{"status":true,"post":{"id":19273,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:34:36","created_at":"2018-10-30T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:34:36.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":19273,"is_featured":0,"title":"Dolar\u0131n zor g\u00fcnleri ve PPK","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">\u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nin taht\u0131na 1925\u2019ten itibaren g\u00f6z diken ABD Dolar\u0131, 1944\u2019te Bretton Woods uluslararas\u0131 para sistemiyle \u2018kapitalizmin yeni g\u00f6zdesi\u2019 olmas\u0131yla d\u00fcnya merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 rezervlerin y\u00fczde 77\u2019sini olu\u015fturan d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin y\u00fczde 85\u2019ine hakim olmay\u0131 bildi. Ancak So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n son 12 y\u0131l\u0131 dolara yaramad\u0131 ve 1991\u2019de rezervlerdeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 46\u2019ya kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n biti\u015fi, ABD\u2019yi k\u00fcresel \u2018ekonomi-politik\u2019te \u2018tek kutup\u2019 olma noktas\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve \u2018tek kutuplu\u2019 bir d\u00fcnyada olu\u015fturulacak \u2018yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni\u2019 yine \u2018dolar\u0131n imparatorlu\u011fu\u2019nda y\u00fcr\u00fcmeliydi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>REZERVLERDEK\u0130 PAYI GER\u0130LED\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD, kendi paras\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel rezervlerdeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden y\u00fczde 72\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131. Ancak 2008 k\u00fcresel kriziyle dolar\u0131n prestiji sars\u0131ld\u0131 ve 2012\u2019de d\u00fcnya merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n rezervlerinde pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 60.2\u2019ye geriledi. Dolar\u0131n rezervlerdeki pay\u0131 2014\u2019te y\u00fczde 64.6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmi\u015f olsa da, bug\u00fcn yeniden 62.5\u2019e gerilemi\u015f durumda. Yani Trump y\u00f6netimi ve Hazine Bakan\u0131 Mnuchin\u2019in ticaret ve kur sava\u015flar\u0131yla dolar\u0131 bir \u2018tehdit mekanizmas\u0131\u2019 olarak kullanmas\u0131 ters tepmi\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>ABD TAHV\u0130LLER\u0130 HIZLA ELDEN \u00c7IKARILIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD\u2019nin 20.5 trilyon dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olan federal kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 Hazine tahvillerine d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkeleri ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ilgisi ise 2018\u2019de, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azalm\u0131\u015f durumda. D\u00fcnyadaki t\u00fcm \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131, ABD\u2019nin kabul edilemez ticaret ve kur sava\u015f\u0131 tehdidi ile dolar\u0131 \u2018tehdit\u2019 mekanizmas\u0131 olarak kullanmaya c\u00fcret etmesi sonras\u0131nda, rezervlerinde tuttuklar\u0131 ABD hazine tahvillerini h\u0131zla bo\u015falt\u0131yorlar. \u00c7in merkez bankas\u0131ndan TCMB\u2019ye, ABD tahvilleri h\u0131zla elden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 2019-2022 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 1.2 trilyon dolara do\u011fru t\u0131rmanan federal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n finansman\u0131 ad\u0131na, tahvillerini alacak yeterli uluslararas\u0131 m\u00fc\u015fteri bulamamas\u0131 gibi bir sarmala d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>POL\u0130T\u0130KA FA\u0130Z\u0130N\u0130 SAB\u0130T TUTMAYA DEVAM<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle, Amerikal\u0131 sayg\u0131n iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar, ABD ekonomisinin kamu finansman\u0131 ve resesyon riski a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tehlikeyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funu vurguluyorlar. TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu da (PPK), k\u00fcresel geli\u015fmeleri ve enflasyon riskini dikkate alarak, politika faizini sabit tutma karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Faiz art\u0131rmak stagflasyon riski, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ise alg\u0131 bozulmas\u0131 olu\u015fturabilirdi. TCMB, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 4 ay politika faizini sabit tutmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u2018NAK\u0130T PARA\u2019YA K\u00dcRESEL SAVA\u015e<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131l g\u00fcndemimize girecek konulardan biri de, \u2018nakit paraya kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u2019. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Bu sava\u015f\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli gerek\u00e7esi var: Birincisi, nakit para ulusal ve uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde organize su\u00e7 ve ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleriyle m\u00fccadeleyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130kincisi, nakit para karaborsa ve yer alt\u0131 ekonomisinin faaliyetlerini kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerinde bile kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonomiyi, yani yasal da olsa vergilendirilmesi istenmeyen ekonomik ve ticari faaliyetleri ve sistem d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tasarruf tutulabilmesini kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Ancak insan haklar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli \u00e7aba g\u00f6steren STK\u2019lar, \u2018nakit para\u2019 kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tedbirlerin ekonomik ve toplumsal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fckleri azaltmas\u0131 riskinden hayli \u015fikayet\u00e7iler.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte, ilgin\u00e7 i\u00e7erikleri hayli detayl\u0131 tablo, grafik ve bilgilerle donatarak payla\u015fan bir dijital medya kurulu\u015fu olan Visiul Capitalist\u2019in derledi\u011fi detaylar, 2010-2015 aras\u0131 nakit olmayan parasal i\u015flem hacminin y\u00fczde 50 art\u0131\u015fla 426 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Peki, \u2018nakit\u2019 h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u2018kral\u2019 ise \u2018kral\u2019\u0131n taht\u0131n\u0131 \u00fclkeler nas\u0131l sallamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor? <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Online bankac\u0131l\u0131k imkanlar\u0131n\u0131, ak\u0131ll\u0131 cihazlar\u0131, mobil \u00f6deme teknolojilerini ve \u015fifreleme teknolojilerini yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131rarak, \u00fclkeler \u2018nakit para\u2019 ihtiyac\u0131 ve kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya kararl\u0131lar. Bununla birlikte Avustralya\u2019dan Singapur\u2019a, Venezuela\u2019dan ABD ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne ve hatta Hindistan\u2019a, \u00fclkeler y\u00fcksek kup\u00fcrl\u00fc ve nominal de\u011ferli paralar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla tedav\u00fclden kald\u0131r\u0131yorlar. Fransa, \u0130sve\u00e7 ve Yunanistan, nakit i\u015flemlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne k\u0131s\u0131tlama getirdi ve k\u0131rsal b\u00f6lgelerdeki ATM\u2019lerin say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. G\u00fcney Kore, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t paralar\u0131n\u0131 tamamen ortadan kald\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefliyor. S\u00f6z\u00fcn \u00f6z\u00fc, Cumhuriyet\u2019in 100. y\u0131l\u0131na, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de \u2018nakit para\u2019 kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczenlemelerle girme ihtimalini uzak g\u00f6rmeyelim.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"dolarin-zor-gunleri-ve-ppk","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Dolar\u0131n zor g\u00fcnleri ve PPK","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":79,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":19372,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":19273,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Dolar\u0131n zor g\u00fcnleri ve PPK","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p><span class=\"large\">\u0130ngiliz Sterlini\u2019nin taht\u0131na 1925\u2019ten itibaren g\u00f6z diken ABD Dolar\u0131, 1944\u2019te Bretton Woods uluslararas\u0131 para sistemiyle \u2018kapitalizmin yeni g\u00f6zdesi\u2019 olmas\u0131yla d\u00fcnya merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n uluslararas\u0131 rezervlerin y\u00fczde 77\u2019sini olu\u015fturan d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin y\u00fczde 85\u2019ine hakim olmay\u0131 bildi. Ancak So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n son 12 y\u0131l\u0131 dolara yaramad\u0131 ve 1991\u2019de rezervlerdeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 46\u2019ya kadar d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. So\u011fuk Sava\u015f\u2019\u0131n biti\u015fi, ABD\u2019yi k\u00fcresel \u2018ekonomi-politik\u2019te \u2018tek kutup\u2019 olma noktas\u0131na ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131 ve \u2018tek kutuplu\u2019 bir d\u00fcnyada olu\u015fturulacak \u2018yeni d\u00fcnya d\u00fczeni\u2019 yine \u2018dolar\u0131n imparatorlu\u011fu\u2019nda y\u00fcr\u00fcmeliydi.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>REZERVLERDEK\u0130 PAYI GER\u0130LED\u0130<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD, kendi paras\u0131n\u0131n k\u00fcresel rezervlerdeki a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 yeniden y\u00fczde 72\u2019ye \u00e7\u0131karmay\u0131 ba\u015fard\u0131. Ancak 2008 k\u00fcresel kriziyle dolar\u0131n prestiji sars\u0131ld\u0131 ve 2012\u2019de d\u00fcnya merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n rezervlerinde pay\u0131 y\u00fczde 60.2\u2019ye geriledi. Dolar\u0131n rezervlerdeki pay\u0131 2014\u2019te y\u00fczde 64.6\u2019ya y\u00fckselmi\u015f olsa da, bug\u00fcn yeniden 62.5\u2019e gerilemi\u015f durumda. Yani Trump y\u00f6netimi ve Hazine Bakan\u0131 Mnuchin\u2019in ticaret ve kur sava\u015flar\u0131yla dolar\u0131 bir \u2018tehdit mekanizmas\u0131\u2019 olarak kullanmas\u0131 ters tepmi\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>ABD TAHV\u0130LLER\u0130 HIZLA ELDEN \u00c7IKARILIYOR<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">ABD\u2019nin 20.5 trilyon dolara ula\u015fm\u0131\u015f olan federal kamu bor\u00e7lar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131\u011f\u0131 Hazine tahvillerine d\u00fcnyan\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen \u00fclkeleri ve yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n ilgisi ise 2018\u2019de, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131la g\u00f6re yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azalm\u0131\u015f durumda. D\u00fcnyadaki t\u00fcm \u00f6nde gelen merkez bankalar\u0131, ABD\u2019nin kabul edilemez ticaret ve kur sava\u015f\u0131 tehdidi ile dolar\u0131 \u2018tehdit\u2019 mekanizmas\u0131 olarak kullanmaya c\u00fcret etmesi sonras\u0131nda, rezervlerinde tuttuklar\u0131 ABD hazine tahvillerini h\u0131zla bo\u015falt\u0131yorlar. \u00c7in merkez bankas\u0131ndan TCMB\u2019ye, ABD tahvilleri h\u0131zla elden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu tablo, 2019-2022 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in ABD a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan 1.2 trilyon dolara do\u011fru t\u0131rmanan federal b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n finansman\u0131 ad\u0131na, tahvillerini alacak yeterli uluslararas\u0131 m\u00fc\u015fteri bulamamas\u0131 gibi bir sarmala d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015febilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>POL\u0130T\u0130KA FA\u0130Z\u0130N\u0130 SAB\u0130T TUTMAYA DEVAM<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Bu nedenle, Amerikal\u0131 sayg\u0131n iktisat\u00e7\u0131lar, ABD ekonomisinin kamu finansman\u0131 ve resesyon riski a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan tehlikeyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011funu vurguluyorlar. TCMB Para Politikas\u0131 Kurulu da (PPK), k\u00fcresel geli\u015fmeleri ve enflasyon riskini dikkate alarak, politika faizini sabit tutma karar\u0131 ald\u0131. Faiz art\u0131rmak stagflasyon riski, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ise alg\u0131 bozulmas\u0131 olu\u015fturabilirdi. TCMB, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 4 ay politika faizini sabit tutmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrebilir.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\"><strong>\u2018NAK\u0130T PARA\u2019YA K\u00dcRESEL SAVA\u015e<\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki 10 y\u0131l g\u00fcndemimize girecek konulardan biri de, \u2018nakit paraya kar\u015f\u0131 sava\u015f\u2019. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Bu sava\u015f\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7 \u00f6nemli gerek\u00e7esi var: Birincisi, nakit para ulusal ve uluslararas\u0131 d\u00fczeyde organize su\u00e7 ve ter\u00f6r \u00f6rg\u00fctleriyle m\u00fccadeleyi zorla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u0130kincisi, nakit para karaborsa ve yer alt\u0131 ekonomisinin faaliyetlerini kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. \u00dc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fcs\u00fc, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en geli\u015fmi\u015f ekonomilerinde bile kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 ekonomiyi, yani yasal da olsa vergilendirilmesi istenmeyen ekonomik ve ticari faaliyetleri ve sistem d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda tasarruf tutulabilmesini kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131yor. Ancak insan haklar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli \u00e7aba g\u00f6steren STK\u2019lar, \u2018nakit para\u2019 kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tedbirlerin ekonomik ve toplumsal \u00f6zg\u00fcrl\u00fckleri azaltmas\u0131 riskinden hayli \u015fikayet\u00e7iler.<\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">K\u00fcresel \u00f6l\u00e7ekte, ilgin\u00e7 i\u00e7erikleri hayli detayl\u0131 tablo, grafik ve bilgilerle donatarak payla\u015fan bir dijital medya kurulu\u015fu olan Visiul Capitalist\u2019in derledi\u011fi detaylar, 2010-2015 aras\u0131 nakit olmayan parasal i\u015flem hacminin y\u00fczde 50 art\u0131\u015fla 426 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Peki, \u2018nakit\u2019 h\u00e2l\u00e2 \u2018kral\u2019 ise \u2018kral\u2019\u0131n taht\u0131n\u0131 \u00fclkeler nas\u0131l sallamaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor? <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Online bankac\u0131l\u0131k imkanlar\u0131n\u0131, ak\u0131ll\u0131 cihazlar\u0131, mobil \u00f6deme teknolojilerini ve \u015fifreleme teknolojilerini yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131rarak, \u00fclkeler \u2018nakit para\u2019 ihtiyac\u0131 ve kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya kararl\u0131lar. Bununla birlikte Avustralya\u2019dan Singapur\u2019a, Venezuela\u2019dan ABD ve Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019ne ve hatta Hindistan\u2019a, \u00fclkeler y\u00fcksek kup\u00fcrl\u00fc ve nominal de\u011ferli paralar\u0131n\u0131 h\u0131zla tedav\u00fclden kald\u0131r\u0131yorlar. Fransa, \u0130sve\u00e7 ve Yunanistan, nakit i\u015flemlerinin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcne k\u0131s\u0131tlama getirdi ve k\u0131rsal b\u00f6lgelerdeki ATM\u2019lerin say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 azaltt\u0131. G\u00fcney Kore, 2020 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar k\u00e2\u011f\u0131t paralar\u0131n\u0131 tamamen ortadan kald\u0131rmay\u0131 hedefliyor. S\u00f6z\u00fcn \u00f6z\u00fc, Cumhuriyet\u2019in 100. y\u0131l\u0131na, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de de \u2018nakit para\u2019 kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131n\u0131rland\u0131r\u0131laca\u011f\u0131 d\u00fczenlemelerle girme ihtimalini uzak g\u00f6rmeyelim.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"dolarin-zor-gunleri-ve-ppk","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Dolar\u0131n zor g\u00fcnleri ve PPK","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":79,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}