{"status":true,"post":{"id":48617,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-02-12 07:58:00","created_at":"2024-02-12T04:58:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-02-12T04:58:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":48617,"is_featured":0,"title":"Ekonomi yeni y\u0131la hareketli ba\u015flad\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi yeni y\u0131la olduk\u00e7a hareketli ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak bu hareket, iktisadi faaliyetlerdeki bir hareketlenmeden \u00e7ok politika uygulamalar\u0131 ve beklentilerdeki geli\u015fmelerden kaynaklan\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. K\u00dcRESEL EKONOM\u0130DE ANA SENARYO \u00c7ALI\u015eIYOR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomi, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ana senaryosu i\u00e7inde ilerliyor. Ana senaryo, enflasyon oranlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi ve b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l i\u00e7inde faiz indirmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu takvim i\u00e7inde y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde beklentilerde iyile\u015fme, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise iktisadi faaliyetlerde toparlanman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemi ise dura\u011fan ge\u00e7ecek. Ocak ay\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re, enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yine sanayi ve hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerindeki zay\u0131f performans da devam ediyor. Jeopolitik risklerin yeni fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 yaratmamas\u0131 halinde 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n beklenen ana senaryosu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. B\u00dcY\u00dcK MERKEZ BANKALARI FA\u0130Z \u0130ND\u0130R\u0130M\u0130NDE TEMK\u0130NL\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk faiz toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede temkinli duru\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed, faiz indirimi i\u00e7in mart ay\u0131n\u0131 erken g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve muhtemelen haziran ay\u0131 i\u00e7in indirim sinyali verdi. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, faiz indirimlerini hen\u00fcz tart\u0131\u015fmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Banka, ilk faiz indirimini muhtemelen may\u0131s veya haziran aylar\u0131 i\u00e7in planl\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 ise yaz sonu veya sonbaharda faiz indirimine ba\u015flayacak. Ayr\u0131ca b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131, faizlerde piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha az say\u0131da indirim yapaca\u011f\u0131 i\u015fareti veriyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE MERKEZ BANKASI BA\u015eKAN DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130M\u0130 VE OLASI ETK\u0130LER\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yeni program\u0131n \u00f6nemli ayaklar\u0131ndan birini, para politikas\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim ve enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 uygulanmas\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 2023 Haziran ay\u0131nda merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve daha sonra da y\u00f6netimi de\u011fi\u015fti. Yeni ba\u015fkan ve y\u00f6netim, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 kararl\u0131l\u0131kla uygulad\u0131. Yine lirala\u015fma d\u00f6nemindeki d\u00fczenlemelerin azalt\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6nemi y\u00f6netildi. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ve normalle\u015fme ba\u015far\u0131 ile uygulan\u0131rken merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 g\u00f6revinden ayr\u0131ld\u0131. Yeni merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131, mevcut y\u00f6netimin bir \u00fcyesi ve y\u00f6netim de aynen korunuyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131 ile merkez bankas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 ve normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecini aynen s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. G\u00f6rev de\u011fi\u015fimi, ekonomik ve finansal bir dalgalanmaya neden olmayacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. MERKEZ BANKASI SIKILA\u015eTIRMAYI ARTIRIR MI? \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6nceki merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131, 25 Ocak tarihli son faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci i\u00e7in yeterli parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yeterli parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma seviyesi kapsam\u0131nda merkez bankas\u0131 politika faizini y\u00fczde 45\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kartt\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 da y\u00fczde 50 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde. Kredi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 devam ediyor. Banka, finansal piyasalara aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 TL likiditesini en aza indirdi. Ba\u015fkan de\u011fi\u015fimi sonras\u0131nda bankadan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Banka, muhtemelen yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma seviyesini art\u0131racak. Politika faizi art\u0131\u015f\u0131, bireysel kredilerde yeni s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma, TL likiditesinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 ve kredi kartlar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar beklenmeli.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

8 \u015eubat tarihinde yap\u0131lacak Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyon raporu sunumu, yeni s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentileri \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u00f6nemli olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. PROGRAMA YEN\u0130 B\u0130R SOLUK GEREK\u0130YOR \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Program\u0131n devam edece\u011fine ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerle program\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentilerdeki zay\u0131flama, programa yeni bir soluk ihtiyac\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikas\u0131 ile y\u00fcksek maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 aras\u0131nda reel kesim bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. Yine reel kesim, TL\u2019nin yeniden de\u011ferlenmesinden rahats\u0131z. Y\u00fcksek \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ra\u011fmen hane halklar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00fcksek enflasyon nedeniyle erimeye devam ediyor. Reel kesim ve hane halklar\u0131n\u0131n programa olan g\u00fcveni azal\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk primi de yeniden 300 puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yerel se\u00e7ime kadar program aynen s\u00fcrecek. Ancak yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 \u00f6zellikle enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ve ihracat\u0131n desteklenmesi i\u00e7in yeni \u00f6nlemler gerekecek. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da ana senaryo risklere ve belirsizliklere ra\u011fmen \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ekonomi-yeni-yila-hareketli-basladi","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/17076852005QFBtY3MblIyypK.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":10093,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":48743,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":48617,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Ekonomi yeni y\u0131la hareketli ba\u015flad\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi yeni y\u0131la olduk\u00e7a hareketli ba\u015flad\u0131. Ancak bu hareket, iktisadi faaliyetlerdeki bir hareketlenmeden \u00e7ok politika uygulamalar\u0131 ve beklentilerdeki geli\u015fmelerden kaynaklan\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. K\u00dcRESEL EKONOM\u0130DE ANA SENARYO \u00c7ALI\u015eIYOR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomi, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ana senaryosu i\u00e7inde ilerliyor. Ana senaryo, enflasyon oranlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn s\u00fcrmesi ve b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n y\u0131l i\u00e7inde faiz indirmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131d\u0131r. Bu takvim i\u00e7inde y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde beklentilerde iyile\u015fme, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda ise iktisadi faaliyetlerde toparlanman\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131 bekleniyor. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrek d\u00f6nemi ise dura\u011fan ge\u00e7ecek. Ocak ay\u0131 verilerine g\u00f6re, enflasyonda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Yine sanayi ve hizmet sekt\u00f6rlerindeki zay\u0131f performans da devam ediyor. Jeopolitik risklerin yeni fiyat s\u0131\u00e7ramalar\u0131 yaratmamas\u0131 halinde 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n beklenen ana senaryosu ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f olacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. B\u00dcY\u00dcK MERKEZ BANKALARI FA\u0130Z \u0130ND\u0130R\u0130M\u0130NDE TEMK\u0130NL\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ocak ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk faiz toplant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yapt\u0131. B\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131, enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede temkinli duru\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed, faiz indirimi i\u00e7in mart ay\u0131n\u0131 erken g\u00f6rd\u00fc ve muhtemelen haziran ay\u0131 i\u00e7in indirim sinyali verdi. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131, faiz indirimlerini hen\u00fcz tart\u0131\u015fmad\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Banka, ilk faiz indirimini muhtemelen may\u0131s veya haziran aylar\u0131 i\u00e7in planl\u0131yor. \u0130ngiltere Merkez Bankas\u0131 ise yaz sonu veya sonbaharda faiz indirimine ba\u015flayacak. Ayr\u0131ca b\u00fcy\u00fck merkez bankalar\u0131, faizlerde piyasalar\u0131n bekledi\u011finden daha az say\u0131da indirim yapaca\u011f\u0131 i\u015fareti veriyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE MERKEZ BANKASI BA\u015eKAN DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130M\u0130 VE OLASI ETK\u0130LER\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Yeni program\u0131n \u00f6nemli ayaklar\u0131ndan birini, para politikas\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim ve enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 uygulanmas\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 2023 Haziran ay\u0131nda merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 ve daha sonra da y\u00f6netimi de\u011fi\u015fti. Yeni ba\u015fkan ve y\u00f6netim, s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 kararl\u0131l\u0131kla uygulad\u0131. Yine lirala\u015fma d\u00f6nemindeki d\u00fczenlemelerin azalt\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 veya kald\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ge\u00e7i\u015f d\u00f6nemi y\u00f6netildi. S\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131 ve normalle\u015fme ba\u015far\u0131 ile uygulan\u0131rken merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131 g\u00f6revinden ayr\u0131ld\u0131. Yeni merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131, mevcut y\u00f6netimin bir \u00fcyesi ve y\u00f6netim de aynen korunuyor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131 ile merkez bankas\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131 para politikas\u0131n\u0131 ve normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecini aynen s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. G\u00f6rev de\u011fi\u015fimi, ekonomik ve finansal bir dalgalanmaya neden olmayacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. MERKEZ BANKASI SIKILA\u015eTIRMAYI ARTIRIR MI? \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00d6nceki merkez bankas\u0131 ba\u015fkan\u0131, 25 Ocak tarihli son faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131 sonras\u0131nda dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci i\u00e7in yeterli parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Yeterli parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma seviyesi kapsam\u0131nda merkez bankas\u0131 politika faizini y\u00fczde 45\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kartt\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 da y\u00fczde 50 seviyesinin \u00fczerinde. Kredi s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131 devam ediyor. Banka, finansal piyasalara aktard\u0131\u011f\u0131 TL likiditesini en aza indirdi. Ba\u015fkan de\u011fi\u015fimi sonras\u0131nda bankadan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 beklentisi \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Banka, muhtemelen yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma seviyesini art\u0131racak. Politika faizi art\u0131\u015f\u0131, bireysel kredilerde yeni s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma, TL likiditesinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 ve kredi kartlar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar beklenmeli.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

8 \u015eubat tarihinde yap\u0131lacak Merkez Bankas\u0131 enflasyon raporu sunumu, yeni s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma beklentileri \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde \u00f6nemli olacak.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. PROGRAMA YEN\u0130 B\u0130R SOLUK GEREK\u0130YOR \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Program\u0131n devam edece\u011fine ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerle program\u0131n enflasyonla m\u00fccadelede ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklentilerdeki zay\u0131flama, programa yeni bir soluk ihtiyac\u0131 yarat\u0131yor. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma politikas\u0131 ile y\u00fcksek maliyet art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 aras\u0131nda reel kesim bask\u0131 alt\u0131nda kal\u0131yor. Yine reel kesim, TL\u2019nin yeniden de\u011ferlenmesinden rahats\u0131z. Y\u00fcksek \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ra\u011fmen hane halklar\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc y\u00fcksek enflasyon nedeniyle erimeye devam ediyor. Reel kesim ve hane halklar\u0131n\u0131n programa olan g\u00fcveni azal\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin risk primi de yeniden 300 puan\u0131n \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Yerel se\u00e7ime kadar program aynen s\u00fcrecek. Ancak yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 \u00f6zellikle enflasyonla m\u00fccadele ve ihracat\u0131n desteklenmesi i\u00e7in yeni \u00f6nlemler gerekecek. \u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da ana senaryo risklere ve belirsizliklere ra\u011fmen \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ekonomi-yeni-yila-hareketli-basladi","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/17076852005QFBtY3MblIyypK.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/17076852005QFBtY3MblIyypK.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":10093,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}