{"status":true,"post":{"id":42811,"user_id":2,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-08-28 07:41:00","created_at":"2023-08-28T04:41:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-08-28T04:41:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":42811,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u00c7in mucizesinin sonu mu?","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

fatih@fatihoktay.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisi, piyasa ekonomisine ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 1978 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra 40 y\u0131l boyunca y\u0131lda ortalama y\u00fczde 10 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bug\u00fcn ise \u00c7in ekonomisinin y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefini tutturup tutturamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 konu\u015fuyoruz. Daha \u00f6nce ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi \u00c7in ekonomisi, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1\u2019den az bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterdi. Temmuz ay\u0131 verileri de beklentilerin alt\u0131ndayd\u0131 ve \u00fcstelik t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131nda da talep zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden bir azalma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u0130thalatta, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 7 ay\u0131nda \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re talep zay\u0131flamas\u0131 olarak yorumlanan y\u00fczde 8\u2019e yak\u0131n bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f vard\u0131. Bu durumda \u00c7in\u2019in 40 y\u0131ll\u0131k ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme mucizesinin sonuna gelindi\u011fi yolunda yorumlar s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131. Bu yorumlar yerinde mi? B\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla, de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00dcRET\u0130ME TALEP D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir \u00fclkenin \u00fcretti\u011fi mal ve hizmetlere olan talep, ama\u00e7 ve kaynak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7e ayr\u0131labilir: Yurti\u00e7i kaynakl\u0131 t\u00fcketim ama\u00e7l\u0131 talep, yurti\u00e7i kaynakl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m ama\u00e7l\u0131 talep, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 talep (ihracat). Ekonominin belli bir h\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim, i\u00e7 yat\u0131r\u0131m, ihracat olmak \u00fczere bu \u00fc\u00e7 talep bile\u015feninin toplam\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu h\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi gerekir. \u00c7in ekonomisinin 2008 \u00f6ncesi y\u0131llarda, y\u0131lda ortalama y\u00fczde 10 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131, yaln\u0131z \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131 de\u011fil, \u00fcretilen mallar\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan talebin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sonucuydu: Bu s\u00fcre boyunca \u00c7in\u2019in \u00fcretti\u011fi mal ve hizmetlere olan talep de ortalama olarak y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 10 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in temel sorununu, \u00fclkede \u00fcretilen \u00fcr\u00fcnlere mevcut ko\u015fullarda bu d\u00fczeylerde bir talep art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flanamamas\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2008 krizi \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemde \u00c7in mallar\u0131na olan d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 talep, ihracat, her y\u0131l y\u00fczde 20\u2019ler d\u00fczeyinde art\u0131yordu. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00fclkedeki \u00f6zel ve devlet yat\u0131r\u0131m projelerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeylerdeydi. T\u00fcketim kaynakl\u0131 talep ise ortalamada y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 8 dolaylar\u0131nda artsa da ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ard\u0131ndan geliyordu. 2008 krizi ile beraber d\u00fcnya d\u0131\u015f ticareti h\u0131z kesti, k\u00fcresel ithalat-ihracat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azald\u0131. \u00c7in, d\u00fcnya toplam ihracat\u0131ndaki pay\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fcyse de art\u0131k d\u0131\u015f talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki eski rol\u00fcn\u00fc oynam\u0131yordu. Bunun sonucunda ba\u015fta ihracata y\u00f6nelik olanlar olmak \u00fczere \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131m projelerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu talep art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. T\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 ihracat ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki azalmay\u0131 telafi edecek d\u00fczeye ula\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi belli bir d\u00fczeyde tutmak i\u00e7in gerekli talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 giderek artan boyutta kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m projeleri ile sa\u011flan\u0131r oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00dcKET\u0130ME DAYALI TALEP ARTMALI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya d\u0131\u015f ticaretinin h\u0131z kesti\u011fi, k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin yerini kutupla\u015fman\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda ihracat\u0131n art\u0131k \u00c7in ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme motorlar\u0131ndan biri olmas\u0131 beklenemez. \u00d6te yandan, kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ile talep yaratmak, bunun kamu finansman\u0131ndaki olumsuz etkileri nedeniyle kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olamaz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00c7in ekonomisinin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in t\u00fcketime dayal\u0131 talebin h\u0131zla artmas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u00dclke y\u00f6netimi, t\u00fcketime dayal\u0131 talep art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in 2000\u2019lerin ba\u015flar\u0131ndan bu yana \u00e7abal\u0131yorsa da g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde bireysel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 \u00fclke \u00fcretiminin y\u00fczde 40\u2019tan az bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor. Bu oran d\u00fcnya genelinde y\u00fczde 55, AB\u2019de y\u00fczde 50, Japonya\u2019da y\u00fczde 55, ABD\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 70 dolaylar\u0131nda.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisinin uzun d\u00f6nem sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, t\u00fcketiminin istenen d\u00fczeyde b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in gerekli talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak duruma gelmesine ba\u011fl\u0131. \u00d6zellikle t\u00fcketimde geriden gelen k\u0131rsal y\u00f6relerin canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla bunun sa\u011flanmas\u0131 da \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin en \u00f6ncelikli hedefleri aras\u0131nda bulunuyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"cin-mucizesinin-sonu-mu","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1693170000Q81JsKP0XHsvnl9.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1527,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":2,"name":"FAT\u0130H","surname":"OKTAY","email":"ozansoy.tuna@akay.com","slug":"fatih-oktay","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600qSRn7kb3ZZVHU3t.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":42937,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":42811,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u00c7in mucizesinin sonu mu?","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

fatih@fatihoktay.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisi, piyasa ekonomisine ge\u00e7i\u015f s\u00fcrecinin ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 1978 y\u0131l\u0131ndan sonra 40 y\u0131l boyunca y\u0131lda ortalama y\u00fczde 10 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bug\u00fcn ise \u00c7in ekonomisinin y\u00fczde 5\u2019lik b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefini tutturup tutturamayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 konu\u015fuyoruz. Daha \u00f6nce ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z gibi \u00c7in ekonomisi, bu y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 1\u2019den az bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6sterdi. Temmuz ay\u0131 verileri de beklentilerin alt\u0131ndayd\u0131 ve \u00fcstelik t\u00fcketici fiyatlar\u0131nda da talep zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret eden bir azalma g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. \u0130thalatta, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk 7 ay\u0131nda \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine g\u00f6re talep zay\u0131flamas\u0131 olarak yorumlanan y\u00fczde 8\u2019e yak\u0131n bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f vard\u0131. Bu durumda \u00c7in\u2019in 40 y\u0131ll\u0131k ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme mucizesinin sonuna gelindi\u011fi yolunda yorumlar s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131. Bu yorumlar yerinde mi? B\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla, de\u011fil.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00dcRET\u0130ME TALEP D\u00dc\u015e\u00dcK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bir \u00fclkenin \u00fcretti\u011fi mal ve hizmetlere olan talep, ama\u00e7 ve kaynak a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00fc\u00e7e ayr\u0131labilir: Yurti\u00e7i kaynakl\u0131 t\u00fcketim ama\u00e7l\u0131 talep, yurti\u00e7i kaynakl\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m ama\u00e7l\u0131 talep, yurtd\u0131\u015f\u0131 kaynakl\u0131 talep (ihracat). Ekonominin belli bir h\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in i\u00e7 t\u00fcketim, i\u00e7 yat\u0131r\u0131m, ihracat olmak \u00fczere bu \u00fc\u00e7 talep bile\u015feninin toplam\u0131n\u0131n s\u00f6z konusu h\u0131zda b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi gerekir. \u00c7in ekonomisinin 2008 \u00f6ncesi y\u0131llarda, y\u0131lda ortalama y\u00fczde 10 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015f olmas\u0131, yaln\u0131z \u00fcretim art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131 de\u011fil, \u00fcretilen mallar\u0131n sat\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayan talebin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n sonucuydu: Bu s\u00fcre boyunca \u00c7in\u2019in \u00fcretti\u011fi mal ve hizmetlere olan talep de ortalama olarak y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 10 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. \u00c7in\u2019in temel sorununu, \u00fclkede \u00fcretilen \u00fcr\u00fcnlere mevcut ko\u015fullarda bu d\u00fczeylerde bir talep art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 sa\u011flanamamas\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

2008 krizi \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemde \u00c7in mallar\u0131na olan d\u0131\u015f kaynakl\u0131 talep, ihracat, her y\u0131l y\u00fczde 20\u2019ler d\u00fczeyinde art\u0131yordu. Ayn\u0131 \u015fekilde \u00fclkedeki \u00f6zel ve devlet yat\u0131r\u0131m projelerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 da \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek d\u00fczeylerdeydi. T\u00fcketim kaynakl\u0131 talep ise ortalamada y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 8 dolaylar\u0131nda artsa da ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin ard\u0131ndan geliyordu. 2008 krizi ile beraber d\u00fcnya d\u0131\u015f ticareti h\u0131z kesti, k\u00fcresel ithalat-ihracat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 yar\u0131 yar\u0131ya azald\u0131. \u00c7in, d\u00fcnya toplam ihracat\u0131ndaki pay\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fcyse de art\u0131k d\u0131\u015f talep b\u00fcy\u00fcmedeki eski rol\u00fcn\u00fc oynam\u0131yordu. Bunun sonucunda ba\u015fta ihracata y\u00f6nelik olanlar olmak \u00fczere \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131m projelerinin olu\u015fturdu\u011fu talep art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 da d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. T\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131 ihracat ve \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r yat\u0131r\u0131m harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131ndaki azalmay\u0131 telafi edecek d\u00fczeye ula\u015famad\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi belli bir d\u00fczeyde tutmak i\u00e7in gerekli talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131 giderek artan boyutta kamu yat\u0131r\u0131m projeleri ile sa\u011flan\u0131r oldu.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

T\u00dcKET\u0130ME DAYALI TALEP ARTMALI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

D\u00fcnya d\u0131\u015f ticaretinin h\u0131z kesti\u011fi, k\u00fcreselle\u015fmenin yerini kutupla\u015fman\u0131n ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda ihracat\u0131n art\u0131k \u00c7in ekonomisinin b\u00fcy\u00fcme motorlar\u0131ndan biri olmas\u0131 beklenemez. \u00d6te yandan, kamu yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 ile talep yaratmak, bunun kamu finansman\u0131ndaki olumsuz etkileri nedeniyle kal\u0131c\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm olamaz. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla \u00c7in ekonomisinin sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 \u015fekilde b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi i\u00e7in t\u00fcketime dayal\u0131 talebin h\u0131zla artmas\u0131 gerekiyor. \u00dclke y\u00f6netimi, t\u00fcketime dayal\u0131 talep art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rmak i\u00e7in 2000\u2019lerin ba\u015flar\u0131ndan bu yana \u00e7abal\u0131yorsa da g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fczde bireysel t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 \u00fclke \u00fcretiminin y\u00fczde 40\u2019tan az bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc olu\u015fturuyor. Bu oran d\u00fcnya genelinde y\u00fczde 55, AB\u2019de y\u00fczde 50, Japonya\u2019da y\u00fczde 55, ABD\u2019de ise y\u00fczde 70 dolaylar\u0131nda.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ekonomisinin uzun d\u00f6nem sa\u011fl\u0131\u011f\u0131, t\u00fcketiminin istenen d\u00fczeyde b\u00fcy\u00fcme i\u00e7in gerekli talep art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flayacak duruma gelmesine ba\u011fl\u0131. \u00d6zellikle t\u00fcketimde geriden gelen k\u0131rsal y\u00f6relerin canland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131yla bunun sa\u011flanmas\u0131 da \u00fclke y\u00f6netiminin en \u00f6ncelikli hedefleri aras\u0131nda bulunuyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"cin-mucizesinin-sonu-mu","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1693170000Q81JsKP0XHsvnl9.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1693170000Q81JsKP0XHsvnl9.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1527,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}