{"status":true,"post":{"id":22250,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:15:40","created_at":"2020-05-28T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:15:40.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":22250,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00fcnya ticaretinde normalle\u015fme nas\u0131l olacak?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 nedeniyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ko\u015fullar i\u00e7inde 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretinde kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lacak hasar giderek ortaya \u00e7\u0131karken, normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecine ili\u015fkin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler de netle\u015fiyor. Salg\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 seyri de bu konularda belirleyici oluyor.<\/span><\/p>

1. Salg\u0131n\u0131n seyri normalle\u015fmede belirleyici olacak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu nedenle \u00f6ncelikle salg\u0131n\u0131n seyrine ili\u015fkin beklentileri ve senaryolar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirelim. D\u00fcnya genelinde salg\u0131n halen devam ediyor. Ancak g\u00fcnl\u00fck yeni vaka say\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor ve bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede salg\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede salg\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya genelinde haziran ay\u0131 sonuna kadar tamamen kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak bu salg\u0131n\u0131n bitti\u011fi anlam\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mayacak. Bu nedenle normalle\u015fme s\u00fcreci yeni normale ge\u00e7i\u015f olarak adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

Yeni normal d\u00f6nemi a\u015f\u0131 bulunana ve d\u00fcnya genelinde uygulanarak Covid-19\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k kazan\u0131lana kadar s\u00fcrecek. Yeni normal i\u00e7inde Covid-19\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemler de s\u00fcrecek. A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bulunmas\u0131 ve d\u00fcnya genelinde uygulanarak korunma sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in takvim, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131na kadar bir d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7eriyor. Yeni normal de bu takvime ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak en az\u0131ndan 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 yaz aylar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p>

2. Normalle\u015fmenin ba\u015f\u0131nda sert daralmalar\u0131 ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131z<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 ve yeni normale ili\u015fkin bu varsay\u0131mlar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.0 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi, d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin de de\u011fer olarak y\u00fczde 20.0 daralmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ekonomide ve ticarette k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ya\u015fanacak olmakla birlikte y\u0131l i\u00e7inde toparlanma olaca\u011f\u0131 da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Nitekim salg\u0131n\u0131n kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 ile \u00fclkeler normalle\u015fme planlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor ve uygulamaya koyuyor.<\/span><\/p>

3. \u0130kinci a\u015famas\u0131nda toparlanma bekleniyor<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu a\u015famada kritik konu, toparlanman\u0131n hangi h\u0131zla ve hangi takvim i\u00e7inde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi oluyor. \u00d6zellikle ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00fcnya mal ve hizmet ticareti i\u00e7in toparlanma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

Mal ve hizmet ticaretinde muhtemelen farkl\u0131 takvimler i\u00e7inde toparlanma olacak. Hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc Covid-19 \u00f6nlemlerinden daha fazla etkilenmeye devam edecek. <\/span>
D\u00fcnya mal ticareti ise 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 20 daralacak. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde daralma y\u00fczde 30 seviyelerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. Y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde mal ticaretinde toparlanma ba\u015flayacak. Ancak yine de ge\u00e7en seneye g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 25 oran\u0131nda bir daralma ya\u015fanmas\u0131 muhtemel. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde ise ticaretteki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yava\u015flayacak. Yine muhtemelen son \u00e7eyrekte mal ticaretinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme y\u00fczde 15\u2019e kadar inebilecek.<\/span><\/p>

4. Yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flayacak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya mal ticareti ilk b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ise 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk veya ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde ge\u00e7ebilecek. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile d\u00fcnya mal ticareti 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 seviyesinin y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131na ancak d\u00f6nebilecek. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda 18.25 trilyon dolar olan d\u00fcnya mal ticareti, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda 14.5 milyar dolar seviyesine kadar inebilecek. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise 16 milyar dolara ula\u015fabilecek.<\/span><\/p>

5. Sanayi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine talebi t\u00fcketicilerin yeni tercihleri belirleyecek<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Di\u011fer sanayi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin ticareti de t\u00fcketicilerin, sekt\u00f6rlerin ve kamunun yeni normal i\u00e7indeki talep \u015fekillenmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak geli\u015fme g\u00f6sterecek. \u00d6ncelikle kamu kesimleri krize kar\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131klar\u0131 destek paketleri nedeniyle kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 bu alana y\u00f6nlendirecek. Sa\u011fl\u0131k ve ilgili alanlar hari\u00e7 di\u011fer kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda ve harcamalar\u0131nda k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lara gidilecek. T\u00fcketiciler ise i\u015f ve gelir kay\u0131plar\u0131 ve yeni normal ko\u015fullar\u0131 i\u00e7inde \u00f6nemli bir s\u00fcre zorunlu harcamalar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tasarruf e\u011filimi i\u00e7inde kalacak. Sekt\u00f6rler de t\u00fcketicilerin bu e\u011filimine paralel olarak kademeli bir talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6sterecek. T\u00fcm bu beklentiler bir arada de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde sanayi mallar\u0131 ticaretinde de 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar yay\u0131lacak kademeli bir toparlanma olacak.<\/span><\/p>

6. Firmalar yeni normale haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z 2021 sonuna kadar s\u00fcrmesi muhtemel kademeli toparlanma beklentileri \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yeni \u00fcretim, tedarik, istihdam, ihracat ve finansman planlar\u0131 haz\u0131rlamal\u0131. Firmalar ayr\u0131ca k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilecekleri yeni ba\u015fa ba\u015f noktalar\u0131na uyum sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in de mali iyile\u015ftirmeler yapmal\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ticaretinde-normallesme-nasil-olacak","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ticaretinde normalle\u015fme nas\u0131l olacak?","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1066,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":22349,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":22250,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00fcnya ticaretinde normalle\u015fme nas\u0131l olacak?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel<\/strong><\/span>
<\/p>

Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 nedeniyle ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan ko\u015fullar i\u00e7inde 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretinde kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131lacak hasar giderek ortaya \u00e7\u0131karken, normalle\u015fme s\u00fcrecine ili\u015fkin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler de netle\u015fiyor. Salg\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 seyri de bu konularda belirleyici oluyor.<\/span><\/p>

1. Salg\u0131n\u0131n seyri normalle\u015fmede belirleyici olacak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu nedenle \u00f6ncelikle salg\u0131n\u0131n seyrine ili\u015fkin beklentileri ve senaryolar\u0131 de\u011ferlendirelim. D\u00fcnya genelinde salg\u0131n halen devam ediyor. Ancak g\u00fcnl\u00fck yeni vaka say\u0131s\u0131 azal\u0131yor ve bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkede salg\u0131n\u0131n yay\u0131lmas\u0131 kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede salg\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnya genelinde haziran ay\u0131 sonuna kadar tamamen kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131naca\u011f\u0131 bekleniyor. Ancak bu salg\u0131n\u0131n bitti\u011fi anlam\u0131n\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131mayacak. Bu nedenle normalle\u015fme s\u00fcreci yeni normale ge\u00e7i\u015f olarak adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

Yeni normal d\u00f6nemi a\u015f\u0131 bulunana ve d\u00fcnya genelinde uygulanarak Covid-19\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131k kazan\u0131lana kadar s\u00fcrecek. Yeni normal i\u00e7inde Covid-19\u2019a kar\u015f\u0131 al\u0131nan \u00f6nlemler de s\u00fcrecek. A\u015f\u0131n\u0131n bulunmas\u0131 ve d\u00fcnya genelinde uygulanarak korunma sa\u011flanmas\u0131 i\u00e7in takvim, 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131na kadar bir d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7eriyor. Yeni normal de bu takvime ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak en az\u0131ndan 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 yaz aylar\u0131na kadar s\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p>

2. Normalle\u015fmenin ba\u015f\u0131nda sert daralmalar\u0131 ya\u015fayaca\u011f\u0131z<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Covid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131 ve yeni normale ili\u015fkin bu varsay\u0131mlar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.0 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi, d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin de de\u011fer olarak y\u00fczde 20.0 daralmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Ekonomide ve ticarette k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ya\u015fanacak olmakla birlikte y\u0131l i\u00e7inde toparlanma olaca\u011f\u0131 da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Nitekim salg\u0131n\u0131n kontrol alt\u0131na al\u0131nmas\u0131 ile \u00fclkeler normalle\u015fme planlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor ve uygulamaya koyuyor.<\/span><\/p>

3. \u0130kinci a\u015famas\u0131nda toparlanma bekleniyor<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Bu a\u015famada kritik konu, toparlanman\u0131n hangi h\u0131zla ve hangi takvim i\u00e7inde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi oluyor. \u00d6zellikle ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00fcnya mal ve hizmet ticareti i\u00e7in toparlanma \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri \u00f6nem kazan\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

Mal ve hizmet ticaretinde muhtemelen farkl\u0131 takvimler i\u00e7inde toparlanma olacak. Hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc Covid-19 \u00f6nlemlerinden daha fazla etkilenmeye devam edecek. <\/span>
D\u00fcnya mal ticareti ise 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 20 daralacak. Y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde daralma y\u00fczde 30 seviyelerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. Y\u0131l\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde mal ticaretinde toparlanma ba\u015flayacak. Ancak yine de ge\u00e7en seneye g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 25 oran\u0131nda bir daralma ya\u015fanmas\u0131 muhtemel. Y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde ise ticaretteki k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yava\u015flayacak. Yine muhtemelen son \u00e7eyrekte mal ticaretinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme y\u00fczde 15\u2019e kadar inebilecek.<\/span><\/p>

4. Yeniden b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda ba\u015flayacak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya mal ticareti ilk b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ise 2021 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk veya ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde ge\u00e7ebilecek. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile d\u00fcnya mal ticareti 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 seviyesinin y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131na ancak d\u00f6nebilecek. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda 18.25 trilyon dolar olan d\u00fcnya mal ticareti, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131nda 14.5 milyar dolar seviyesine kadar inebilecek. 2021 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise 16 milyar dolara ula\u015fabilecek.<\/span><\/p>

5. Sanayi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerine talebi t\u00fcketicilerin yeni tercihleri belirleyecek<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Di\u011fer sanayi \u00fcr\u00fcnlerinin ticareti de t\u00fcketicilerin, sekt\u00f6rlerin ve kamunun yeni normal i\u00e7indeki talep \u015fekillenmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak geli\u015fme g\u00f6sterecek. \u00d6ncelikle kamu kesimleri krize kar\u015f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131klar\u0131 destek paketleri nedeniyle kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 bu alana y\u00f6nlendirecek. Sa\u011fl\u0131k ve ilgili alanlar hari\u00e7 di\u011fer kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda ve harcamalar\u0131nda k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131lara gidilecek. T\u00fcketiciler ise i\u015f ve gelir kay\u0131plar\u0131 ve yeni normal ko\u015fullar\u0131 i\u00e7inde \u00f6nemli bir s\u00fcre zorunlu harcamalar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tasarruf e\u011filimi i\u00e7inde kalacak. Sekt\u00f6rler de t\u00fcketicilerin bu e\u011filimine paralel olarak kademeli bir talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 g\u00f6sterecek. T\u00fcm bu beklentiler bir arada de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde sanayi mallar\u0131 ticaretinde de 2021 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar yay\u0131lacak kademeli bir toparlanma olacak.<\/span><\/p>

6. Firmalar yeni normale haz\u0131rlanmal\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u0130hracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131z 2021 sonuna kadar s\u00fcrmesi muhtemel kademeli toparlanma beklentileri \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde yeni \u00fcretim, tedarik, istihdam, ihracat ve finansman planlar\u0131 haz\u0131rlamal\u0131. Firmalar ayr\u0131ca k\u00e2rl\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilecekleri yeni ba\u015fa ba\u015f noktalar\u0131na uyum sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in de mali iyile\u015ftirmeler yapmal\u0131.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ticaretinde-normallesme-nasil-olacak","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ticaretinde normalle\u015fme nas\u0131l olacak?","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1066,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}