{"status":true,"post":{"id":19651,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:38:37","created_at":"2018-12-23T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:38:37.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":19651,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2019 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Bir y\u0131l\u0131 daha geride b\u0131rak\u0131yoruz ve h\u0131zla 2019 y\u0131l\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. Geleneksel oldu\u011fu \u00fczere bir sonraki y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z iki yaz\u0131 kaleme alaca\u011f\u0131z. \u00d6nce d\u00fcnya ekonomisi, sonra da T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi beklentilerimizi aktaraca\u011f\u0131z. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2018 y\u0131l\u0131, k\u00fcresel krizin ard\u0131ndan 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 ile birlikte en iyi iki y\u0131ldan biri olarak geride kal\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in genel beklenti ise 2017 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131na g\u00f6re yumu\u015fak bir ini\u015fin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fidir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>1. 2019 YILINDA D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE YUMU\u015eAK \u0130N\u0130\u015e BEKLEN\u0130YOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2017 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve y\u00fczde 3.5\u2019lere yak\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposuna ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bir miktar yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 3.0\u2019ler seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi bekleniyor. Yava\u015flamada k\u00fcresel korumac\u0131l\u0131k ve mali s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma belirleyici oluyor. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler ise y\u00fczde 2.1 ve y\u00fczde 4.4 ile potansiyellerine yak\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde resesyon ve kriz emareleri en az\u0131ndan 2019 ufkunda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2. D\u00dcNYA T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE Y\u00dcZDE 5.0 B\u00dcY\u00dcME \u00d6NG\u00d6R\u00dcL\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya mal ticareti de 2017 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticareti miktar olarak y\u00fczde 4.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, dolar cinsinden de\u011feri y\u00fczde 9.0 geni\u015fleme g\u00f6steriyor. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda miktar olarak y\u00fczde 3.6, de\u011fer olarak ise y\u00fczde 5.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi bulunuyor. Yava\u015flamada hem k\u00fcresel korumac\u0131l\u0131k hem de ekonomideki yumu\u015fak ini\u015f ile birlikte mal talebindeki s\u0131n\u0131rlanma etkili olacak. Ticarete konu olan mal fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f da 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>3. PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARINDA SIKILA\u015eMA DEVAM EDECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel para politikalar\u0131nda belirleyici yine b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Fed ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 olacak. Fed ve AMB piyasalar\u0131n beklentilerinin tersine 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda para politikalar\u0131nda normalle\u015fmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Fed bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fcrken, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na da devam edecek. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 da parasal geni\u015flemeye son verdi ve olas\u0131 bir ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda olabilecek. \u0130ki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politikalar\u0131 ile k\u00fcresel mali ko\u015fullar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya, \u00f6zellikle dolar likiditesi azalmaya devam edecek. Finansman maliyetleri de artacak. Dolar libor faizleri y\u00fczde 3.0 seviyesine ula\u015facak. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc koruyacak. Euro\/dolar paritesi de 1.15\u2019lerin etraf\u0131ndan \u00e7ok uzakla\u015famayacak. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>4.EMT\u0130A F\u0130YATLARI DURA\u011eAN KALACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri ile finansal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma birlikteli\u011finde emtia fiyatlar\u0131 dura\u011fan ve talebe g\u00f6re a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmaya devam edecek. Metal ve end\u00fcstriyel hammadde fiyatlar\u0131 2017 ba\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015flayan ve 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 ortas\u0131na kadar s\u00fcren h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda dura\u011fan kalacak. G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 da uzun s\u00fcre sonra dura\u011fanla\u015f\u0131yor ve hatta geriliyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ise talep kadar \u0130ran\u2019a yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve \u00fcretici \u00fclkelerin \u00fcretimin s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki uzla\u015fmalar\u0131 belirleyecek. Ancak petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019a yeni ve daha sert enerji yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 gelmezse 70 dolar seviyesine ula\u015famayacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>5. R\u0130SKLER T\u0130CARETTE KORUMACILIK, ANLA\u015eMASIZ BREX\u0130T VE \u0130RAN\u2019A \u0130LAVE YAPTIRIMLAR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel ekonomide 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda yak\u0131ndan izlenecek \u00f6nemli \u00fc\u00e7 riskin ba\u015f\u0131nda ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. ABD ve \u00c7in mart ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar uzla\u015fma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7inde olacak. E\u011fer uzla\u015fma olmaz ve ilave koruma \u00f6nlemleri al\u0131nmaya ba\u015flan\u0131rsa o zaman d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yumu\u015fak ini\u015f yerini sert ini\u015fe b\u0131rakabilecek. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme bu senaryo i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 2.0\u2019lere kadar inebilecek. Anla\u015fmas\u0131z bir Brexit ya\u015fanmas\u0131 \u0130ngiltere ekonomisinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme, AB ekonomisinde ise durgunluk olu\u015fturarak k\u00fcresel ekonominin performans\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak. \u0130ran\u2019a \u015fu anda uygulanan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 enerji yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 yerini may\u0131s ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda muafiyetsiz ve daha sert yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara b\u0131rak\u0131rsa bu kez petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak s\u0131\u00e7rama ile d\u00fcnya ekonomisi performans\u0131 olumsuz etkilenecek. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> 2019 y\u0131l\u0131, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ve ticaretinde yava\u015flamaya ra\u011fmen T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in olumlu f\u0131rsatlar sunarken, finansal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 olu\u015fturacak gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ekonomisinde-2019-ongoruleri","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2019 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":121,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":19750,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":19651,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2019 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">Bir y\u0131l\u0131 daha geride b\u0131rak\u0131yoruz ve h\u0131zla 2019 y\u0131l\u0131na yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. Geleneksel oldu\u011fu \u00fczere bir sonraki y\u0131l\u0131n \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerini payla\u015faca\u011f\u0131m\u0131z iki yaz\u0131 kaleme alaca\u011f\u0131z. \u00d6nce d\u00fcnya ekonomisi, sonra da T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi beklentilerimizi aktaraca\u011f\u0131z. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2018 y\u0131l\u0131, k\u00fcresel krizin ard\u0131ndan 2017 y\u0131l\u0131 ile birlikte en iyi iki y\u0131ldan biri olarak geride kal\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in genel beklenti ise 2017 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131na g\u00f6re yumu\u015fak bir ini\u015fin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fidir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>1. 2019 YILINDA D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE YUMU\u015eAK \u0130N\u0130\u015e BEKLEN\u0130YOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2017 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131nda olduk\u00e7a h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti ve y\u00fczde 3.5\u2019lere yak\u0131n bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposuna ula\u015f\u0131ld\u0131. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin bir miktar yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 ve y\u00fczde 3.0\u2019ler seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi bekleniyor. Yava\u015flamada k\u00fcresel korumac\u0131l\u0131k ve mali s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma belirleyici oluyor. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fen \u00fclkeler ise y\u00fczde 2.1 ve y\u00fczde 4.4 ile potansiyellerine yak\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde resesyon ve kriz emareleri en az\u0131ndan 2019 ufkunda g\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>2. D\u00dcNYA T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE Y\u00dcZDE 5.0 B\u00dcY\u00dcME \u00d6NG\u00d6R\u00dcL\u00dcYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya mal ticareti de 2017 ve 2018 y\u0131llar\u0131nda h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticareti miktar olarak y\u00fczde 4.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken, dolar cinsinden de\u011feri y\u00fczde 9.0 geni\u015fleme g\u00f6steriyor. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda miktar olarak y\u00fczde 3.6, de\u011fer olarak ise y\u00fczde 5.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi bulunuyor. Yava\u015flamada hem k\u00fcresel korumac\u0131l\u0131k hem de ekonomideki yumu\u015fak ini\u015f ile birlikte mal talebindeki s\u0131n\u0131rlanma etkili olacak. Ticarete konu olan mal fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f da 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00e7ok s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>3. PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARINDA SIKILA\u015eMA DEVAM EDECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda k\u00fcresel para politikalar\u0131nda belirleyici yine b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde Fed ve Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 olacak. Fed ve AMB piyasalar\u0131n beklentilerinin tersine 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda para politikalar\u0131nda normalle\u015fmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek. Fed bilan\u00e7osunu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclt\u00fcrken, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na da devam edecek. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 da parasal geni\u015flemeye son verdi ve olas\u0131 bir ilk faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda olabilecek. \u0130ki merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n politikalar\u0131 ile k\u00fcresel mali ko\u015fullar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya, \u00f6zellikle dolar likiditesi azalmaya devam edecek. Finansman maliyetleri de artacak. Dolar libor faizleri y\u00fczde 3.0 seviyesine ula\u015facak. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda dolar g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc koruyacak. Euro\/dolar paritesi de 1.15\u2019lerin etraf\u0131ndan \u00e7ok uzakla\u015famayacak. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>4.EMT\u0130A F\u0130YATLARI DURA\u011eAN KALACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">D\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentileri ile finansal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma birlikteli\u011finde emtia fiyatlar\u0131 dura\u011fan ve talebe g\u00f6re a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc kalmaya devam edecek. Metal ve end\u00fcstriyel hammadde fiyatlar\u0131 2017 ba\u015f\u0131nda ba\u015flayan ve 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 ortas\u0131na kadar s\u00fcren h\u0131zl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f sonras\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda dura\u011fan kalacak. G\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 da uzun s\u00fcre sonra dura\u011fanla\u015f\u0131yor ve hatta geriliyor. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 ise talep kadar \u0130ran\u2019a yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar ve \u00fcretici \u00fclkelerin \u00fcretimin s\u0131n\u0131rlanmas\u0131 \u00fczerindeki uzla\u015fmalar\u0131 belirleyecek. Ancak petrol fiyatlar\u0131 \u0130ran\u2019a yeni ve daha sert enerji yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 gelmezse 70 dolar seviyesine ula\u015famayacak.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>5. R\u0130SKLER T\u0130CARETTE KORUMACILIK, ANLA\u015eMASIZ BREX\u0130T VE \u0130RAN\u2019A \u0130LAVE YAPTIRIMLAR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel ekonomide 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda yak\u0131ndan izlenecek \u00f6nemli \u00fc\u00e7 riskin ba\u015f\u0131nda ticarette korumac\u0131l\u0131k geliyor. ABD ve \u00c7in mart ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131na kadar uzla\u015fma aray\u0131\u015f\u0131 i\u00e7inde olacak. E\u011fer uzla\u015fma olmaz ve ilave koruma \u00f6nlemleri al\u0131nmaya ba\u015flan\u0131rsa o zaman d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde yumu\u015fak ini\u015f yerini sert ini\u015fe b\u0131rakabilecek. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme bu senaryo i\u00e7inde y\u00fczde 2.0\u2019lere kadar inebilecek. Anla\u015fmas\u0131z bir Brexit ya\u015fanmas\u0131 \u0130ngiltere ekonomisinde k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme, AB ekonomisinde ise durgunluk olu\u015fturarak k\u00fcresel ekonominin performans\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayacak. \u0130ran\u2019a \u015fu anda uygulanan s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 enerji yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 yerini may\u0131s ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda muafiyetsiz ve daha sert yapt\u0131r\u0131mlara b\u0131rak\u0131rsa bu kez petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fanacak s\u0131\u00e7rama ile d\u00fcnya ekonomisi performans\u0131 olumsuz etkilenecek. <\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> 2019 y\u0131l\u0131, d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde ve ticaretinde yava\u015flamaya ra\u011fmen T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in olumlu f\u0131rsatlar sunarken, finansal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ko\u015fullar\u0131 s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 olu\u015fturacak gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ekonomisinde-2019-ongoruleri","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2019 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":121,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}