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hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Orta vadeli ekonomi plan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Yani hedefler netle\u015ftirildi. Bu hedefleri koyarken de dolar kuru ortalama olarak, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 33.20 TL, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 42 TL, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 44.4 TL ve 2027 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise 46.9 TL de\u011ferleri baz al\u0131nd\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bu durumda 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu g\u00fcnlerinde 34 TL olan kurda y\u00fckseli\u015f beklenmiyor diyebiliriz. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 26.50 art\u0131\u015f beklenirken, ayn\u0131 y\u0131l enflasyon hedefi y\u00fczde 17.5 olarak korundu. Kur daha y\u00fcksekken maliyet enflasyonunun T\u00dcFE\u2019ye etkisi daha az olabilir mi? Kald\u0131 ki, piyasa daha da y\u00fckselir psikolojisine girerse fiyatlamalar daha yukar\u0131dan olabilir ve enflasyona birebir yans\u0131yabilir. Daha ilgin\u00e7 olan\u0131, 2026 ve 2027 y\u0131llar\u0131nda dolar kuru ortalama de\u011ferinde sadece y\u00fczde 5.6 civar\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken bu hesap ne kadar tutar, hep birlikte g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> SANAY\u0130 \u00dcRET\u0130M VER\u0130LER\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere bak\u0131yoruz ve sanayinin ne durumda oldu\u011funu daha da a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6zlemleyebiliyoruz.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u0130lk olarak 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 2. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisine bakal\u0131m. S\u00f6z konusu veriye g\u00f6re sanayi ilgili d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 1.8 daralm\u0131\u015f, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede rekor y\u00fczde 9.6 oran\u0131nda net vergi art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Vergilerin firmalar\u0131n nakit \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmayal\u0131m. Di\u011fer yandan, kredi hedefleri nedeniyle bankalar\u0131n kredi kulland\u0131r\u0131m zorlu\u011fu ya\u015famas\u0131 da krediye ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, firmalar\u0131n kaynak s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015farken vergiyi nakit \u00f6demesi de ayr\u0131 bir sorun olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u0130\u00e7 talebi daralt\u0131c\u0131 politikalar\u0131n etkisi kredili konut sat\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften, toptan ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kadar bir\u00e7ok yerde kendisini hissettiriyor. En son a\u00e7\u0131klanan temmuz ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim verisi de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3.9\u2019luk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle (bir \u00f6nceki veri de y\u00fczde 5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00fckseltilerek revize edildi) durgunlu\u011fun ayak sesleri olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Kald\u0131 ki, imalat sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki daralma y\u00fczde 5.1 ve maalesef bu daralma hi\u00e7 dillendirilmiyor. Bu nedenle ne zaman \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm aranaca\u011f\u0131 da belirsiz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00dcretim darald\u0131k\u00e7a arz bollu\u011fu ya\u015fanamayaca\u011f\u0131ndan enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de kolay olmayabilir. Temmuz ay\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan ciro endeksinde y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f rakam\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 58.3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 39.8\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi de ivme kayb\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor. Kald\u0131 ki, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u0131ll\u0131k ciro art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 27 ciro art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flayan sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ciro art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda olup reel bir art\u0131\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u0130\u00c7 TALEP DARALIRSA<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda 2024 Temmuz ay\u0131nda ticaret sat\u0131\u015f hacminin y\u00fczde 3.4 azalmas\u0131 da yukar\u0131da bahsetti\u011fimiz t\u00fcm hususlar\u0131 teyit eder mahiyettedir.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Peki, i\u00e7 talebi daraltarak enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrelim derken, beklentisi azalan sanayicinin yat\u0131r\u0131m ve \u00fcretim i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 da durdurdu\u011fumuzun ne kadar fark\u0131nday\u0131z? Arz\u0131 olumsuz etkileyen bu gidi\u015fat ne zaman duracak? Arz daralmas\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131rken (en son a\u00e7\u0131klanan kapasite oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 76\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesi de bunu teyit ediyor) \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artan n\u00fcfus nedeniyle y\u00fckselen talebi kar\u015f\u0131lama esnas\u0131nda y\u00fckselmemesini nas\u0131l sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131z? Ceza kesmek sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm m\u00fc? Yoksa sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir serbest piyasa ekonomisi olu\u015fturmakta \u00e7ok mu ge\u00e7 kald\u0131k?\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem bir yandan kaynak eksikli\u011finin daha fazla hissedilece\u011fi, di\u011fer yandan da daralan i\u00e7 talep nedeniyle ciro art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Burada profesyonel bir y\u00f6netim kurulunun t\u00fcm rasyolar\u0131 ciddi takip etmesi, alacak devir h\u0131z\u0131ndan stok devir h\u0131z\u0131na kadar bir\u00e7ok detay\u0131n iyi planlanmas\u0131 ve nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n buna g\u00f6re revize edilmesi \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Unutmayal\u0131m; evdeki hesap \u00e7ar\u015f\u0131ya uymazsa, Dimyat\u2019a pirince giderken evdeki bulgurdan olmak da var.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ekonomi-nereye-gidiyor-","tags":"ekenomi,sanayi,\u00fcretim","meta_title":"Ekonomi nereye gidiyor?","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"ekonomi sanayi \u00fcretim","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1726520400SOw6HpS7afgSVhH.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":2908,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":55409,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":55283,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Ekonomi nereye gidiyor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":" hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Orta vadeli ekonomi plan\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Yani hedefler netle\u015ftirildi. Bu hedefleri koyarken de dolar kuru ortalama olarak, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 33.20 TL, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 42 TL, 2026 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in 44.4 TL ve 2027 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise 46.9 TL de\u011ferleri baz al\u0131nd\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bu durumda 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu g\u00fcnlerinde 34 TL olan kurda y\u00fckseli\u015f beklenmiyor diyebiliriz. 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 26.50 art\u0131\u015f beklenirken, ayn\u0131 y\u0131l enflasyon hedefi y\u00fczde 17.5 olarak korundu. Kur daha y\u00fcksekken maliyet enflasyonunun T\u00dcFE\u2019ye etkisi daha az olabilir mi? Kald\u0131 ki, piyasa daha da y\u00fckselir psikolojisine girerse fiyatlamalar daha yukar\u0131dan olabilir ve enflasyona birebir yans\u0131yabilir. Daha ilgin\u00e7 olan\u0131, 2026 ve 2027 y\u0131llar\u0131nda dolar kuru ortalama de\u011ferinde sadece y\u00fczde 5.6 civar\u0131nda bir art\u0131\u015f \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken bu hesap ne kadar tutar, hep birlikte g\u00f6rece\u011fiz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> SANAY\u0130 \u00dcRET\u0130M VER\u0130LER\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Son a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere bak\u0131yoruz ve sanayinin ne durumda oldu\u011funu daha da a\u00e7\u0131k bir \u015fekilde g\u00f6zlemleyebiliyoruz.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u0130lk olarak 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 2. \u00e7eyrek GSYH verisine bakal\u0131m. S\u00f6z konusu veriye g\u00f6re sanayi ilgili d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 1.8 daralm\u0131\u015f, b\u00fcy\u00fcmede rekor y\u00fczde 9.6 oran\u0131nda net vergi art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan kaynaklan\u0131yor. Vergilerin firmalar\u0131n nakit \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 unutmayal\u0131m. Di\u011fer yandan, kredi hedefleri nedeniyle bankalar\u0131n kredi kulland\u0131r\u0131m zorlu\u011fu ya\u015famas\u0131 da krediye ula\u015f\u0131m\u0131 zorla\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, firmalar\u0131n kaynak s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131s\u0131 ya\u015farken vergiyi nakit \u00f6demesi de ayr\u0131 bir sorun olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u0130\u00e7 talebi daralt\u0131c\u0131 politikalar\u0131n etkisi kredili konut sat\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015ften, toptan ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f hacmindeki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe kadar bir\u00e7ok yerde kendisini hissettiriyor. En son a\u00e7\u0131klanan temmuz ay\u0131 sanayi \u00fcretim verisi de y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3.9\u2019luk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fle (bir \u00f6nceki veri de y\u00fczde 5 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe y\u00fckseltilerek revize edildi) durgunlu\u011fun ayak sesleri olarak kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Kald\u0131 ki, imalat sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki daralma y\u00fczde 5.1 ve maalesef bu daralma hi\u00e7 dillendirilmiyor. Bu nedenle ne zaman \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm aranaca\u011f\u0131 da belirsiz.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00dcretim darald\u0131k\u00e7a arz bollu\u011fu ya\u015fanamayaca\u011f\u0131ndan enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc de kolay olmayabilir. Temmuz ay\u0131 i\u00e7in a\u00e7\u0131klanan ciro endeksinde y\u0131ll\u0131k art\u0131\u015f rakam\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 58.3\u2019ten y\u00fczde 39.8\u2019e d\u00fc\u015fmesi de ivme kayb\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a g\u00f6steriyor. Kald\u0131 ki, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u0131ll\u0131k ciro art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha da d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckt\u00fcr. Y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 27 ciro art\u0131\u015f\u0131 sa\u011flayan sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde ciro art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun olduk\u00e7a alt\u0131nda olup reel bir art\u0131\u015f olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u0130\u00c7 TALEP DARALIRSA<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bunlar\u0131n yan\u0131nda 2024 Temmuz ay\u0131nda ticaret sat\u0131\u015f hacminin y\u00fczde 3.4 azalmas\u0131 da yukar\u0131da bahsetti\u011fimiz t\u00fcm hususlar\u0131 teyit eder mahiyettedir.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Peki, i\u00e7 talebi daraltarak enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrelim derken, beklentisi azalan sanayicinin yat\u0131r\u0131m ve \u00fcretim i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131 da durdurdu\u011fumuzun ne kadar fark\u0131nday\u0131z? Arz\u0131 olumsuz etkileyen bu gidi\u015fat ne zaman duracak? Arz daralmas\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131rken (en son a\u00e7\u0131klanan kapasite oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 76\u2019n\u0131n alt\u0131na inmesi de bunu teyit ediyor) \u00fcr\u00fcn fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n artan n\u00fcfus nedeniyle y\u00fckselen talebi kar\u015f\u0131lama esnas\u0131nda y\u00fckselmemesini nas\u0131l sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131z? Ceza kesmek sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm m\u00fc? Yoksa sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir serbest piyasa ekonomisi olu\u015fturmakta \u00e7ok mu ge\u00e7 kald\u0131k?\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nem bir yandan kaynak eksikli\u011finin daha fazla hissedilece\u011fi, di\u011fer yandan da daralan i\u00e7 talep nedeniyle ciro art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00f6nem olacak gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Burada profesyonel bir y\u00f6netim kurulunun t\u00fcm rasyolar\u0131 ciddi takip etmesi, alacak devir h\u0131z\u0131ndan stok devir h\u0131z\u0131na kadar bir\u00e7ok detay\u0131n iyi planlanmas\u0131 ve nakit ak\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n buna g\u00f6re revize edilmesi \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olacakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Unutmayal\u0131m; evdeki hesap \u00e7ar\u015f\u0131ya uymazsa, Dimyat\u2019a pirince giderken evdeki bulgurdan olmak da var.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"ekonomi-nereye-gidiyor-","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1726520400SOw6HpS7afgSVhH.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1726520400SOw6HpS7afgSVhH.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"ekenomi,sanayi,\u00fcretim","meta_title":"Ekonomi nereye gidiyor?","meta_description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","meta_keywords":"ekonomi sanayi \u00fcretim","view_count":2908,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}
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