{"status":true,"post":{"id":56478,"user_id":2,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-10-21 07:29:00","created_at":"2024-10-21T04:29:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-10-21T04:29:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":56478,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u00c7in\u2019in yeni ekonomiyi canland\u0131rma paketi","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","content":"

\u00c7in\u2019de a\u011fustos ay\u0131 verileri pek canl\u0131 bir ekonomiye i\u015faret etmiyordu. Eli kula\u011f\u0131nda olan 3. \u00e7eyrek verilerinin de \u00f6yle olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durumda ekonomi y\u00f6netiminden bir canland\u0131rma paketi gelmesi bekleniyordu; geldi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir\u00e7ok yorumcu olumsuz de\u011ferlendirse de a\u011fustos verileri \u00fcretim taraf\u0131nda \u00e7ok da k\u00f6t\u00fc bir resim \u00e7izmiyordu. Ayl\u0131k verilerde yaln\u0131z belli bir \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fin \u00fczerindeki, verilerini do\u011frudan \u00fclke istatistik b\u00fcrosu sistemine giren i\u015fletmeler kapsan\u0131yor. Bu verilere g\u00f6re, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc katma de\u011feri bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0.3 artm\u0131\u015fsa da y\u0131l\u0131n 8 ay\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6\u2019ya yak\u0131n olmu\u015ftu. Daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletmeler de kat\u0131l\u0131nca d\u00fc\u015fecek de olsa bu \u00e7ok da k\u00f6t\u00fc bir rakam de\u011fildi. Servis \u00fcretim indeksi ise bu sekt\u00f6rde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5\u2019in, yani \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin hedefledi\u011fi y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n biraz alt\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6steriyordu. Esas s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 talep taraf\u0131ndayd\u0131. Perakende t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 8 ay\u0131 i\u00e7in ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 8 ay\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 talebi de ancak bu oranda artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Talep taraf\u0131nda durumu kurtaran d\u0131\u015f talepti; ilk 8 ay\u0131n ihracat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 7 dolay\u0131nda olmu\u015ftu. \u0130lk 8 ayda t\u00fcketici fiyat indeksinde sadece y\u00fczde 0.2 art\u0131\u015f, \u00fcretici fiyat endekslerinde ise y\u00fczde 2 dolay\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 da talep taraf\u0131nda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyordu.<\/span><\/p>

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PAKET\u0130N PARASAL B\u00d6L\u00dcM\u00dc<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

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Canland\u0131rma paketi par\u00e7a par\u00e7a ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6nce eyl\u00fcl sonlar\u0131nda paketin parasal b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm, mevduat munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131nda yar\u0131m puanl\u0131k indirim, politika faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.2 indirim, al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ev kredilerinin faiz oranlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.5 kadar indirim yan\u0131nda ikinci ev al\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki asgari pe\u015fin \u00f6deme tutar\u0131nda indirim i\u00e7eriyordu. Paket, ekonominin ba\u015f sorunu konut in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne destek i\u00e7in de bankalar\u0131n devlet \u015firketlerinin sat\u0131lamayan apartman dairelerini al\u0131p ucuz kiral\u0131k konuta d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme faaliyetleri i\u00e7in verdikleri kredilere sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 reeskont imkan\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletiyordu. \u00dclkenin hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in de pakette merkez bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan sa\u011flanacak, arac\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131n hisse senedi al\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in finansman sa\u011flayacak bir swap olana\u011f\u0131 ve bankalar\u0131n \u015firketlerin hisse senedi al\u0131mlar\u0131na finansman sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in kullanabilecekleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli kredi olana\u011f\u0131 vard\u0131. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalardan sonra \u00fclke hisse senedi borsalar\u0131nda y\u0131llard\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen y\u00fckseli\u015fler oldu. Konut piyasalar\u0131nda da ilk konut al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan \u00f6nemli bir canlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ancak ekonomiler darald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemindeki likiditeyi art\u0131rmak ve faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek etkili canland\u0131rma ara\u00e7lar\u0131 de\u011fildir. Konut finansman\u0131nda sa\u011flanan kolayl\u0131klar\u0131n da fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu bir ortamda ilk konut al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar canland\u0131rsa da talebi kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak art\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenmez. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla paketin parasal b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yeterli de\u011fildi; hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131ndaki co\u015fku, devam\u0131n\u0131n da mali tedbirlerle gelmesi beklentisiyleydi.<\/span><\/p>

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MERKEZ\u0130 Y\u00d6NET\u0130M\u0130N F\u0130NANSMAN G\u00dcC\u00dc<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde \u00fclkenin Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nca yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, beklenen paketin gelece\u011fini teyit ettiyse de i\u00e7eri\u011fini ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirsiz b\u0131rakt\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019de davul yerel y\u00f6netimlerin boynunda, tokmak merkezi y\u00f6netimdedir. Merkez; yerel y\u00f6netimlere Covid-19 gibi kriz durumlar\u0131, ekonomik, teknolojik ve sosyal geli\u015fme ile ilgili hedefler verir ama bu hedeflerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in gerekli kaynaklara fazla kar\u0131\u015fmaz. Bunlar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yerel y\u00f6netimlere b\u0131rak\u0131rken, onlar\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 da kotalarla s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Bunun sonucu olarak yerel y\u00f6netimlerin, \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmak \u00fczere b\u00fcy\u00fck ve artan boyutlarda borca sahip olmas\u0131, merkezin verdi\u011fi hedefleri yerine getirme olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 da giderek k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131yor. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, yerel y\u00f6netimlere art\u0131r\u0131lacak bor\u00e7lanma kotalar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak sat\u0131lmayan konutlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131p ucuz konutlara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme gibi ek g\u00f6revler y\u00fckleniyor. Ancak a\u00e7\u0131klamadan, \u015fimdiye kadar do\u011frudan bor\u00e7lanmayan merkezi y\u00f6netimin art\u0131k davulun y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc de k\u0131smen kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131, kendisi bor\u00e7lanarak yerel y\u00f6netimlerin bor\u00e7luluk d\u00fczeyini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek i\u015flevlerini daha etkili \u015fekilde yerine getirmelerini sa\u011flamaya y\u00f6nelece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Mali paketin i\u00e7eri\u011fi ve boyutlar\u0131 hen\u00fcz belli de\u011filse de bu paketin arkas\u0131nda merkezi y\u00f6netimin finansman g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn olaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

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Ancak bu, 2008 k\u00fcresel krizinde oldu\u011fu gibi dev bir canland\u0131rma paketi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. \u00dclke y\u00f6netimi, firmalar ve yerel y\u00f6netimlerin g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bor\u00e7luluk sorununun ard\u0131nda olan o t\u00fcr bir canland\u0131rmadan dikkatle ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131yor. \u00dclke y\u00f6netiminin hedefi, nas\u0131l olursa olsun bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme de\u011fil, teknoloji ve y\u00fcksek katma de\u011fere dayal\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme. Canland\u0131rma paketi i\u00e7in bi\u00e7ilen rol, sadece o geli\u015fme s\u00fcrecinde ge\u00e7ici olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 azaltmak.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

fatih@fatihoktay.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>","slug":"cinin-yeni-ekonomiyi-canlandirma-paketi","tags":null,"meta_title":"\u00c7in\u2019in yeni ekonomiyi canland\u0131rma paketi","meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1729458000LymaTqVSMBf1ZzV.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":361,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":2,"name":"FAT\u0130H","surname":"OKTAY","email":"ozansoy.tuna@akay.com","slug":"fatih-oktay","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600qSRn7kb3ZZVHU3t.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":56604,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":56478,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u00c7in\u2019in yeni ekonomiyi canland\u0131rma paketi","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","content":"

\u00c7in\u2019de a\u011fustos ay\u0131 verileri pek canl\u0131 bir ekonomiye i\u015faret etmiyordu. Eli kula\u011f\u0131nda olan 3. \u00e7eyrek verilerinin de \u00f6yle olaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu durumda ekonomi y\u00f6netiminden bir canland\u0131rma paketi gelmesi bekleniyordu; geldi.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir\u00e7ok yorumcu olumsuz de\u011ferlendirse de a\u011fustos verileri \u00fcretim taraf\u0131nda \u00e7ok da k\u00f6t\u00fc bir resim \u00e7izmiyordu. Ayl\u0131k verilerde yaln\u0131z belli bir \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fin \u00fczerindeki, verilerini do\u011frudan \u00fclke istatistik b\u00fcrosu sistemine giren i\u015fletmeler kapsan\u0131yor. Bu verilere g\u00f6re, sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fc katma de\u011feri bir \u00f6nceki aya g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 0.3 artm\u0131\u015fsa da y\u0131l\u0131n 8 ay\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f, bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 6\u2019ya yak\u0131n olmu\u015ftu. Daha k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck i\u015fletmeler de kat\u0131l\u0131nca d\u00fc\u015fecek de olsa bu \u00e7ok da k\u00f6t\u00fc bir rakam de\u011fildi. Servis \u00fcretim indeksi ise bu sekt\u00f6rde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 ay\u0131na g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 5\u2019in, yani \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin hedefledi\u011fi y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131n biraz alt\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6steriyordu. Esas s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 talep taraf\u0131ndayd\u0131. Perakende t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f\u0131, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 8 ay\u0131 i\u00e7in ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 3.4 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 8 ay\u0131ndaki yat\u0131r\u0131mlar, dolay\u0131s\u0131yla yat\u0131r\u0131m mallar\u0131 talebi de ancak bu oranda artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Talep taraf\u0131nda durumu kurtaran d\u0131\u015f talepti; ilk 8 ay\u0131n ihracat\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 7 dolay\u0131nda olmu\u015ftu. \u0130lk 8 ayda t\u00fcketici fiyat indeksinde sadece y\u00fczde 0.2 art\u0131\u015f, \u00fcretici fiyat endekslerinde ise y\u00fczde 2 dolay\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131 da talep taraf\u0131nda zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011fa i\u015faret ediyordu.<\/span><\/p>

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PAKET\u0130N PARASAL B\u00d6L\u00dcM\u00dc<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Canland\u0131rma paketi par\u00e7a par\u00e7a ortaya \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor. \u00d6nce eyl\u00fcl sonlar\u0131nda paketin parasal b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131kland\u0131. Bu b\u00f6l\u00fcm, mevduat munzam kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131nda yar\u0131m puanl\u0131k indirim, politika faiz oran\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.2 indirim, al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f ev kredilerinin faiz oranlar\u0131nda y\u00fczde 0.5 kadar indirim yan\u0131nda ikinci ev al\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki asgari pe\u015fin \u00f6deme tutar\u0131nda indirim i\u00e7eriyordu. Paket, ekonominin ba\u015f sorunu konut in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne destek i\u00e7in de bankalar\u0131n devlet \u015firketlerinin sat\u0131lamayan apartman dairelerini al\u0131p ucuz kiral\u0131k konuta d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme faaliyetleri i\u00e7in verdikleri kredilere sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 reeskont imkan\u0131n\u0131 geni\u015fletiyordu. \u00dclkenin hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131 i\u00e7in de pakette merkez bankas\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan sa\u011flanacak, arac\u0131 kurulu\u015flar\u0131n hisse senedi al\u0131mlar\u0131 i\u00e7in finansman sa\u011flayacak bir swap olana\u011f\u0131 ve bankalar\u0131n \u015firketlerin hisse senedi al\u0131mlar\u0131na finansman sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in kullanabilecekleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck faizli kredi olana\u011f\u0131 vard\u0131. Bu a\u00e7\u0131klamalardan sonra \u00fclke hisse senedi borsalar\u0131nda y\u0131llard\u0131r g\u00f6r\u00fclmeyen y\u00fckseli\u015fler oldu. Konut piyasalar\u0131nda da ilk konut al\u0131c\u0131lar\u0131ndan kaynaklanan \u00f6nemli bir canlanma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Ancak ekonomiler darald\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemindeki likiditeyi art\u0131rmak ve faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek etkili canland\u0131rma ara\u00e7lar\u0131 de\u011fildir. Konut finansman\u0131nda sa\u011flanan kolayl\u0131klar\u0131n da fiyatlar\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fme e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu bir ortamda ilk konut al\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 bir miktar canland\u0131rsa da talebi kal\u0131c\u0131 olarak art\u0131rmas\u0131 beklenmez. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla paketin parasal b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fc ekonomiyi canland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in yeterli de\u011fildi; hisse senedi piyasalar\u0131ndaki co\u015fku, devam\u0131n\u0131n da mali tedbirlerle gelmesi beklentisiyleydi.<\/span><\/p>

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MERKEZ\u0130 Y\u00d6NET\u0130M\u0130N F\u0130NANSMAN G\u00dcC\u00dc<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz g\u00fcnlerde \u00fclkenin Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131nca yap\u0131lan a\u00e7\u0131klamalar, beklenen paketin gelece\u011fini teyit ettiyse de i\u00e7eri\u011fini ve b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc belirsiz b\u0131rakt\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019de davul yerel y\u00f6netimlerin boynunda, tokmak merkezi y\u00f6netimdedir. Merkez; yerel y\u00f6netimlere Covid-19 gibi kriz durumlar\u0131, ekonomik, teknolojik ve sosyal geli\u015fme ile ilgili hedefler verir ama bu hedeflerin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesi i\u00e7in gerekli kaynaklara fazla kar\u0131\u015fmaz. Bunlar\u0131n olu\u015fturulmas\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde yerel y\u00f6netimlere b\u0131rak\u0131rken, onlar\u0131n bor\u00e7lanma olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 da kotalarla s\u0131n\u0131rlar. Bunun sonucu olarak yerel y\u00f6netimlerin, \u00f6nemli bir k\u0131sm\u0131 kay\u0131t d\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmak \u00fczere b\u00fcy\u00fck ve artan boyutlarda borca sahip olmas\u0131, merkezin verdi\u011fi hedefleri yerine getirme olanaklar\u0131n\u0131 da giderek k\u0131s\u0131tl\u0131yor. Maliye Bakanl\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131nda, yerel y\u00f6netimlere art\u0131r\u0131lacak bor\u00e7lanma kotalar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak sat\u0131lmayan konutlar\u0131 sat\u0131n al\u0131p ucuz konutlara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcrme gibi ek g\u00f6revler y\u00fckleniyor. Ancak a\u00e7\u0131klamadan, \u015fimdiye kadar do\u011frudan bor\u00e7lanmayan merkezi y\u00f6netimin art\u0131k davulun y\u00fck\u00fcn\u00fc de k\u0131smen kald\u0131raca\u011f\u0131, kendisi bor\u00e7lanarak yerel y\u00f6netimlerin bor\u00e7luluk d\u00fczeyini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrerek i\u015flevlerini daha etkili \u015fekilde yerine getirmelerini sa\u011flamaya y\u00f6nelece\u011fi anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor. Mali paketin i\u00e7eri\u011fi ve boyutlar\u0131 hen\u00fcz belli de\u011filse de bu paketin arkas\u0131nda merkezi y\u00f6netimin finansman g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn olaca\u011f\u0131 anla\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Ancak bu, 2008 k\u00fcresel krizinde oldu\u011fu gibi dev bir canland\u0131rma paketi anlam\u0131na gelmiyor. \u00dclke y\u00f6netimi, firmalar ve yerel y\u00f6netimlerin g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczdeki bor\u00e7luluk sorununun ard\u0131nda olan o t\u00fcr bir canland\u0131rmadan dikkatle ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131yor. \u00dclke y\u00f6netiminin hedefi, nas\u0131l olursa olsun bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme de\u011fil, teknoloji ve y\u00fcksek katma de\u011fere dayal\u0131 bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme. Canland\u0131rma paketi i\u00e7in bi\u00e7ilen rol, sadece o geli\u015fme s\u00fcrecinde ge\u00e7ici olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen sars\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 azaltmak.<\/span><\/p>


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