{"status":true,"post":{"id":17657,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 10:21:46","created_at":"2017-12-17T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T07:21:46.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":17657,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2018 beklentileri ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

1 - D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE B\u00dcY\u00dcME ARTACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2018\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde kal\u0131c\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zlanarak s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. 2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.0 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2018\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme birlikte artacak. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde 2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.2 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2018\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.3 olarak bekleniyor. ABD ve AB\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler y\u00fczde 2.3 ile s\u00fcrecek. Baz\u0131 AB \u00fclkelerinde y\u00fczde 4-5 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler bekleniyor. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle petrol ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ile bu \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin \u00fcreticisi ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme yeniden toparlanacak. \u00c7in ise ekonomideki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015far\u0131 ile s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ekonomide kontroll\u00fc bir yava\u015flama sa\u011flayan \u00c7in, hedefledi\u011fi y\u00fczde 6-7 aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ula\u015f\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece \u00c7in ile ilgili hedefin \u00fczerinde yava\u015flama endi\u015fesi giderek azal\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

2 - D\u00dcNYA MAL T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE B\u00dcY\u00dcME HIZLANACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya mal ticareti 2015 ve 2016\u2019da \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde darald\u0131ktan sonra 2017\u2019de miktar olarak y\u00fczde 3.6 ve de\u011fer olarak ise y\u00fczde 7 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. B\u00f6ylece d\u00fcnya mal ticareti 2017\u2019de 17.1 trilyon dolara ula\u015facak. D\u00fcnya mal ticaretindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n arkas\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 ile olu\u015fan fiili mal talebi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bulunuyor. 2018\u2019de d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin miktar olarak y\u00fczde 4.0 ve de\u011fer olarak ise y\u00fczde 8.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi ve 18.35 trilyon dolara ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

3 - PETROL F\u0130YATLARI 60-65 DOLAR ARASINDA GER\u00c7EKLE\u015eECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, 2017 ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeler ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. OPEC ile Rusya ve di\u011fer petrol \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkeler, \u00fcretimin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131 yapt\u0131 ve anla\u015fmay\u0131 2018 sonuna kadar da uzatt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece petrol fiyatlar\u0131 kademeli olarak 30 dolar\/varil seviyelerinden ba\u015flayarak 60 dolar\/varil seviyelerine ula\u015ft\u0131. D\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile petrol talebindeki art\u0131\u015f beklentisi de fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2018\u2019de de <\/span>60-65 dolar\/varil seviyelerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>

4 - EMT\u0130A F\u0130YATLARI Y\u00dcZDE 5-10 DAHA Y\u00dcKSELEB\u0130L\u0130R <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda da 2017\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yeniden bir art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. \u00d6zellikle talep taraf\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fme ile metal fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131z kesmeden y\u00fckseldi. Di\u011fer emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda da art\u0131\u015flar ya\u015fand\u0131. 2018\u2019de emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, talebin devam edecek olmas\u0131 ile birlikte en az 2017 kapan\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve hatta y\u00fczde 5-10 aras\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar olabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

5 - K\u00dcRESEL PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASINDA NORMALLE\u015eME E\u011e\u0130L\u0130M\u0130 G\u00dc\u00c7LENECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel para politikas\u0131nda ise geni\u015flemeci politikalar kademeli olarak yerini normalle\u015fmeye b\u0131rakmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. 2017\u2019de ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na devam ederken bilan\u00e7osunu da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye ba\u015flayarak para politikas\u0131nda normalle\u015fmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. 2018\u2019de Fed yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131 ile birlikte faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ve bilan\u00e7oyu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye devam edecek. Di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7inde ise Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (AMB) 2017 genelinde geni\u015flemeci politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ancak 2018\u2019de \u00f6ncelikle geni\u015fleme miktar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya ba\u015flayacak. 2018 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar uzatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 program\u0131 bu tarihte yeniden de\u011ferlendirecek. Muhtemelen AMB y\u0131lsonunda veya en ge\u00e7 2019 ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda geni\u015flemeyi tamamlayacak. Avrupa\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ise g\u00fcndeme en erken 2019\u2019da gelebilecek.<\/span><\/p>

6 - EURO VE DOLAR 2018\u2019DE G\u00dc\u00c7LENMEYE DEVAM EDECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel para politikalar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan bu geli\u015fmeler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Euro\/dolar paritesi 2017\u2019de ortalama 1.13 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken y\u0131lsonunu muhtemelen 1.18 seviyelerine yak\u0131n kapatacak. Dolar lehine olu\u015fan mali ko\u015fullara ra\u011fmen dolar\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli nedeni ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ile ilgili endi\u015feler. Ayr\u0131ca AB ekonomisinin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi de Euro\u2019yu destekliyor. 2018\u2019de Euro\u2019nun daha da de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Dolar ise Euro hari\u00e7 di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanacak. <\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> S\u00f6z\u00fcn bitti\u011fi yerdeyiz. de\u011ferli \u0130TO Ba\u015fkan\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 gen\u00e7 ya\u015fta kaybettik. Allah\u2019tan rahmet, yak\u0131nlar\u0131na ba\u015fsa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0130TO ailesine de sab\u0131rlar diliyorum.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ekonomisinde-2018-beklentileri-ve-ongoruler","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2018 beklentileri ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":156,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":17756,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":17657,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2018 beklentileri ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

1 - D\u00dcNYA EKONOM\u0130S\u0130NDE B\u00dcY\u00dcME ARTACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2018\u2019de d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde kal\u0131c\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zlanarak s\u00fcrmesi bekleniyor. 2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.0 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin 2018\u2019de y\u00fczde 3.3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme birlikte artacak. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde 2017\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.2 olan b\u00fcy\u00fcme 2018\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.3 olarak bekleniyor. ABD ve AB\u2019de b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler y\u00fczde 2.3 ile s\u00fcrecek. Baz\u0131 AB \u00fclkelerinde y\u00fczde 4-5 aras\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeler bekleniyor. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde de b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zlanaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u00d6zellikle petrol ve emtia fiyatlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f ile bu \u00fcr\u00fcnlerin \u00fcreticisi ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 \u00fclkelerde b\u00fcy\u00fcme yeniden toparlanacak. \u00c7in ise ekonomideki d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ba\u015far\u0131 ile s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Ekonomide kontroll\u00fc bir yava\u015flama sa\u011flayan \u00c7in, hedefledi\u011fi y\u00fczde 6-7 aras\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ula\u015f\u0131yor. B\u00f6ylece \u00c7in ile ilgili hedefin \u00fczerinde yava\u015flama endi\u015fesi giderek azal\u0131yor. <\/span><\/p>

2 - D\u00dcNYA MAL T\u0130CARET\u0130NDE B\u00dcY\u00dcME HIZLANACAK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya mal ticareti 2015 ve 2016\u2019da \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde darald\u0131ktan sonra 2017\u2019de miktar olarak y\u00fczde 3.6 ve de\u011fer olarak ise y\u00fczde 7 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcyor. B\u00f6ylece d\u00fcnya mal ticareti 2017\u2019de 17.1 trilyon dolara ula\u015facak. D\u00fcnya mal ticaretindeki art\u0131\u015f\u0131n arkas\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin h\u0131zlanmas\u0131 ile olu\u015fan fiili mal talebi art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bulunuyor. 2018\u2019de d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin miktar olarak y\u00fczde 4.0 ve de\u011fer olarak ise y\u00fczde 8.0 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi ve 18.35 trilyon dolara ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

3 - PETROL F\u0130YATLARI 60-65 DOLAR ARASINDA GER\u00c7EKLE\u015eECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Petrol fiyatlar\u0131, 2017 ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6r\u00fclen en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyeler ard\u0131ndan h\u0131zla y\u00fckselmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. OPEC ile Rusya ve di\u011fer petrol \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkeler, \u00fcretimin k\u0131s\u0131lmas\u0131 anla\u015fmas\u0131 yapt\u0131 ve anla\u015fmay\u0131 2018 sonuna kadar da uzatt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece petrol fiyatlar\u0131 kademeli olarak 30 dolar\/varil seviyelerinden ba\u015flayarak 60 dolar\/varil seviyelerine ula\u015ft\u0131. D\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile petrol talebindeki art\u0131\u015f beklentisi de fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131 destekledi. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n 2018\u2019de de <\/span>60-65 dolar\/varil seviyelerinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. <\/span><\/p>

4 - EMT\u0130A F\u0130YATLARI Y\u00dcZDE 5-10 DAHA Y\u00dcKSELEB\u0130L\u0130R <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda da 2017\u2019nin ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda yeniden bir art\u0131\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. \u00d6zellikle talep taraf\u0131ndaki iyile\u015fme ile metal fiyatlar\u0131 h\u0131z kesmeden y\u00fckseldi. Di\u011fer emtia fiyatlar\u0131nda da art\u0131\u015flar ya\u015fand\u0131. 2018\u2019de emtia fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n, talebin devam edecek olmas\u0131 ile birlikte en az 2017 kapan\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131nda kalaca\u011f\u0131 ve hatta y\u00fczde 5-10 aras\u0131nda art\u0131\u015flar olabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p>

5 - K\u00dcRESEL PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KASINDA NORMALLE\u015eME E\u011e\u0130L\u0130M\u0130 G\u00dc\u00c7LENECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel para politikas\u0131nda ise geni\u015flemeci politikalar kademeli olarak yerini normalle\u015fmeye b\u0131rakmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. 2017\u2019de ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 Fed, faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na devam ederken bilan\u00e7osunu da k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye ba\u015flayarak para politikas\u0131nda normalle\u015fmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. 2018\u2019de Fed yeni ba\u015fkan\u0131 ile birlikte faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na ve bilan\u00e7oyu k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcltmeye devam edecek. Di\u011fer merkez bankalar\u0131 i\u00e7inde ise Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (AMB) 2017 genelinde geni\u015flemeci politikas\u0131n\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ancak 2018\u2019de \u00f6ncelikle geni\u015fleme miktar\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya ba\u015flayacak. 2018 Eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131na kadar uzatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 program\u0131 bu tarihte yeniden de\u011ferlendirecek. Muhtemelen AMB y\u0131lsonunda veya en ge\u00e7 2019 ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda geni\u015flemeyi tamamlayacak. Avrupa\u2019da faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ise g\u00fcndeme en erken 2019\u2019da gelebilecek.<\/span><\/p>

6 - EURO VE DOLAR 2018\u2019DE G\u00dc\u00c7LENMEYE DEVAM EDECEK<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

K\u00fcresel para politikalar\u0131nda ya\u015fanan bu geli\u015fmeler \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Euro\/dolar paritesi 2017\u2019de ortalama 1.13 seviyesinde ger\u00e7ekle\u015firken y\u0131lsonunu muhtemelen 1.18 seviyelerine yak\u0131n kapatacak. Dolar lehine olu\u015fan mali ko\u015fullara ra\u011fmen dolar\u0131n zay\u0131f kalmas\u0131n\u0131n en \u00f6nemli nedeni ABD Ba\u015fkan\u0131 ile ilgili endi\u015feler. Ayr\u0131ca AB ekonomisinin beklentilerin \u00fczerinde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi de Euro\u2019yu destekliyor. 2018\u2019de Euro\u2019nun daha da de\u011fer kazanaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin beklentiler g\u00fc\u00e7leniyor. Dolar ise Euro hari\u00e7 di\u011fer para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazanacak. <\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> S\u00f6z\u00fcn bitti\u011fi yerdeyiz. de\u011ferli \u0130TO Ba\u015fkan\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 gen\u00e7 ya\u015fta kaybettik. Allah\u2019tan rahmet, yak\u0131nlar\u0131na ba\u015fsa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u0130TO ailesine de sab\u0131rlar diliyorum.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dunya-ekonomisinde-2018-beklentileri-ve-ongoruler","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde 2018 beklentileri ve \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":156,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}