{"status":true,"post":{"id":47572,"user_id":2,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-01-15 07:53:00","created_at":"2024-01-15T04:53:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-01-15T04:53:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":47572,"is_featured":0,"title":"\u00c7in, ABD, AB ili\u015fkileri ve k\u00fcresel ekonomi","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

fatih@fatihoktay.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki, AB\u2019nin de ABD\u2019ye yak\u0131n konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fccadele, d\u00fcnya ekonomisini geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in zorlay\u0131c\u0131 bir yap\u0131lanmaya g\u00f6t\u00fcrebilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ABD, \u00c7in\u2019i 2008 k\u00fcresel krizinden sonra Obama d\u00f6neminde, stratejik bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Ne var ki ABD, \u00fclke y\u00f6netimlerince art\u0131k bir has\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen bu \u00fclke ile ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan art\u0131k yap\u0131\u015f\u0131k ikizler gibi yak\u0131n bir durumdayd\u0131. \u00c7in, ABD\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131yd\u0131; \u00c7in mallar\u0131 bir yandan ABD insan\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketim, bir yandan da firmalar\u0131n\u0131n ara mal ve yat\u0131r\u0131m mal\u0131 ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yordu. ABD\u2019li \u015firketler, \u00c7in\u2019in i\u00e7 pazar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fcretim yapmak \u00fczere her y\u0131l ortalama 15 milyar dolarl\u0131k do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yor ve bundan b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00e2rlar sa\u011fl\u0131yordu. Bir\u00e7ok \u015firket i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck pazar \u00c7in\u2019di. \u00c7in de ABD\u2019ye giderek artan boyutlarda yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yordu. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7inli \u015firketlerin, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ABD \u015firketlerini sat\u0131n alma yoluyla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m 46 milyar dolar olmu\u015ftu. \u00d6te yandan \u00c7in, b\u00fcy\u00fck boyutlu d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlalar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 birka\u00e7 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ABD devlet tahvillerinde de\u011ferlendiriyor, ABD kamu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck finans\u00f6r\u00fc konumunda bulunuyordu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

DOST \u00dcLKELERDE \u00dcRET\u0130M<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u00c7in mallar\u0131na getirdi\u011fi y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 ek vergiler, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik eklemlenmeyi \u00e7\u00f6zme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ilk ad\u0131m oldu. Ard\u0131ndan \u00c7in\u2019in ABD \u015firketlerini sat\u0131n almas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlayan tedbirler, daha sonra da ABD\u2019li \u015firketlerin \u00c7in\u2019e yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan d\u00fczenlemeler geldi. Bu politikalar bir yandan \u00c7in ekonomisini zay\u0131flatmak, bir yandan da \u00c7in\u2019den sa\u011flanan mallar\u0131n tercihen \u00fclkede \u00fcretilmesini, o olmuyorsa \u00fcretiminin ba\u015fka dost \u00fclkelere kaymas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamakt\u0131. Entegre devre \u00e7ipler, elektrikli otomobiller, g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi \u00fcretim sistemleri gibi stratejik sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00fcretimin \u00fclke i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekilmesi i\u00e7in bu k\u00f6\u015fede ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z korumac\u0131 sanayi politikalar\u0131 da uygulamaya sokuldu. AB ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta ABD\u2019nin bu politikalar\u0131na mesafeli dursa da giderek benzer bir \u00e7izgiye geldi. Bunda ABD\u2019nin ikna \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yan\u0131nda \u00c7inli firmalar\u0131n rekabet g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin h\u0131zla artmas\u0131 ve otomobil gibi AB firmalar\u0131n\u0131n geleneksel olarak hakim oldu\u011fu sekt\u00f6rlerde bile \u00f6ne ge\u00e7meye ba\u015flamalar\u0131 rol oynuyor. Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Rusya\u2019ya enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorunlar da AB\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019e ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya y\u00f6nelmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f bulunuyor. \u00c7inli \u015firketlerin \u00f6zellikle \u015firket al\u0131m\u0131 yoluyla yapt\u0131klar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlara ABD\u2019ninkine benzer d\u00fczenlemeler getiren AB, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde yine ABD\u2019ninkine benzer korumac\u0131 sanayi politikalar\u0131 ve ba\u015fka d\u00fczenlemelerle stratejik sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00fcretimi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7ine, bunun olamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumlarda \u2018dost\u2019 \u00fclkelere \u00e7ekmeye y\u00f6nelik politikalara y\u00f6nelece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130ngiltere ve Japonya\u2019da da benzer geli\u015fmeler oluyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KORUMACI SANAY\u0130 POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu geli\u015fmeler, k\u0131sa ve orta vadede \u00c7in i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir sorun olu\u015fturmuyor. Trump d\u00f6nemi ek g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri ve di\u011fer \u00f6nlemler sonucunda \u00c7in, ABD\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 konumunu Meksika\u2019ya devretmi\u015f, ABD ithalat\u0131 i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ancak ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Meksika ve Vietnam gibi \u00fclkelerin hem ABD\u2019ye ihracat\u0131n\u0131n hem \u00c7in\u2019den ithalat\u0131n\u0131n e\u015fzamanl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in ihracat\u0131n\u0131n bu \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinden, b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u00c7in\u2019den sa\u011flanan girdilerle \u00fcretimin son a\u015famas\u0131n\u0131 bu \u00fclkelerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesiyle s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor, \u00c7in\u2019in toplam ihracat\u0131 \u00fczerinde olumsuz bir etki g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. \u00c7in\u2019de \u00fcretilen mallara getirilen ek vergi yan\u0131nda ABD ile olan gerginli\u011fin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 politik riskler nedeniyle son zamanlarda \u00c7in\u2019e giren yabanc\u0131 sermayede azalma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ama kal\u0131c\u0131 olacak olsa dahi bunun da \u00fclkenin i\u00e7 tasarruflar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ekonomiye b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olumsuz etki yapmas\u0131 beklenmiyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019in ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 \u00fclke gelirinin ve \u00fccret d\u00fczeyinin y\u00fckselmesiyle 2010\u2019lu y\u0131llardan ba\u015flayarak \u00c7inli ve yabanc\u0131 \u00fcreticiler, emek yo\u011fun mallar\u0131n \u00fcretimini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fccretli \u00fclkelere kayd\u0131r\u0131yordu. \u00c7in mallar\u0131na getirilen ek vergilerin etkisi bu mevcut s\u00fcreci h\u0131zland\u0131rmakla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olur. Ancak mevcut sanayile\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin stratejik, y\u00fcksek teknolojili sekt\u00f6rlerde korumac\u0131 sanayi politikalar\u0131 ve di\u011fer y\u00f6ntemlerle \u00fcretimi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7ine veya \u2018dost\u2019, \u2018g\u00fcvenilir\u2019 \u00fclkelere \u00e7ekme politikalar\u0131, \u00fcretim faaliyetlerinin k\u00fcresel konumlar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik de\u011fil politik etkenlere g\u00f6re belirlendi\u011fi, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin geli\u015fmi\u015fli\u011fe \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00fcnya olu\u015fturur.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"cin-abd-ab-iliskileri-ve-kuresel-ekonomi","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1705266000mWKSgRO5bALu3WU.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":2181,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":2,"name":"FAT\u0130H","surname":"OKTAY","email":"ozansoy.tuna@akay.com","slug":"fatih-oktay","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600qSRn7kb3ZZVHU3t.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T14:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":47698,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":47572,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"\u00c7in, ABD, AB ili\u015fkileri ve k\u00fcresel ekonomi","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"FAT\u0130H OKTAY","content":"


<\/span><\/strong><\/p>


<\/p>

fatih@fatihoktay.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in ile ABD aras\u0131ndaki, AB\u2019nin de ABD\u2019ye yak\u0131n konumland\u0131\u011f\u0131 m\u00fccadele, d\u00fcnya ekonomisini geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in zorlay\u0131c\u0131 bir yap\u0131lanmaya g\u00f6t\u00fcrebilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ABD, \u00c7in\u2019i 2008 k\u00fcresel krizinden sonra Obama d\u00f6neminde, stratejik bir tehdit olarak g\u00f6rmeye ba\u015flad\u0131. Ne var ki ABD, \u00fclke y\u00f6netimlerince art\u0131k bir has\u0131m olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen bu \u00fclke ile ekonomik a\u00e7\u0131dan art\u0131k yap\u0131\u015f\u0131k ikizler gibi yak\u0131n bir durumdayd\u0131. \u00c7in, ABD\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131yd\u0131; \u00c7in mallar\u0131 bir yandan ABD insan\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketim, bir yandan da firmalar\u0131n\u0131n ara mal ve yat\u0131r\u0131m mal\u0131 ihtiya\u00e7lar\u0131n\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131l\u0131yordu. ABD\u2019li \u015firketler, \u00c7in\u2019in i\u00e7 pazar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fcretim yapmak \u00fczere her y\u0131l ortalama 15 milyar dolarl\u0131k do\u011frudan yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yor ve bundan b\u00fcy\u00fck k\u00e2rlar sa\u011fl\u0131yordu. Bir\u00e7ok \u015firket i\u00e7in en b\u00fcy\u00fck pazar \u00c7in\u2019di. \u00c7in de ABD\u2019ye giderek artan boyutlarda yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131yordu. 2016 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00c7inli \u015firketlerin, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde ABD \u015firketlerini sat\u0131n alma yoluyla yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131m 46 milyar dolar olmu\u015ftu. \u00d6te yandan \u00c7in, b\u00fcy\u00fck boyutlu d\u0131\u015f ticaret fazlalar\u0131n\u0131n sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 birka\u00e7 milyar dolarl\u0131k d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin \u00f6nemli b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc ABD devlet tahvillerinde de\u011ferlendiriyor, ABD kamu a\u00e7\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck finans\u00f6r\u00fc konumunda bulunuyordu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

DOST \u00dcLKELERDE \u00dcRET\u0130M<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Trump y\u00f6netiminin \u00c7in mallar\u0131na getirdi\u011fi y\u00fcksek oranl\u0131 ek vergiler, iki \u00fclke aras\u0131ndaki ekonomik eklemlenmeyi \u00e7\u00f6zme y\u00f6n\u00fcnde ilk ad\u0131m oldu. Ard\u0131ndan \u00c7in\u2019in ABD \u015firketlerini sat\u0131n almas\u0131n\u0131 k\u0131s\u0131tlayan tedbirler, daha sonra da ABD\u2019li \u015firketlerin \u00c7in\u2019e yat\u0131r\u0131m yapmas\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131n\u0131rlayan d\u00fczenlemeler geldi. Bu politikalar bir yandan \u00c7in ekonomisini zay\u0131flatmak, bir yandan da \u00c7in\u2019den sa\u011flanan mallar\u0131n tercihen \u00fclkede \u00fcretilmesini, o olmuyorsa \u00fcretiminin ba\u015fka dost \u00fclkelere kaymas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamakt\u0131. Entegre devre \u00e7ipler, elektrikli otomobiller, g\u00fcne\u015f enerjisi \u00fcretim sistemleri gibi stratejik sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00fcretimin \u00fclke i\u00e7ine \u00e7ekilmesi i\u00e7in bu k\u00f6\u015fede ele ald\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z korumac\u0131 sanayi politikalar\u0131 da uygulamaya sokuldu. AB ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7ta ABD\u2019nin bu politikalar\u0131na mesafeli dursa da giderek benzer bir \u00e7izgiye geldi. Bunda ABD\u2019nin ikna \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 yan\u0131nda \u00c7inli firmalar\u0131n rekabet g\u00fc\u00e7lerinin h\u0131zla artmas\u0131 ve otomobil gibi AB firmalar\u0131n\u0131n geleneksel olarak hakim oldu\u011fu sekt\u00f6rlerde bile \u00f6ne ge\u00e7meye ba\u015flamalar\u0131 rol oynuyor. Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde Rusya\u2019ya enerji ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 sorunlar da AB\u2019nin \u00c7in\u2019e ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 azaltmaya y\u00f6nelmesine yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f bulunuyor. \u00c7inli \u015firketlerin \u00f6zellikle \u015firket al\u0131m\u0131 yoluyla yapt\u0131klar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlara ABD\u2019ninkine benzer d\u00fczenlemeler getiren AB, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde yine ABD\u2019ninkine benzer korumac\u0131 sanayi politikalar\u0131 ve ba\u015fka d\u00fczenlemelerle stratejik sekt\u00f6rlerde \u00fcretimi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7ine, bunun olamad\u0131\u011f\u0131 durumlarda \u2018dost\u2019 \u00fclkelere \u00e7ekmeye y\u00f6nelik politikalara y\u00f6nelece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130ngiltere ve Japonya\u2019da da benzer geli\u015fmeler oluyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

KORUMACI SANAY\u0130 POL\u0130T\u0130KALARI\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu geli\u015fmeler, k\u0131sa ve orta vadede \u00c7in i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli bir sorun olu\u015fturmuyor. Trump d\u00f6nemi ek g\u00fcmr\u00fck vergileri ve di\u011fer \u00f6nlemler sonucunda \u00c7in, ABD\u2019nin en b\u00fcy\u00fck ticaret orta\u011f\u0131 konumunu Meksika\u2019ya devretmi\u015f, ABD ithalat\u0131 i\u00e7indeki pay\u0131 azalm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ancak ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde Meksika ve Vietnam gibi \u00fclkelerin hem ABD\u2019ye ihracat\u0131n\u0131n hem \u00c7in\u2019den ithalat\u0131n\u0131n e\u015fzamanl\u0131 art\u0131\u015f\u0131, \u00c7in\u2019in ihracat\u0131n\u0131n bu \u00fclkeler \u00fczerinden, b\u00fcy\u00fck olas\u0131l\u0131kla \u00c7in\u2019den sa\u011flanan girdilerle \u00fcretimin son a\u015famas\u0131n\u0131 bu \u00fclkelerde ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirmesiyle s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc g\u00f6steriyor, \u00c7in\u2019in toplam ihracat\u0131 \u00fczerinde olumsuz bir etki g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. \u00c7in\u2019de \u00fcretilen mallara getirilen ek vergi yan\u0131nda ABD ile olan gerginli\u011fin yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 politik riskler nedeniyle son zamanlarda \u00c7in\u2019e giren yabanc\u0131 sermayede azalma g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor ama kal\u0131c\u0131 olacak olsa dahi bunun da \u00fclkenin i\u00e7 tasarruflar\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 a\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7in ekonomiye b\u00fcy\u00fck bir olumsuz etki yapmas\u0131 beklenmiyor.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00c7in\u2019in ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 \u00fclke gelirinin ve \u00fccret d\u00fczeyinin y\u00fckselmesiyle 2010\u2019lu y\u0131llardan ba\u015flayarak \u00c7inli ve yabanc\u0131 \u00fcreticiler, emek yo\u011fun mallar\u0131n \u00fcretimini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck \u00fccretli \u00fclkelere kayd\u0131r\u0131yordu. \u00c7in mallar\u0131na getirilen ek vergilerin etkisi bu mevcut s\u00fcreci h\u0131zland\u0131rmakla s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 olur. Ancak mevcut sanayile\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerin stratejik, y\u00fcksek teknolojili sekt\u00f6rlerde korumac\u0131 sanayi politikalar\u0131 ve di\u011fer y\u00f6ntemlerle \u00fcretimi s\u0131n\u0131rlar\u0131 i\u00e7ine veya \u2018dost\u2019, \u2018g\u00fcvenilir\u2019 \u00fclkelere \u00e7ekme politikalar\u0131, \u00fcretim faaliyetlerinin k\u00fcresel konumlar\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik de\u011fil politik etkenlere g\u00f6re belirlendi\u011fi, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerin geli\u015fmi\u015fli\u011fe \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n zorla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir d\u00fcnya olu\u015fturur.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"cin-abd-ab-iliskileri-ve-kuresel-ekonomi","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1705266000mWKSgRO5bALu3WU.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1705266000mWKSgRO5bALu3WU.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":2181,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}