{"status":true,"post":{"id":22804,"user_id":1,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:21:02","created_at":"2020-08-27T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:21:02.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":22804,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00fcnyay\u0131 bekleyen b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fim","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e<\/strong><\/span>
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Elime yeni bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma ge\u00e7ti. <\/span>
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Son birka\u00e7 Eko-Mercek\u2019te geride kalan ve gelmekte olan \u2018d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni\u2019 ile ilgili sohbetimize k\u0131sa bir ara verip bu ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n kimi notlar\u0131n\u0131 sizinle payla\u015fmak istiyorum. <\/span>
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Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z, konumuzdan \u00e7ok da uzakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f say\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131z. Zira ara\u015ft\u0131rma, d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde nas\u0131l \u015fekillenece\u011fine ili\u015fkin. <\/span>
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Sosyolojinin ve iktisad\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fclerinden \u0130bn-i Haldun, \u201cCo\u011frafya bir \u00fclkenin kaderidir\u201d demi\u015fti. Nas\u0131l, \u0130bn-i Haldun\u2019un 14. y\u00fczy\u0131ldan bug\u00fcne s\u00fcz\u00fcl\u00fcp gelen bu s\u00f6z\u00fc h\u00e2l\u00e2 ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini koruyorsa, \u2018sosyolojinin babas\u0131\u2019 kabul edilen Aguste Comte\u2019un 19. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fi \u201cDemografi bir \u00fclkenin kaderidir\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fc de ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini koruyor.<\/span>
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\u2018B\u00fcy\u00fck resme\u2019 bakmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan herkesin yolu \u00f6nce demografiden ge\u00e7mek zorunda... Ekonominin geli\u015fme potansiyeli konusundaki her ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve analize de mutlaka n\u00fcfus yap\u0131s\u0131ndan ba\u015flamak gerekiyor. D\u00fcnyay\u0131 ve \u00fclkemizi gelecekte hangi e\u011filimlerin nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini do\u011fru kavramak istiyorsak da \u00f6yle... <\/span>
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***<\/span>
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Neyse, laf\u0131 uzatmadan gelelim ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya... <\/span>
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Ara\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 ABD\u2019de faaliyet g\u00f6steren Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcm Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IHME) yapm\u0131\u015f. Washington \u00dcniversitesi\u2019ne ba\u011fl\u0131 enstit\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131nda Profes\u00f6r Christopher J. L. Murray var. D\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda sa\u011fl\u0131k konular\u0131nda uzman bir isim. \u015eu s\u0131ralar yeni tip koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn sa\u011fl\u0131k ve n\u00fcfus \u00fczerindeki etkilerini ara\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. <\/span>
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Bu yaz\u0131ya konu edece\u011fimiz yeni tamamlad\u0131klar\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rma ise \u2018do\u011fum oranlar\u0131\u2019 ile ilgili...<\/span>
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\u00dcnl\u00fc bilim dergisi The Lancet\u2019de yay\u0131mlanan ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131. \u00d6zetle: Do\u011fum oranlar\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n gelece\u011fini etkileyecek h\u0131zda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. 195 \u00fclkenin 183\u2019\u00fcnde do\u011fum oranlar\u0131 \u00fclkenin mevcut n\u00fcfusunun azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak d\u00fczeye indi. <\/span>
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Bu e\u011filim, aynen devam ederse, y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonuna varmadan \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn n\u00fcfusu ciddi \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fecek. Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck ve geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerinin n\u00fcfuslar\u0131 yar\u0131ya inecek. Dile kolay! Bu da o \u00fclkeler ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnya \u00fczerinde \u2018inan\u0131lmaz\u2019 etkiler yaratacak. <\/span>
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***<\/span>
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Meselenin \u00f6z\u00fc \u015fu: <\/span>
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\u00c7ok de\u011fil, bir insan \u00f6mr\u00fc kadar bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce, bir kad\u0131n\u0131n do\u011furdu\u011fu ortalama \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131 neredeyse 5\u2019ti. Neredeyse diyorum, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00e7arp\u0131p, b\u00f6l\u00fcnce rakamlar k\u00fcsuratl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Mesela 1950 y\u0131l\u0131nda kad\u0131nlar\u0131n do\u011fum oran\u0131 ortalama 4.7 d\u00fczeyindeydi. Yani kad\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na 5\u2019e yak\u0131n \u00e7ocuk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyordu. \u015eimdi ise 2.4. Yani son 70 y\u0131lda d\u00fcnyada kad\u0131nlar\u0131n do\u011fum oran\u0131, bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle kad\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fczde 95 geriledi!<\/span>
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Burada kritik say\u0131 2.1. Bir kad\u0131n\u0131n do\u011furdu\u011fu ortalama \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131 yani \u2018do\u011furganl\u0131k oran\u0131\u2019 2.1\u2019in alt\u0131na indi\u011finde n\u00fcfus da azalmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. <\/span>
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Hesap basit: Bir \u00e7ocuk iki ki\u015fiden oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re, n\u00fcfusun ayn\u0131 kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in dahi do\u011fum oran\u0131 2 olmal\u0131. <\/span>
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\u201cPeki neden 2.1 kritik oran?\u201d derseniz, hayat\u0131n \u00e7arklar\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate almak gerekiyor da ondan. En geli\u015fmi\u015f sa\u011fl\u0131k sistemine sahip \u00fclkelerde bile baz\u0131 \u00e7ocuklar yeti\u015fkinli\u011fe eri\u015femeden hayatlar\u0131n\u0131 kaybediyor.<\/span>
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T\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada kad\u0131nlar, art\u0131k daha az say\u0131da \u00e7ocuk sahibi olmay\u0131 se\u00e7iyor. Nedenler \u00e7e\u015fitli... Ekonomik zorluklardan tutun da, kad\u0131nlar\u0131n e\u011fitime ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelmesine dek uzanan pek \u00e7ok neden var. Ama sonu\u00e7ta, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 devam etti\u011finde bu y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda kad\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131 1.7\u2019ye kadar d\u00fc\u015fecek. Bu oran, \u2018kritik oran\u2019 olan <\/span>
2.1\u2019in hayli alt\u0131nda. <\/span>
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***<\/span>
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Gelelim detaylara... Bu geli\u015fmeden en \u00e7ok kim etkilenecek? <\/span>
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Yap\u0131lan hesaplamalar b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n etkilenece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.Senaryoya g\u00f6re, 2064 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu 9.7 milyar ile zirveye ula\u015facak. Ama 2100 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde 8.8 milyara inecek. <\/span>
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Tabii, her \u00fclke i\u00e7in hikaye farkl\u0131 olacak. Mesela Japonya... Bu \u00fclkede n\u00fcfus azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Sahip oldu\u011fu topra\u011fa g\u00f6re d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kalabal\u0131k \u00fclkelerinden biri olan Japonya, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda 128 milyon ile en y\u00fcksek n\u00fcfus d\u00fczeyine eri\u015fti. Yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlar, bu y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda Japonya\u2019n\u0131n n\u00fcfusunun 53 milyona d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. <\/span>
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\u00dclkelerin \u2018kaderini belirleyecek\u2019 bu b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fim, ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, 23 \u00fclkede n\u00fcfus, y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda yar\u0131dan fazla azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n \u015fu s\u0131ralar <\/span>
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61 milyon olan n\u00fcfusu, bir insan \u00f6mr\u00fc kadar bir zaman i\u00e7inde 28 milyona d\u00fc\u015febilir. \u0130spanya ve Portekiz\u2019i de benzer bir durum bekliyor. <\/span>
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Ama n\u00fcfuslar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 80 y\u0131lda yar\u0131dan fazla azalacaklar aras\u0131nda sadece ya\u015fl\u0131 Avrupa \u00fclkeleri yok. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, 23 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda Asya \u00fclkeleri G\u00fcney Kore ve Tayland da var. <\/span>
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K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen bir n\u00fcfusun etkileri neler olabilir? N\u00fcfusun birim ve yap\u0131 olarak de\u011fi\u015fmesi d\u00fcnyay\u0131 nas\u0131l \u015fekillendirecek? \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma ya\u015fam\u0131, vergi gelirleri, sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmetleri ne gibi de\u011fi\u015fimlere u\u011frayacak? <\/span>
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Sorular \u00e7o\u011falt\u0131labilir. Ezc\u00fcmle, d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n gelece\u011fini etkileyecek \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fiyor. \u00c7ok de\u011fil, belki \u00e7ocuklar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n, belki torunlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfus yap\u0131s\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan da epey farkl\u0131 bir yer olacak. <\/span>
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Peki, \u00fclkeler k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen n\u00fcfusa haz\u0131r m\u0131? Sadece k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen de\u011fil, ya\u015flanan bir n\u00fcfusa haz\u0131r m\u0131y\u0131z?<\/span>
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Eko-Mercek\u2019te b\u00fcy\u00fck resme bakmaya devam edece\u011fiz... <\/span>
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T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019N\u0130N 2100 N\u00dcFUS PROJEKS\u0130YONU 101 M\u0130LYON<\/strong><\/span>
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\u201cYa T\u00fcrkiye?\u201d diye sordu\u011funuzu duyar gibiyim. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye de n\u00fcfus kaybedece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda. Ama \u00f6yle \u00e7ok de\u011fil. \u00d6nce 110 milyon civar\u0131na t\u0131rmanaca\u011f\u0131z. Sonra azalaca\u011f\u0131z. Ama her hal\u00fckarda y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda 100 milyonun \u00fczerinde bir n\u00fcfusa sahip olaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z tahmin ediliyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada 2100 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfus projeksiyonu 101 milyon.<\/span>
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N\u0130JERYA, 80 YIL SONRA \u00c7\u0130N\u2019\u0130 GER\u0130DE BIRAKACAK<\/strong><\/span>
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Bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck n\u00fcfusuna sahip \u00fclkesi \u00c7in. Peki, orada nas\u0131l bir geli\u015fme bekleniyor?<\/span>
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Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, \u00c7in\u2019in zirveye 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00c7in\u2019in n\u00fcfusu d\u00f6rt y\u0131l sonra tam 1 milyar 400 milyon olacak. Ard\u0131ndan ini\u015fe ge\u00e7ecek. Dev \u00c7in\u2019in n\u00fcfusu da y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda neredeyse yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azalarak 732 milyona inecek. <\/span>
\u00c7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 80 y\u0131lda n\u00fcfusunun yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kaybedince, 2100 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kalabal\u0131k \u00fclkesi tahmin edebilece\u011finiz gibi Hindistan olacak. <\/span>
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Peki, o tarihte d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kalabal\u0131k ikinci \u00fclkesi kim olacak biliyor musunuz? Sizi yormadan s\u00f6yleyeyim: Nijerya... Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, 80 sene sonra Nijerya 791 milyona ula\u015facak n\u00fcfusuyla \u00c7in\u2019i geride b\u0131rakacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunyayi-bekleyen-buyuk-degisim","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnyay\u0131 bekleyen b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fim","meta_description":"HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1128,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":1,"name":"HAKAN","surname":"G\u00dcLDA\u011e","email":"uakisik@eronat.com.tr","slug":"hakan-guldag","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600kKPzKvWx8Xpxx9n.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:32.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":22903,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":22804,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00fcnyay\u0131 bekleyen b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fim","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e<\/strong><\/span>
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Elime yeni bir ara\u015ft\u0131rma ge\u00e7ti. <\/span>
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Son birka\u00e7 Eko-Mercek\u2019te geride kalan ve gelmekte olan \u2018d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni\u2019 ile ilgili sohbetimize k\u0131sa bir ara verip bu ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n kimi notlar\u0131n\u0131 sizinle payla\u015fmak istiyorum. <\/span>
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Asl\u0131na bakarsan\u0131z, konumuzdan \u00e7ok da uzakla\u015fm\u0131\u015f say\u0131lmayaca\u011f\u0131z. Zira ara\u015ft\u0131rma, d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusunun \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde nas\u0131l \u015fekillenece\u011fine ili\u015fkin. <\/span>
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Sosyolojinin ve iktisad\u0131n \u00f6nc\u00fclerinden \u0130bn-i Haldun, \u201cCo\u011frafya bir \u00fclkenin kaderidir\u201d demi\u015fti. Nas\u0131l, \u0130bn-i Haldun\u2019un 14. y\u00fczy\u0131ldan bug\u00fcne s\u00fcz\u00fcl\u00fcp gelen bu s\u00f6z\u00fc h\u00e2l\u00e2 ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini koruyorsa, \u2018sosyolojinin babas\u0131\u2019 kabul edilen Aguste Comte\u2019un 19. y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda dikkat \u00e7ekti\u011fi \u201cDemografi bir \u00fclkenin kaderidir\u201d s\u00f6z\u00fc de ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde ge\u00e7erlili\u011fini koruyor.<\/span>
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\u2018B\u00fcy\u00fck resme\u2019 bakmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fan herkesin yolu \u00f6nce demografiden ge\u00e7mek zorunda... Ekonominin geli\u015fme potansiyeli konusundaki her ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve analize de mutlaka n\u00fcfus yap\u0131s\u0131ndan ba\u015flamak gerekiyor. D\u00fcnyay\u0131 ve \u00fclkemizi gelecekte hangi e\u011filimlerin nas\u0131l etkileyece\u011fini do\u011fru kavramak istiyorsak da \u00f6yle... <\/span>
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***<\/span>
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Neyse, laf\u0131 uzatmadan gelelim ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya... <\/span>
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Ara\u015ft\u0131rmay\u0131 ABD\u2019de faaliyet g\u00f6steren Sa\u011fl\u0131k \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fcm Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (IHME) yapm\u0131\u015f. Washington \u00dcniversitesi\u2019ne ba\u011fl\u0131 enstit\u00fcn\u00fcn ba\u015f\u0131nda Profes\u00f6r Christopher J. L. Murray var. D\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda sa\u011fl\u0131k konular\u0131nda uzman bir isim. \u015eu s\u0131ralar yeni tip koronavir\u00fcs\u00fcn sa\u011fl\u0131k ve n\u00fcfus \u00fczerindeki etkilerini ara\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. <\/span>
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Bu yaz\u0131ya konu edece\u011fimiz yeni tamamlad\u0131klar\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rma ise \u2018do\u011fum oranlar\u0131\u2019 ile ilgili...<\/span>
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\u00dcnl\u00fc bilim dergisi The Lancet\u2019de yay\u0131mlanan ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 sonu\u00e7lar \u00e7arp\u0131c\u0131. \u00d6zetle: Do\u011fum oranlar\u0131 t\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n gelece\u011fini etkileyecek h\u0131zda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. 195 \u00fclkenin 183\u2019\u00fcnde do\u011fum oranlar\u0131 \u00fclkenin mevcut n\u00fcfusunun azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak d\u00fczeye indi. <\/span>
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Bu e\u011filim, aynen devam ederse, y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonuna varmadan \u00fclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fcn n\u00fcfusu ciddi \u015fekilde d\u00fc\u015fecek. Bug\u00fcn\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck ve geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerinin n\u00fcfuslar\u0131 yar\u0131ya inecek. Dile kolay! Bu da o \u00fclkeler ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere d\u00fcnya \u00fczerinde \u2018inan\u0131lmaz\u2019 etkiler yaratacak. <\/span>
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Meselenin \u00f6z\u00fc \u015fu: <\/span>
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\u00c7ok de\u011fil, bir insan \u00f6mr\u00fc kadar bir s\u00fcre \u00f6nce, bir kad\u0131n\u0131n do\u011furdu\u011fu ortalama \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131 neredeyse 5\u2019ti. Neredeyse diyorum, \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc \u00e7arp\u0131p, b\u00f6l\u00fcnce rakamlar k\u00fcsuratl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. Mesela 1950 y\u0131l\u0131nda kad\u0131nlar\u0131n do\u011fum oran\u0131 ortalama 4.7 d\u00fczeyindeydi. Yani kad\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na 5\u2019e yak\u0131n \u00e7ocuk d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyordu. \u015eimdi ise 2.4. Yani son 70 y\u0131lda d\u00fcnyada kad\u0131nlar\u0131n do\u011fum oran\u0131, bir ba\u015fka ifadeyle kad\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131 y\u00fczde 95 geriledi!<\/span>
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Burada kritik say\u0131 2.1. Bir kad\u0131n\u0131n do\u011furdu\u011fu ortalama \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131 yani \u2018do\u011furganl\u0131k oran\u0131\u2019 2.1\u2019in alt\u0131na indi\u011finde n\u00fcfus da azalmaya ba\u015fl\u0131yor. <\/span>
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Hesap basit: Bir \u00e7ocuk iki ki\u015fiden oldu\u011funa g\u00f6re, n\u00fcfusun ayn\u0131 kalmas\u0131 i\u00e7in dahi do\u011fum oran\u0131 2 olmal\u0131. <\/span>
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\u201cPeki neden 2.1 kritik oran?\u201d derseniz, hayat\u0131n \u00e7arklar\u0131n\u0131 da dikkate almak gerekiyor da ondan. En geli\u015fmi\u015f sa\u011fl\u0131k sistemine sahip \u00fclkelerde bile baz\u0131 \u00e7ocuklar yeti\u015fkinli\u011fe eri\u015femeden hayatlar\u0131n\u0131 kaybediyor.<\/span>
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T\u00fcm d\u00fcnyada kad\u0131nlar, art\u0131k daha az say\u0131da \u00e7ocuk sahibi olmay\u0131 se\u00e7iyor. Nedenler \u00e7e\u015fitli... Ekonomik zorluklardan tutun da, kad\u0131nlar\u0131n e\u011fitime ve \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya y\u00f6nelmesine dek uzanan pek \u00e7ok neden var. Ama sonu\u00e7ta, bug\u00fcnk\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 devam etti\u011finde bu y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda d\u00fcnya \u00e7ap\u0131nda kad\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen \u00e7ocuk say\u0131s\u0131 1.7\u2019ye kadar d\u00fc\u015fecek. Bu oran, \u2018kritik oran\u2019 olan <\/span>
2.1\u2019in hayli alt\u0131nda. <\/span>
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Gelelim detaylara... Bu geli\u015fmeden en \u00e7ok kim etkilenecek? <\/span>
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Yap\u0131lan hesaplamalar b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n etkilenece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.Senaryoya g\u00f6re, 2064 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu 9.7 milyar ile zirveye ula\u015facak. Ama 2100 y\u0131l\u0131na gelindi\u011finde 8.8 milyara inecek. <\/span>
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Tabii, her \u00fclke i\u00e7in hikaye farkl\u0131 olacak. Mesela Japonya... Bu \u00fclkede n\u00fcfus azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131 bile. Sahip oldu\u011fu topra\u011fa g\u00f6re d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kalabal\u0131k \u00fclkelerinden biri olan Japonya, 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda 128 milyon ile en y\u00fcksek n\u00fcfus d\u00fczeyine eri\u015fti. Yap\u0131lan projeksiyonlar, bu y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda Japonya\u2019n\u0131n n\u00fcfusunun 53 milyona d\u00fc\u015febilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. <\/span>
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\u00dclkelerin \u2018kaderini belirleyecek\u2019 bu b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fim, ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, 23 \u00fclkede n\u00fcfus, y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda yar\u0131dan fazla azalmas\u0131na yol a\u00e7acak. \u00d6rne\u011fin \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n \u015fu s\u0131ralar <\/span>
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61 milyon olan n\u00fcfusu, bir insan \u00f6mr\u00fc kadar bir zaman i\u00e7inde 28 milyona d\u00fc\u015febilir. \u0130spanya ve Portekiz\u2019i de benzer bir durum bekliyor. <\/span>
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Ama n\u00fcfuslar\u0131 \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 80 y\u0131lda yar\u0131dan fazla azalacaklar aras\u0131nda sadece ya\u015fl\u0131 Avrupa \u00fclkeleri yok. Japonya\u2019n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, 23 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda Asya \u00fclkeleri G\u00fcney Kore ve Tayland da var. <\/span>
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K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen bir n\u00fcfusun etkileri neler olabilir? N\u00fcfusun birim ve yap\u0131 olarak de\u011fi\u015fmesi d\u00fcnyay\u0131 nas\u0131l \u015fekillendirecek? \u00c7al\u0131\u015fma ya\u015fam\u0131, vergi gelirleri, sa\u011fl\u0131k hizmetleri ne gibi de\u011fi\u015fimlere u\u011frayacak? <\/span>
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Sorular \u00e7o\u011falt\u0131labilir. Ezc\u00fcmle, d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfusu insanl\u0131\u011f\u0131n gelece\u011fini etkileyecek \u015fekilde de\u011fi\u015fiyor. \u00c7ok de\u011fil, belki \u00e7ocuklar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n, belki torunlar\u0131n\u0131z\u0131n ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fcnya n\u00fcfus yap\u0131s\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan da epey farkl\u0131 bir yer olacak. <\/span>
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Peki, \u00fclkeler k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen n\u00fcfusa haz\u0131r m\u0131? Sadece k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen de\u011fil, ya\u015flanan bir n\u00fcfusa haz\u0131r m\u0131y\u0131z?<\/span>
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Eko-Mercek\u2019te b\u00fcy\u00fck resme bakmaya devam edece\u011fiz... <\/span>
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T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019N\u0130N 2100 N\u00dcFUS PROJEKS\u0130YONU 101 M\u0130LYON<\/strong><\/span>
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\u201cYa T\u00fcrkiye?\u201d diye sordu\u011funuzu duyar gibiyim. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye de n\u00fcfus kaybedece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen \u00fclkeler aras\u0131nda. Ama \u00f6yle \u00e7ok de\u011fil. \u00d6nce 110 milyon civar\u0131na t\u0131rmanaca\u011f\u0131z. Sonra azalaca\u011f\u0131z. Ama her hal\u00fckarda y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda 100 milyonun \u00fczerinde bir n\u00fcfusa sahip olaca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z tahmin ediliyor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmada 2100 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in yap\u0131lan T\u00fcrkiye n\u00fcfus projeksiyonu 101 milyon.<\/span>
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N\u0130JERYA, 80 YIL SONRA \u00c7\u0130N\u2019\u0130 GER\u0130DE BIRAKACAK<\/strong><\/span>
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Bug\u00fcn d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck n\u00fcfusuna sahip \u00fclkesi \u00c7in. Peki, orada nas\u0131l bir geli\u015fme bekleniyor?<\/span>
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Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, \u00c7in\u2019in zirveye 2024 y\u0131l\u0131nda ula\u015fmas\u0131 bekleniyor. \u00c7in\u2019in n\u00fcfusu d\u00f6rt y\u0131l sonra tam 1 milyar 400 milyon olacak. Ard\u0131ndan ini\u015fe ge\u00e7ecek. Dev \u00c7in\u2019in n\u00fcfusu da y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonunda neredeyse yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azalarak 732 milyona inecek. <\/span>
\u00c7in, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 80 y\u0131lda n\u00fcfusunun yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 kaybedince, 2100 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kalabal\u0131k \u00fclkesi tahmin edebilece\u011finiz gibi Hindistan olacak. <\/span>
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Peki, o tarihte d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en kalabal\u0131k ikinci \u00fclkesi kim olacak biliyor musunuz? Sizi yormadan s\u00f6yleyeyim: Nijerya... Ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, 80 sene sonra Nijerya 791 milyona ula\u015facak n\u00fcfusuyla \u00c7in\u2019i geride b\u0131rakacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunyayi-bekleyen-buyuk-degisim","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnyay\u0131 bekleyen b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fim","meta_description":"HAKAN G\u00dcLDA\u011e","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1128,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}