{"status":true,"post":{"id":22678,"user_id":2,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 14:19:29","created_at":"2020-08-13T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T11:19:29.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":22678,"is_featured":0,"title":"Dolar\u0131n ayr\u0131cal\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00c7in","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Fatih Oktay<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnyada, bir zamanlar\u0131n Frans\u0131z Maliye Bakan\u0131 Val\u00e9ry Giscard d\u2019Estaing\u2019\u0131n \u2018fahi\u015f ayr\u0131cal\u0131k\u2019 olarak niteledi\u011fi, herkes taraf\u0131ndan kabul edilmesinden kaynaklanan \u00f6zel bir konumu var. ABD\u2019nin \u00f6demeler dengesi gibi bir sorunu yok; \u00fclkede yerle\u015fikler d\u00fcnyadan kendi paralar\u0131 ile mal ithal edebiliyorlar. ABD ile hi\u00e7bir ili\u015fkisi olmayan \u00fclkelerin insanlar\u0131 da birbirlerinden mal al\u0131rken s\u0131kl\u0131kla dolar \u00fczerinden fiyat verip \u00f6deme yap\u0131yorlar. ABD d\u00fcnya ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 8, ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 12\u2019sini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriyor ama d\u00fcnya d\u0131\u015f ticaret \u00f6demelerinin yar\u0131s\u0131 dolar \u00fczerinden yap\u0131l\u0131yor. ABD ile ili\u015fkisi olsun, olmas\u0131n, d\u00fcnyadaki \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 bor\u00e7 al\u0131\u015fveri\u015finin de yar\u0131s\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131l\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya merkez bankalar\u0131, rezervlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131n\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 olarak tutuyor. D\u00fcnyadaki d\u00f6viz al\u0131\u015fveri\u015flerinin y\u00fczde 85\u2019i dolara kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Bankalar, ticari \u015firketler, bireyler, herkes dolar kabul ediyor; dolar bankada, kasada, yast\u0131k alt\u0131nda ba\u015fk\u00f6\u015fede yer buluyor.<\/span>
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Bu, ABD i\u00e7in birka\u00e7 kuru\u015f maliyetle bas\u0131lan ka\u011f\u0131t para kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ek mal ve hizmetler alma imkan\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bu, ki\u015filerin, \u015firketlerin, bankalar\u0131n, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6deme i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in ABD finansal sisteminde kaynak tutmalar\u0131, bu \u00fclkeye ucuz kaynak aktarmalar\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu, ABD ile hi\u00e7bir ili\u015fkisi olmayan mal ve hizmet al\u0131m sat\u0131m\u0131, bor\u00e7 al\u0131p verme, d\u00f6viz al\u0131m sat\u0131m\u0131 i\u015flemlerinin ABD bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi \u00fczerinden, bu sisteme gelir sa\u011flayarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
SWAP ANLA\u015eMALARI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
\u00d6te yandan k\u00fcresel ticaret ve finans i\u015flemlerinin merkezinde yer almas\u0131, d\u00fcnyay\u0131 ABD ekonomisinin durumuna \u00e7ok hassas k\u0131l\u0131yor; zaman zaman, 2008 k\u00fcresel krizinde ve son olarak Covid-19 krizinde oldu\u011fu gibi dolar likiditesi kuruyor, di\u011fer \u00fclke ekonomileri olumsuz etkileniyor. Bu durumlarda ABD swap i\u015flemleri ile piyasaya d\u00f6viz sa\u011fl\u0131yorsa da bu herkes i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli olmuyor. Bu arada, swap i\u015flemlerinin \u00f6demeler dengesi sorunlar\u0131 de\u011fil, ge\u00e7ici likidite sorunlar\u0131na \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. Son Covid s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin swap olana\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Japonya, b\u00fcy\u00fck cari fazlas\u0131 olan, \u00c7in\u2019den sonra en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6viz rezervlerine sahip bir \u00fclke. <\/span>
Dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel ticaret ve finans i\u015flemlerinin merkezinde yer almas\u0131, ABD\u2019ye bunu bir silah olarak kullanma imkan\u0131 da veriyor. ABD y\u00f6netimleri belli \u00fclke, ki\u015fi ve kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ABD \u00f6deme sisteminden yararlanmas\u0131n\u0131 yasaklayabiliyor. D\u00fcnya ticari ve finansal \u00f6demelerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc bu sistem \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7ti\u011finden, bu, yasaklanan i\u00e7in ticari varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na son verebilecek bir darbe olu\u015fturuyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u00c7in, dolar\u0131n bu ayr\u0131cal\u0131kl\u0131 konumuna kar\u015f\u0131, 2008 krizinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan dolar likidite sorunundan sonra tav\u0131r ald\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmelerden sonra \u00c7inli yetkililer ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n yerini, IMF\u2019nin \u00d6zel \u00c7ekme Haklar\u0131 t\u00fcr\u00fcnde uluslararas\u0131 nitelikte bir \u00f6deme arac\u0131n\u0131n almas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00f6nerileri s\u0131kl\u0131kla dile getirir oldu. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u00fclke paras\u0131 RMB\u2019nin de uluslararas\u0131 kabul g\u00f6ren bir para olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu do\u011frultuda, RMB ile ihracat-ithalat serbest b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131, Hong Kong\u2019da bir paralel RMB finansal sistemi kuruldu, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ve sermaye hareketlerinin serbestle\u015ftirilmesi, finans piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n yabanc\u0131lara a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00f6nemli ad\u0131mlar at\u0131ld\u0131 ve at\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ayr\u0131ca, T\u00fcrkiye de dahil bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkeye swap anla\u015fmalar\u0131 ile RMB kaynak sa\u011fland\u0131. Bu \u00e7abalarla RMB tek haneli y\u00fczdelerle uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6demelerdeki pay\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00fcnyada 5. s\u0131raya geldiyse de hen\u00fcz yolun ba\u015f\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z D\u0130J\u0130TAL PARADA<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Trump y\u00f6netimi d\u00f6neminde dolar\u0131n silah olarak kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131kla\u015fmas\u0131 ve bunun kendisi i\u00e7in de s\u00f6z konusu olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019i dolars\u0131z uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6deme sistemi aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekmi\u015f bulunuyor. Bu do\u011frultuda \u00c7in, dolar yerine ulusal paralarla ticaret ve finansman sa\u011flama y\u00f6n\u00fcnde BRICS Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 ve Shanghai \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc gibi olu\u015fumlar yan\u0131nda ikili anla\u015fmalar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde giri\u015fimlerde bulunuyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Rusya ile 2019\u2019da iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ticaretin \u00fclke paralar\u0131 ile yap\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir anla\u015fma yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131llarda iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ticaretin y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131 dolar ile yap\u0131l\u0131rken, 2020\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde bu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi\u011fi, ama Euro \u00f6demelerin de y\u00fczde 30\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00f6demelerin y\u00fczde 24\u2019\u00fcn\u00fcn de \u00fclke paralar\u0131yla oldu\u011fu bildiriliyor. \u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ticaretin hemen hemen dengede olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00fclke paralar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flaman\u0131n g\u00f6receli kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde giri\u015fimin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/span>
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ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n konumu kolay ve \u00e7abuk de\u011fi\u015fecek g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu alanda son s\u00f6z\u00fc belki teknoloji ve dijital paralar s\u00f6yleyecek.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dolarin-ayricaligi-ve-cin","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Dolar\u0131n ayr\u0131cal\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00c7in","meta_description":"Fatih Oktay","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1064,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":2,"name":"FAT\u0130H","surname":"OKTAY","email":"ozansoy.tuna@akay.com","slug":"fatih-oktay","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600qSRn7kb3ZZVHU3t.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":22777,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":22678,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Dolar\u0131n ayr\u0131cal\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00c7in","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

Fatih Oktay<\/strong><\/span>
<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fcnyada, bir zamanlar\u0131n Frans\u0131z Maliye Bakan\u0131 Val\u00e9ry Giscard d\u2019Estaing\u2019\u0131n \u2018fahi\u015f ayr\u0131cal\u0131k\u2019 olarak niteledi\u011fi, herkes taraf\u0131ndan kabul edilmesinden kaynaklanan \u00f6zel bir konumu var. ABD\u2019nin \u00f6demeler dengesi gibi bir sorunu yok; \u00fclkede yerle\u015fikler d\u00fcnyadan kendi paralar\u0131 ile mal ithal edebiliyorlar. ABD ile hi\u00e7bir ili\u015fkisi olmayan \u00fclkelerin insanlar\u0131 da birbirlerinden mal al\u0131rken s\u0131kl\u0131kla dolar \u00fczerinden fiyat verip \u00f6deme yap\u0131yorlar. ABD d\u00fcnya ihracat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 8, ithalat\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 12\u2019sini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftiriyor ama d\u00fcnya d\u0131\u015f ticaret \u00f6demelerinin yar\u0131s\u0131 dolar \u00fczerinden yap\u0131l\u0131yor. ABD ile ili\u015fkisi olsun, olmas\u0131n, d\u00fcnyadaki \u00fclkeler aras\u0131 bor\u00e7 al\u0131\u015fveri\u015finin de yar\u0131s\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 \u00fczerinden yap\u0131l\u0131yor. D\u00fcnya merkez bankalar\u0131, rezervlerinin yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131n\u0131 ABD dolar\u0131 olarak tutuyor. D\u00fcnyadaki d\u00f6viz al\u0131\u015fveri\u015flerinin y\u00fczde 85\u2019i dolara kar\u015f\u0131 yap\u0131l\u0131yor. Bankalar, ticari \u015firketler, bireyler, herkes dolar kabul ediyor; dolar bankada, kasada, yast\u0131k alt\u0131nda ba\u015fk\u00f6\u015fede yer buluyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
Bu, ABD i\u00e7in birka\u00e7 kuru\u015f maliyetle bas\u0131lan ka\u011f\u0131t para kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ek mal ve hizmetler alma imkan\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. Bu, ki\u015filerin, \u015firketlerin, bankalar\u0131n, merkez bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6deme i\u015flemleri i\u00e7in ABD finansal sisteminde kaynak tutmalar\u0131, bu \u00fclkeye ucuz kaynak aktarmalar\u0131 anlam\u0131na geliyor. Bu, ABD ile hi\u00e7bir ili\u015fkisi olmayan mal ve hizmet al\u0131m sat\u0131m\u0131, bor\u00e7 al\u0131p verme, d\u00f6viz al\u0131m sat\u0131m\u0131 i\u015flemlerinin ABD bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi \u00fczerinden, bu sisteme gelir sa\u011flayarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilmesi anlam\u0131na geliyor.<\/span>
<\/strong><\/span>
SWAP ANLA\u015eMALARI<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
\u00d6te yandan k\u00fcresel ticaret ve finans i\u015flemlerinin merkezinde yer almas\u0131, d\u00fcnyay\u0131 ABD ekonomisinin durumuna \u00e7ok hassas k\u0131l\u0131yor; zaman zaman, 2008 k\u00fcresel krizinde ve son olarak Covid-19 krizinde oldu\u011fu gibi dolar likiditesi kuruyor, di\u011fer \u00fclke ekonomileri olumsuz etkileniyor. Bu durumlarda ABD swap i\u015flemleri ile piyasaya d\u00f6viz sa\u011fl\u0131yorsa da bu herkes i\u00e7in ge\u00e7erli olmuyor. Bu arada, swap i\u015flemlerinin \u00f6demeler dengesi sorunlar\u0131 de\u011fil, ge\u00e7ici likidite sorunlar\u0131na \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm oldu\u011funu hat\u0131rlatal\u0131m. Son Covid s\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131nda ABD\u2019nin swap olana\u011f\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Japonya, b\u00fcy\u00fck cari fazlas\u0131 olan, \u00c7in\u2019den sonra en b\u00fcy\u00fck d\u00f6viz rezervlerine sahip bir \u00fclke. <\/span>
Dolar\u0131n k\u00fcresel ticaret ve finans i\u015flemlerinin merkezinde yer almas\u0131, ABD\u2019ye bunu bir silah olarak kullanma imkan\u0131 da veriyor. ABD y\u00f6netimleri belli \u00fclke, ki\u015fi ve kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ABD \u00f6deme sisteminden yararlanmas\u0131n\u0131 yasaklayabiliyor. D\u00fcnya ticari ve finansal \u00f6demelerinin b\u00fcy\u00fck b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc bu sistem \u00fczerinden ge\u00e7ti\u011finden, bu, yasaklanan i\u00e7in ticari varl\u0131\u011f\u0131na son verebilecek bir darbe olu\u015fturuyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
\u00c7in, dolar\u0131n bu ayr\u0131cal\u0131kl\u0131 konumuna kar\u015f\u0131, 2008 krizinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan dolar likidite sorunundan sonra tav\u0131r ald\u0131. Bu geli\u015fmelerden sonra \u00c7inli yetkililer ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n yerini, IMF\u2019nin \u00d6zel \u00c7ekme Haklar\u0131 t\u00fcr\u00fcnde uluslararas\u0131 nitelikte bir \u00f6deme arac\u0131n\u0131n almas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00f6nerileri s\u0131kl\u0131kla dile getirir oldu. Ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde \u00fclke paras\u0131 RMB\u2019nin de uluslararas\u0131 kabul g\u00f6ren bir para olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu do\u011frultuda, RMB ile ihracat-ithalat serbest b\u0131rak\u0131ld\u0131, Hong Kong\u2019da bir paralel RMB finansal sistemi kuruldu, d\u00f6viz piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n ve sermaye hareketlerinin serbestle\u015ftirilmesi, finans piyasalar\u0131n\u0131n yabanc\u0131lara a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde \u00f6nemli ad\u0131mlar at\u0131ld\u0131 ve at\u0131l\u0131yor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede ayr\u0131ca, T\u00fcrkiye de dahil bir\u00e7ok \u00fclkeye swap anla\u015fmalar\u0131 ile RMB kaynak sa\u011fland\u0131. Bu \u00e7abalarla RMB tek haneli y\u00fczdelerle uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6demelerdeki pay\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan d\u00fcnyada 5. s\u0131raya geldiyse de hen\u00fcz yolun ba\u015f\u0131nda bulunuyor.<\/span>
<\/span>
SON S\u00d6Z D\u0130J\u0130TAL PARADA<\/strong><\/span>
<\/span>
Trump y\u00f6netimi d\u00f6neminde dolar\u0131n silah olarak kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131kla\u015fmas\u0131 ve bunun kendisi i\u00e7in de s\u00f6z konusu olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019i dolars\u0131z uluslararas\u0131 \u00f6deme sistemi aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekmi\u015f bulunuyor. Bu do\u011frultuda \u00c7in, dolar yerine ulusal paralarla ticaret ve finansman sa\u011flama y\u00f6n\u00fcnde BRICS Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131 ve Shanghai \u0130\u015fbirli\u011fi \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc gibi olu\u015fumlar yan\u0131nda ikili anla\u015fmalar \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde giri\u015fimlerde bulunuyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Rusya ile 2019\u2019da iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ticaretin \u00fclke paralar\u0131 ile yap\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde bir anla\u015fma yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131llarda iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ticaretin y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131 dolar ile yap\u0131l\u0131rken, 2020\u2019nin ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde bu oran\u0131n y\u00fczde 50\u2019nin alt\u0131na indi\u011fi, ama Euro \u00f6demelerin de y\u00fczde 30\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131, \u00f6demelerin y\u00fczde 24\u2019\u00fcn\u00fcn de \u00fclke paralar\u0131yla oldu\u011fu bildiriliyor. \u0130ki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ticaretin hemen hemen dengede olmas\u0131 nedeniyle \u00fclke paralar\u0131n\u0131n kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flaman\u0131n g\u00f6receli kolayl\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde giri\u015fimin ba\u015far\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n hen\u00fcz s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 oldu\u011fu s\u00f6ylenebilir.<\/span>
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ABD dolar\u0131n\u0131n konumu kolay ve \u00e7abuk de\u011fi\u015fecek g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Bu alanda son s\u00f6z\u00fc belki teknoloji ve dijital paralar s\u00f6yleyecek.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"dolarin-ayricaligi-ve-cin","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Dolar\u0131n ayr\u0131cal\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve \u00c7in","meta_description":"Fatih Oktay","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1064,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}