{"status":true,"post":{"id":61920,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2025-02-12 15:00:00","created_at":"2025-02-12T12:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2025-02-12T12:00:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2025-02-12 15:00:00","source_id":null,"post_id":61920,"is_featured":0,"title":"Enflasyon-kur-ihracat \u00fc\u00e7geni","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":"Enflasyon-kur-ihracat \u00fc\u00e7geni","sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"<p id=\"isPasted\"><strong>T\u00fcrkiye, 2000-2001 krizinden 2010'lu y\u0131llara kadar ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda enflasyonu \u015fu \u00fc\u00e7 temel unsur sayesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: (1) S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, (2) sermaye giri\u015fleriyle de\u011ferlenen TL, (3) b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. O d\u00f6nemde T\u00fcrkiye bir yandan enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015farken, di\u011fer yandan ihracat\u0131 da art\u0131rmay\u0131 ba\u015farm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tabii o d\u00f6nemde TL\u2019deki de\u011ferlenmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ithalattaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemeliyiz.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><p><br><\/p><p>T\u00fcrkiye, bug\u00fcn benzer bir politika setiyle yeniden enflasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmeyi hedefliyor. Bunu yaparken de \u00fcretim ve ihracat\u0131n dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinden \u00e7ok olumsuz etkilenmemesini hedefliyor.\u00a0<\/p><p><br><\/p><p id=\"isPasted\"><strong><em>Fakat o d\u00f6nem ile 2020\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ciddi farkl\u0131l\u0131klar oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131. Bu farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 k\u0131saca \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetleyebiliriz:<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><br><\/p><p>* 2000\u2019li y\u0131llarda k\u00fcreselle\u015fme alt\u0131n d\u00f6nemini ya\u015f\u0131yordu. D\u00fcnyay\u0131 saran entegrasyon dalgas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli ihracat f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yordu. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra uluslararas\u0131 sermaye olduk\u00e7a bol ve ucuzdu. Bug\u00fcn geldi\u011fimiz noktada k\u00fcreselle\u015fme olduk\u00e7a ivme kaybetti. Ticari korumac\u0131l\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7erken, do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yava\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>* T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olan Avrupa ekonomisi eskisi kadar canl\u0131 ve dinamik de\u011fil. Jeopolitik k\u0131r\u0131lmalar ve \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fi, Avrupa ekonomisinin lokomotifi olan Almanya\u2019y\u0131 son 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck daralmas\u0131yla ba\u015f ba\u015fa b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>* Euro\/dolar paritesi 2000\u2019li y\u0131llarda 1.2-1.3 band\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131yordu. Bug\u00fcn 1 seviyesi test ediliyor. Bu, ihracat\u0131n\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak Avrupa\u2019ya ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zorlay\u0131c\u0131 bir farkl\u0131l\u0131k.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>* 2000\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131na k\u0131yasla reel sekt\u00f6r, i\u015fletme sermayesi ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in krediye \u00e7ok daha fazla ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale geldi. Ayn\u0131 anda hem kredi faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesi hem de TL\u2019nin reel bazda de\u011fer kazanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131, \u015firketleri uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r hissetmedi\u011fi derecede bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa itti.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>Bu farkl\u0131l\u0131klar g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yap\u0131sal reformlar olmaks\u0131z\u0131n sadece 2000'li y\u0131llar\u0131n politika \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc takip ederek hem enflasyonu hedeflenen h\u0131zda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya indirmek hem de ihracat\u0131 300 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karmak pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Kald\u0131 ki, maliye politikas\u0131 da o d\u00f6nemde oldu\u011fu kadar dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecine katk\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>TL\u2019deki reel de\u011ferlenmeye ra\u011fmen ihracat artmaya devam ediyor. Fakat Kas\u0131m 2023\u2019ten bu yana ihracat performans\u0131n\u0131n ana trendin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ithalat\u0131n ise son \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek laz\u0131m. \u00a0<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na bir s\u00fcre daha ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z oldu\u011fu bir ger\u00e7ek. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra TL\u2019nin makul bir bantta reel olarak de\u011ferlenmesi de gerekebilir. Fakat T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc de dikkate alarak daha dengeli bir patikadan yola devam etmek \u00f6nemli.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p><br><\/p>","slug":"enflasyon-kur-ihracat-ucgeni","tags":null,"meta_title":"Enflasyon-kur-ihracat \u00fc\u00e7geni","meta_description":"T\u00fcrkiye, 2000-2001 krizinden 2010'lu y\u0131llara kadar ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda enflasyonu \u015fu \u00fc\u00e7 temel unsur sayesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc:   (1) S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, (2) sermaye giri\u015fleriyle de\u011ferlenen TL, (3) b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. O d\u00f6nemde T\u00fcrkiye bir yandan enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015farken, di\u011fer yandan ihracat\u0131 da art\u0131rmay\u0131 ba\u015farm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tabii o d\u00f6nemde TL\u2019deki de\u011ferlenmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ithalattaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemeliyiz.  T\u00fcrkiye, bug\u00fcn benzer bir politika setiyle yeniden enflasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmeyi hedefliyor. Bunu yaparken de \u00fcretim ve ihracat\u0131n dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinden \u00e7ok olumsuz etkilenmemesini hedefliyor.","meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1739307600ikNlYCYDzAaqCOi.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1739361813_1200x675_mf1zdT26rr.webp","user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":62046,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":61920,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Enflasyon-kur-ihracat \u00fc\u00e7geni","home_title":"Enflasyon-kur-ihracat \u00fc\u00e7geni","sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"<p id=\"isPasted\"><strong>T\u00fcrkiye, 2000-2001 krizinden 2010'lu y\u0131llara kadar ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda enflasyonu \u015fu \u00fc\u00e7 temel unsur sayesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc: (1) S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, (2) sermaye giri\u015fleriyle de\u011ferlenen TL, (3) b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. O d\u00f6nemde T\u00fcrkiye bir yandan enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015farken, di\u011fer yandan ihracat\u0131 da art\u0131rmay\u0131 ba\u015farm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tabii o d\u00f6nemde TL\u2019deki de\u011ferlenmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ithalattaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemeliyiz.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p><p><br><\/p><p>T\u00fcrkiye, bug\u00fcn benzer bir politika setiyle yeniden enflasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmeyi hedefliyor. Bunu yaparken de \u00fcretim ve ihracat\u0131n dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinden \u00e7ok olumsuz etkilenmemesini hedefliyor.\u00a0<\/p><p><br><\/p><p id=\"isPasted\"><strong><em>Fakat o d\u00f6nem ile 2020\u2019li y\u0131llar\u0131n ko\u015fullar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ciddi farkl\u0131l\u0131klar oldu\u011fu dikkate al\u0131nmal\u0131. Bu farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 k\u0131saca \u015f\u00f6yle \u00f6zetleyebiliriz:<\/em><\/strong><\/p><p><br><\/p><p>* 2000\u2019li y\u0131llarda k\u00fcreselle\u015fme alt\u0131n d\u00f6nemini ya\u015f\u0131yordu. D\u00fcnyay\u0131 saran entegrasyon dalgas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye gibi geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelere \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli ihracat f\u0131rsatlar\u0131 sa\u011fl\u0131yordu. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra uluslararas\u0131 sermaye olduk\u00e7a bol ve ucuzdu. Bug\u00fcn geldi\u011fimiz noktada k\u00fcreselle\u015fme olduk\u00e7a ivme kaybetti. Ticari korumac\u0131l\u0131k y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7erken, do\u011frudan yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar yava\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>* T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin en \u00f6nemli ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 olan Avrupa ekonomisi eskisi kadar canl\u0131 ve dinamik de\u011fil. Jeopolitik k\u0131r\u0131lmalar ve \u00c7in\u2019in y\u00fckseli\u015fi, Avrupa ekonomisinin lokomotifi olan Almanya\u2019y\u0131 son 40 y\u0131l\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck daralmas\u0131yla ba\u015f ba\u015fa b\u0131rakt\u0131.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>* Euro\/dolar paritesi 2000\u2019li y\u0131llarda 1.2-1.3 band\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131yordu. Bug\u00fcn 1 seviyesi test ediliyor. Bu, ihracat\u0131n\u0131 a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak Avrupa\u2019ya ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiren ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan zorlay\u0131c\u0131 bir farkl\u0131l\u0131k.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>* 2000\u2019lerin ba\u015f\u0131na k\u0131yasla reel sekt\u00f6r, i\u015fletme sermayesi ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 finanse etmek i\u00e7in krediye \u00e7ok daha fazla ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 hale geldi. Ayn\u0131 anda hem kredi faizlerinin y\u00fckselmesi hem de TL\u2019nin reel bazda de\u011fer kazanmaya ba\u015flamas\u0131, \u015firketleri uzun y\u0131llard\u0131r hissetmedi\u011fi derecede bir s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011fa itti.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>Bu farkl\u0131l\u0131klar g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, yap\u0131sal reformlar olmaks\u0131z\u0131n sadece 2000'li y\u0131llar\u0131n politika \u00fc\u00e7l\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc takip ederek hem enflasyonu hedeflenen h\u0131zda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya indirmek hem de ihracat\u0131 300 milyar dolar\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131karmak pek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Kald\u0131 ki, maliye politikas\u0131 da o d\u00f6nemde oldu\u011fu kadar dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecine katk\u0131 sa\u011flam\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>TL\u2019deki reel de\u011ferlenmeye ra\u011fmen ihracat artmaya devam ediyor. Fakat Kas\u0131m 2023\u2019ten bu yana ihracat performans\u0131n\u0131n ana trendin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, ithalat\u0131n ise son \u00fc\u00e7 ayd\u0131r art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemek laz\u0131m. \u00a0<\/p><p><br><\/p><p>S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131na bir s\u00fcre daha ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z oldu\u011fu bir ger\u00e7ek. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra TL\u2019nin makul bir bantta reel olarak de\u011ferlenmesi de gerekebilir. Fakat T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc de dikkate alarak daha dengeli bir patikadan yola devam etmek \u00f6nemli.<\/p><p><br><\/p><p><br><\/p>","slug":"enflasyon-kur-ihracat-ucgeni","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1739307600ikNlYCYDzAaqCOi.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1739307600ikNlYCYDzAaqCOi.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1739361813_310x208_q3IKOe0dW4.webp","cropped_416x247":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1739361813_416x247_N5WYk1kPVE.webp","cropped_197x247":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1739361813_197x247_2XhWHOJ0ai.webp","cropped_416x600":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1739361813_416x600_emrRKcGJlA.webp","cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1739361813_1200x675_mf1zdT26rr.webp","tags":null,"meta_title":"Enflasyon-kur-ihracat \u00fc\u00e7geni","meta_description":"T\u00fcrkiye, 2000-2001 krizinden 2010'lu y\u0131llara kadar ge\u00e7en s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda enflasyonu \u015fu \u00fc\u00e7 temel unsur sayesinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc:   (1) S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131, (2) sermaye giri\u015fleriyle de\u011ferlenen TL, (3) b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki keskin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f. O d\u00f6nemde T\u00fcrkiye bir yandan enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015farken, di\u011fer yandan ihracat\u0131 da art\u0131rmay\u0131 ba\u015farm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Tabii o d\u00f6nemde TL\u2019deki de\u011ferlenmeye ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ithalattaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n da olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu ger\u00e7e\u011fini g\u00f6z ard\u0131 etmemeliyiz.  T\u00fcrkiye, bug\u00fcn benzer bir politika setiyle yeniden enflasyonu a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmeyi hedefliyor. Bunu yaparken de \u00fcretim ve ihracat\u0131n dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecinden \u00e7ok olumsuz etkilenmemesini hedefliyor.","meta_keywords":null,"view_count":0,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2025-03-14 14:17:11","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}