF) son \u2018K\u00fcresel Finansal \u0130stikrar\u2019 Raporu, k\u00fcresel finansal ko\u015fullarda nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana artan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma nedeniyle k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 stokunu y\u00f6netme boyutunda risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bu tablodan olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkilenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fine; hem reel sekt\u00f6r hem de finans sistemindeki k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkilenmesi halinde ise k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte sermaye piyasalar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Oysa s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6ncelikli ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan biri, reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in tatminkar bir \u2018k\u00e2r\u2019 ortam\u0131. Bu nedenle, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n geleneksel veya al\u0131\u015f\u0131lagelmi\u015f tutumlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irerek, bilhassa reel sekt\u00f6r k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak bir para politikas\u0131 setine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermeleri gereken bir konjonkt\u00fcre giriyoruz. Bu konuda konsens\u00fcs olu\u015fmaz ise bilhassa Avrupa\u2019da reel sekt\u00f6rde y\u00fczde 10 ile 15 oran\u0131nda bir kay\u0131p ya\u015fanabilece\u011finin dillendirildi\u011fini hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"enflasyona-topyekun-soklama","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Enflasyona \u2018topyekun\u2019 \u015foklama","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":175,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":19260,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":19161,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Enflasyona \u2018topyekun\u2019 \u015foklama","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Hazine ve Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n orkestrasyonunda, Ticaret, Enerji, Sanayi ve Teknoloji, Tar\u0131m ile \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma ve Sosyal Hizmetler Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n katk\u0131lar\u0131yla y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclecek olan \u2018Enflasyonla Topyekun M\u00fccadele Program\u0131\u2019n\u0131n detaylar\u0131, fiyat istikrar\u0131 ad\u0131na y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen \u2018dengeleme-disiplin\u2019 s\u00fcrecine d\u00f6rt \u00f6nemli noktadan olumlu y\u00f6nde etkide bulunacak. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Birincisi, 1970\u2019ler, 80\u2019ler ve 90\u2019lar T\u00fcrkiye\u2019sinin enflasyonla m\u00fccadele konusunda beklenen ba\u015far\u0131y\u0131 yakalayamam\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n en temel gerek\u00e7elerinden birini, \u2018fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131ndaki bozulma\u2019 olu\u015fturuyordu. Son 15 y\u0131lda i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131nda, reel sekt\u00f6rde fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda \u00f6nemli bir d\u00fczelme ve disiplin g\u00f6zl\u00fcyorduk. Firmalar\u0131m\u0131z, k\u00fcresel rekabette ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmak ad\u0131na yurt i\u00e7i ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda do\u011fru fiyatland\u0131rma davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sergiliyordu. Ancak \u00f6zellikle son 3 ayda, t\u00fcm ekonomi payda\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131nda bir bozulma emaresi ba\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>F\u0130YAT BEL\u0130RLEMEYE \u00c7EK\u0130 D\u00dcZEN<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle, M\u00dcS\u0130AD ve T\u00dcS\u0130AD\u2019dan ba\u015flayarak, T\u00fcrk i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131n\u0131n geni\u015f bir kesimini temsil eden STK\u2019lar\u0131n, finans sisteminin \u00f6nemli akt\u00f6rleri olarak TBB, TKBB, TSPB ve TFKB gibi \u00f6nc\u00fc birliklerin elini ta\u015f\u0131n alt\u0131na koyduklar\u0131 bir \u2018topyekun m\u00fccadele\u2019 program\u0131 ve 3 ay boyunca t\u00fcm payda\u015flar\u0131n \u2018minimum\u2019 y\u00fczde 10 fiyat indirimini sahiplenmeleri, bozulma riski g\u00f6steren \u2018fiyat belirleme al\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131klar\u0131na\u2019 \u00e7eki d\u00fczen getirecektir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130kincisi, son 1.5 y\u0131ld\u0131r artan bir tempoyla maliyet ve talep enflasyonu art\u0131k birbirini besler hale gelmi\u015fti ve bu nedenle \u2018enflasyon girdab\u0131\u2019 riski artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Y\u00fczde 10 fiyat indirimi \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131s\u0131yla t\u00fcm payda\u015flar\u0131n destek verdi\u011fi \u2018topyekun m\u00fccadele\u2019, ayn\u0131 zamanda enflasyonun \u2018kendini besleme\u2019 riskini de \u2018pozitif\u2019 bir \u015fok etkisi ile n\u00f6tralize etmi\u015f olacak. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc olumlu y\u00f6nde etki ise eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 enflasyon oranlar\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu \u2018enflasyon art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n nerede duraca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n belirsizle\u015fmesi\u2019nden kaynaklanabilecek negatif etkiyi de bertaraf edecek olmas\u0131d\u0131r. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>PAZARI VE \u00dcRET\u0130M\u0130 CANLANDIRACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc ve son olumlu etki de, i\u015f d\u00fcnyas\u0131ndaki bu sahipleni\u015fin, t\u00fcketiciye, halk\u0131m\u0131za da yans\u0131mas\u0131 boyutunda olu\u015facak \u2018toplumsal konsens\u00fcs\u2019\u00fcn ekonomiyi, pazar\u0131 ve \u00fcretimi canland\u0131rmas\u0131 ve uluslararas\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye ilgisinin artmas\u0131d\u0131r. Maliyet enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede, direkt kontrol ve maliye politikas\u0131 art\u0131k devrede. M\u00fcspet sonu\u00e7 verece\u011fini birlikte g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>MERKEZ BANKALARI REEL SEKT\u00d6R\u00dc KORUMALI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2018\u2019in son \u00e7eyre\u011fi ve 2019\u2019un b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc, ABD\u2019nin \u00f6nderlik etti\u011fi ticaret ve kur sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n birincil ve ikincil etkilerinin dikkatle g\u00f6zlendi\u011fi ve yine ABD\u2019nin Rusya, \u00c7in, AB ve T\u00fcrkiye ile jeopolitik gerginlikleri t\u0131rmand\u0131rma riskinin y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu bir <\/span><span class=\"large\">5 \u00e7eyreklik d\u00f6neme i\u015faret ediyor. Bu d\u00f6nemde dikkatle takip edilecek ba\u015fl\u0131klar, k\u00fcresel emtia ve petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda olas\u0131 y\u00fckseli\u015f, k\u00fcresel enflasyondan kaynaklanabilecek olas\u0131 bask\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131nca nas\u0131l y\u00f6netilece\u011fi noktalar\u0131na yo\u011funla\u015facak. \u0130\u015fte tam bu noktada, ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmeye y\u00f6nelik duru\u015funa Ba\u015fkan Trump\u2019\u0131n kuvvetli itiraz\u0131n\u0131n tepki \u00e7ekti\u011fi bir s\u00fcreci de g\u00f6zlemliyoruz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n fiyat istikrar\u0131na, enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye y\u00f6nelik \u2018\u00f6ncelikli\u2019 g\u00f6rev alg\u0131s\u0131, k\u00fcresel enflasyon riskiyle birlikte bilhassa 2019 i\u00e7in d\u00fcnya ekonomisine yeni s\u0131k\u0131\u015fma noktalar\u0131 getirebilecek bir potansiyel ta\u015f\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Fed\u2019in ve 2019 sonbahar\u0131nda bir ihtimal Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (ECB) dahil olaca\u011f\u0131 finansal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ad\u0131mlar\u0131, hem dolar hem de Euro cinsinden bor\u00e7lanma maliyetlerini art\u0131racak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF) son \u2018K\u00fcresel Finansal \u0130stikrar\u2019 Raporu, k\u00fcresel finansal ko\u015fullarda nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana artan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma nedeniyle k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 stokunu y\u00f6netme boyutunda risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n bu tablodan olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkilenme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckseldi\u011fine; hem reel sekt\u00f6r hem de finans sistemindeki k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n olumsuz y\u00f6nde etkilenmesi halinde ise k\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte sermaye piyasalar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n ya\u015fanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Oysa s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin \u00f6ncelikli ko\u015fullar\u0131ndan biri, reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in tatminkar bir \u2018k\u00e2r\u2019 ortam\u0131. Bu nedenle, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n geleneksel veya al\u0131\u015f\u0131lagelmi\u015f tutumlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irerek, bilhassa reel sekt\u00f6r k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak bir para politikas\u0131 setine a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k vermeleri gereken bir konjonkt\u00fcre giriyoruz. Bu konuda konsens\u00fcs olu\u015fmaz ise bilhassa Avrupa\u2019da reel sekt\u00f6rde y\u00fczde 10 ile 15 oran\u0131nda bir kay\u0131p ya\u015fanabilece\u011finin dillendirildi\u011fini hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"enflasyona-topyekun-soklama","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Enflasyona \u2018topyekun\u2019 \u015foklama","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":175,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}