{"status":true,"post":{"id":34882,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 21:53:57","created_at":"2022-09-15T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T18:53:57.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":34882,"is_featured":0,"title":"Ekonomide makro verilerin verdi\u011fi sinyaller","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, birbirlerini teyit eder vaziyette \u00f6nemli sinyaller veriyor. O y\u00fczden bu yaz\u0131m\u0131zda verileri topluca de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u00d6nce TCMB taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131ndan bahsedelim. Kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131, Temmuz 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 78.2 iken, a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 1.5 puan azalarak y\u00fczde 76.7 seviyesine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Son d\u00f6nemde istisnai haller hari\u00e7 y\u00fczde 75-80 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131yordu. B\u00f6ylece band\u0131n alt aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na inmi\u015f oldu. Kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi, artan sabit maliyet oran\u0131 nedeniyle rekabette dezavantaj anlam\u0131na geliyor. O y\u00fczden kapasitenin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, rekabet\u00e7i olma \u00f6zelli\u011fimizin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Bunun yan\u0131nda kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi, al\u0131nan sipari\u015flerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f anlam\u0131na da geliyor. Aksi halde \u00fcretim kapasitesi d\u00fc\u015fmezdi. \u00d6zellikle i\u00e7 talebi iyi analiz etmek gerekiyor. Bunun yan\u0131nda yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n talebi yava\u015flat\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn oldu\u011funu da unutmamak laz\u0131m. <\/span>
<\/span>
Daha detaya bakarsak, \u00f6zellikle yat\u0131r\u0131m ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 \u00fcretiminde kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi \u00e7ok dikkat \u00e7ekicidir.<\/span>
<\/span>
PERAKENDE SATI\u015eLAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
\u015eimdi hemen perakende sat\u0131\u015f verilerine bakal\u0131m. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u00e7 piyasay\u0131 son derece net g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan temmuz perakende sat\u0131\u015f endeksi verilerine g\u00f6re, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 5.4 art\u0131\u015ftan y\u00fczde 2 art\u0131\u015fa d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yani haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda fark daha y\u00fcksekti. Ayl\u0131k bazda ise iki ayd\u0131r \u00fcst \u00fcste negatif bir de\u011fi\u015fim var. Yani Temmuz 2022\u2019de ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0.3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00f6z konusu. Bu durum bize i\u00e7 piyasada hem y\u0131ll\u0131k hem de ayl\u0131k bazda hareketlili\u011fin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u015eimdi de Temmuz 2022 toplam ciro endeksine bakal\u0131m. Burada da y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimin, Haziran 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 130.9 iken, Temmuz 2022\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 122.4 seviyesine geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ayl\u0131k bazda ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00fczde 1.5 oran\u0131nda. Yani toplam ciroda da bir yava\u015flama g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Sorun sadece i\u00e7 piyasa de\u011fil diyebiliriz.<\/span>
<\/span>
Son olarak da T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan temmuz ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim endeksine bakal\u0131m. Burada da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 8.8 olan sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131, y\u00fczde 2.4 seviyesine d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f. Ayl\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00fczde 6.2 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. \u00d6zellikle t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 8\u2019e varan \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri g\u00f6zlemleniyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u0130\u00c7 P\u0130YASA CANLANMALI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, toplam cirolarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, hem kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015f hem de sanayi \u00fcretiminde azalmaya yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Global durgunlu\u011fun oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde i\u00e7 talebe ihtiya\u00e7 duyulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ve gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 daha \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131zda \u00e7izmi\u015ftik. \u015eimdi global durgunlu\u011fun ayak seslerini duymaya ba\u015flad\u0131k. E\u011fer i\u00e7 piyasa canlanamazsa b\u00fcy\u00fcme konusundaki y\u00fczde 5 ve \u00fczeri hedeflerde revizyona gidilmek zorunda kal\u0131nabilir. <\/span>
<\/span>
Global riskleri iyi de\u011ferlendiremezsek, global krizden k\u00e2rla \u00e7\u0131kamayabiliriz.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"ekonomide-makro-verilerin-verdigi-sinyaller","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Ekonomide makro verilerin verdi\u011fi sinyaller","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1093,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":34981,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":34882,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Ekonomide makro verilerin verdi\u011fi sinyaller","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

H\u0130KMET BAYDAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan veriler, birbirlerini teyit eder vaziyette \u00f6nemli sinyaller veriyor. O y\u00fczden bu yaz\u0131m\u0131zda verileri topluca de\u011ferlendirece\u011fiz. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u00d6nce TCMB taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131ndan bahsedelim. Kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131, Temmuz 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 78.2 iken, a\u011fustos ay\u0131nda 1.5 puan azalarak y\u00fczde 76.7 seviyesine d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Son d\u00f6nemde istisnai haller hari\u00e7 y\u00fczde 75-80 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda dalgalan\u0131yordu. B\u00f6ylece band\u0131n alt aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na inmi\u015f oldu. Kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi, artan sabit maliyet oran\u0131 nedeniyle rekabette dezavantaj anlam\u0131na geliyor. O y\u00fczden kapasitenin d\u00fc\u015fmesi, rekabet\u00e7i olma \u00f6zelli\u011fimizin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131 anlam\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yor. <\/span>
<\/span>
Bunun yan\u0131nda kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi, al\u0131nan sipari\u015flerde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f anlam\u0131na da geliyor. Aksi halde \u00fcretim kapasitesi d\u00fc\u015fmezdi. \u00d6zellikle i\u00e7 talebi iyi analiz etmek gerekiyor. Bunun yan\u0131nda yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki faiz art\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n talebi yava\u015flat\u0131c\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fcn oldu\u011funu da unutmamak laz\u0131m. <\/span>
<\/span>
Daha detaya bakarsak, \u00f6zellikle yat\u0131r\u0131m ve t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 \u00fcretiminde kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi \u00e7ok dikkat \u00e7ekicidir.<\/span>
<\/span>
PERAKENDE SATI\u015eLAR<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
\u015eimdi hemen perakende sat\u0131\u015f verilerine bakal\u0131m. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc i\u00e7 piyasay\u0131 son derece net g\u00f6steriyor. T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan temmuz perakende sat\u0131\u015f endeksi verilerine g\u00f6re, perakende sat\u0131\u015flar y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 5.4 art\u0131\u015ftan y\u00fczde 2 art\u0131\u015fa d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Yani haziranda y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda fark daha y\u00fcksekti. Ayl\u0131k bazda ise iki ayd\u0131r \u00fcst \u00fcste negatif bir de\u011fi\u015fim var. Yani Temmuz 2022\u2019de ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 0.3 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00f6z konusu. Bu durum bize i\u00e7 piyasada hem y\u0131ll\u0131k hem de ayl\u0131k bazda hareketlili\u011fin azald\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u015eimdi de Temmuz 2022 toplam ciro endeksine bakal\u0131m. Burada da y\u0131ll\u0131k de\u011fi\u015fimin, Haziran 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 130.9 iken, Temmuz 2022\u2019de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 122.4 seviyesine geriledi\u011fini g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Ayl\u0131k bazda ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00fczde 1.5 oran\u0131nda. Yani toplam ciroda da bir yava\u015flama g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Sorun sadece i\u00e7 piyasa de\u011fil diyebiliriz.<\/span>
<\/span>
Son olarak da T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan temmuz ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim endeksine bakal\u0131m. Burada da y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 8.8 olan sanayi \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131, y\u00fczde 2.4 seviyesine d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f. Ayl\u0131k bazda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f y\u00fczde 6.2 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f. \u00d6zellikle t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131nda ayl\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 8\u2019e varan \u00fcretim d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri g\u00f6zlemleniyor. <\/span>
<\/span>
\u0130\u00c7 P\u0130YASA CANLANMALI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
G\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fi \u00fczere perakende sat\u0131\u015flar, toplam cirolarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler, hem kapasite kullan\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekmi\u015f hem de sanayi \u00fcretiminde azalmaya yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. Global durgunlu\u011fun oldu\u011fu d\u00f6nemlerde i\u00e7 talebe ihtiya\u00e7 duyulaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131n ve gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131ndaki sorunun \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmesi gerekti\u011finin alt\u0131n\u0131 daha \u00f6nceki yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131zda \u00e7izmi\u015ftik. \u015eimdi global durgunlu\u011fun ayak seslerini duymaya ba\u015flad\u0131k. E\u011fer i\u00e7 piyasa canlanamazsa b\u00fcy\u00fcme konusundaki y\u00fczde 5 ve \u00fczeri hedeflerde revizyona gidilmek zorunda kal\u0131nabilir. <\/span>
<\/span>
Global riskleri iyi de\u011ferlendiremezsek, global krizden k\u00e2rla \u00e7\u0131kamayabiliriz.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"ekonomide-makro-verilerin-verdigi-sinyaller","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Ekonomide makro verilerin verdi\u011fi sinyaller","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1093,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}