{"status":true,"post":{"id":46766,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-12-25 08:43:00","created_at":"2023-12-25T05:43:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-12-25T05:43:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":46766,"is_featured":0,"title":"Ekonomide 2023 de\u011ferlendirmesi","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"


<\/p>

nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir y\u0131l\u0131 daha geride b\u0131rak\u0131yoruz. 2023\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair beklentiler, \u00e7ok iyimser de\u011fildi. Artan faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 olu\u015fabilecek bir enerji arz krizi senaryosu, k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck beklentileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Bu y\u0131l k\u00fcresel iktisadi aktivite, 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha s\u00f6n\u00fck ge\u00e7mi\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke sene ba\u015f\u0131nda beklenenden daha iyi bir performans sergiledi. Ayr\u0131ca, enflasyon oranlar\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girdi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Faiz oranlar\u0131nda son 20-25 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyeleri g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ama ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkede istihdam rakamlar\u0131, artan faizlere diren\u00e7 g\u00f6sterdi. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok sert ge\u00e7memesi ve Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin alternatif enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 devreye sokma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle endi\u015fe edildi\u011fi kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 bir enerji krizi ya\u015fanmad\u0131. Enerji ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere emtia fiyatlar\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda normale d\u00f6nd\u00fc.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelerin ekonomileri hi\u00e7 etkiledi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenemez. En ba\u015fta aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131m gibi 2023\u2019te b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede 2022\u2019nin gerisinde kald\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda imalat sanayi \u00fcretimi, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda birka\u00e7 istisna hari\u00e7, d\u00fcnya genelinde zay\u0131flad\u0131. K\u00fcresel mal ticaretinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131, y\u00fczde 1\u2019in alt\u0131na indi. Finansal ko\u015fullardaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma, Rusya\u2019dan Avrupa\u2019ya akan enerji miktar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ve ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki teknoloji sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ate\u015finin s\u00f6nmemesi, \u00f6zellikle Almanya\u2019y\u0131 vurdu. Alman ekonomisi, 2023\u2019te resesyona girdi. \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019YE DA\u0130R NOTLAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2023 y\u0131l\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in de kolay ge\u00e7medi. Deprem ve Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imleri gibi d\u0131\u015fsal etmenler, ekonomik gidi\u015fat\u0131 ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc etkiledi. Yine de se\u00e7im belirsizli\u011fi ve deprem felaketlerine ra\u011fmen T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131, d\u00fcnya ve G20 \u00fclkeleri ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde seyretti. 2023\u2019\u00fc y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019e yak\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131yla kapatmam\u0131z kuvvetle muhtemel.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomideki -\u00f6zellikle Avrupa\u2019daki- g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f seyir, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 olumsuz etkiledi. Bu y\u0131l ihracattaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 olduk\u00e7a c\u0131l\u0131zd\u0131. Hal b\u00f6yle olunca, net ihracat 2022\u2019deki gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131 sa\u011flayamad\u0131. Hatta net ihracat, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam etse de bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kompozisyonu \u00e7ok daha fazla i\u00e7 talep a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye destek olan ikinci unsur olarak dikkat \u00e7ekti. Makina ve te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 bu y\u0131l da pozitif seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Deprem konutlar\u0131n\u0131n in\u015fas\u0131yla birlikte artan in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda destekledi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetmi\u015f olsa da bu trend k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda TL\u2019de ya\u015fanan de\u011fer kayb\u0131, enflasyonu bir kez daha yukar\u0131ya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131, haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren politika duru\u015funda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitti. Enflasyonun kronik bir soruna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmemesi i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gidildi. Faiz oranlar\u0131, son 20 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Artan finansman maliyetleri, \u00f6zellikle ekim ay\u0131ndan itibaren kendini reel sekt\u00f6rde hissettirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bununla birlikte, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkilerinin tam olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yleyemeyiz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleyi 2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha fazla konu\u015faca\u011f\u0131z. Bu yaz\u0131da 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa bir de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131k. Nasip olursa, bir sonraki yaz\u0131da ise 2024\u2019e dair mevcut beklentileri ele alal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ekonomide-2023-degerlendirmesi","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1703451600zWfSfzVzufef4hI.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":2358,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":46892,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":46766,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Ekonomide 2023 de\u011ferlendirmesi","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","content":"


<\/p>

nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir y\u0131l\u0131 daha geride b\u0131rak\u0131yoruz. 2023\u2019\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131nda k\u00fcresel ekonomiye dair beklentiler, \u00e7ok iyimser de\u011fildi. Artan faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131 olu\u015fabilecek bir enerji arz krizi senaryosu, k\u00fcresel ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6n\u00fck beklentileri a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya \u00e7ekmi\u015fti. Bu y\u0131l k\u00fcresel iktisadi aktivite, 2022\u2019ye k\u0131yasla daha s\u00f6n\u00fck ge\u00e7mi\u015f olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke sene ba\u015f\u0131nda beklenenden daha iyi bir performans sergiledi. Ayr\u0131ca, enflasyon oranlar\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f trendine girdi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Faiz oranlar\u0131nda son 20-25 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyeleri g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ama ba\u015fta ABD olmak \u00fczere bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkede istihdam rakamlar\u0131, artan faizlere diren\u00e7 g\u00f6sterdi. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz k\u0131\u015f aylar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ok sert ge\u00e7memesi ve Avrupa \u00fclkelerinin alternatif enerji kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 devreye sokma \u00e7abalar\u0131n\u0131n da etkisiyle endi\u015fe edildi\u011fi kadar b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00e7apl\u0131 bir enerji krizi ya\u015fanmad\u0131. Enerji ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere emtia fiyatlar\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda normale d\u00f6nd\u00fc.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmelerin ekonomileri hi\u00e7 etkiledi\u011fi s\u00f6ylenemez. En ba\u015fta aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131m gibi 2023\u2019te b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede 2022\u2019nin gerisinde kald\u0131. Ayn\u0131 zamanda imalat sanayi \u00fcretimi, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda birka\u00e7 istisna hari\u00e7, d\u00fcnya genelinde zay\u0131flad\u0131. K\u00fcresel mal ticaretinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131, y\u00fczde 1\u2019in alt\u0131na indi. Finansal ko\u015fullardaki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma, Rusya\u2019dan Avrupa\u2019ya akan enerji miktar\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 ve ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki teknoloji sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ate\u015finin s\u00f6nmemesi, \u00f6zellikle Almanya\u2019y\u0131 vurdu. Alman ekonomisi, 2023\u2019te resesyona girdi. \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019YE DA\u0130R NOTLAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2023 y\u0131l\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi i\u00e7in de kolay ge\u00e7medi. Deprem ve Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 se\u00e7imleri gibi d\u0131\u015fsal etmenler, ekonomik gidi\u015fat\u0131 ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc etkiledi. Yine de se\u00e7im belirsizli\u011fi ve deprem felaketlerine ra\u011fmen T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131, d\u00fcnya ve G20 \u00fclkeleri ortalamalar\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde seyretti. 2023\u2019\u00fc y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019e yak\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131yla kapatmam\u0131z kuvvetle muhtemel.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomideki -\u00f6zellikle Avrupa\u2019daki- g\u00f6rece zay\u0131f seyir, ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 olumsuz etkiledi. Bu y\u0131l ihracattaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131 olduk\u00e7a c\u0131l\u0131zd\u0131. Hal b\u00f6yle olunca, net ihracat 2022\u2019deki gibi b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131 sa\u011flayamad\u0131. Hatta net ihracat, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekti. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, b\u00fcy\u00fcme rakamlar\u0131 g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc kalmaya devam etse de bu y\u0131l b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kompozisyonu \u00e7ok daha fazla i\u00e7 talep a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 oldu. Yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye destek olan ikinci unsur olarak dikkat \u00e7ekti. Makina ve te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 bu y\u0131l da pozitif seyrini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Deprem konutlar\u0131n\u0131n in\u015fas\u0131yla birlikte artan in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda destekledi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydetmi\u015f olsa da bu trend k\u0131sa s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda TL\u2019de ya\u015fanan de\u011fer kayb\u0131, enflasyonu bir kez daha yukar\u0131ya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131, haziran ay\u0131ndan itibaren politika duru\u015funda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gitti. Enflasyonun kronik bir soruna d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fmemesi i\u00e7in para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funda de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe gidildi. Faiz oranlar\u0131, son 20 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyelerini g\u00f6rd\u00fc. Artan finansman maliyetleri, \u00f6zellikle ekim ay\u0131ndan itibaren kendini reel sekt\u00f6rde hissettirmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Bununla birlikte, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki etkilerinin tam olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc s\u00f6yleyemeyiz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleyi 2024\u2019\u00fcn ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha fazla konu\u015faca\u011f\u0131z. Bu yaz\u0131da 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n k\u0131sa bir de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131k. Nasip olursa, bir sonraki yaz\u0131da ise 2024\u2019e dair mevcut beklentileri ele alal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ekonomide-2023-degerlendirmesi","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1703451600zWfSfzVzufef4hI.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1703451600zWfSfzVzufef4hI.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":2358,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}