{"status":true,"post":{"id":15133,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:54:17","created_at":"2016-11-14T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:54:17.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":15133,"is_featured":0,"title":"Ekonomide dalgalanma","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Son zamanlarda gerek yurt i\u00e7erisinde gerekse yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler oluyor. Burada en \u00f6nemli konu, bu geli\u015fmelerin ekonomide \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fikliklere yol a\u00e7mas\u0131d\u0131r. Ekonomi i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli konu g\u00fcvendir. Bu nedenle son yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131zda ekonomide g\u00fcvenli bir ortam\u0131n acilen tekrar sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131n gereklili\u011fi \u00fczerinde durduk. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u00d6NCE G\u00dcVEN SA\u011eLANMALI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">G\u00fcven sa\u011flanmazsa ne olur? Yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi azal\u0131r. Bu sadece do\u011frudan sermaye giri\u015fi olarak alg\u0131lanmamal\u0131, aksine bankalar\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sendikasyon kredilerine kadar bir s\u00fcr\u00fc kayna\u011f\u0131n etkilenmesi s\u00f6z konusu. Yabanc\u0131 sermaye <\/span><span class=\"large\">giri\u015fi azal\u0131rsa b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomide paran\u0131n maliyeti artar. Yani faizler kendili\u011finden y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bir de di\u011fer a\u00e7\u0131dan bakal\u0131m. Yabanc\u0131 sermaye e\u011fer T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi yeterince g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rmezse hemen T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya ba\u015flar. Bu nedenle de elindeki tahvilleri satar. O zaman da tahvil fiyatlar\u0131 ve borsalar d\u00fc\u015ferken faizler (sat\u0131lan tahvilin de\u011ferinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi nedeniyle) y\u00fckselir, pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7ekerken de d\u00f6viz y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flar. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>REEL SEKT\u00d6RE ETK\u0130S\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bunlar parasal hareketler. Gelelim reel sekt\u00f6re\u2026Reel sekt\u00f6r kaynak bulman\u0131n gittik\u00e7e zorla\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle nakit d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc rahat sa\u011flayamayabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bunun yan\u0131nda firmalar kur ve g\u00fcven zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle hem \u00f6nlerini g\u00f6remez hem de yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma istekleri azal\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7 olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 zarar g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Yaz aylar\u0131ndan beri ya\u015fanan i\u00e7 siyasi geli\u015fmelerin \u00fczerine, d\u0131\u015f piyasaya ba\u011fl\u0131 hareketlili\u011fin ve global durgunlu\u011fun tuz biber oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcnce kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za sorunlar \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin sanayi \u00fcretim verisi bir ay a\u015fa\u011f\u0131, bir ay yukar\u0131 zigzaglar yap\u0131yor. En son veri eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 ve bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3.8 daralmay\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Keza eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015flarda da bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re hafif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de i\u00e7 piyasada yeterli canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak yine de ge\u00e7en seneden \u00e7ok az daha iyi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>TRUMP ABD\u2019N\u0130N LEH\u0130NE<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Gelelim ABD\u2019nin etkisine\u2026 Se\u00e7imlerde Trump\u2019\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 bizdeki 2001 se\u00e7imlerine \u00e7ok benziyor. Medyan\u0131n \u015fi\u015firdi\u011fi ki\u015fi se\u00e7imi kazanmazken, hakk\u0131nda bir s\u00fcr\u00fc k\u00f6t\u00fc s\u00f6zler sarfedilerek y\u0131prat\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan ki\u015fi yeni ba\u015fkan se\u00e7ildi. Bu durum T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi kaybetmek \u00fczere olan ABD\u2019nin kesin olarak lehinedir. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Belki kendi ge\u00e7mi\u015fiyle hesapla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 bir temizli\u011fi de ba\u015flatabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eimdilik T\u00fcrkiye hakk\u0131nda olumsuz bir s\u00f6ylem yok, aksine T\u00fcrkiye ile Ortado\u011fu politikas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden belirlenece\u011finin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 da son derece \u00f6nemli.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>KURLARLA OYNANAN OYUN<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Acilen ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olan birbirimize, g\u00fcvenimize zarar verecek olu\u015fumlara izin vermemektir. Kurlarla oynanan oyun da bu i\u015fin par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. TL\u2019nin sahipsiz oldu\u011fu izlenimi verilmemeli. Global piyasalarda paritelerde dolar h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybederken T\u00fcrkiye ve benzeri birka\u00e7 \u00fclkede ayn\u0131 anda benzer hareketlerin olmas\u0131 olay\u0131n boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"ekonomide-dalgalanma","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Ekonomide dalgalanma","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":119,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":15232,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":15133,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Ekonomide dalgalanma","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Son zamanlarda gerek yurt i\u00e7erisinde gerekse yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler oluyor. Burada en \u00f6nemli konu, bu geli\u015fmelerin ekonomide \u00f6nemli de\u011fi\u015fikliklere yol a\u00e7mas\u0131d\u0131r. Ekonomi i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli konu g\u00fcvendir. Bu nedenle son yaz\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131zda ekonomide g\u00fcvenli bir ortam\u0131n acilen tekrar sa\u011flanmas\u0131n\u0131n gereklili\u011fi \u00fczerinde durduk. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u00d6NCE G\u00dcVEN SA\u011eLANMALI<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">G\u00fcven sa\u011flanmazsa ne olur? Yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi azal\u0131r. Bu sadece do\u011frudan sermaye giri\u015fi olarak alg\u0131lanmamal\u0131, aksine bankalar\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 sendikasyon kredilerine kadar bir s\u00fcr\u00fc kayna\u011f\u0131n etkilenmesi s\u00f6z konusu. Yabanc\u0131 sermaye <\/span><span class=\"large\">giri\u015fi azal\u0131rsa b\u00fcy\u00fcyen ekonomide paran\u0131n maliyeti artar. Yani faizler kendili\u011finden y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bir de di\u011fer a\u00e7\u0131dan bakal\u0131m. Yabanc\u0131 sermaye e\u011fer T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi yeterince g\u00fcvenli g\u00f6rmezse hemen T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya ba\u015flar. Bu nedenle de elindeki tahvilleri satar. O zaman da tahvil fiyatlar\u0131 ve borsalar d\u00fc\u015ferken faizler (sat\u0131lan tahvilin de\u011ferinin d\u00fc\u015fmesi nedeniyle) y\u00fckselir, pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131na \u00e7ekerken de d\u00f6viz y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flar. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>REEL SEKT\u00d6RE ETK\u0130S\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bunlar parasal hareketler. Gelelim reel sekt\u00f6re\u2026Reel sekt\u00f6r kaynak bulman\u0131n gittik\u00e7e zorla\u015fmas\u0131 nedeniyle nakit d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc rahat sa\u011flayamayabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bunun yan\u0131nda firmalar kur ve g\u00fcven zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131 nedeniyle hem \u00f6nlerini g\u00f6remez hem de yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma istekleri azal\u0131r. Sonu\u00e7 olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 zarar g\u00f6r\u00fcr. Yaz aylar\u0131ndan beri ya\u015fanan i\u00e7 siyasi geli\u015fmelerin \u00fczerine, d\u0131\u015f piyasaya ba\u011fl\u0131 hareketlili\u011fin ve global durgunlu\u011fun tuz biber oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcnce kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za sorunlar \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6rne\u011fin sanayi \u00fcretim verisi bir ay a\u015fa\u011f\u0131, bir ay yukar\u0131 zigzaglar yap\u0131yor. En son veri eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 ve bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3.8 daralmay\u0131 i\u015faret ediyor. Keza eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131 perakende sat\u0131\u015flarda da bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re hafif d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f de i\u00e7 piyasada yeterli canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Ancak yine de ge\u00e7en seneden \u00e7ok az daha iyi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>TRUMP ABD\u2019N\u0130N LEH\u0130NE<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Gelelim ABD\u2019nin etkisine\u2026 Se\u00e7imlerde Trump\u2019\u0131n kazanmas\u0131 bizdeki 2001 se\u00e7imlerine \u00e7ok benziyor. Medyan\u0131n \u015fi\u015firdi\u011fi ki\u015fi se\u00e7imi kazanmazken, hakk\u0131nda bir s\u00fcr\u00fc k\u00f6t\u00fc s\u00f6zler sarfedilerek y\u0131prat\u0131lmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131lan ki\u015fi yeni ba\u015fkan se\u00e7ildi. Bu durum T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi kaybetmek \u00fczere olan ABD\u2019nin kesin olarak lehinedir. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Belki kendi ge\u00e7mi\u015fiyle hesapla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 bir temizli\u011fi de ba\u015flatabilir. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u015eimdilik T\u00fcrkiye hakk\u0131nda olumsuz bir s\u00f6ylem yok, aksine T\u00fcrkiye ile Ortado\u011fu politikas\u0131n\u0131n yeniden belirlenece\u011finin a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131 da son derece \u00f6nemli.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>KURLARLA OYNANAN OYUN<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Acilen ihtiyac\u0131m\u0131z olan birbirimize, g\u00fcvenimize zarar verecek olu\u015fumlara izin vermemektir. Kurlarla oynanan oyun da bu i\u015fin par\u00e7as\u0131d\u0131r. TL\u2019nin sahipsiz oldu\u011fu izlenimi verilmemeli. Global piyasalarda paritelerde dolar h\u0131zla de\u011fer kaybederken T\u00fcrkiye ve benzeri birka\u00e7 \u00fclkede ayn\u0131 anda benzer hareketlerin olmas\u0131 olay\u0131n boyutlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"ekonomide-dalgalanma","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Ekonomide dalgalanma","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":119,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}