{"status":true,"post":{"id":13768,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:31:27","created_at":"2016-05-15T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:31:27.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":13768,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00fcnya ticaretinde geli\u015fmeler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretindeki geli\u015fmeler ihracat\u0131m\u0131z \u00fczerinde ana belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor. K\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 yeni normal aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken d\u00fcnya ekonomisi giderek daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcyor, d\u00fcnya mal ticareti ise k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>1. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 G\u0130DEREK DAHA YAVA\u015e B\u00dcY\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisi k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 2010 ve 2011 y\u0131llar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.1 ve y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fckten sonra k\u00fcresel krize yol a\u00e7an yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclememesi nedeniyle giderek daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2011-2015 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.5 oldu. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda da yine y\u00fczde 2.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposu t\u00fcm desteklere ra\u011fmen y\u0131llar sonra ancak y\u00fczde 1.9\u2019a ula\u015fabildi. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde ise ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zla yava\u015fl\u0131yor. 2004-2007 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2010 ve 2011 y\u0131lar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7.4 ve y\u00fczde 6.3 olduktan sonra izleyen y\u0131llarda h\u0131zla yava\u015fl\u0131yor. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 4.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde d\u00fcnya geliri 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda 72.7 trilyon dolar olurken 4 y\u0131l sonra 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda 73.2 trilyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. D\u00fcnya geliri de son 5 y\u0131ld\u0131r dura\u011fanla\u015ft\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2. D\u00dcNYA MAL T\u0130CARET\u0130 TALEB\u0130 ZAYIFLIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya mal ticareti de giderek dura\u011fanla\u015f\u0131yor. Mal ticaretinde fiyat de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri etkili oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in miktar baz\u0131nda geli\u015fmeler daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir g\u00f6sterge oluyor. D\u00fcnya mal ticareti miktar baz\u0131nda 2003-2007 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7.4 geni\u015flemi\u015fti. Kriz ile birlikte 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 12 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra d\u00fcnya mal ticareti miktar baz\u0131nda 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda tepki olarak y\u00fczde 14.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2012-2015 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ise d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zla yava\u015flad\u0131 ve ortalama y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019e indi. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen mal ticaretinin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda da miktar baz\u0131nda yine y\u00fczde 2.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>3. D\u00dcNYA MAL T\u0130CARET\u0130 DE\u011eER BAZINDA K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcL\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya mal ticareti de\u011fer baz\u0131nda ise gerilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda 15.8 trilyon dolar ile rekor k\u0131ran d\u00fcnya mal ticareti k\u00fcresel kriz ile k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeniden 17.9 trilyon dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin de\u011fer baz\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131 ve 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda ancak 18.5 trilyon dolara eri\u015fti. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10.9 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ile d\u00fcnya mal ticareti 16.5 trilyon dolara indi. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin 16.1 trilyon dolara gerilemesi bekleniyor. Nitekim y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticareti \u015fimdiden y\u00fczde 9 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen d\u00fcnya mal ticareti ihracatta t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerin daha az gelir elde etmelerine ve rekabetin daha da keskinle\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>4.D\u00dcNYA GEL\u0130R\u0130 \u0130LE MAL TALEB\u0130 ELAST\u0130K\u0130YET\u0130 ZAYIFLIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya geliri ile mal talebi aras\u0131ndaki elastikiyet de azal\u0131yor. 2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin d\u00fcnya gelirine oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 25.3\u2019e kadar ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 20.7\u2019ye inmi\u015f, ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zla toparlanarak 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeniden y\u00fczde 24.6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak daha sonra bu oran gerilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 21.5\u2019e kadar gerileyen oran\u0131n 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 21.8\u2019e inmesi bekleniyor. D\u00fcnya geliri artarken giderek daha az mal talep edilir hale geldi. Yani gelir talep elastikiyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Korunma \u00f6nlemlerinden b\u00f6lgeselle\u015fmeye, ekonomik yava\u015flamadan yerli sanayiye y\u00f6nelmeye kadar bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fme mal talebini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>5. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 VE T\u0130CARET\u0130NDEK\u0130 BU E\u011e\u0130L\u0130MLER ORTA VADEDE S\u00dcREB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisi ile ticaretindeki bu e\u011filimlerin orta vadede s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. K\u00fcresel ekonomide yap\u0131sal sorunlar \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeden ve sadece Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n parasal geni\u015flemelerine ve \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, negatif, eksi faizlerine bel ba\u011flayarak b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinamikleri h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lamayacak. Bu geli\u015fmeler ister istemez T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve ihracat\u0131n\u0131 da olumsuz etkilemeye devam edecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> D\u00fcnyadaki geli\u015fmeleri yak\u0131ndan izlemeli ve daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i hedeflere y\u00f6nelmeliyiz.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ticaretinde-gelismeler","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ticaretinde geli\u015fmeler","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":146,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":13867,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":13768,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00fcnya ticaretinde geli\u015fmeler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretindeki geli\u015fmeler ihracat\u0131m\u0131z \u00fczerinde ana belirleyici olmaya devam ediyor. K\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 yeni normal aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131 s\u00fcrerken d\u00fcnya ekonomisi giderek daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcyor, d\u00fcnya mal ticareti ise k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>1. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 G\u0130DEREK DAHA YAVA\u015e B\u00dcY\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisi k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 2010 ve 2011 y\u0131llar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4.1 ve y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fckten sonra k\u00fcresel krize yol a\u00e7an yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclememesi nedeniyle giderek daha yava\u015f b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2011-2015 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ortalama b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.5 oldu. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda da yine y\u00fczde 2.5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposu t\u00fcm desteklere ra\u011fmen y\u0131llar sonra ancak y\u00fczde 1.9\u2019a ula\u015fabildi. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde ise ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zla yava\u015fl\u0131yor. 2004-2007 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2010 ve 2011 y\u0131lar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7.4 ve y\u00fczde 6.3 olduktan sonra izleyen y\u0131llarda h\u0131zla yava\u015fl\u0131yor. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda da y\u00fczde 4.1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekleniyor. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde d\u00fcnya geliri 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda 72.7 trilyon dolar olurken 4 y\u0131l sonra 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda 73.2 trilyon dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. D\u00fcnya geliri de son 5 y\u0131ld\u0131r dura\u011fanla\u015ft\u0131.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2. D\u00dcNYA MAL T\u0130CARET\u0130 TALEB\u0130 ZAYIFLIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya mal ticareti de giderek dura\u011fanla\u015f\u0131yor. Mal ticaretinde fiyat de\u011fi\u015fiklikleri etkili oldu\u011fu i\u00e7in miktar baz\u0131nda geli\u015fmeler daha sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir g\u00f6sterge oluyor. D\u00fcnya mal ticareti miktar baz\u0131nda 2003-2007 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda y\u00fczde 7.4 geni\u015flemi\u015fti. Kriz ile birlikte 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 12 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra d\u00fcnya mal ticareti miktar baz\u0131nda 2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda tepki olarak y\u00fczde 14.9 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2012-2015 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda ise d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131zla yava\u015flad\u0131 ve ortalama y\u00fczde 2.5\u2019e indi. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 2.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen mal ticaretinin 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda da miktar baz\u0131nda yine y\u00fczde 2.8 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi bekleniyor. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>3. D\u00dcNYA MAL T\u0130CARET\u0130 DE\u011eER BAZINDA K\u00dc\u00c7\u00dcL\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya mal ticareti de\u011fer baz\u0131nda ise gerilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2008 y\u0131l\u0131nda 15.8 trilyon dolar ile rekor k\u0131ran d\u00fcnya mal ticareti k\u00fcresel kriz ile k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fckten sonra 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeniden 17.9 trilyon dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Ard\u0131ndan d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin de\u011fer baz\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131 ve 2014 y\u0131l\u0131nda ancak 18.5 trilyon dolara eri\u015fti. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 10.9 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ile d\u00fcnya mal ticareti 16.5 trilyon dolara indi. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin 16.1 trilyon dolara gerilemesi bekleniyor. Nitekim y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00fc\u00e7 ay\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticareti \u015fimdiden y\u00fczde 9 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclen d\u00fcnya mal ticareti ihracatta t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerin daha az gelir elde etmelerine ve rekabetin daha da keskinle\u015fmesine yol a\u00e7\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>4.D\u00dcNYA GEL\u0130R\u0130 \u0130LE MAL TALEB\u0130 ELAST\u0130K\u0130YET\u0130 ZAYIFLIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya geliri ile mal talebi aras\u0131ndaki elastikiyet de azal\u0131yor. 2007 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin d\u00fcnya gelirine oran\u0131 y\u00fczde 25.3\u2019e kadar ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra 2009 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 20.7\u2019ye inmi\u015f, ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zla toparlanarak 2011 y\u0131l\u0131nda yeniden y\u00fczde 24.6\u2019ya \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak daha sonra bu oran gerilemeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 21.5\u2019e kadar gerileyen oran\u0131n 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 21.8\u2019e inmesi bekleniyor. D\u00fcnya geliri artarken giderek daha az mal talep edilir hale geldi. Yani gelir talep elastikiyeti d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Korunma \u00f6nlemlerinden b\u00f6lgeselle\u015fmeye, ekonomik yava\u015flamadan yerli sanayiye y\u00f6nelmeye kadar bir\u00e7ok geli\u015fme mal talebini s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>5. D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130 VE T\u0130CARET\u0130NDEK\u0130 BU E\u011e\u0130L\u0130MLER ORTA VADEDE S\u00dcREB\u0130L\u0130R<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisi ile ticaretindeki bu e\u011filimlerin orta vadede s\u00fcrmesini bekliyoruz. K\u00fcresel ekonomide yap\u0131sal sorunlar \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fclmeden ve sadece Merkez Bankalar\u0131n\u0131n parasal geni\u015flemelerine ve \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, negatif, eksi faizlerine bel ba\u011flayarak b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinamikleri h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lamayacak. Bu geli\u015fmeler ister istemez T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ve ihracat\u0131n\u0131 da olumsuz etkilemeye devam edecek.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> D\u00fcnyadaki geli\u015fmeleri yak\u0131ndan izlemeli ve daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i hedeflere y\u00f6nelmeliyiz.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ticaretinde-gelismeler","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ticaretinde geli\u015fmeler","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":146,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}