<\/p>
gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> T\u00fcrkiye uzun s\u00fcren bir se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecini geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet ekonomi program\u0131na sahip \u00e7\u0131karak kararl\u0131l\u0131kla uygulanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ekonomi program\u0131 i\u00e7in beklentileri ve bundan sonraki olas\u0131 etkilerini payla\u015fal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 1. YEREL SE\u00c7\u0130MLER \u00d6NCES\u0130 EKONOM\u0130 PROGRAMINA G\u00dcVEN AZALDI \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ve ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n aynen devam etmesi senaryosu i\u00e7inde ekonomi program\u0131na ve T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Yerel se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerindeki enflasyon ve TL\u2019de se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rama olacak beklentisiyle programa g\u00fcven azalm\u0131\u015f ve TL\u2019den yeniden ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. D\u00f6vize y\u00fcksek bir talep olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Kur korumal\u0131 mevduatlarda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme durmu\u015ftu. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalm\u0131\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi takas risk primi yeniden y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda da \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 2. PROGRAMA YEN\u0130DEN G\u00dcVEN \u0130\u00c7\u0130N \u0130LAVE \u00d6NLEMLER GEREK\u0130YOR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 bu olumsuz gidi\u015fin tersine \u00e7evrilmesi i\u00e7in ekonomi program\u0131na yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Bu ama\u00e7la yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131nda para ve maliye politikalar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda yeni \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nmas\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131 var. Yeni \u00f6nlemlerle ilk a\u015famada TL\u2019ye yeniden ge\u00e7i\u015f yarat\u0131lmas\u0131 ve yabanc\u0131lara g\u00fcven verilmesi \u00f6nemli olacak. Enflasyon beklentileri ve fiyat davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da yeterince iyile\u015fmedi. Yaz aylar\u0131ndan itibaren dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecine girilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak buna ra\u011fmen\u00a0<\/span><\/p> 2024 sonu t\u00fcketici enflasyonu beklentileri Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 36 hedefinin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu nedenle \u00f6ncelikle enflasyon beklentilerinde iyile\u015fme sa\u011flayacak yeni s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemleri al\u0131nacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 3. BEKLENEN YEN\u0130 SIKILA\u015eMA \u00d6NLEMLER\u0130 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Ekonomi program\u0131na ve TL\u2019ye yeniden g\u00fcvenin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in para ve maliye politikalar\u0131nda yeni \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Para politikas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik olarak bireysel kredilerde ve kredi kartlar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar yap\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Yine bankalar\u0131n munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131labilecek. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 50 olan politika faizini ise korumas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak mevduat ve kredi faizleri y\u00fckselecektir. Maliye politikas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda kamu harcamalar\u0131nda yeni s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar olas\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Yerel se\u00e7imler nedeniyle geni\u015fleyen kamu harcamalar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Vergilerde istisnalar azalt\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Katma de\u011fer vergisinde asgari oranlar y\u00fckseltilecektir. Birden fazla konutu olanlar i\u00e7in ilave vergi g\u00fcndemde.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar ve enerji alan\u0131nda verilen s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. Nisan ay\u0131nda sanayi do\u011falgaz\u0131 ve elektrik fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar olabilecek.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 4. YEN\u0130 \u00d6NLEMLER REEL SEKT\u00d6R\u00dc G\u00d6ZETMEL\u0130; T\u0130CAR\u0130 KRED\u0130 FA\u0130Z ORANLARI REEL SEKT\u00d6R\u00dcN KIRMIZI \u00c7\u0130ZG\u0130S\u0130N\u0130 A\u015eTI \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Mart ay\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla TL ticari kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. B\u00f6ylece ticari kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 reel sekt\u00f6r \u015firketlerinin k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgisini a\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut faizler ile kredi kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalacak. Reel sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan nakit ve risk y\u00f6netimi kritik olacak. Reel sekt\u00f6rde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. Kontroll\u00fc k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme bir se\u00e7enek olacak. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 5. D\u00d6V\u0130Z KURLARINDA SEYR\u0130 EKONOM\u0130 PROGRAMINDAK\u0130 YEN\u0130 \u00d6NLEMLER BEL\u0130RLEYECEK \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Mevcut ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ve politikalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilerek s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi halinde yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda bir s\u0131\u00e7rama ya\u015fanmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda bir s\u0131\u00e7rama ancak ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ve politikalar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fimiyle olabilecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bununla birlikte TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 devam edecek. Ancak de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n yine kontroll\u00fc ve daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hale gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> TL\u2019ye yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz talebinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 programda sa\u011flanacak iyile\u015ftirmelere ve al\u0131nacak yeni \u00f6nlemlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Programa yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flanmas\u0131 halinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi de TL\u2019yi destekleyecek. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 olumlu olacak. Ancak ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar rekabette zorlanmaya devam edecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> Programa ve TL\u2019ye yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar\u0131n reel sekt\u00f6re olas\u0131 etkileri mutlaka g\u00f6zetilmeli.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ekonomi-programina-yeniden-guven-saglanacak","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1713128400LVBEhhsepfxNhfR.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":5306,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":50897,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":50771,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Ekonomi program\u0131na yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flanacak","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":" gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> T\u00fcrkiye uzun s\u00fcren bir se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecini geride b\u0131rakt\u0131. Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 h\u00fck\u00fcmet ekonomi program\u0131na sahip \u00e7\u0131karak kararl\u0131l\u0131kla uygulanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ekonomi program\u0131 i\u00e7in beklentileri ve bundan sonraki olas\u0131 etkilerini payla\u015fal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 1. YEREL SE\u00c7\u0130MLER \u00d6NCES\u0130 EKONOM\u0130 PROGRAMINA G\u00dcVEN AZALDI \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ve ekonomi politikalar\u0131n\u0131n aynen devam etmesi senaryosu i\u00e7inde ekonomi program\u0131na ve T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Yerel se\u00e7imler \u00f6ncesi beklentilerin \u00e7ok \u00fczerindeki enflasyon ve TL\u2019de se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 s\u0131\u00e7rama olacak beklentisiyle programa g\u00fcven azalm\u0131\u015f ve TL\u2019den yeniden ka\u00e7\u0131\u015f ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. D\u00f6vize y\u00fcksek bir talep olu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Kur korumal\u0131 mevduatlarda \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclme durmu\u015ftu. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n d\u00f6viz rezervleri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalm\u0131\u015f, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kredi takas risk primi yeniden y\u00fckselmi\u015fti. Portf\u00f6y yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda da \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 2. PROGRAMA YEN\u0130DEN G\u00dcVEN \u0130\u00c7\u0130N \u0130LAVE \u00d6NLEMLER GEREK\u0130YOR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 bu olumsuz gidi\u015fin tersine \u00e7evrilmesi i\u00e7in ekonomi program\u0131na yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flanmas\u0131 gerekiyor. Bu ama\u00e7la yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131nda para ve maliye politikalar\u0131 taraf\u0131nda yeni \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nmas\u0131 ihtiyac\u0131 var. Yeni \u00f6nlemlerle ilk a\u015famada TL\u2019ye yeniden ge\u00e7i\u015f yarat\u0131lmas\u0131 ve yabanc\u0131lara g\u00fcven verilmesi \u00f6nemli olacak. Enflasyon beklentileri ve fiyat davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 da yeterince iyile\u015fmedi. Yaz aylar\u0131ndan itibaren dezenflasyon s\u00fcrecine girilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak buna ra\u011fmen\u00a0<\/span><\/p> 2024 sonu t\u00fcketici enflasyonu beklentileri Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 36 hedefinin \u00e7ok \u00fczerinde olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu nedenle \u00f6ncelikle enflasyon beklentilerinde iyile\u015fme sa\u011flayacak yeni s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemleri al\u0131nacakt\u0131r.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 3. BEKLENEN YEN\u0130 SIKILA\u015eMA \u00d6NLEMLER\u0130 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Ekonomi program\u0131na ve TL\u2019ye yeniden g\u00fcvenin sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in para ve maliye politikalar\u0131nda yeni \u00f6nlemler al\u0131nmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Para politikas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya y\u00f6nelik olarak bireysel kredilerde ve kredi kartlar\u0131nda s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar yap\u0131lmas\u0131 olas\u0131. Yine bankalar\u0131n munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 art\u0131r\u0131labilecek. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 50 olan politika faizini ise korumas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak mevduat ve kredi faizleri y\u00fckselecektir. Maliye politikas\u0131 taraf\u0131nda kamu harcamalar\u0131nda yeni s\u0131n\u0131rlamalar olas\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Yerel se\u00e7imler nedeniyle geni\u015fleyen kamu harcamalar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Vergilerde istisnalar azalt\u0131lacakt\u0131r. Katma de\u011fer vergisinde asgari oranlar y\u00fckseltilecektir. Birden fazla konutu olanlar i\u00e7in ilave vergi g\u00fcndemde.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 enerji fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar ve enerji alan\u0131nda verilen s\u00fcbvansiyonlar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. Nisan ay\u0131nda sanayi do\u011falgaz\u0131 ve elektrik fiyatlar\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar olabilecek.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 4. YEN\u0130 \u00d6NLEMLER REEL SEKT\u00d6R\u00dc G\u00d6ZETMEL\u0130; T\u0130CAR\u0130 KRED\u0130 FA\u0130Z ORANLARI REEL SEKT\u00d6R\u00dcN KIRMIZI \u00c7\u0130ZG\u0130S\u0130N\u0130 A\u015eTI \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Mart ay\u0131nda Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n politika faizi art\u0131\u015f\u0131yla TL ticari kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131. B\u00f6ylece ticari kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 reel sekt\u00f6r \u015firketlerinin k\u0131rm\u0131z\u0131 \u00e7izgisini a\u015ft\u0131. Mevcut faizler ile kredi kullan\u0131m\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde azalacak. Reel sekt\u00f6r a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan nakit ve risk y\u00f6netimi kritik olacak. Reel sekt\u00f6rde s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz. Kontroll\u00fc k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme bir se\u00e7enek olacak. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 5. D\u00d6V\u0130Z KURLARINDA SEYR\u0130 EKONOM\u0130 PROGRAMINDAK\u0130 YEN\u0130 \u00d6NLEMLER BEL\u0130RLEYECEK \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Mevcut ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ve politikalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lendirilerek s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclmesi halinde yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda bir s\u0131\u00e7rama ya\u015fanmas\u0131 olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131nda bir s\u0131\u00e7rama ancak ekonomi y\u00f6netimi ve politikalar\u0131n\u0131n de\u011fi\u015fimiyle olabilecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bununla birlikte TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131 devam edecek. Ancak de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n yine kontroll\u00fc ve daha s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 hale gelece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> TL\u2019ye yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flanmas\u0131 ve d\u00f6viz talebinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131 programda sa\u011flanacak iyile\u015ftirmelere ve al\u0131nacak yeni \u00f6nlemlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olacak. Programa yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flanmas\u0131 halinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek yabanc\u0131 sermaye giri\u015fi de TL\u2019yi destekleyecek. Enflasyonla m\u00fccadele a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flamas\u0131 olumlu olacak. Ancak ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar rekabette zorlanmaya devam edecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> SON S\u00d6Z\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> Programa ve TL\u2019ye yeniden g\u00fcven sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in at\u0131lacak ad\u0131mlar\u0131n reel sekt\u00f6re olas\u0131 etkileri mutlaka g\u00f6zetilmeli.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ekonomi-programina-yeniden-guven-saglanacak","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1713128400LVBEhhsepfxNhfR.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1713128400LVBEhhsepfxNhfR.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":5306,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}
<\/p>