{"status":true,"post":{"id":19049,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:19:48","created_at":"2018-09-30T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:19:48.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":19049,"is_featured":0,"title":"Ekonomi nereye gidiyor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6nce kurlardaki agresif hareketle tan\u0131\u015fan, daha sonra y\u00fcksek kur maliyetinin yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyonla \u015fok olan ve akabinde reel faizlerin ayarlanmas\u0131yla y\u00fcksek faizle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fan reel sekt\u00f6r, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde girdi\u011fi y\u00fcksek maliyet ve y\u00fcksek faiz sarmal\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7erisinde m\u00fccadelesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Di\u011fer piyasalarla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tamamen ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f olarak hareket eden T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131, en ba\u015f\u0131nda ekonomik verilerle alakal\u0131 olmayan bir tav\u0131r sergilerken, iktidar\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 her a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc veya rahats\u0131z oldu\u011funa dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla sert yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketleri adeta inad\u0131na yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Konunun siyasi oldu\u011fu apa\u00e7\u0131k belliydi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu geli\u015fmeler tabi ki ekonomiyi zorlamaktayd\u0131. \u00d6yle oldu ki baz\u0131 firmalar fiyat listelerini bile geri \u00e7ekip beklemeye ge\u00e7tiler.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bir yandan y\u00fcksek dalgalanmalar ya\u015fayarak hem maliyet hem de fiyat \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 imkans\u0131z hale getiren kurlar, bir yandan y\u00fcksek faizler ciddi problem olmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Uzunca bir s\u00fcredir bu konuyla ilgili \u0131srarl\u0131 uyar\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 hat\u0131rlars\u0131n\u0131z. O zamanlar sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmek \u00e7ok kolayd\u0131. \u015eimdi gelen endekslere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ne reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ne de t\u00fcketicinin ekonomiye g\u00fcveninin son derece olumsuz oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl 2018\u2019de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 59.3 (son 2 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fc), perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00fcven endeksi 88.5, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00fcven endeksi 79.4 ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00fcven endeksi 57.3 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00fcven endeksiyle t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi hemen hemen ayn\u0131. 100 oran\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131 gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. 50 civar\u0131 rakamlar ise durumun ne kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar bir yana, bankalarda da davran\u0131\u015f farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin; limit art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusunda son derece negatifler. Yani \u015firketlerin ihtiyac\u0131 olan ek krediyi teminat olsa bile kar\u015f\u0131lamaktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131yorlar. Bunun yan\u0131nda daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc, \u015firketlerin geri \u00f6deyerek bo\u015faltt\u0131klar\u0131 kredi limitini bo\u015f tutarak yeniden kullanmaya izin vermeyebiliyor. Y\u00fcksek faiz yan\u0131nda ekstra i\u015flem komisyonlar\u0131 talep etmeleri de i\u015fin cabas\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu durumda \u015firketler ayn\u0131 anda kaynak bulamama, y\u00fcksek faiz ve y\u00fcksek kurdan dolay\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckselen maliyet problemiyle y\u00fcz y\u00fcze kald\u0131lar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Y\u00fckselen faizler farkl\u0131 nedenlerle y\u00fckselen kurlara k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olamad\u0131. \u015eimdi ise kurlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n zarar etmesi anlam\u0131na gelecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>PROFESYONELCE Y\u00d6NET\u0130LMEL\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Finansman y\u00f6netiminde gelece\u011fi iyi planlayamam\u0131\u015f, nakit ak\u0131m\u0131na hakim olamayan firmalar\u0131 zor g\u00fcnler bekliyor olabilir. Profesyonel olma zaman\u0131 ve amat\u00f6rce hareketlerin telafisi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hem m\u00fc\u015fteri riski (default risk) hem fiyat riski (y\u00fcksek maliyetle elde kalma), hem d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ciro riski (\u00f6deme tahsilat dengesinin bozulmas\u0131) gibi bir\u00e7ok risklerin profesyonelce y\u00f6netilmesi \u015fart.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"ekonomi-nereye-gidiyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Ekonomi nereye gidiyor?","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":89,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":19148,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":19049,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Ekonomi nereye gidiyor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6nce kurlardaki agresif hareketle tan\u0131\u015fan, daha sonra y\u00fcksek kur maliyetinin yans\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131 enflasyonla \u015fok olan ve akabinde reel faizlerin ayarlanmas\u0131yla y\u00fcksek faizle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fan reel sekt\u00f6r, h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde girdi\u011fi y\u00fcksek maliyet ve y\u00fcksek faiz sarmal\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7erisinde m\u00fccadelesini s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Di\u011fer piyasalarla k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda tamamen ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f olarak hareket eden T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131, en ba\u015f\u0131nda ekonomik verilerle alakal\u0131 olmayan bir tav\u0131r sergilerken, iktidar\u0131n yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 her a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc veya rahats\u0131z oldu\u011funa dair a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla sert yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc hareketleri adeta inad\u0131na yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Konunun siyasi oldu\u011fu apa\u00e7\u0131k belliydi. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu geli\u015fmeler tabi ki ekonomiyi zorlamaktayd\u0131. \u00d6yle oldu ki baz\u0131 firmalar fiyat listelerini bile geri \u00e7ekip beklemeye ge\u00e7tiler.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bir yandan y\u00fcksek dalgalanmalar ya\u015fayarak hem maliyet hem de fiyat \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 imkans\u0131z hale getiren kurlar, bir yandan y\u00fcksek faizler ciddi problem olmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Uzunca bir s\u00fcredir bu konuyla ilgili \u0131srarl\u0131 uyar\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 hat\u0131rlars\u0131n\u0131z. O zamanlar sorunu \u00e7\u00f6zmek \u00e7ok kolayd\u0131. \u015eimdi gelen endekslere bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda ne reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ne de t\u00fcketicinin ekonomiye g\u00fcveninin son derece olumsuz oldu\u011funu g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin T\u00dc\u0130K verilerine g\u00f6re Eyl\u00fcl 2018\u2019de t\u00fcketici g\u00fcveni 59.3 (son 2 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u011f\u00fc), perakende sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00fcven endeksi 88.5, hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00fcven endeksi 79.4 ve in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00fcven endeksi 57.3 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc g\u00fcven endeksiyle t\u00fcketici g\u00fcven endeksi hemen hemen ayn\u0131. 100 oran\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131 gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik karamsarl\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6stermektedir. 50 civar\u0131 rakamlar ise durumun ne kadar k\u00f6t\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">B\u00fct\u00fcn bunlar bir yana, bankalarda da davran\u0131\u015f farkl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. \u00d6rne\u011fin; limit art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 konusunda son derece negatifler. Yani \u015firketlerin ihtiyac\u0131 olan ek krediyi teminat olsa bile kar\u015f\u0131lamaktan ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131yorlar. Bunun yan\u0131nda daha da k\u00f6t\u00fcs\u00fc, \u015firketlerin geri \u00f6deyerek bo\u015faltt\u0131klar\u0131 kredi limitini bo\u015f tutarak yeniden kullanmaya izin vermeyebiliyor. Y\u00fcksek faiz yan\u0131nda ekstra i\u015flem komisyonlar\u0131 talep etmeleri de i\u015fin cabas\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu durumda \u015firketler ayn\u0131 anda kaynak bulamama, y\u00fcksek faiz ve y\u00fcksek kurdan dolay\u0131 h\u0131zla y\u00fckselen maliyet problemiyle y\u00fcz y\u00fcze kald\u0131lar.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Y\u00fckselen faizler farkl\u0131 nedenlerle y\u00fckselen kurlara k\u0131sa vadede \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olamad\u0131. \u015eimdi ise kurlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi ithalat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131n zarar etmesi anlam\u0131na gelecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>PROFESYONELCE Y\u00d6NET\u0130LMEL\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Finansman y\u00f6netiminde gelece\u011fi iyi planlayamam\u0131\u015f, nakit ak\u0131m\u0131na hakim olamayan firmalar\u0131 zor g\u00fcnler bekliyor olabilir. Profesyonel olma zaman\u0131 ve amat\u00f6rce hareketlerin telafisi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayabilir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc hem m\u00fc\u015fteri riski (default risk) hem fiyat riski (y\u00fcksek maliyetle elde kalma), hem d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ciro riski (\u00f6deme tahsilat dengesinin bozulmas\u0131) gibi bir\u00e7ok risklerin profesyonelce y\u00f6netilmesi \u015fart.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"ekonomi-nereye-gidiyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Ekonomi nereye gidiyor?","meta_description":"Hikmet Baydar","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":89,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}