{"status":true,"post":{"id":17658,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:21:46","created_at":"2017-12-17T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:21:46.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":17658,"is_featured":0,"title":"Ekonomide moral verileri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Son zamanlarda piyasalardaki man\u00fcpilatif hareketler, T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerine oynanan oyunlardan ekonomik verilere pek vakit ayr\u0131lamamakta, enflasyon, faizli enstr\u00fcmanlar, kur gibi verilerle de piyasalar\u0131n beklentileri bozulmaktayd\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan gerek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri gerekse d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri y\u00fcreklere su serperken gelece\u011fe daha da umutla bakmam\u0131za neden olabilecek.<\/span><\/p>

11 Aral\u0131k 2017 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) verilerine g\u00f6re;<\/span><\/p>

Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek ilk tahmini; zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi olarak (2009=100), 2017\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 11.1 artt\u0131. \u00dcretim y\u00f6ntemiyle gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la tahmini, 2017\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde cari fiyatlarla y\u00fczde 24.2 artarak 827 milyar 230 milyon TL oldu. GSYH\u2019yi olu\u015fturan faaliyetler incelendi\u011finde; 2017\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi olarak; tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc toplam katma de\u011feri y\u00fczde 2.8, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 14.8 ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 18.7 artt\u0131. Ticaret, ula\u015ft\u0131rma, konaklama ve yiyecek hizmeti faaliyetlerinin toplam\u0131ndan olu\u015fan hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn katma de\u011feri ise y\u00fczde 20.7 artt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

Takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi, 2017 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 9.6 artt\u0131. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1.2 artt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

Cari fiyatlarla hesaplamalar; ger\u00e7ek de\u011fi\u015fimlerle birlikte fiyat hareketlerini de kaps\u0131yor. Yaln\u0131zca ger\u00e7ek de\u011fi\u015fimlerin izlenebilmesi i\u00e7in fiyat de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinden gelen etkinin giderilmesi gerekiyor. Zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksleriyle elde edilen GSYH, bu etkiyi yok ederek; <\/span>belli bir d\u00f6nemde yer alan ger\u00e7ek de\u011fi\u015fmeleri \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

Sonu\u00e7 olarak fiyatlardan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, enflasyonun ve kurlar\u0131n etkisi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f haline bakmak i\u00e7in zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksini dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bile b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 9.6 gibi olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir orand\u0131r. Bu orana herkesin \u015fapka \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 gerekir. Eme\u011fi ge\u00e7en herkese te\u015fekk\u00fcr etmek laz\u0131m. <\/span><\/p>

Bu veri ile gerek yurti\u00e7inde gerekse yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok kurum T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ileriki y\u0131llardaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekeceklerdir. Burada tek s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 para bulmak daha zorla\u015fabilir ve faizler y\u00fckselebilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ayn\u0131 zamanda y\u00fcksek faiz demektir. <\/span><\/p>

13 Aral\u0131k g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerine g\u00f6re; ihracat miktar endeksi ekimde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5.8 artt\u0131. Endeks bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek ve t\u00fct\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 14.8, ham maddelerde (yak\u0131t hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 5, yak\u0131tlarda y\u00fczde 2.9 ve imalat sanayinde (g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek, t\u00fct\u00fcn hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 9.8 artt\u0131. \u0130thalat miktar endeksi ekim ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 15.7 artt\u0131. Endeks bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re, g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek ve t\u00fct\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 28.6, ham maddelerde (yak\u0131t hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 33.4, yak\u0131tlarda y\u00fczde 12.7 ve imalat sanayinde (g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek, t\u00fct\u00fcn hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 18.8 artt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

Burada fiyat, kur etkisi gibi \u015fi\u015firici y\u00f6nde bir veri bulunmuyor. Miktar endeks de\u011fi\u015fimi reel durumu yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan son derece \u00f6nemli. \u0130malat sanayi (g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek ve t\u00fct\u00fcn hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 9.8 ihracat miktar art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130thalatta ise imalat sanayi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 18.8 olup i\u00e7 t\u00fcketime giden k\u0131s\u0131m d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra gelecekte artacak ihracat\u0131n da habercisi olabilir. <\/span><\/p>

Bu iki olumlu veriler T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerine yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen karalama kampanyas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. <\/span>
Bu durum yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olumsuz etki b\u0131rakma \u00e7abas\u0131 olanlar taraf\u0131ndan da de\u011ferlendirilerek, \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011fu sonucuna varmalar\u0131n\u0131 da sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

Bu \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ve b\u00f6lgesinde ciddi bir ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 olu\u015fturan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi yan\u0131na alan kazanaca\u011f\u0131ndan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde bu y\u00f6nde a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 duyarsak \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

\"\u0130TO Ba\u015fkan\u0131m\u0131z Say\u0131n \u0130brahim \u00c7a\u011flar\u2019\u0131n vefat\u0131n\u0131 derin \u00fcz\u00fcnt\u00fc i\u00e7inde \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015f bulunmaktay\u0131m. Hepimizin ba\u015f\u0131 sa\u011f olsun. <\/span><\/em>
Allah rahmet eylesin...\"<\/span><\/em><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"ekonomide-moral-verileri","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Ekonomide moral verileri","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":119,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":17757,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":17658,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Ekonomide moral verileri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Son zamanlarda piyasalardaki man\u00fcpilatif hareketler, T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerine oynanan oyunlardan ekonomik verilere pek vakit ayr\u0131lamamakta, enflasyon, faizli enstr\u00fcmanlar, kur gibi verilerle de piyasalar\u0131n beklentileri bozulmaktayd\u0131. <\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan gerek b\u00fcy\u00fcme verileri gerekse d\u0131\u015f ticaret verileri y\u00fcreklere su serperken gelece\u011fe daha da umutla bakmam\u0131za neden olabilecek.<\/span><\/p>

11 Aral\u0131k 2017 g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) verilerine g\u00f6re;<\/span><\/p>

Gayrisafi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrek ilk tahmini; zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi olarak (2009=100), 2017\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 11.1 artt\u0131. \u00dcretim y\u00f6ntemiyle gayrisafi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la tahmini, 2017\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde cari fiyatlarla y\u00fczde 24.2 artarak 827 milyar 230 milyon TL oldu. GSYH\u2019yi olu\u015fturan faaliyetler incelendi\u011finde; 2017\u2019nin \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi olarak; tar\u0131m sekt\u00f6r\u00fc toplam katma de\u011feri y\u00fczde 2.8, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 14.8 ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u00fczde 18.7 artt\u0131. Ticaret, ula\u015ft\u0131rma, konaklama ve yiyecek hizmeti faaliyetlerinin toplam\u0131ndan olu\u015fan hizmetler sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn katma de\u011feri ise y\u00fczde 20.7 artt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

Takvim etkisinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi, 2017 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 9.6 artt\u0131. Mevsim ve takvim etkilerinden ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f GSYH zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi, bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1.2 artt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

Cari fiyatlarla hesaplamalar; ger\u00e7ek de\u011fi\u015fimlerle birlikte fiyat hareketlerini de kaps\u0131yor. Yaln\u0131zca ger\u00e7ek de\u011fi\u015fimlerin izlenebilmesi i\u00e7in fiyat de\u011fi\u015fikliklerinden gelen etkinin giderilmesi gerekiyor. Zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksleriyle elde edilen GSYH, bu etkiyi yok ederek; <\/span>belli bir d\u00f6nemde yer alan ger\u00e7ek de\u011fi\u015fmeleri \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

Sonu\u00e7 olarak fiyatlardan ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lm\u0131\u015f, enflasyonun ve kurlar\u0131n etkisi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f haline bakmak i\u00e7in zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksini dikkate ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda bile b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 9.6 gibi olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksek bir orand\u0131r. Bu orana herkesin \u015fapka \u00e7\u0131karmas\u0131 gerekir. Eme\u011fi ge\u00e7en herkese te\u015fekk\u00fcr etmek laz\u0131m. <\/span><\/p>

Bu veri ile gerek yurti\u00e7inde gerekse yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda bir\u00e7ok kurum T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ileriki y\u0131llardaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerini yukar\u0131 \u00e7ekeceklerdir. Burada tek s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 para bulmak daha zorla\u015fabilir ve faizler y\u00fckselebilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ayn\u0131 zamanda y\u00fcksek faiz demektir. <\/span><\/p>

13 Aral\u0131k g\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131klanan d\u0131\u015f ticaret verilerine g\u00f6re; ihracat miktar endeksi ekimde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5.8 artt\u0131. Endeks bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek ve t\u00fct\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 14.8, ham maddelerde (yak\u0131t hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 5, yak\u0131tlarda y\u00fczde 2.9 ve imalat sanayinde (g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek, t\u00fct\u00fcn hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 9.8 artt\u0131. \u0130thalat miktar endeksi ekim ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 15.7 artt\u0131. Endeks bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re, g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek ve t\u00fct\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 28.6, ham maddelerde (yak\u0131t hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 33.4, yak\u0131tlarda y\u00fczde 12.7 ve imalat sanayinde (g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek, t\u00fct\u00fcn hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 18.8 artt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

Burada fiyat, kur etkisi gibi \u015fi\u015firici y\u00f6nde bir veri bulunmuyor. Miktar endeks de\u011fi\u015fimi reel durumu yans\u0131tt\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan son derece \u00f6nemli. \u0130malat sanayi (g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek ve t\u00fct\u00fcn hari\u00e7) y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 9.8 ihracat miktar art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakalam\u0131\u015f durumda. \u0130thalatta ise imalat sanayi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 18.8 olup i\u00e7 t\u00fcketime giden k\u0131s\u0131m d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra gelecekte artacak ihracat\u0131n da habercisi olabilir. <\/span><\/p>

Bu iki olumlu veriler T\u00fcrkiye \u00fczerine yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclen karalama kampanyas\u0131na ra\u011fmen ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. <\/span>
Bu durum yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131nda olumsuz etki b\u0131rakma \u00e7abas\u0131 olanlar taraf\u0131ndan da de\u011ferlendirilerek, \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131z oldu\u011fu sonucuna varmalar\u0131n\u0131 da sa\u011flayacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p>

Bu \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ve b\u00f6lgesinde ciddi bir ekonomik g\u00fc\u00e7 olu\u015fturan T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi yan\u0131na alan kazanaca\u011f\u0131ndan, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki g\u00fcnlerde bu y\u00f6nde a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131 duyarsak \u015fa\u015f\u0131rmayaca\u011f\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

\"\u0130TO Ba\u015fkan\u0131m\u0131z Say\u0131n \u0130brahim \u00c7a\u011flar\u2019\u0131n vefat\u0131n\u0131 derin \u00fcz\u00fcnt\u00fc i\u00e7inde \u00f6\u011frenmi\u015f bulunmaktay\u0131m. Hepimizin ba\u015f\u0131 sa\u011f olsun. <\/span><\/em>
Allah rahmet eylesin...\"<\/span><\/em><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"ekonomide-moral-verileri","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Ekonomide moral verileri","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":119,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}