{"status":true,"post":{"id":19462,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:36:36","created_at":"2018-11-25T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:36:36.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":19462,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flama i\u015faretleri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

D\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2018 y\u0131l\u0131na iyimser beklentilerle girmi\u015fti. Hem ekonomide hem de ticarette b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksekti. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelere bakacak olursak d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ilk ve ikinci \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 3.4 ve 3.3\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Mal ticaretinde ise y\u0131l\u0131n ilk alt\u0131 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 12\u2019lik bir art\u0131\u015f oldu. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi beklendi\u011fi gibi olduk\u00e7a iyi bir performans g\u00f6sterdi. <\/span>
Ancak y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren yava\u015flama i\u015faretleri ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span>
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde bir soluklanma m\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131yor, yoksa kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yava\u015flamaya m\u0131 gidiyoruz sorusu sorulmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span>
Bu sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 bulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

1. ABD\u2019DE \u0130\u015eLER \u0130Y\u0130, ANCAK TRUMP POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI D\u00dcNYAYI OLUMSUZ ETK\u0130L\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde soluklanma m\u0131 yoksa yava\u015flama m\u0131 sorusuna cevap aran\u0131rken ABD\u2019de ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler olumlu geli\u015fmeye devam ediyor. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte de y\u00fczde 3.0\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. \u0130\u015fsizlik y\u00fczde 3.7 ile do\u011fal i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n da alt\u0131nda. Sanayi \u00fcretiminde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed bu ko\u015fullarda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor. Trump politikalar\u0131 \u201c\u00f6nce Amerika\u201d slogan\u0131 alt\u0131nda ABD ekonomisine ivme kazand\u0131rm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Ancak d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 bu politikalardan olumsuz etkileniyor.<\/span><\/p>

2. ABD\u2019N\u0130N YAPTIRIMLARI \u00c7\u0130N\u2019DE YAVA\u015eLAMAYA YOL A\u00c7IYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren uygulamaya koydu\u011fu ekonomi politikalar\u0131 ile bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecine girmi\u015fti. \u0130hracata ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlara dayal\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 hedeflenmi\u015fti. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00c7in, y\u00fczde 10-12 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini y\u00fczde 6-7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7ekti. \u00c7in, orta-uzun vadede y\u00fczde 6-7 aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek istiyor. Ancak ABD\u2019nin uygulamaya koydu\u011fu korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemleri ile \u00c7in\u2019de yava\u015flama h\u0131zlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Sanayi \u00fcretimini \u00f6l\u00e7en PMI verisi duraklamaya i\u015faret ediyor. \u00c7in para birimi Yuan yava\u015flama endi\u015fesi ile de\u011fer kaybediyor. \u00c7in\u2019deki yava\u015flama Asya-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesine de yay\u0131labilecek. \u00c7in, ABD\u2019nin korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemlerinin ekonomisinde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz etkileri azaltmak i\u00e7in yeni destek \u00f6nlemleri hayata ge\u00e7iriyor.<\/span><\/p>

3. AVRUPA B\u0130RL\u0130\u011e\u0130\u2019NDE TOPARLANMA YAVA\u015eLIYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde toparlanma ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren h\u0131z kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 3\u2019lere yakla\u015farak k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 zirve noktalar\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak 2018 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrekte AB ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme kademeli olarak azal\u0131yor. 2018 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 1.7\u2019ye kadar geriledi. Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde Brexit, \u0130talya, g\u00f6\u00e7menler gibi sorunlar ekonomiyi olumsuz etkiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca Avrupa Birli\u011fi ekonomisi de daha \u00e7ok ihracata dayal\u0131 olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcyor ve ABD\u2019nin korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemlerinin olumsuz etkileri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

4. OECD \u00d6NC\u00dc G\u00d6STERGELER ENDEKS\u0130 DE YAVA\u015eLAMAYA \u0130\u015eARET ED\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nceden tahmin eden \u00f6nemli bir veri OECD \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeleridir. OECD\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeleri nisan ay\u0131nda zirveye ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc geli\u015fiyor. \u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. K\u00fcresel sanayi PMI endeksi de ayn\u0131 yava\u015flamay\u0131 k\u00fcresel sanayi i\u00e7in g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p>

5. D\u00dcNYA T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE YAVA\u015eLAMA SINIRLI <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve sanayinde y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda bir yava\u015flama ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Bu yava\u015flama bir ekonomik kriz veya durgunluk g\u00f6stergesi de\u011fildir. Ancak d\u00fcnya b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposu ivme kaybediyor. Buna da ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemleri yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. <\/span>
D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde ise ayl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler ilk kez eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6.4 ile bu y\u0131l tek haneli rakama indi ve en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/span>
2017 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretinde h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/span>
Ancak t\u00fcm g\u00f6stergeler 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerin daha yava\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. <\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde toparlanma i\u00e7in ihracat hayati \u00f6nemdeyken, d\u00fcnyadaki yava\u015flama kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ekonomisinde-yavaslama-isaretleri","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flama i\u015faretleri","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":160,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":19561,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":19462,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flama i\u015faretleri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

D\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2018 y\u0131l\u0131na iyimser beklentilerle girmi\u015fti. Hem ekonomide hem de ticarette b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri olduk\u00e7a y\u00fcksekti. Ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmelere bakacak olursak d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ilk ve ikinci \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 3.4 ve 3.3\u2019l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Mal ticaretinde ise y\u0131l\u0131n ilk alt\u0131 ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 12\u2019lik bir art\u0131\u015f oldu. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi beklendi\u011fi gibi olduk\u00e7a iyi bir performans g\u00f6sterdi. <\/span>
Ancak y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren yava\u015flama i\u015faretleri ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span>
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde bir soluklanma m\u0131 ya\u015fan\u0131yor, yoksa kal\u0131c\u0131 bir yava\u015flamaya m\u0131 gidiyoruz sorusu sorulmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. <\/span>
Bu sorunun yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 bulmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fal\u0131m.<\/span><\/p>

1. ABD\u2019DE \u0130\u015eLER \u0130Y\u0130, ANCAK TRUMP POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI D\u00dcNYAYI OLUMSUZ ETK\u0130L\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde soluklanma m\u0131 yoksa yava\u015flama m\u0131 sorusuna cevap aran\u0131rken ABD\u2019de ekonomik g\u00f6stergeler olumlu geli\u015fmeye devam ediyor. Ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6rd\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte de y\u00fczde 3.0\u2019\u00fcn \u00fczerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fiyor. \u0130\u015fsizlik y\u00fczde 3.7 ile do\u011fal i\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n da alt\u0131nda. Sanayi \u00fcretiminde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc e\u011filim s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed bu ko\u015fullarda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor ve dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc koruyor. Trump politikalar\u0131 \u201c\u00f6nce Amerika\u201d slogan\u0131 alt\u0131nda ABD ekonomisine ivme kazand\u0131rm\u0131\u015f g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor. Ancak d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 bu politikalardan olumsuz etkileniyor.<\/span><\/p>

2. ABD\u2019N\u0130N YAPTIRIMLARI \u00c7\u0130N\u2019DE YAVA\u015eLAMAYA YOL A\u00c7IYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in, 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren uygulamaya koydu\u011fu ekonomi politikalar\u0131 ile bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm s\u00fcrecine girmi\u015fti. \u0130hracata ve yat\u0131r\u0131mlara dayal\u0131 h\u0131zl\u0131 ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin yava\u015flat\u0131lmas\u0131 hedeflenmi\u015fti. Buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak \u00c7in, y\u00fczde 10-12 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini y\u00fczde 6-7 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7ekti. \u00c7in, orta-uzun vadede y\u00fczde 6-7 aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek istiyor. Ancak ABD\u2019nin uygulamaya koydu\u011fu korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemleri ile \u00c7in\u2019de yava\u015flama h\u0131zlanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Sanayi \u00fcretimini \u00f6l\u00e7en PMI verisi duraklamaya i\u015faret ediyor. \u00c7in para birimi Yuan yava\u015flama endi\u015fesi ile de\u011fer kaybediyor. \u00c7in\u2019deki yava\u015flama Asya-Pasifik b\u00f6lgesine de yay\u0131labilecek. \u00c7in, ABD\u2019nin korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemlerinin ekonomisinde yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 olumsuz etkileri azaltmak i\u00e7in yeni destek \u00f6nlemleri hayata ge\u00e7iriyor.<\/span><\/p>

3. AVRUPA B\u0130RL\u0130\u011e\u0130\u2019NDE TOPARLANMA YAVA\u015eLIYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde toparlanma ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren h\u0131z kazanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda ise ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 3\u2019lere yakla\u015farak k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 zirve noktalar\u0131na ula\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ancak 2018 y\u0131l\u0131ndaki \u00fc\u00e7 \u00e7eyrekte AB ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme kademeli olarak azal\u0131yor. 2018 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 1.7\u2019ye kadar geriledi. Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nde Brexit, \u0130talya, g\u00f6\u00e7menler gibi sorunlar ekonomiyi olumsuz etkiliyor. Ayr\u0131ca Avrupa Birli\u011fi ekonomisi de daha \u00e7ok ihracata dayal\u0131 olarak b\u00fcy\u00fcyor ve ABD\u2019nin korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemlerinin olumsuz etkileri g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

4. OECD \u00d6NC\u00dc G\u00d6STERGELER ENDEKS\u0130 DE YAVA\u015eLAMAYA \u0130\u015eARET ED\u0130YOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi \u00f6nceden tahmin eden \u00f6nemli bir veri OECD \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeleridir. OECD\u2019nin \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeleri nisan ay\u0131nda zirveye ula\u015ft\u0131ktan sonra a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc geli\u015fiyor. \u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler b\u00fcy\u00fcmede yava\u015flamaya i\u015faret etmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. K\u00fcresel sanayi PMI endeksi de ayn\u0131 yava\u015flamay\u0131 k\u00fcresel sanayi i\u00e7in g\u00f6steriyor.<\/span><\/p>

5. D\u00dcNYA T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE YAVA\u015eLAMA SINIRLI <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve sanayinde y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda bir yava\u015flama ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Bu yava\u015flama bir ekonomik kriz veya durgunluk g\u00f6stergesi de\u011fildir. Ancak d\u00fcnya b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposu ivme kaybediyor. Buna da ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131k \u00f6nlemleri yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. <\/span>
D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde ise ayl\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler ilk kez eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda y\u00fczde 6.4 ile bu y\u0131l tek haneli rakama indi ve en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck ayl\u0131k art\u0131\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. D\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/span>
2017 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretinde h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/span>
Ancak t\u00fcm g\u00f6stergeler 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerin daha yava\u015f ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fine i\u015faret ediyor. <\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde toparlanma i\u00e7in ihracat hayati \u00f6nemdeyken, d\u00fcnyadaki yava\u015flama kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda haz\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ekonomisinde-yavaslama-isaretleri","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yava\u015flama i\u015faretleri","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":160,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}