{"status":true,"post":{"id":42812,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-08-28 07:44:00","created_at":"2023-08-28T04:44:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-08-28T04:44:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":42812,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u00c7in\u2019de neler oluyor?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisinde son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler ve s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar d\u00fcnya genelinde de yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. \u00c7in\u2019deki geli\u015fmeler t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya ekonomisini oldu\u011fu gibi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de yak\u0131ndan ilgilendiriyor. Geli\u015fmeleri ve olas\u0131 etkileri de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. EKONOM\u0130K B\u00dcY\u00dcME MODEL\u0130 YEN\u0130LEN\u0130YORDU<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kamu destekleri, ucuz i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve maliyetler, y\u00fcksek yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve ihracata dayal\u0131 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeli uygulad\u0131ktan sonra 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu modelin de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesine ve i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimin de destekledi\u011fi bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeline ge\u00e7i\u015f karar\u0131 al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130\u00e7eride bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde at\u0131l kapasiteler konsolide edilirken, kamu destekleri de azalt\u0131lmaya ve normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Destekler ve kaynaklar gayrimenkul ve konut edinimi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere t\u00fcketim i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. \u00c7in, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelinde kritik bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe ba\u015flam\u0131\u015fken 2020 ba\u015f\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan pandemi salg\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimi yava\u015flatt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. SALGINDAN \u00c7OK ALINAN \u00d6NLEMLER EKONOM\u0130Y\u0130 SINIRLADI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in, pandemi ile m\u00fccadelede \u00e7ok kat\u0131 kurallar uygulad\u0131. Uzun s\u00fcreli ve geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 kapatma politikas\u0131n\u0131 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130ktisadi ve sosyal faaliyetlerde ciddi duraklamalar ve kay\u0131plar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019e ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirleri yeniden yap\u0131lanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131nda tedarik \u00f6ncelikleri de\u011fi\u015fti ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelerden tedarik artt\u0131. \u00c7in, t\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren salg\u0131n ile m\u00fccadelede kapatma politikas\u0131n\u0131 terk etti. Ancak \u00c7in ekonomisi buna ra\u011fmen y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan beri istenen ivmeyi kazanamad\u0131. Ekonomide gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fc gibi bir\u00e7ok \u00fcst\u00fc \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve bu kez s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar ekonomiyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. HEGEMONYA M\u00dcCADELES\u0130 VE K\u00dcRESEL SIKI PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI ETK\u0130LER\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fcme modelinde de\u011fi\u015fime ba\u015flayan, ard\u0131ndan salg\u0131ndan olumsuz etkilenen ve bir\u00e7ok s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 alan\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fan \u00c7in, ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD ve bat\u0131 ile giri\u015fti\u011fi hegemonya m\u00fccadelesinden de etkilendi. ABD ve Bat\u0131 \u00fclkeleri hegemonya m\u00fccadelesi i\u00e7inde olduklar\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 ticaret, finansman, teknoloji alanlar\u0131nda k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Di\u011fer yandan, y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 da \u00c7in\u2019in ihracat pazarlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. T\u00fcm bunlar \u00c7in ekonomisinin lokomotifi olan ihracat\u0131n azalmas\u0131na neden oluyor. \u00c7in ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinamikleri zay\u0131fl\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. DEFLASYON VE YUAN\u2019IN DE\u011eER KAYBI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019de ya\u015fanan ekonomik geli\u015fmelerin bir di\u011fer sonucu deflasyon, yani \u00c7in\u2019de \u00fcretici ve t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesidir. \u0130\u00e7erideki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar nedeniyle fiyatlarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. \u00c7in, ihracat pazarlar\u0131na da yeniden agresif fiyat indirimleriyle giriyor. T\u00fcm bunlar deflasyona yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n bir di\u011fer sonucu ise para birimi Yuan\u2019\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131d\u0131r. Yuan, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 2005 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana en de\u011fersiz d\u00f6nemlerinden birini ya\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak de\u011fer kaybeden Yuan, \u00c7in\u2019e ihracat pazarlar\u0131nda avantaj sa\u011fl\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. DESTEK \u00d6NLEMLER\u0130 SORUNLARI \u00c7\u00d6ZECEK M\u0130?\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in, ekonomideki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in daha \u00e7ok para, kredi ve kur politikas\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131yor. Merkez bankas\u0131 ve banka kredi faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Kredi geni\u015flemesi destekleniyor. Yuan\u2019\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 kontroll\u00fc olarak s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu \u00f6nlemler, \u00c7in\u2019deki temel sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmeyecek. Ancak yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in zaman kazand\u0131racak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

6. \u00c7\u0130N\u2019DEK\u0130 GEL\u0130\u015eMELER\u0130N ETK\u0130LER\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019deki ekonomik yava\u015flama ve s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar, k\u00fcresel ekonomide de yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7acak. Bir\u00e7ok emtia fiyat\u0131 dura\u011fan kalmaya devam edecek. Fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri de olacak. Emtia ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00fcksek ihracat yapan \u00fclkeler olumsuz etkilenecek. \u00c7in, agresif olarak ihracat pazarlar\u0131na geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin uygulad\u0131klar\u0131 yeni tedarik politikalar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zorlanan \u00c7in gibi T\u00fcrkiye gibi di\u011fer alternatif pazarlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veriyor. T\u00fcrkiye hem i\u00e7eride hem d\u0131\u015far\u0131da \u00c7in\u2019in rekabet bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 daha \u00e7ok hissedecek. \u0130\u00e7eride bir\u00e7ok \u00fcr\u00fcnde korunma \u00f6nlemi al\u0131nmas\u0131 uygun olacak. \u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131nda ise \u00c7in ile artan rekabetin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u00e7eride uygun ihracat finansman\u0131 h\u0131zla sa\u011flanmal\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019de ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n artmas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in i\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da \u00c7in\u2019in artan agresif rekabeti anlam\u0131na gelir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"cinde-neler-oluyor","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1693170000ackc1ongX216XPm.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1681,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":42938,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":42812,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u00c7in\u2019de neler oluyor?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"DR. CAN G\u00dcRLESEL","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>
<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

gurlesel@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisinde son d\u00f6nemde ya\u015fanan geli\u015fmeler ve s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar d\u00fcnya genelinde de yak\u0131ndan izleniyor. \u00c7in\u2019deki geli\u015fmeler t\u00fcm d\u00fcnya ekonomisini oldu\u011fu gibi T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de yak\u0131ndan ilgilendiriyor. Geli\u015fmeleri ve olas\u0131 etkileri de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

1. EKONOM\u0130K B\u00dcY\u00dcME MODEL\u0130 YEN\u0130LEN\u0130YORDU<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisi a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 kamu destekleri, ucuz i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fc ve maliyetler, y\u00fcksek yat\u0131r\u0131mlar ve ihracata dayal\u0131 30 y\u0131ll\u0131k bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeli uygulad\u0131ktan sonra 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda bu modelin de\u011fi\u015ftirilmesine ve i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimin de destekledi\u011fi bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme modeline ge\u00e7i\u015f karar\u0131 al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u0130\u00e7eride bir\u00e7ok sekt\u00f6rde at\u0131l kapasiteler konsolide edilirken, kamu destekleri de azalt\u0131lmaya ve normalle\u015fmeye ba\u015flad\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Destekler ve kaynaklar gayrimenkul ve konut edinimi ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere t\u00fcketim i\u00e7in kullan\u0131lmaya ba\u015fland\u0131. \u00c7in, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme modelinde kritik bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe ba\u015flam\u0131\u015fken 2020 ba\u015f\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan pandemi salg\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fimi yava\u015flatt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2. SALGINDAN \u00c7OK ALINAN \u00d6NLEMLER EKONOM\u0130Y\u0130 SINIRLADI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in, pandemi ile m\u00fccadelede \u00e7ok kat\u0131 kurallar uygulad\u0131. Uzun s\u00fcreli ve geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 kapatma politikas\u0131n\u0131 2022 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc. \u0130ktisadi ve sosyal faaliyetlerde ciddi duraklamalar ve kay\u0131plar ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019e ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131 k\u00fcresel tedarik zincirleri yeniden yap\u0131lanmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. \u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131nda tedarik \u00f6ncelikleri de\u011fi\u015fti ve di\u011fer \u00fclkelerden tedarik artt\u0131. \u00c7in, t\u00fcm bu geli\u015fmelerin ard\u0131ndan 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 ba\u015f\u0131ndan itibaren salg\u0131n ile m\u00fccadelede kapatma politikas\u0131n\u0131 terk etti. Ancak \u00c7in ekonomisi buna ra\u011fmen y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131ndan beri istenen ivmeyi kazanamad\u0131. Ekonomide gayrimenkul sekt\u00f6r\u00fc gibi bir\u00e7ok \u00fcst\u00fc \u00f6rt\u00fcl\u00fc s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131 ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 ve bu kez s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar ekonomiyi s\u0131n\u0131rlamaya ba\u015flad\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

3. HEGEMONYA M\u00dcCADELES\u0130 VE K\u00dcRESEL SIKI PARA POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI ETK\u0130LER\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

B\u00fcy\u00fcme modelinde de\u011fi\u015fime ba\u015flayan, ard\u0131ndan salg\u0131ndan olumsuz etkilenen ve bir\u00e7ok s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 alan\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 ile kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fan \u00c7in, ayn\u0131 zamanda ABD ve bat\u0131 ile giri\u015fti\u011fi hegemonya m\u00fccadelesinden de etkilendi. ABD ve Bat\u0131 \u00fclkeleri hegemonya m\u00fccadelesi i\u00e7inde olduklar\u0131 \u00c7in\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 ticaret, finansman, teknoloji alanlar\u0131nda k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Di\u011fer yandan, y\u00fcksek enflasyon ile m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in uygulanan s\u0131k\u0131 para politikalar\u0131 da \u00c7in\u2019in ihracat pazarlar\u0131nda \u00f6nemli yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7t\u0131. T\u00fcm bunlar \u00c7in ekonomisinin lokomotifi olan ihracat\u0131n azalmas\u0131na neden oluyor. \u00c7in ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme dinamikleri zay\u0131fl\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

4. DEFLASYON VE YUAN\u2019IN DE\u011eER KAYBI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019de ya\u015fanan ekonomik geli\u015fmelerin bir di\u011fer sonucu deflasyon, yani \u00c7in\u2019de \u00fcretici ve t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n gerilemesidir. \u0130\u00e7erideki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar nedeniyle fiyatlarda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. \u00c7in, ihracat pazarlar\u0131na da yeniden agresif fiyat indirimleriyle giriyor. T\u00fcm bunlar deflasyona yol a\u00e7\u0131yor. Ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n bir di\u011fer sonucu ise para birimi Yuan\u2019\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131d\u0131r. Yuan, ABD dolar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda 2005 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana en de\u011fersiz d\u00f6nemlerinden birini ya\u015f\u0131yor. Ancak de\u011fer kaybeden Yuan, \u00c7in\u2019e ihracat pazarlar\u0131nda avantaj sa\u011fl\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

5. DESTEK \u00d6NLEMLER\u0130 SORUNLARI \u00c7\u00d6ZECEK M\u0130?\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in, ekonomideki s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n a\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in daha \u00e7ok para, kredi ve kur politikas\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131yor. Merkez bankas\u0131 ve banka kredi faizleri d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcyor. Kredi geni\u015flemesi destekleniyor. Yuan\u2019\u0131n de\u011fer kayb\u0131 kontroll\u00fc olarak s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Bu \u00f6nlemler, \u00c7in\u2019deki temel sorunlar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmeyecek. Ancak yap\u0131sal sorunlar\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in zaman kazand\u0131racak.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

6. \u00c7\u0130N\u2019DEK\u0130 GEL\u0130\u015eMELER\u0130N ETK\u0130LER\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019deki ekonomik yava\u015flama ve s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar, k\u00fcresel ekonomide de yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7acak. Bir\u00e7ok emtia fiyat\u0131 dura\u011fan kalmaya devam edecek. Fiyat d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fleri de olacak. Emtia ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131 ve \u00c7in\u2019e y\u00fcksek ihracat yapan \u00fclkeler olumsuz etkilenecek. \u00c7in, agresif olarak ihracat pazarlar\u0131na geri d\u00f6n\u00fcyor. Bat\u0131l\u0131 \u00fclkelerin uygulad\u0131klar\u0131 yeni tedarik politikalar\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda zorlanan \u00c7in gibi T\u00fcrkiye gibi di\u011fer alternatif pazarlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veriyor. T\u00fcrkiye hem i\u00e7eride hem d\u0131\u015far\u0131da \u00c7in\u2019in rekabet bask\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 daha \u00e7ok hissedecek. \u0130\u00e7eride bir\u00e7ok \u00fcr\u00fcnde korunma \u00f6nlemi al\u0131nmas\u0131 uygun olacak. \u0130hracat pazarlar\u0131nda ise \u00c7in ile artan rekabetin ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131 olmas\u0131 i\u00e7in i\u00e7eride uygun ihracat finansman\u0131 h\u0131zla sa\u011flanmal\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

SON S\u00d6Z<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019de ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131n artmas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye i\u00e7in i\u00e7eride ve d\u0131\u015far\u0131da \u00c7in\u2019in artan agresif rekabeti anlam\u0131na gelir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"cinde-neler-oluyor","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1693170000ackc1ongX216XPm.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1693170000ackc1ongX216XPm.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1681,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}