{"status":true,"post":{"id":36916,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-02-06 13:12:00","created_at":"2023-02-06T10:12:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-02-06T10:13:05.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":36916,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u00fcnya 2023\u2019te \u2018t\u00fcketim\u2019 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"


keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2022, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u2018yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u2019 boyutunda iyi bir y\u0131l olarak ge\u00e7medi. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler (BM) Ticaret ve Kalk\u0131nma Konferans\u0131 (UNCTAD) sekretaryas\u0131n\u0131n kamuoyu ile payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 son \u2018k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131m e\u011filimi izleme raporu\u2019 2023 i\u00e7in de \u2018yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u2019 boyutunda beklentinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Malum, \u00fclkeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ikiye ayr\u0131l\u0131r; birincisi do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 olarak da adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. \u00dclke ekonomisine yeni bir tesis, yeni bir fabrika, yeni bir okul, yeni bir havaliman\u0131, yeni bir otoyol kazand\u0131rmak ad\u0131na \u00fclkenin milli servetini, t\u00fcm fiziki unsurlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik yat\u0131r\u0131mlard\u0131r. S\u00f6z konusu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar \u2018s\u0131f\u0131rdan arsa, arazi \u00fczerine yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019 olarak da adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. E\u011fer, s\u00f6z konusu yat\u0131r\u0131m zaten var olan \u015firkete, firmaya, fabrikaya, tesise ortak olmak veya t\u00fcm\u00fcyle sat\u0131n almak \u015feklinde ise buna \u2018birle\u015fme veya sat\u0131n alma\u2019 ama\u00e7l\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m diyoruz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

DO\u011eRUDAN YATIRIMLAR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

2022, zaten k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu belirsizlikler ve zorluklar ortada iken, \u00fcst\u00fcne gelen Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 \u015foku ile iki \u2018siyah ku\u011fu\u2019nun k\u00fcresel enerji ve g\u0131da arz krizine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, k\u00fcresel enflasyonun s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na sebep olan negatif etkisi ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n da k\u00fcresel enflasyon etkisini k\u0131rmak ad\u0131na politika faizini y\u00fckseltmeleri ile hayli me\u015fakkatli bir y\u0131l olarak geride kald\u0131. Tablonun b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirsizli\u011fin yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma maliyetinin katland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l olmas\u0131 itibariyle 2022\u2019de yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n gerilemesinin gerek\u00e7elerini yeterince izah ediyor. Buna uluslararas\u0131 finans sisteminde artan bir \u015fekilde, k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 sarmal\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 duyulan endi\u015fenin katlanmas\u0131n\u0131 da ekleyin. D\u00fcnya genelinde 2022\u2019de \u2018s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi\u2019 birle\u015fme ve sat\u0131n almalar\u0131n y\u00fczde 6, ABD bazl\u0131 olarak y\u00fczde 50 gerilemesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmamal\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00f6nde gelen birka\u00e7\u00a0<\/span>G20 \u00fclkesinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte olduklar\u0131 do\u011frudan mega proje yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 olmasa, do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar tablosu da parlak de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Nitekim, Avrupa\u2019da 2022 boyunca do\u011frudan sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 15 gerilemesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmamal\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 11 art\u0131\u015fla t\u00fcm Avrupa\u2019dan ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 da not al\u0131nmal\u0131. \u00c7in ise \u00fclke i\u00e7erisinde 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda duyurulmu\u015f olan do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda y\u00fczde 31 iptal ya\u015fasa da s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi olarak y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc projelerin finansman\u0131n\u0131 2022\u2019de de y\u00fczde 11 art\u0131rmay\u0131 bildi. Hindistan, 2022\u2019yi \u00fclke i\u00e7erisinde ikiye katlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m duyurusunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc projelere olan finansman deste\u011fini de y\u00fczde 34 art\u0131rarak tamamlad\u0131. ASEAN \u00fclkeleri grubu ise 2022\u2019de kendi ekonomilerine y\u00f6nelik yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen yeni \u015firket birle\u015fme ve sat\u0131n almalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 74 daralma ya\u015fasalar da \u00fclke i\u00e7erisinde yeni do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m hamlesini y\u00fczde 21 art\u0131rd\u0131lar. Brezilya da 2022\u2019de, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re, \u00fclke i\u00e7erisinde do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m hamlesini \u00fc\u00e7te bir art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olsa da s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc projelere finansman\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 17 daraltmak durumunda kald\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

B\u00dcY\u00dcMEDE LOKOMOT\u0130F \u00dcLKELER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00dclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131nda, do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m hamlelerini a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak, k\u00fcresel iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, yenilenebilir enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 hamleleri olu\u015fturuyor. Bununla birlikte, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artan bir tempoda art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik belirsizlik ve \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n halen faiz art\u0131rma e\u011filimi i\u00e7erisinde olmalar\u0131, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2022\u2019den daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Her ne kadar, IMF 2023 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 2.7\u2019den y\u00fczde 2.9\u2019a yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde revize etse de bu oran 2022 i\u00e7in tahmin edilen y\u00fczde 3.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n gerisinde. Buna, do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda gerilemenin ve yava\u015flaman\u0131n devam edece\u011fini katt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, 2023\u2019te d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin \u2018t\u00fcketim\u2019 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi; k\u00fcresel pandemi nedeniyle ertelenmi\u015f bilhassa l\u00fcks mal ve hizmet t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak, gayrimenkul yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan o \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kolay bir y\u0131l olmayacak. IMF, son raporunda, k\u00fcresel enflasyon riskine bu y\u0131l da dikkat edilmesinin \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

G\u00f6zler, \u00c7in, Hindistan, T\u00fcrkiye, Endonezya gibi G20\u2019nin \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fcme lokomotifi\u2019 \u00fclkelerinde olacak.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"dunya-2023te-tuketim-ile-buyuyecek","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":199,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":37042,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":36916,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u00fcnya 2023\u2019te \u2018t\u00fcketim\u2019 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcyecek","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"


keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2022, d\u00fcnya ekonomisi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u2018yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u2019 boyutunda iyi bir y\u0131l olarak ge\u00e7medi. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler (BM) Ticaret ve Kalk\u0131nma Konferans\u0131 (UNCTAD) sekretaryas\u0131n\u0131n kamuoyu ile payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 son \u2018k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131m e\u011filimi izleme raporu\u2019 2023 i\u00e7in de \u2018yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u2019 boyutunda beklentinin g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. Malum, \u00fclkeler a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ikiye ayr\u0131l\u0131r; birincisi do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 olarak da adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. \u00dclke ekonomisine yeni bir tesis, yeni bir fabrika, yeni bir okul, yeni bir havaliman\u0131, yeni bir otoyol kazand\u0131rmak ad\u0131na \u00fclkenin milli servetini, t\u00fcm fiziki unsurlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmaya y\u00f6nelik yat\u0131r\u0131mlard\u0131r. S\u00f6z konusu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar \u2018s\u0131f\u0131rdan arsa, arazi \u00fczerine yat\u0131r\u0131m\u2019 olarak da adland\u0131r\u0131l\u0131r. E\u011fer, s\u00f6z konusu yat\u0131r\u0131m zaten var olan \u015firkete, firmaya, fabrikaya, tesise ortak olmak veya t\u00fcm\u00fcyle sat\u0131n almak \u015feklinde ise buna \u2018birle\u015fme veya sat\u0131n alma\u2019 ama\u00e7l\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m diyoruz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

DO\u011eRUDAN YATIRIMLAR\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

2022, zaten k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n sebep oldu\u011fu belirsizlikler ve zorluklar ortada iken, \u00fcst\u00fcne gelen Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 \u015foku ile iki \u2018siyah ku\u011fu\u2019nun k\u00fcresel enerji ve g\u0131da arz krizine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, k\u00fcresel enflasyonun s\u0131\u00e7ramas\u0131na sebep olan negatif etkisi ve merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n da k\u00fcresel enflasyon etkisini k\u0131rmak ad\u0131na politika faizini y\u00fckseltmeleri ile hayli me\u015fakkatli bir y\u0131l olarak geride kald\u0131. Tablonun b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fc k\u00fcresel yat\u0131r\u0131m i\u015ftah\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan belirsizli\u011fin yo\u011funla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131m yapma maliyetinin katland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir y\u0131l olmas\u0131 itibariyle 2022\u2019de yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n gerilemesinin gerek\u00e7elerini yeterince izah ediyor. Buna uluslararas\u0131 finans sisteminde artan bir \u015fekilde, k\u00fcresel bor\u00e7 sarmal\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 duyulan endi\u015fenin katlanmas\u0131n\u0131 da ekleyin. D\u00fcnya genelinde 2022\u2019de \u2018s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi\u2019 birle\u015fme ve sat\u0131n almalar\u0131n y\u00fczde 6, ABD bazl\u0131 olarak y\u00fczde 50 gerilemesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmamal\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye gibi \u00f6nde gelen birka\u00e7\u00a0<\/span>G20 \u00fclkesinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmekte olduklar\u0131 do\u011frudan mega proje yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 olmasa, do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar tablosu da parlak de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Nitekim, Avrupa\u2019da 2022 boyunca do\u011frudan sabit sermaye yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 15 gerilemesi \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 olmamal\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 11 art\u0131\u015fla t\u00fcm Avrupa\u2019dan ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f olmas\u0131 da not al\u0131nmal\u0131. \u00c7in ise \u00fclke i\u00e7erisinde 2022 ba\u015f\u0131nda duyurulmu\u015f olan do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda y\u00fczde 31 iptal ya\u015fasa da s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi olarak y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc projelerin finansman\u0131n\u0131 2022\u2019de de y\u00fczde 11 art\u0131rmay\u0131 bildi. Hindistan, 2022\u2019yi \u00fclke i\u00e7erisinde ikiye katlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 yeni do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m duyurusunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc projelere olan finansman deste\u011fini de y\u00fczde 34 art\u0131rarak tamamlad\u0131. ASEAN \u00fclkeleri grubu ise 2022\u2019de kendi ekonomilerine y\u00f6nelik yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan gelen yeni \u015firket birle\u015fme ve sat\u0131n almalar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 74 daralma ya\u015fasalar da \u00fclke i\u00e7erisinde yeni do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m hamlesini y\u00fczde 21 art\u0131rd\u0131lar. Brezilya da 2022\u2019de, \u00f6nceki d\u00f6neme g\u00f6re, \u00fclke i\u00e7erisinde do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m hamlesini \u00fc\u00e7te bir art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f olsa da s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fc\u011f\u00fc projelere finansman\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 17 daraltmak durumunda kald\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

B\u00dcY\u00dcMEDE LOKOMOT\u0130F \u00dcLKELER<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00dclkelerin b\u00fcy\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131nda, do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m hamlelerini a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak, k\u00fcresel iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, yenilenebilir enerji yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 hamleleri olu\u015fturuyor. Bununla birlikte, Rusya-Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n artan bir tempoda art\u0131rd\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomik belirsizlik ve \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n halen faiz art\u0131rma e\u011filimi i\u00e7erisinde olmalar\u0131, 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin 2022\u2019den daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Her ne kadar, IMF 2023 k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 2.7\u2019den y\u00fczde 2.9\u2019a yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nde revize etse de bu oran 2022 i\u00e7in tahmin edilen y\u00fczde 3.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n gerisinde. Buna, do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda gerilemenin ve yava\u015flaman\u0131n devam edece\u011fini katt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, 2023\u2019te d\u00fcnya ekonomisinin \u2018t\u00fcketim\u2019 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi; k\u00fcresel pandemi nedeniyle ertelenmi\u015f bilhassa l\u00fcks mal ve hizmet t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 ile b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi s\u00fcrd\u00fcrece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak, gayrimenkul yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan o \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde kolay bir y\u0131l olmayacak. IMF, son raporunda, k\u00fcresel enflasyon riskine bu y\u0131l da dikkat edilmesinin \u00f6nemli oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlat\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

G\u00f6zler, \u00c7in, Hindistan, T\u00fcrkiye, Endonezya gibi G20\u2019nin \u2018b\u00fcy\u00fcme lokomotifi\u2019 \u00fclkelerinde olacak.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"dunya-2023te-tuketim-ile-buyuyecek","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":199,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}