{"status":true,"post":{"id":18408,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:12:59","created_at":"2018-05-06T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:12:59.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":18408,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Normal takvimi 2019 Kas\u0131m olan Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve milletvekilli\u011fi se\u00e7imi, 24 Haziran 2018\u2019de yap\u0131lmak \u00fczere erkene al\u0131nd\u0131. Se\u00e7imlerin erkene al\u0131nmas\u0131nda ekonomik geli\u015fmelerin de etkisi oldu. <\/span>
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede d\u00fcnyada ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki g\u00fcncel geli\u015fmeleri de\u011ferlendirelim:<\/span><\/p>

1 - D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE 2018 B\u00dcY\u00dcME BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130 Y\u00dcKSELD\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2018\u2019e ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellendi. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu IMF, 2018\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 3.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini bekliyor. 2018\u2019de geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.5 ve geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde ise y\u00fczde 4.9 ile ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n da \u00fczerinde bekleniyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler, b\u00fcy\u00fcme konusundaki iyimserli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130yimser beklentiler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki iki risk ise olas\u0131 ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 ve jeopolitik riskler.<\/span><\/p>

2 - DOLAR FA\u0130ZLER\u0130NDE ARTI\u015eLAR S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Dolar faizlerinde y\u00fckselme, 2018\u2019in ilk 4 ay\u0131nda daha kuvvetli hissedilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Ekonomide h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyona ili\u015fkin beklentiler nedeniyle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan 2018\u2019de 4 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu beklenti \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde piyasadaki dolar faizleri de fiilen y\u00fckseldi. 3 ay vadeli LIBOR faiz oranlar\u0131 2017 sonunda y\u00fczde 1.7 iken, nisan ay\u0131 sonunda y\u00fczde 2.4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. <\/span>
ABD 10 y\u0131l vadeli tahvil faizleri nisan ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.0\u2019\u0131 da a\u015ft\u0131, sonra da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gev\u015fedi. Faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fta ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclterek dolar likiditesini azaltmas\u0131 da etkili oldu. Dolar cinsi bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n maliyetleri de kademeli olarak artmaya devam ediyor. <\/span><\/p>

3 - SE\u00c7\u0130MDEN SONRA MAKROEKONOM\u0130K G\u00d6STERGELERDE \u0130Y\u0130LE\u015eT\u0130RMELER GEREK\u0130YOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ekonomide makro g\u00f6stergeler i\u00e7inde d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zla artarken, enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 devam ederken, faizler de art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminde. Di\u011fer yandan d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ile faizlerdeki art\u0131\u015flar \u015firketlerin mali yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bozdu. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u015firketlerden kredi yap\u0131land\u0131rma talepleri art\u0131yor. Bankalar\u0131n da kredi verme olanaklar\u0131 azal\u0131yor. \u0130ktisadi faaliyetlerde ve piyasalardaki \u00f6demelerde ise yeniden s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fan\u0131rken, vadeler giderek uzuyor. Bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde i\u00e7 talep geriledi. Gerileme konut, beyaz e\u015fya, mobilya gibi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l desteklenen alanlarda daha \u00e7ok ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak sekt\u00f6rler, talebin canlanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeniden destek istiyor. <\/span><\/p>

4 - MERKEZ\u0130 B\u00dcT\u00c7E A\u00c7I\u011eINDA ARTI\u015e S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 36.9 artarak 20.4 milyar T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na ula\u015ft\u0131. 2017\u2019de 47 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k veren merkezi b\u00fct\u00e7e, yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. Vergi ve b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirlerindeki reel art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen harcamalardaki art\u0131\u015f daha y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00d6zellikle savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n da i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu cari transfer \u00f6demelerinde y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f, ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in al\u0131nacak yeni \u00f6nlem olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

5 - \u0130LK \u00dc\u00c7 AYDA DI\u015e T\u0130CARET A\u00c7I\u011eI Y\u00dcZDE 64.1 ARTTI; 20.7 M\u0130LYAR DOLAR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2017\u2019de art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimine giren d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu e\u011filim 2018\u2019in ilk 3 ay\u0131nda kuvvetlendi. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 3 ay\u0131nda ihracat y\u00fczde 8.9 artarak 41.2 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ithalat y\u00fczde 22.7 artarak 61.9 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi. D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 3 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 64.2 y\u00fckselerek 20.7 milyar dolar oldu. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f da ithalat\u0131 yava\u015flatm\u0131yor. D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrmesi halinde 2018\u2019de d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 100 milyar dolara yakla\u015facak ve finansman olanaklar\u0131 zorla\u015facak. <\/span><\/p>

6 - T.C. MERKEZ BANKASI YILSONU ENFLASYON BEKLENT\u0130S\u0130N\u0130 YEN\u0130DEN Y\u00dcKSELTT\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131, 2018 y\u0131lsonu enflasyon beklentisini y\u00fczde 8.4\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Ocak Enflasyon Raporu\u2019nda y\u00fczde 7.9 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2018 y\u0131lsonu enflasyon tahmini 0.5 puan art\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Di\u011fer taraftan, para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun kararl\u0131l\u0131kla s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fi bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda 2019 y\u0131lsonu enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 6.5 olarak korundu. Enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak nisan ay\u0131 boyunca faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar da s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Merkez Bankas\u0131 da nisan ay\u0131nda politika faizi yerine kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7 likidite penceresi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 0.75 puan art\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 13.5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. B\u00f6ylece piyasan\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> D\u00fcnyadaki iyile\u015fmeden daha \u00e7ok yararlanmak i\u00e7in se\u00e7im sonras\u0131n\u0131 ekonomi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak kullanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ve-turkiye-ekonomisinde-onemli-gelismeler","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":124,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":18507,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":18408,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Normal takvimi 2019 Kas\u0131m olan Cumhurba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve milletvekilli\u011fi se\u00e7imi, 24 Haziran 2018\u2019de yap\u0131lmak \u00fczere erkene al\u0131nd\u0131. Se\u00e7imlerin erkene al\u0131nmas\u0131nda ekonomik geli\u015fmelerin de etkisi oldu. <\/span>
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede d\u00fcnyada ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki g\u00fcncel geli\u015fmeleri de\u011ferlendirelim:<\/span><\/p>

1 - D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE 2018 B\u00dcY\u00dcME BEKLENT\u0130LER\u0130 Y\u00dcKSELD\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar\u0131n d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2018\u2019e ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc g\u00fcncellendi. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu IMF, 2018\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde y\u00fczde 3.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini bekliyor. 2018\u2019de geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.5 ve geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde ise y\u00fczde 4.9 ile ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n da \u00fczerinde bekleniyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler, b\u00fcy\u00fcme konusundaki iyimserli\u011fi art\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130yimser beklentiler kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131ndaki iki risk ise olas\u0131 ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 ve jeopolitik riskler.<\/span><\/p>

2 - DOLAR FA\u0130ZLER\u0130NDE ARTI\u015eLAR S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Dolar faizlerinde y\u00fckselme, 2018\u2019in ilk 4 ay\u0131nda daha kuvvetli hissedilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Ekonomide h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyona ili\u015fkin beklentiler nedeniyle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan 2018\u2019de 4 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu beklenti \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde piyasadaki dolar faizleri de fiilen y\u00fckseldi. 3 ay vadeli LIBOR faiz oranlar\u0131 2017 sonunda y\u00fczde 1.7 iken, nisan ay\u0131 sonunda y\u00fczde 2.4\u2019e y\u00fckseldi. <\/span>
ABD 10 y\u0131l vadeli tahvil faizleri nisan ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 3.0\u2019\u0131 da a\u015ft\u0131, sonra da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde gev\u015fedi. Faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015fta ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclterek dolar likiditesini azaltmas\u0131 da etkili oldu. Dolar cinsi bor\u00e7lanmalar\u0131n maliyetleri de kademeli olarak artmaya devam ediyor. <\/span><\/p>

3 - SE\u00c7\u0130MDEN SONRA MAKROEKONOM\u0130K G\u00d6STERGELERDE \u0130Y\u0130LE\u015eT\u0130RMELER GEREK\u0130YOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Ekonomide makro g\u00f6stergeler i\u00e7inde d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve cari a\u00e7\u0131k ile b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 h\u0131zla artarken, enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019nda de\u011fer kayb\u0131 bask\u0131s\u0131 devam ederken, faizler de art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminde. Di\u011fer yandan d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131 ile faizlerdeki art\u0131\u015flar \u015firketlerin mali yap\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bozdu. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u015firketlerden kredi yap\u0131land\u0131rma talepleri art\u0131yor. Bankalar\u0131n da kredi verme olanaklar\u0131 azal\u0131yor. \u0130ktisadi faaliyetlerde ve piyasalardaki \u00f6demelerde ise yeniden s\u0131k\u0131\u015fmalar ya\u015fan\u0131rken, vadeler giderek uzuyor. Bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde i\u00e7 talep geriledi. Gerileme konut, beyaz e\u015fya, mobilya gibi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l desteklenen alanlarda daha \u00e7ok ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak sekt\u00f6rler, talebin canlanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in yeniden destek istiyor. <\/span><\/p>

4 - MERKEZ\u0130 B\u00dcT\u00c7E A\u00c7I\u011eINDA ARTI\u015e S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 3 ayl\u0131k d\u00f6neminde b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 36.9 artarak 20.4 milyar T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131\u2019na ula\u015ft\u0131. 2017\u2019de 47 milyar TL a\u00e7\u0131k veren merkezi b\u00fct\u00e7e, yeni y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u00e7\u0131k verdi. Vergi ve b\u00fct\u00e7e gelirlerindeki reel art\u0131\u015fa ra\u011fmen harcamalardaki art\u0131\u015f daha y\u00fcksek ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u00d6zellikle savunma harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n da i\u00e7inde oldu\u011fu cari transfer \u00f6demelerinde y\u00fcksek art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. B\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f, ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in al\u0131nacak yeni \u00f6nlem olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 da s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

5 - \u0130LK \u00dc\u00c7 AYDA DI\u015e T\u0130CARET A\u00c7I\u011eI Y\u00dcZDE 64.1 ARTTI; 20.7 M\u0130LYAR DOLAR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2017\u2019de art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimine giren d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bu e\u011filim 2018\u2019in ilk 3 ay\u0131nda kuvvetlendi. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 3 ay\u0131nda ihracat y\u00fczde 8.9 artarak 41.2 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n ithalat y\u00fczde 22.7 artarak 61.9 milyar dolara y\u00fckseldi. D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 ise ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 3 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 64.2 y\u00fckselerek 20.7 milyar dolar oldu. D\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131ndaki h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f da ithalat\u0131 yava\u015flatm\u0131yor. D\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f e\u011filiminin s\u00fcrmesi halinde 2018\u2019de d\u0131\u015f ticaret a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 100 milyar dolara yakla\u015facak ve finansman olanaklar\u0131 zorla\u015facak. <\/span><\/p>

6 - T.C. MERKEZ BANKASI YILSONU ENFLASYON BEKLENT\u0130S\u0130N\u0130 YEN\u0130DEN Y\u00dcKSELTT\u0130 <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131, 2018 y\u0131lsonu enflasyon beklentisini y\u00fczde 8.4\u2019e y\u00fckseltti. Ocak Enflasyon Raporu\u2019nda y\u00fczde 7.9 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan 2018 y\u0131lsonu enflasyon tahmini 0.5 puan art\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131. Di\u011fer taraftan, para politikas\u0131ndaki s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015fun kararl\u0131l\u0131kla s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclece\u011fi bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm alt\u0131nda 2019 y\u0131lsonu enflasyon tahmini y\u00fczde 6.5 olarak korundu. Enflasyondaki art\u0131\u015fa ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak nisan ay\u0131 boyunca faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015flar da s\u00fcrd\u00fc. Merkez Bankas\u0131 da nisan ay\u0131nda politika faizi yerine kulland\u0131\u011f\u0131 ge\u00e7 likidite penceresi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 0.75 puan art\u0131rarak y\u00fczde 13.5\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. B\u00f6ylece piyasan\u0131n faiz art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimi g\u00fc\u00e7lendi.<\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> D\u00fcnyadaki iyile\u015fmeden daha \u00e7ok yararlanmak i\u00e7in se\u00e7im sonras\u0131n\u0131 ekonomi a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak kullanmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ve-turkiye-ekonomisinde-onemli-gelismeler","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ve T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde \u00f6nemli geli\u015fmeler","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":124,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}