{"status":true,"post":{"id":20170,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:48:51","created_at":"2019-04-07T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:48:51.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":20170,"is_featured":0,"title":"Enflasyon-durgunluk uyu\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Akl\u0131 selim ekonomistler, 2019 i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar taraf\u0131ndan dile getirilen GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde daralman\u0131n y\u0131lsonunda y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019i bulabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki de\u011ferlendirmeleri a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcmser bulmaktalar. Bu nedenle, bitirdi\u011fimiz mart ay\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak, hele ki 31 Mart se\u00e7imlerinin de geride b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, ekonomide giderek h\u0131zlanmas\u0131na \u015fahit olunacak canlanma, bilhassa 2019\u2019un 2. yar\u0131s\u0131nda pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendinin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde hissedilmesini sa\u011flayacak. Ekonominin kimi ekonomistlerin ve \u00e7evrelerin iddia ettikleri gibi a\u011f\u0131r bir durgunluk i\u00e7erisinde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n pek \u00e7ok emaresi var. \u0130malat sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131ndaki toparlanmadan, t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ile birlikte, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn g\u00fcven endekslerinin birlikte hesap edildi\u011fi ekonomik g\u00fcven endeksindeki toparlanmaya kadar uzayan bir dizi g\u00f6sterge ortada. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle, \u015fubat sonu itibariyle, d\u00f6rt ayda 5.5 puan gerileyen y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n, mart ay\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de olsa bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f olmas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmamal\u0131. Bu nedenle, nisandan haziran sonuna kadar \u2018yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k\u2019 etkisi noktas\u0131nda diren\u00e7 g\u00f6stermesi beklenen enflasyonun, haziran sonuna y\u00fczde 17-19 band\u0131nda girip, y\u0131l\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 15-17 band\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmesi bekleniyor. Son \u00e7eyrekte ise k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n seyrine ve dolar-TL kurundaki istikrara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, enflasyonun y\u0131l\u0131 TCMB\u2019nin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc olan y\u00fczde 15\u2019in alt\u0131nda bitirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Bununla birlikte, ekonomistlerin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc, y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 16-17 band\u0131nda bitirebilece\u011fini de \u00f6ng\u00f6rmekte. Y\u0131l\u0131n 2. yar\u0131s\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisindeki toparlanman\u0131n daha da h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131 halinde, enflasyonun y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 16-17 band\u0131nda bitirmesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmamal\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon oranlar\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fme devam ederken, enflasyondaki direncin piyasadaki hareketlenmeyle de ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak haziran sonuna kadar s\u00fcrebilir. Bu arada, Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kamu al\u0131mlar\u0131nda sa\u011fl\u0131ktan in\u015faata, tar\u0131mdan sanayiye ve elektroni\u011fe kadar \u00e7e\u015fitli alanlarda kullan\u0131lan 761 e\u015fya i\u00e7in \u2018istisnai durumlar\u2019 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ithalat izin belgesi d\u00fczenlenmemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki karar\u0131 da \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir ad\u0131m. Yerli ve milli makine, elektronik \u00fcr\u00fcn, te\u00e7hizat \u00fcretimini destekleyecek bu ad\u0131m\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltacak etkisini birlikte g\u00f6zlemleyece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u2018ALI\u015eILMAMI\u015e BA\u015eARILAR\u2019 \u00dcLKES\u0130 T\u00dcRK\u0130YE<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">1 Nisan sabah\u0131ndan itibaren, ba\u015fta ekonomi, pek \u00e7ok alanda 2. ve 3. nesil reformlara t\u00fcm\u00fcyle odaklanaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z yeni bir d\u00f6neme ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ilkesi, d\u00fcsturu, bug\u00fcn\u00fcn modern tabiriyle \u2018motto\u2019su, \u2018her zorlu\u011fa meydan okuma becerisi\u2019 ile \u2018al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f ba\u015far\u0131 kabiliyeti\u2019 ile tan\u0131mlanabilir. \u2018Al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u2019 ba\u015far\u0131, bir ba\u015far\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ad\u0131na gerekli olarak parametrelerin, ko\u015fullar\u0131n bir araya gelmesi halinde olu\u015facak sonucun tahmin edilebilece\u011fi, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi bir s\u00fcreci tamamlar. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin sadece bin y\u0131ll\u0131k tarihine g\u00f6z atsak, en \u00f6nemli meziyetimizin, kabiliyetimizin \u2018al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131\u015f\u2019 ba\u015far\u0131lara imza atmak oldu\u011funu rahatl\u0131kla g\u00f6zlemleyebiliriz. Bunun anlam\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr parametreler ve ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin o konuda, o alanda \u2018ba\u015far\u0131dan\u2019 \u00e7ok, bir \u2018ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131kla\u2019 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etmektedir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130\u015fte tam bu noktada, biz T\u00fcrklerin \u2018g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen\u2019 meziyetleri, azmi, kabiliyeti devreye girer ve g\u00f6r\u00fcnen parametrelerle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6z\u00fckmeyen, \u2018al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f\u2019 bir ba\u015far\u0131m\u0131z daha tarihe mal olur. Bunu Malazgirt Zaferi\u2019nde de \u0130stanbul\u2019un Fethi\u2019nde de \u00c7anakkale Zaferi\u2019nde de Kurtulu\u015f Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda da K\u0131br\u0131s Harekat\u0131\u2019nda da 15 Temmuz FET\u00d6 hain darbe giri\u015fiminin darmada\u011f\u0131n edildi\u011fi o emsalsiz gecede de F\u0131rat Kalkan\u0131 ve Zeytin Dal\u0131 harekatlar\u0131nda da g\u00f6rebilirsiziniz. Ve elbette g\u00f6rmeye, azimle hayata ge\u00e7irmeye, \u2018al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f ba\u015far\u0131lar\u2019a imza atmaya devam edece\u011fiz. Savunma sanayi teknolojilerinde, ak\u0131ll\u0131 cihazlarda, yapay zeka teknolojilerinde, her \u015feyin internetinde, dijital d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmde de \u2018al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131\u015f ba\u015far\u0131lar\u2019\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin k\u00fcresel rekabetteki iddias\u0131n\u0131, kabiliyetini per\u00e7inleyecek vergi reformlar\u0131na, finansal reformlara, \u00fcretim, istihdam ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yeni model ve politikalara imkan sa\u011flayacak yeni bir d\u00f6nemin i\u00e7indeyiz. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu \u2018dengeleme-disiplin\u2019 d\u00f6neminin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kritik \u00f6nemdeki sonu\u00e7lardan al\u0131nan destekle, \u2018maliyet y\u00f6netimi\u2019ne odakl\u0131 2. ve 3. nesil reformlar\u0131n hayat bulaca\u011f\u0131 yeni bir d\u00f6nem. Se\u00e7ilen t\u00fcm belediye ba\u015fkanlar\u0131m\u0131za, illerin rekabet\u00e7ili\u011fi ad\u0131na, hayata ge\u00e7irecekleri projelerde ba\u015far\u0131lar dileyerek, 2030 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019sinin in\u015fas\u0131na odaklanal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"enflasyon-durgunluk-uyusmazligi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Enflasyon-durgunluk uyu\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":246,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":20269,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":20170,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Enflasyon-durgunluk uyu\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Akl\u0131 selim ekonomistler, 2019 i\u00e7in \u00e7e\u015fitli uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar taraf\u0131ndan dile getirilen GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinde daralman\u0131n y\u0131lsonunda y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019i bulabilece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki de\u011ferlendirmeleri a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 k\u00f6t\u00fcmser bulmaktalar. Bu nedenle, bitirdi\u011fimiz mart ay\u0131ndan ba\u015flayarak, hele ki 31 Mart se\u00e7imlerinin de geride b\u0131rak\u0131lmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, ekonomide giderek h\u0131zlanmas\u0131na \u015fahit olunacak canlanma, bilhassa 2019\u2019un 2. yar\u0131s\u0131nda pozitif b\u00fcy\u00fcme trendinin daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde hissedilmesini sa\u011flayacak. Ekonominin kimi ekonomistlerin ve \u00e7evrelerin iddia ettikleri gibi a\u011f\u0131r bir durgunluk i\u00e7erisinde olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n pek \u00e7ok emaresi var. \u0130malat sanayi kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131ndaki toparlanmadan, t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni ile birlikte, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn g\u00fcven endekslerinin birlikte hesap edildi\u011fi ekonomik g\u00fcven endeksindeki toparlanmaya kadar uzayan bir dizi g\u00f6sterge ortada. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle, \u015fubat sonu itibariyle, d\u00f6rt ayda 5.5 puan gerileyen y\u0131ll\u0131kland\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f T\u00dcFE art\u0131\u015f oran\u0131n\u0131n, mart ay\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de olsa bir art\u0131\u015f g\u00f6stermi\u015f olmas\u0131 \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmamal\u0131. Bu nedenle, nisandan haziran sonuna kadar \u2018yap\u0131\u015fkanl\u0131k\u2019 etkisi noktas\u0131nda diren\u00e7 g\u00f6stermesi beklenen enflasyonun, haziran sonuna y\u00fczde 17-19 band\u0131nda girip, y\u0131l\u0131n 3. \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 15-17 band\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6rmesi bekleniyor. Son \u00e7eyrekte ise k\u00fcresel petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n seyrine ve dolar-TL kurundaki istikrara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, enflasyonun y\u0131l\u0131 TCMB\u2019nin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fc olan y\u00fczde 15\u2019in alt\u0131nda bitirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6z ard\u0131 edilmemeli. Bununla birlikte, ekonomistlerin bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc, y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 16-17 band\u0131nda bitirebilece\u011fini de \u00f6ng\u00f6rmekte. Y\u0131l\u0131n 2. yar\u0131s\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisindeki toparlanman\u0131n daha da h\u0131z kazanmas\u0131 halinde, enflasyonun y\u0131l\u0131 y\u00fczde 16-17 band\u0131nda bitirmesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmamal\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle, \u00e7ekirdek enflasyon oranlar\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fme devam ederken, enflasyondaki direncin piyasadaki hareketlenmeyle de ba\u011flant\u0131l\u0131 olarak haziran sonuna kadar s\u00fcrebilir. Bu arada, Ticaret Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kamu al\u0131mlar\u0131nda sa\u011fl\u0131ktan in\u015faata, tar\u0131mdan sanayiye ve elektroni\u011fe kadar \u00e7e\u015fitli alanlarda kullan\u0131lan 761 e\u015fya i\u00e7in \u2018istisnai durumlar\u2019 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ithalat izin belgesi d\u00fczenlenmemesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki karar\u0131 da \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli bir ad\u0131m. Yerli ve milli makine, elektronik \u00fcr\u00fcn, te\u00e7hizat \u00fcretimini destekleyecek bu ad\u0131m\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin ithalata ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 azaltacak etkisini birlikte g\u00f6zlemleyece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u2018ALI\u015eILMAMI\u015e BA\u015eARILAR\u2019 \u00dcLKES\u0130 T\u00dcRK\u0130YE<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">1 Nisan sabah\u0131ndan itibaren, ba\u015fta ekonomi, pek \u00e7ok alanda 2. ve 3. nesil reformlara t\u00fcm\u00fcyle odaklanaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z yeni bir d\u00f6neme ba\u015fl\u0131yoruz. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ilkesi, d\u00fcsturu, bug\u00fcn\u00fcn modern tabiriyle \u2018motto\u2019su, \u2018her zorlu\u011fa meydan okuma becerisi\u2019 ile \u2018al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f ba\u015far\u0131 kabiliyeti\u2019 ile tan\u0131mlanabilir. \u2018Al\u0131\u015f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f\u2019 ba\u015far\u0131, bir ba\u015far\u0131n\u0131n ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi ad\u0131na gerekli olarak parametrelerin, ko\u015fullar\u0131n bir araya gelmesi halinde olu\u015facak sonucun tahmin edilebilece\u011fi, \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclebilece\u011fi bir s\u00fcreci tamamlar. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin sadece bin y\u0131ll\u0131k tarihine g\u00f6z atsak, en \u00f6nemli meziyetimizin, kabiliyetimizin \u2018al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131\u015f\u2019 ba\u015far\u0131lara imza atmak oldu\u011funu rahatl\u0131kla g\u00f6zlemleyebiliriz. Bunun anlam\u0131, g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcr parametreler ve ko\u015fullar alt\u0131nda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin o konuda, o alanda \u2018ba\u015far\u0131dan\u2019 \u00e7ok, bir \u2018ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131zl\u0131kla\u2019 kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funa i\u015faret etmektedir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u0130\u015fte tam bu noktada, biz T\u00fcrklerin \u2018g\u00f6r\u00fcnmeyen\u2019 meziyetleri, azmi, kabiliyeti devreye girer ve g\u00f6r\u00fcnen parametrelerle ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn g\u00f6z\u00fckmeyen, \u2018al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f\u2019 bir ba\u015far\u0131m\u0131z daha tarihe mal olur. Bunu Malazgirt Zaferi\u2019nde de \u0130stanbul\u2019un Fethi\u2019nde de \u00c7anakkale Zaferi\u2019nde de Kurtulu\u015f Sava\u015f\u0131\u2019nda da K\u0131br\u0131s Harekat\u0131\u2019nda da 15 Temmuz FET\u00d6 hain darbe giri\u015fiminin darmada\u011f\u0131n edildi\u011fi o emsalsiz gecede de F\u0131rat Kalkan\u0131 ve Zeytin Dal\u0131 harekatlar\u0131nda da g\u00f6rebilirsiziniz. Ve elbette g\u00f6rmeye, azimle hayata ge\u00e7irmeye, \u2018al\u0131\u015f\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f ba\u015far\u0131lar\u2019a imza atmaya devam edece\u011fiz. Savunma sanayi teknolojilerinde, ak\u0131ll\u0131 cihazlarda, yapay zeka teknolojilerinde, her \u015feyin internetinde, dijital d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcmde de \u2018al\u0131\u015fmam\u0131\u015f ba\u015far\u0131lar\u2019\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin k\u00fcresel rekabetteki iddias\u0131n\u0131, kabiliyetini per\u00e7inleyecek vergi reformlar\u0131na, finansal reformlara, \u00fcretim, istihdam ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yeni model ve politikalara imkan sa\u011flayacak yeni bir d\u00f6nemin i\u00e7indeyiz. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin ihtiya\u00e7 duydu\u011fu \u2018dengeleme-disiplin\u2019 d\u00f6neminin sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 kritik \u00f6nemdeki sonu\u00e7lardan al\u0131nan destekle, \u2018maliyet y\u00f6netimi\u2019ne odakl\u0131 2. ve 3. nesil reformlar\u0131n hayat bulaca\u011f\u0131 yeni bir d\u00f6nem. Se\u00e7ilen t\u00fcm belediye ba\u015fkanlar\u0131m\u0131za, illerin rekabet\u00e7ili\u011fi ad\u0131na, hayata ge\u00e7irecekleri projelerde ba\u015far\u0131lar dileyerek, 2030 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019sinin in\u015fas\u0131na odaklanal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"enflasyon-durgunluk-uyusmazligi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Enflasyon-durgunluk uyu\u015fmazl\u0131\u011f\u0131","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":246,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}