{"status":true,"post":{"id":51023,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-04-22 08:26:00","created_at":"2024-04-22T05:26:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-04-22T05:26:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":51023,"is_featured":0,"title":"D\u0131\u015f ticaret endeks verisi ne sinyaller veriyor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu, \u015eubat 2024 d\u0131\u015f ticaret endeks verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu b\u00fcltene g\u00f6re; ihracat birim de\u011fer endeksi \u015fubat ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 4.3 azald\u0131. Endeks bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek ve t\u00fct\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 0.2, hammaddelerde (yak\u0131t hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 8.4, yak\u0131tlarda y\u00fczde 6.9 ve imalat sanayinde (g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek, t\u00fct\u00fcn hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 4.3 azald\u0131. Bu verilere g\u00f6re, firmalar\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak g\u0131dan\u0131n i\u00e7erisinde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 grupta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f hemen hemen yok denecek kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken, yak\u0131t hari\u00e7 hammaddelerde y\u00fczde 8.4 ve imalat sanayinde (g\u0131da hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 4.3 azalma, enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc konusunda da umut veriyor. Pahal\u0131 ihracat ve ihracatta art\u0131\u015f, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyata i\u00e7 piyasa sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 imkans\u0131z k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak ihracat birim de\u011ferinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, i\u00e7 piyasada da fiyatlarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

GIDA \u0130HRACATINDA ARTI\u015e<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130hracat birim de\u011fer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, ayn\u0131 zamanda ciro d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc anlam\u0131na da gelebilir. O y\u00fczden miktar baz\u0131nda hareketlere de bakmam\u0131z gerekiyor. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda ihracat miktar endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 18.6 oran\u0131nda artm\u0131\u015f. Bu durumda birim de\u011ferinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen ihracat miktar endeksindeki daha fazla art\u0131\u015f, ciroda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn hissedilmemesine neden olmu\u015f. Daha detaya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, g\u0131da grubunda miktar baz\u0131nda ihracat\u0131n y\u00fczde 32.2 artmas\u0131 son derece \u00f6nemli. G\u0131da \u00fcretiminin bu oranda artmamas\u0131 durumunda g\u0131da ihracat\u0131 i\u00e7 piyasaya verilecek \u00fcr\u00fcn pay\u0131ndan al\u0131narak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f diyebiliriz. O zaman i\u00e7 piyasada g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131yla dengelenene kadar artmaya devam edebilir. Kald\u0131 ki, yak\u0131t hari\u00e7 hammadde miktar endeksi y\u00fczde 22.2, yak\u0131tlarda y\u00fczde 60 ve imalat sanayinde (g\u0131da grubu hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 14.7 artarak, i\u00e7 piyasaya ayr\u0131lan pay\u0131n azalma riskini de bize g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durumda fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi ihtimali de azal\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u0130THALATLA KAPATILAB\u0130L\u0130R M\u0130?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi g\u0131da ihracat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ithalatla kapatabiliyor muyuz, ona bakal\u0131m. G\u0131da grubunda ithalat birim de\u011feri y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3.1 azal\u0131rken, ayn\u0131 grubun ithalat miktar endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 6.4 azalm\u0131\u015f. Yani ihracatta \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015flar varken, ithalat\u0131nda ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00f6z konusu. Do\u011fal olarak i\u00e7 piyasada fiyatlar ihra\u00e7 \u00fclkeleriyle e\u015fitlenene kadar artma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle hammadde (yak\u0131t hari\u00e7) ithalat miktar endeksinde y\u00fczde 19 art\u0131\u015f, birim de\u011ferinde y\u00fczde 4.1 azal\u0131\u015fla beraber i\u00e7 piyasada maliyetlerde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130thalat toplam arz\u0131 art\u0131ran bir unsur olarak birim de\u011ferde y\u00fczde 5.9 oran\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe paralel fiyatlarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131lar olu\u015ftururken, ihracat toplam talebi art\u0131ran ve bu nedenle i\u00e7 piyasada k\u0131tl\u0131k olu\u015fmas\u0131na neden olabilecek bir geli\u015fmedir. Hele i\u00e7 piyasaya ayr\u0131lan pay\u0131n ihra\u00e7 edilmesi, hedef \u00fclkelerdeki fiyatlara yak\u0131nsama anlam\u0131na geliyor. O zaman enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc zorla\u015f\u0131yor. \u015eimdilik ithalata y\u00f6nelik veriler g\u0131da hari\u00e7 enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne destek verecek olsa da g\u0131dada ihracat ve ithalat birim de\u011fer ve miktar endeksleri enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 mahiyette de\u011fildir. Bu nedenle de gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 daha fazla bozulan ve Euro baz\u0131nda \u00fccretlerin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu \u00fclkemizde hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 kendini bir s\u00fcre daha hissettirmeye devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"dis-ticaret-endeks-verisi-ne-sinyaller-veriyor","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1713733200AfQRdO8sFcbOcya.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":5929,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":51149,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":51023,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"D\u0131\u015f ticaret endeks verisi ne sinyaller veriyor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu, \u015eubat 2024 d\u0131\u015f ticaret endeks verilerini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. S\u00f6z konusu b\u00fcltene g\u00f6re; ihracat birim de\u011fer endeksi \u015fubat ay\u0131nda bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 4.3 azald\u0131. Endeks bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek ve t\u00fct\u00fcnde y\u00fczde 0.2, hammaddelerde (yak\u0131t hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 8.4, yak\u0131tlarda y\u00fczde 6.9 ve imalat sanayinde (g\u0131da, i\u00e7ecek, t\u00fct\u00fcn hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 4.3 azald\u0131. Bu verilere g\u00f6re, firmalar\u0131n sat\u0131\u015f fiyatlar\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bir bask\u0131 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ancak g\u0131dan\u0131n i\u00e7erisinde yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 grupta d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f hemen hemen yok denecek kadar d\u00fc\u015f\u00fckken, yak\u0131t hari\u00e7 hammaddelerde y\u00fczde 8.4 ve imalat sanayinde (g\u0131da hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 4.3 azalma, enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc konusunda da umut veriyor. Pahal\u0131 ihracat ve ihracatta art\u0131\u015f, d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck fiyata i\u00e7 piyasa sat\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 imkans\u0131z k\u0131l\u0131yor. Ancak ihracat birim de\u011ferinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f, i\u00e7 piyasada da fiyatlarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

GIDA \u0130HRACATINDA ARTI\u015e<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130hracat birim de\u011fer d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, ayn\u0131 zamanda ciro d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc anlam\u0131na da gelebilir. O y\u00fczden miktar baz\u0131nda hareketlere de bakmam\u0131z gerekiyor. \u015eubat ay\u0131nda ihracat miktar endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 18.6 oran\u0131nda artm\u0131\u015f. Bu durumda birim de\u011ferinde d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ra\u011fmen ihracat miktar endeksindeki daha fazla art\u0131\u015f, ciroda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn hissedilmemesine neden olmu\u015f. Daha detaya bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, g\u0131da grubunda miktar baz\u0131nda ihracat\u0131n y\u00fczde 32.2 artmas\u0131 son derece \u00f6nemli. G\u0131da \u00fcretiminin bu oranda artmamas\u0131 durumunda g\u0131da ihracat\u0131 i\u00e7 piyasaya verilecek \u00fcr\u00fcn pay\u0131ndan al\u0131narak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015f diyebiliriz. O zaman i\u00e7 piyasada g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131yla dengelenene kadar artmaya devam edebilir. Kald\u0131 ki, yak\u0131t hari\u00e7 hammadde miktar endeksi y\u00fczde 22.2, yak\u0131tlarda y\u00fczde 60 ve imalat sanayinde (g\u0131da grubu hari\u00e7) y\u00fczde 14.7 artarak, i\u00e7 piyasaya ayr\u0131lan pay\u0131n azalma riskini de bize g\u00f6steriyor. Bu durumda fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesi ihtimali de azal\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u0130THALATLA KAPATILAB\u0130L\u0130R M\u0130?<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u015eimdi g\u0131da ihracat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ithalatla kapatabiliyor muyuz, ona bakal\u0131m. G\u0131da grubunda ithalat birim de\u011feri y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3.1 azal\u0131rken, ayn\u0131 grubun ithalat miktar endeksi y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 6.4 azalm\u0131\u015f. Yani ihracatta \u00f6nemli art\u0131\u015flar varken, ithalat\u0131nda ise d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00f6z konusu. Do\u011fal olarak i\u00e7 piyasada fiyatlar ihra\u00e7 \u00fclkeleriyle e\u015fitlenene kadar artma riski ta\u015f\u0131yor. Bunun d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle hammadde (yak\u0131t hari\u00e7) ithalat miktar endeksinde y\u00fczde 19 art\u0131\u015f, birim de\u011ferinde y\u00fczde 4.1 azal\u0131\u015fla beraber i\u00e7 piyasada maliyetlerde a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131 olu\u015fturacak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u0130thalat toplam arz\u0131 art\u0131ran bir unsur olarak birim de\u011ferde y\u00fczde 5.9 oran\u0131ndaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe paralel fiyatlarda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc bask\u0131lar olu\u015ftururken, ihracat toplam talebi art\u0131ran ve bu nedenle i\u00e7 piyasada k\u0131tl\u0131k olu\u015fmas\u0131na neden olabilecek bir geli\u015fmedir. Hele i\u00e7 piyasaya ayr\u0131lan pay\u0131n ihra\u00e7 edilmesi, hedef \u00fclkelerdeki fiyatlara yak\u0131nsama anlam\u0131na geliyor. O zaman enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fc zorla\u015f\u0131yor. \u015eimdilik ithalata y\u00f6nelik veriler g\u0131da hari\u00e7 enflasyon d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne destek verecek olsa da g\u0131dada ihracat ve ithalat birim de\u011fer ve miktar endeksleri enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc kolayla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 mahiyette de\u011fildir. Bu nedenle de gelir da\u011f\u0131l\u0131m\u0131 daha fazla bozulan ve Euro baz\u0131nda \u00fccretlerin daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011fu \u00fclkemizde hayat pahal\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 kendini bir s\u00fcre daha hissettirmeye devam edecek gibi g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"dis-ticaret-endeks-verisi-ne-sinyaller-veriyor","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1713733200AfQRdO8sFcbOcya.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1713733200AfQRdO8sFcbOcya.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":5929,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}