{"status":true,"post":{"id":20169,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:48:50","created_at":"2019-04-07T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:48:50.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":20169,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde endi\u015feler art\u0131yor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

D\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2017 ile 2018 ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 en iyi d\u00f6nem olarak ge\u00e7irdi. Ancak 2018\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren iyile\u015fme ivme kaybetmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2019\u2019un ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi de geride kalm\u0131\u015fken, d\u00fcnya ekonomisine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Endi\u015felerin nedenlerini ve olas\u0131 beklentileri payla\u015fal\u0131m:<\/span><\/p>

1 - ABD-\u00c7\u0130N T\u0130CARET M\u00dcZAKERELER\u0130 S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR; S\u00dcRE\u00c7 UZADIK\u00c7A D\u00dcNYADA YAVA\u015eLAMA END\u0130\u015eES\u0130 ARTIYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019\u2019da d\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00f6n\u00fcnde en \u00f6nemli risk olarak ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 bulunuyor. Her iki \u00fclke ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131na son vermek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir m\u00fczakere s\u00fcreci ya\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler nisan ay\u0131na da sarkt\u0131. \u015eu ana kadarki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde baz\u0131 ilerlemeler kaydedilmi\u015f olmakla birlikte hen\u00fcz tam bir uzla\u015fmaya yakla\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca m\u00fczakerelerin ne zaman sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131 da halen belirsiz. Ticaret m\u00fczakerelerinde ABD ile \u00c7in anla\u015famazlar ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 olarak yeni g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri konulmaya ba\u015flan\u0131rsa d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde daha kuvvetli bir yava\u015flama ya\u015fanabilecek. Ayr\u0131ca m\u00fczakerelerin uzamas\u0131 da belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin bir resesyona girmesinden endi\u015fe edilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Bir\u00e7ok uluslararas\u0131 kurum bu alanda uyar\u0131lar yap\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

2 - B\u00dcY\u00dcK BR\u0130TANYA \u0130LE AB ARASINDA AYRILIK BEL\u0130RS\u0130ZL\u0130\u011e\u0130 HALEN S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya ile AB aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131l\u0131k s\u00fcreci belirsizli\u011fini koruyor. AB B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya\u2019n\u0131n 29 Mart olan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f tarihini 12 Nisan\u2019a kadar uzatt\u0131. Ancak B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya\u2019da parlamento ve h\u00fck\u00fcmet \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f \u015fekli \u00fczerinde anla\u015fam\u0131yor. Muhtemelen B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya, AB\u2019den s\u00fcrenin yeniden uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 isteyecek. Brexit belirsizli\u011fi AB ekonomisinin ve Euro\u2019nun da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu zay\u0131flama, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de yava\u015flama anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/span><\/p>

3 - D\u00dcNYA T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE B\u00dcY\u00dcME TAHM\u0130N\u0130 D\u00dc\u015eT\u00dc<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda devam eden ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 ve ekonomilerdeki yava\u015flama nedeniyle 2019\u2019a ili\u015fkin k\u00fcresel ticarette b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini 3 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indirdi. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, 2018\u2019de miktar olarak y\u00fczde 3.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin 2019\u2019da y\u00fczde 2.6 artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. B\u00f6ylece D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, Ekim 2018\u2019de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini 1.1 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. <\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na ticarette ek g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerde yava\u015flama, finansal piyasalardaki volatilite ve geli\u015fmi\u015f piyasalarda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan parasal ko\u015fullar\u0131n ticaret \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131 neden olarak g\u00f6sterdi. <\/span><\/p>

4 - ABD VE AVRUPA MERKEZ BANKASI PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARINDA KESK\u0130N D\u00d6N\u00dc\u015e <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomide artan riskler ve ekonomilerdeki yava\u015flamalar nedeniyle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 para politikalar\u0131nda keskin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Daha \u00f6nce 2019\u2019da en az 2-3 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmesi beklenen Fed mart itibariyle 2019\u2019da bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmesi de eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda yar\u0131da kesilecek. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 da 2019\u2019a bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi ile girdi. Ancak banka mevcut artan yava\u015flama riskleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 en erken 2020 eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ertelerken 2019 eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda bankalara y\u00f6nelik yeni bir kredi program\u0131 ba\u015flatma karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Her iki banka da para politikalar\u0131nda ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemeye d\u00f6nd\u00fc. <\/span><\/p>

5 - EURO\/DOLAR PAR\u0130TES\u0130 GER\u0130L\u0130YOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Avrupa Birli\u011fi ekonomisinde yava\u015flama, Brexit belirsizli\u011fi ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeni kredi program\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irme plan\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Euro zay\u0131flamaya devam ediyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Euro-dolar paritesi de geriliyor. Parite 2018 nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Nisan ba\u015f\u0131nda parite 1.12 alt\u0131na da indi. Euro zay\u0131f kalmaya devam edecek. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ise art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Muhtemelen ABD 5 May\u0131s\u2019ta sona erecek \u0130ran petrol\u00fc ile ilgili muafiyetleri uzatmayacak. Bu nedenle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimine girmi\u015f bulunuyor.<\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> D\u00fcnyada endi\u015feler artarken yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 ekonomiye d\u00f6nelim ve gerekli reformlar\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irelim.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ekonomisinde-endiseler-artiyor","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde endi\u015feler art\u0131yor","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":601,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":20268,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":20169,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde endi\u015feler art\u0131yor","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

D\u00fcnya ekonomisi 2017 ile 2018 ilk yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 en iyi d\u00f6nem olarak ge\u00e7irdi. Ancak 2018\u2019in ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren iyile\u015fme ivme kaybetmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. 2019\u2019un ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fi de geride kalm\u0131\u015fken, d\u00fcnya ekonomisine ili\u015fkin endi\u015feler artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Endi\u015felerin nedenlerini ve olas\u0131 beklentileri payla\u015fal\u0131m:<\/span><\/p>

1 - ABD-\u00c7\u0130N T\u0130CARET M\u00dcZAKERELER\u0130 S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR; S\u00dcRE\u00c7 UZADIK\u00c7A D\u00dcNYADA YAVA\u015eLAMA END\u0130\u015eES\u0130 ARTIYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019\u2019da d\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00f6n\u00fcnde en \u00f6nemli risk olarak ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131ndaki ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 bulunuyor. Her iki \u00fclke ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131na son vermek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir m\u00fczakere s\u00fcreci ya\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmeler nisan ay\u0131na da sarkt\u0131. \u015eu ana kadarki g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerde baz\u0131 ilerlemeler kaydedilmi\u015f olmakla birlikte hen\u00fcz tam bir uzla\u015fmaya yakla\u015f\u0131lamad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca m\u00fczakerelerin ne zaman sonu\u00e7lanaca\u011f\u0131 da halen belirsiz. Ticaret m\u00fczakerelerinde ABD ile \u00c7in anla\u015famazlar ve kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131kl\u0131 olarak yeni g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri konulmaya ba\u015flan\u0131rsa d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde daha kuvvetli bir yava\u015flama ya\u015fanabilecek. Ayr\u0131ca m\u00fczakerelerin uzamas\u0131 da belirsizli\u011fi art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin bir resesyona girmesinden endi\u015fe edilmeye ba\u015fland\u0131. Bir\u00e7ok uluslararas\u0131 kurum bu alanda uyar\u0131lar yap\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

2 - B\u00dcY\u00dcK BR\u0130TANYA \u0130LE AB ARASINDA AYRILIK BEL\u0130RS\u0130ZL\u0130\u011e\u0130 HALEN S\u00dcR\u00dcYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya ile AB aras\u0131nda ayr\u0131l\u0131k s\u00fcreci belirsizli\u011fini koruyor. AB B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya\u2019n\u0131n 29 Mart olan \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f tarihini 12 Nisan\u2019a kadar uzatt\u0131. Ancak B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya\u2019da parlamento ve h\u00fck\u00fcmet \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f \u015fekli \u00fczerinde anla\u015fam\u0131yor. Muhtemelen B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya, AB\u2019den s\u00fcrenin yeniden uzat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 isteyecek. Brexit belirsizli\u011fi AB ekonomisinin ve Euro\u2019nun da zay\u0131flamas\u0131na yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Bu zay\u0131flama, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n geri kalan\u0131 ve T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in de yava\u015flama anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/span><\/p>

3 - D\u00dcNYA T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE B\u00dcY\u00dcME TAHM\u0130N\u0130 D\u00dc\u015eT\u00dc<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda devam eden ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 ve ekonomilerdeki yava\u015flama nedeniyle 2019\u2019a ili\u015fkin k\u00fcresel ticarette b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini 3 y\u0131l\u0131n en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyesine indirdi. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, 2018\u2019de miktar olarak y\u00fczde 3.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin 2019\u2019da y\u00fczde 2.6 artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc. B\u00f6ylece D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, Ekim 2018\u2019de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 2019 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini 1.1 puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. <\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmininin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na ticarette ek g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmelerde yava\u015flama, finansal piyasalardaki volatilite ve geli\u015fmi\u015f piyasalarda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan parasal ko\u015fullar\u0131n ticaret \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 yapmas\u0131n\u0131 neden olarak g\u00f6sterdi. <\/span><\/p>

4 - ABD VE AVRUPA MERKEZ BANKASI PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARINDA KESK\u0130N D\u00d6N\u00dc\u015e <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel ekonomide artan riskler ve ekonomilerdeki yava\u015flamalar nedeniyle ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 ile Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 para politikalar\u0131nda keskin bir d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Daha \u00f6nce 2019\u2019da en az 2-3 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ile bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmesi beklenen Fed mart itibariyle 2019\u2019da bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca bilan\u00e7o k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmesi de eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda yar\u0131da kesilecek. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 da 2019\u2019a bir faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 beklentisi ile girdi. Ancak banka mevcut artan yava\u015flama riskleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 en erken 2020 eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na ertelerken 2019 eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda bankalara y\u00f6nelik yeni bir kredi program\u0131 ba\u015flatma karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Her iki banka da para politikalar\u0131nda ekonomide b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi desteklemeye d\u00f6nd\u00fc. <\/span><\/p>

5 - EURO\/DOLAR PAR\u0130TES\u0130 GER\u0130L\u0130YOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Avrupa Birli\u011fi ekonomisinde yava\u015flama, Brexit belirsizli\u011fi ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yeni kredi program\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irme plan\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak Euro zay\u0131flamaya devam ediyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Euro-dolar paritesi de geriliyor. Parite 2018 nisan ay\u0131ndan bu yana d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Nisan ba\u015f\u0131nda parite 1.12 alt\u0131na da indi. Euro zay\u0131f kalmaya devam edecek. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ise art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fan\u0131yor. Muhtemelen ABD 5 May\u0131s\u2019ta sona erecek \u0130ran petrol\u00fc ile ilgili muafiyetleri uzatmayacak. Bu nedenle petrol fiyatlar\u0131 da art\u0131\u015f e\u011filimine girmi\u015f bulunuyor.<\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> D\u00fcnyada endi\u015feler artarken yerel se\u00e7imler sonras\u0131 ekonomiye d\u00f6nelim ve gerekli reformlar\u0131 hayata ge\u00e7irelim.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ekonomisinde-endiseler-artiyor","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde endi\u015feler art\u0131yor","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":601,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}