{"status":true,"post":{"id":42218,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-08-07 07:46:00","created_at":"2023-08-07T04:46:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-08-07T04:46:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":42218,"is_featured":0,"title":"Enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

ngur@medipol.com.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyon oranlar\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede geriliyor. K\u00fcresel enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn arka plan\u0131nda tedarik zincirlerindeki ve emtia piyasalar\u0131ndaki sorunlar\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131 var. G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda \u00e7ift haneli enflasyona sahip iki \u00fclke kald\u0131: Arjantin ve T\u00fcrkiye. Arjantin, IMF\u2019den destek alm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flayamad\u0131. Peso\u2019nun de\u011fer kayb\u0131, kurakl\u0131k ve siyasi kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131n etkisiyle \u00fclkede enflasyon y\u00fczde 116 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Arjantin\u2019deki kadar yak\u0131c\u0131 olmasa da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de enflasyon \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir problem. Ekim 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 85.51\u2019le zirveye \u00e7\u0131kan y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon, 8 ay arka arkaya gerilemi\u015fti. Ancak, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin sonuna geldik. Enflasyon yeniden kafas\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 kald\u0131rd\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Merkez Bankas\u0131, y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 22.3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 58\u2019e g\u00fcncelledi. Enflasyonun y\u0131l\u0131 bu oran\u0131n \u00fczerinde kapatma riski de var.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TET\u0130KLEY\u0130C\u0130 UNSURLAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en iki ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda enflasyonu tetikleyici bir dizi geli\u015fme ya\u015fand\u0131. Sepet kur y\u00fczde 35 art\u0131\u015f kaydetti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131, t\u00fcm ithal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden oldu. \u00dcretim maliyetleri sadece kur \u00fczerinden de\u011fil, \u00fccretler \u00fczerinden de bask\u0131 yedi. Ara d\u00fczenleme ile asgari \u00fccret, y\u00fczde 34 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Merkez Bankas\u0131 tahminlerine g\u00f6re, asgari \u00fccretteki bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n t\u00fcketici enflasyonunu y\u00fczde 2.7-4.1 puan aras\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00e7ekebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KDV ve \u00d6TV gibi dolayl\u0131 vergilerde oranlar\u0131n y\u00fckseltilmesi, fiyatlar genel seviyesini yukar\u0131ya \u00e7ekti.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Benzin ve motorindeki vergi ayarlamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 pompa fiyatlar\u0131 adeta u\u00e7u\u015fa ge\u00e7ti. Enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f, sanayi \u00fcretimi ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 etkileyerek i\u011fneden ipli\u011fe her \u015feyin fiyat\u0131n\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak y\u00fckseltiyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

CANLI \u0130\u00c7 TALEP<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonu k\u00f6r\u00fckleyen unsurlar sadece arz ile ilintili de\u011fil. Canl\u0131 i\u00e7 talep de enflasyonu besliyor. Tasarruf ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n reel getirisi cazip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in insanlar, enflasyondan korunmak amac\u0131yla harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7ekiyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Kart ile yap\u0131lan harcamalardaki y\u0131ll\u0131k bazl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 150\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131. T\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki co\u015fku d\u00f6n\u00fcp dola\u015f\u0131p enflasyonu yukar\u0131 t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 6 ila 9 ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te enflasyonda hissedilir bir art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanacak. Merkez Bankas\u0131, enflasyonun daha fazla kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve BDDK e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc bi\u00e7imde t\u00fcketici kredileri ve kredi kartlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan harcamalar\u0131 dizginlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in bunlar\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131 \u015fart. Hatta daha fazla parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olacak. K\u0131sa ve orta vadede enflasyonu art\u0131ran unsurlar\u0131n \u00fczerine gitmek tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli olmayacakt\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda y\u00fcksek enflasyona neden olan yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik uzun vadeli politikalara da y\u00f6nelmeliyiz.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"enflasyon-gorunumu","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1691355600xzSRHLtgk4MqSNZ.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1481,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":42344,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":42218,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

ngur@medipol.com.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyon oranlar\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede geriliyor. K\u00fcresel enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn arka plan\u0131nda tedarik zincirlerindeki ve emtia piyasalar\u0131ndaki sorunlar\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 uygulamalar\u0131 var. G20 \u00fclkeleri aras\u0131nda \u00e7ift haneli enflasyona sahip iki \u00fclke kald\u0131: Arjantin ve T\u00fcrkiye. Arjantin, IMF\u2019den destek alm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen bir t\u00fcrl\u00fc istikrar\u0131 sa\u011flayamad\u0131. Peso\u2019nun de\u011fer kayb\u0131, kurakl\u0131k ve siyasi kar\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131klar\u0131n etkisiyle \u00fclkede enflasyon y\u00fczde 116 seviyesine y\u00fckseldi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Arjantin\u2019deki kadar yak\u0131c\u0131 olmasa da T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de enflasyon \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir problem. Ekim 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 85.51\u2019le zirveye \u00e7\u0131kan y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon, 8 ay arka arkaya gerilemi\u015fti. Ancak, bu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendinin sonuna geldik. Enflasyon yeniden kafas\u0131n\u0131 yukar\u0131 kald\u0131rd\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Merkez Bankas\u0131, y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminini y\u00fczde 22.3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 58\u2019e g\u00fcncelledi. Enflasyonun y\u0131l\u0131 bu oran\u0131n \u00fczerinde kapatma riski de var.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TET\u0130KLEY\u0130C\u0130 UNSURLAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan ge\u00e7en iki ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre zarf\u0131nda enflasyonu tetikleyici bir dizi geli\u015fme ya\u015fand\u0131. Sepet kur y\u00fczde 35 art\u0131\u015f kaydetti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131, t\u00fcm ithal \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131na neden oldu. \u00dcretim maliyetleri sadece kur \u00fczerinden de\u011fil, \u00fccretler \u00fczerinden de bask\u0131 yedi. Ara d\u00fczenleme ile asgari \u00fccret, y\u00fczde 34 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Merkez Bankas\u0131 tahminlerine g\u00f6re, asgari \u00fccretteki bu art\u0131\u015f\u0131n t\u00fcketici enflasyonunu y\u00fczde 2.7-4.1 puan aras\u0131nda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc \u00e7ekebilece\u011fi belirtiliyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KDV ve \u00d6TV gibi dolayl\u0131 vergilerde oranlar\u0131n y\u00fckseltilmesi, fiyatlar genel seviyesini yukar\u0131ya \u00e7ekti.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Benzin ve motorindeki vergi ayarlamas\u0131 sonras\u0131 pompa fiyatlar\u0131 adeta u\u00e7u\u015fa ge\u00e7ti. Enerji maliyetlerindeki art\u0131\u015f, sanayi \u00fcretimi ve ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 etkileyerek i\u011fneden ipli\u011fe her \u015feyin fiyat\u0131n\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olarak y\u00fckseltiyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

CANLI \u0130\u00c7 TALEP<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonu k\u00f6r\u00fckleyen unsurlar sadece arz ile ilintili de\u011fil. Canl\u0131 i\u00e7 talep de enflasyonu besliyor. Tasarruf ara\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131n reel getirisi cazip olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in insanlar, enflasyondan korunmak amac\u0131yla harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ne \u00e7ekiyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Kart ile yap\u0131lan harcamalardaki y\u0131ll\u0131k bazl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f oranlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 150\u2019ye yakla\u015ft\u0131. T\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131ndaki co\u015fku d\u00f6n\u00fcp dola\u015f\u0131p enflasyonu yukar\u0131 t\u0131rmand\u0131r\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 6 ila 9 ayl\u0131k s\u00fcre\u00e7te enflasyonda hissedilir bir art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fanacak. Merkez Bankas\u0131, enflasyonun daha fazla kontrolden \u00e7\u0131kmamas\u0131 i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Ayr\u0131ca, Merkez Bankas\u0131 ve BDDK e\u015fg\u00fcd\u00fcml\u00fc bi\u00e7imde t\u00fcketici kredileri ve kredi kartlar\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131lan harcamalar\u0131 dizginlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in bunlar\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131 \u015fart. Hatta daha fazla parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olacak. K\u0131sa ve orta vadede enflasyonu art\u0131ran unsurlar\u0131n \u00fczerine gitmek tek ba\u015f\u0131na yeterli olmayacakt\u0131r. Ayn\u0131 zamanda y\u00fcksek enflasyona neden olan yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fcne y\u00f6nelik uzun vadeli politikalara da y\u00f6nelmeliyiz.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"enflasyon-gorunumu","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1691355600xzSRHLtgk4MqSNZ.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1691355600xzSRHLtgk4MqSNZ.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1481,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}