{"status":true,"post":{"id":67441,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":0,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2025-05-16 10:33:00","created_at":"2025-05-16T07:33:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2025-05-16T07:33:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2025-05-16 10:33:00","source_id":null,"post_id":67441,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u0131\u015far\u0131da tarifeler, i\u00e7eride ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemleri izleniyor","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":"D\u0131\u015far\u0131da tarifeler, i\u00e7eride ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemleri izleniyor","sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"

Reel sekt\u00f6r d\u0131\u015far\u0131da tarifeleri ve olas\u0131 etkilerini, i\u00e7eri de ise merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemlerini izliyor. Geli\u015fmeleri ve beklentileri de\u011ferlendirelim. <\/strong><\/p>


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1. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u00f6nemli yava\u015flama beklentisi
<\/strong>ABD\u2019de yeni y\u00f6netim ithalatta tarife program\u0131n\u0131 2 Nisan\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Tarifeler, oran ve uygulanacak \u00fclke say\u0131s\u0131 olarak beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde geldi. ABD, 9 Nisan\u2019da ise \u00c7in haricindeki \u00fclkelere olan tarife uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 90 g\u00fcn ask\u0131ya ald\u0131 ve t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerle m\u00fczakere s\u00fcreci ba\u015flatt\u0131. M\u00fczakereler sonras\u0131 her \u00fclke i\u00e7in nihai tarife uygulamalar\u0131 belirlenmi\u015f olacak. Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar, a\u00e7\u0131klanan tariflere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak d\u00fcnya ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini ocak ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 2.8\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.3\u2019e indirdi. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yava\u015flayacak. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

2. Tarifelere ba\u011fl\u0131 4 daralma senaryosu
<\/strong>ABD, t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerle ticaret m\u00fczakereleri yaparak temmuz ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda nihai tarifeleri olu\u015fturmay\u0131 hedefliyor. A\u00e7\u0131klanan tarifelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yap\u0131lan tahminler 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, nisan ay\u0131 raporunda 4 ayr\u0131 daralma senaryosu hesaplad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re tarifelerin sadece ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde mal ticaretinde daralma y\u00fczde 0.5 olarak hesapland\u0131. Tarifelerin daha \u00e7ok \u00fclkeyi kapsamas\u0131 ve bu \u00fclkelerin de kar\u015f\u0131 tarifeler uygulamas\u0131 halinde d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde daralma y\u00fczde 4.3\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilecek. Bu oranlar miktar baz\u0131nda ve de\u011fer olarak daralmay\u0131 tahmin etmek olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7 oluyor. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

3. Faiz indirimleri beklentisi art\u0131yor\u00a0
<\/strong>ABD\u2019nin ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 sonucu para politikalar\u0131nda faiz indirimi beklentileri giderek art\u0131yor. Ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 yava\u015flama\/resesyon etkileriyle enflasyon etkileri \u00f6nceliklendirilerek faiz indirimi beklentileri olu\u015fuyor. Buna g\u00f6re finansal piyasalar ilk olarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 resesyon riski kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda 3-4 faiz indirimi yapabilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 da faiz indirimlerine devam edecek. Banka nisan ay\u0131nda politika faizini y\u00fczde 2.4\u2019e indirdi. Gerileyen enflasyonun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 uygun ko\u015fullar i\u00e7inde Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.0\u2019nin de alt\u0131na indirebilecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


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4. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ve TL\u2019ye destek \u00f6nlemleri
<\/strong>T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n temel \u00f6nceli\u011fi, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131nda de\u011fer ve d\u00f6viz rezervleri kayb\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek haline geldi. Merkez Bankas\u0131, nisan ay\u0131nda politika faizini y\u00fczde 46\u2019ya ve gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 49\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 fonlama maliyeti yeniden y\u00fckseldi. Merkez Bankas\u0131, may\u0131s ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda ise d\u00f6viz mevduatlar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131, ihracat gelirlerinin merkez bankas\u0131na bozdurulma oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 35\u2019e y\u00fckseltti ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131lara \u00f6denen prim oran\u0131n\u0131 da y\u00fczde 2\u2019den y\u00fczde 3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu \u00f6nlemleriyle TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 ve d\u00f6vize olan talebi \u00f6nlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n may\u0131s ay\u0131nda toplant\u0131s\u0131 bulunmuyor. Buna ra\u011fmen bayrama kadar s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Son S\u00f6z: Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemlerine dayanabilmesi i\u00e7in uygun finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131 sa\u011flanmal\u0131<\/p>","slug":"disarida-tarifeler-iceride-ilave-sikilasma-onlemleri-izleniyor","tags":null,"meta_title":"D\u0131\u015far\u0131da tarifeler, i\u00e7eride ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemleri izleniyor","meta_description":"Reel sekt\u00f6r d\u0131\u015far\u0131da tarifeleri ve olas\u0131 etkilerini, i\u00e7eri de ise merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemlerini izliyor. Geli\u015fmeleri ve beklentileri de\u011ferlendirelim.","meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1747342800ntNRDlz6998QFCf.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":0,"cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/1200x675\/disarida-tarifeler-iceride-ilave-sikilasma-onlemleri-izleniyor_1200x675_x7W71wSUIv.webp","user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":67573,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":67441,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u0131\u015far\u0131da tarifeler, i\u00e7eride ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemleri izleniyor","home_title":"D\u0131\u015far\u0131da tarifeler, i\u00e7eride ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemleri izleniyor","sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"

Reel sekt\u00f6r d\u0131\u015far\u0131da tarifeleri ve olas\u0131 etkilerini, i\u00e7eri de ise merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemlerini izliyor. Geli\u015fmeleri ve beklentileri de\u011ferlendirelim. <\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

1. D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde \u00f6nemli yava\u015flama beklentisi
<\/strong>ABD\u2019de yeni y\u00f6netim ithalatta tarife program\u0131n\u0131 2 Nisan\u2019da a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Tarifeler, oran ve uygulanacak \u00fclke say\u0131s\u0131 olarak beklentilerin olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde geldi. ABD, 9 Nisan\u2019da ise \u00c7in haricindeki \u00fclkelere olan tarife uygulamas\u0131n\u0131 90 g\u00fcn ask\u0131ya ald\u0131 ve t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerle m\u00fczakere s\u00fcreci ba\u015flatt\u0131. M\u00fczakereler sonras\u0131 her \u00fclke i\u00e7in nihai tarife uygulamalar\u0131 belirlenmi\u015f olacak. Uluslararas\u0131 kurumlar, a\u00e7\u0131klanan tariflere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak d\u00fcnya ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131 d\u00fcnya ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini ocak ay\u0131ndaki y\u00fczde 2.8\u2019de y\u00fczde 2.3\u2019e indirdi. D\u00fcnya ekonomisi \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yava\u015flayacak. \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

2. Tarifelere ba\u011fl\u0131 4 daralma senaryosu
<\/strong>ABD, t\u00fcm \u00fclkelerle ticaret m\u00fczakereleri yaparak temmuz ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda nihai tarifeleri olu\u015fturmay\u0131 hedefliyor. A\u00e7\u0131klanan tarifelere ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak yap\u0131lan tahminler 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinin daralaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc, nisan ay\u0131 raporunda 4 ayr\u0131 daralma senaryosu hesaplad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re tarifelerin sadece ABD ile \u00c7in aras\u0131nda kalmas\u0131 halinde mal ticaretinde daralma y\u00fczde 0.5 olarak hesapland\u0131. Tarifelerin daha \u00e7ok \u00fclkeyi kapsamas\u0131 ve bu \u00fclkelerin de kar\u015f\u0131 tarifeler uygulamas\u0131 halinde d\u00fcnya mal ticaretinde daralma y\u00fczde 4.3\u2019e kadar \u00e7\u0131kabilecek. Bu oranlar miktar baz\u0131nda ve de\u011fer olarak daralmay\u0131 tahmin etmek olduk\u00e7a g\u00fc\u00e7 oluyor. \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


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3. Faiz indirimleri beklentisi art\u0131yor\u00a0
<\/strong>ABD\u2019nin ba\u015flatt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131 sonucu para politikalar\u0131nda faiz indirimi beklentileri giderek art\u0131yor. Ticaret sava\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n olas\u0131 yava\u015flama\/resesyon etkileriyle enflasyon etkileri \u00f6nceliklendirilerek faiz indirimi beklentileri olu\u015fuyor. Buna g\u00f6re finansal piyasalar ilk olarak ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n olas\u0131 resesyon riski kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda 3-4 faiz indirimi yapabilece\u011fini fiyatl\u0131yor. Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 da faiz indirimlerine devam edecek. Banka nisan ay\u0131nda politika faizini y\u00fczde 2.4\u2019e indirdi. Gerileyen enflasyonun yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 uygun ko\u015fullar i\u00e7inde Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 y\u0131l sonuna kadar faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 2.0\u2019nin de alt\u0131na indirebilecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

4. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019ndan ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ve TL\u2019ye destek \u00f6nlemleri
<\/strong>T.C. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n temel \u00f6nceli\u011fi, T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131nda de\u011fer ve d\u00f6viz rezervleri kayb\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6nlemek haline geldi. Merkez Bankas\u0131, nisan ay\u0131nda politika faizini y\u00fczde 46\u2019ya ve gecelik bor\u00e7 verme faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 ise y\u00fczde 49\u2019a \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n piyasalar\u0131 fonlama maliyeti yeniden y\u00fckseldi. Merkez Bankas\u0131, may\u0131s ay\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131nda ise d\u00f6viz mevduatlar\u0131n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131k oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rd\u0131, ihracat gelirlerinin merkez bankas\u0131na bozdurulma oran\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fczde 35\u2019e y\u00fckseltti ve ihracat\u00e7\u0131lara \u00f6denen prim oran\u0131n\u0131 da y\u00fczde 2\u2019den y\u00fczde 3\u2019e \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131. Merkez Bankas\u0131 bu \u00f6nlemleriyle TL\u2019de de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131 ve d\u00f6vize olan talebi \u00f6nlemeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facak. Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n may\u0131s ay\u0131nda toplant\u0131s\u0131 bulunmuyor. Buna ra\u011fmen bayrama kadar s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrecek.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Son S\u00f6z: Reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemlerine dayanabilmesi i\u00e7in uygun finansman ko\u015fullar\u0131 sa\u011flanmal\u0131<\/p>","slug":"disarida-tarifeler-iceride-ilave-sikilasma-onlemleri-izleniyor","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1747342800ntNRDlz6998QFCf.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1747342800ntNRDlz6998QFCf.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/638x552\/disarida-tarifeler-iceride-ilave-sikilasma-onlemleri-izleniyor_638x552_iJaD6HO1mo.webp","cropped_310x208":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/310x208\/disarida-tarifeler-iceride-ilave-sikilasma-onlemleri-izleniyor_310x208_bsfUoaSCtf.webp","cropped_416x247":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/416x247\/disarida-tarifeler-iceride-ilave-sikilasma-onlemleri-izleniyor_416x247_YOqUeNOyLY.webp","cropped_197x247":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/197x247\/disarida-tarifeler-iceride-ilave-sikilasma-onlemleri-izleniyor_197x247_c9oMcu497x.webp","cropped_416x600":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/416x600\/disarida-tarifeler-iceride-ilave-sikilasma-onlemleri-izleniyor_416x600_kNCLBlpa5k.webp","cropped_1200x675":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/1200x675\/disarida-tarifeler-iceride-ilave-sikilasma-onlemleri-izleniyor_1200x675_x7W71wSUIv.webp","tags":null,"meta_title":"D\u0131\u015far\u0131da tarifeler, i\u00e7eride ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemleri izleniyor","meta_description":"Reel sekt\u00f6r d\u0131\u015far\u0131da tarifeleri ve olas\u0131 etkilerini, i\u00e7eri de ise merkez bankas\u0131n\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 ilave s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6nlemlerini izliyor. Geli\u015fmeleri ve beklentileri de\u011ferlendirelim.","meta_keywords":null,"view_count":0,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/358x214\/disarida-tarifeler-iceride-ilave-sikilasma-onlemleri-izleniyor_358x214_BNJHeE34lc.webp","cropped_842x474":"\/front\/uploads\/haber\/842x474\/disarida-tarifeler-iceride-ilave-sikilasma-onlemleri-izleniyor_842x474_YQXPoQeS41.webp"}]}}