{"status":true,"post":{"id":31255,"user_id":9,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 16:47:35","created_at":"2022-02-17T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T13:47:35.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":31255,"is_featured":0,"title":"Cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131n\u0131n 2022 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>DO\u00c7. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Cari a\u00e7\u0131k, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin a\u015fil tendonudur. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi sendeler. Bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduran ekonomi y\u00f6netimi gerek enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye katk\u0131 sa\u011flamak gerekse finans sisteminin \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmak i\u00e7in cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan yap\u0131sal olarak kurtulmay\u0131 yeni ekonomi modelinin merkezine koydu. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>\u0130HRACAT AVANTAJI<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> \u0130hracat\u0131n rekor seviyede gelmesi ve salg\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015femesiyle birlikte turizm gelirlerinin y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi sayesinde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l cari a\u00e7\u0131k 35.5 milyar dolardan 15 milyar dolara gerilemi\u015fti. Bu y\u0131l ortada cari fazla vermek gibi iddial\u0131 bir hedef var. Peki, ilk sinyaller ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak bize neler s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor? Analize ihracat cephesiyle ba\u015flayal\u0131m. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l y\u00fczde 25-45 band\u0131nda ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ABD, AB ve \u0130ngiltere gibi geli\u015fmi\u015f pazarlar\u0131n 2022\u2019de talep y\u00f6n\u00fcnden canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir nebze olsun kaybedebilece\u011fini not etmeliyiz. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde enflasyonun artmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye verdi\u011fi deste\u011fi geri \u00e7ekmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131, buralardaki ithalat talebini frenleyecektir. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l k\u00fcresel ekonomi yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu y\u0131l \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fen ekonomilerin yava\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019lik bir k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 bekleniyor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Bu durum, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelere ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda yava\u015flama ya\u015fanabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Buna ra\u011fmen, ihracat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n negatife d\u00f6nme ihtimalinin halen zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu vurgulayal\u0131m. T\u00fcrkiye, bu y\u0131l ihracatta 250 milyar dolar hedefini tutturabilir. Zira, TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Asya\u2019daki tedarik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetleri ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131za belli avantajlar sunmaya devam ediyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>ENERJ\u0130 MAL\u0130YETLER\u0130<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve faizden dolay\u0131 t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131m\u0131z ge\u00e7en seneye k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydedebilir. Ancak, enerji maliyetlerindeki ba\u015f d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc art\u0131\u015f, ithalat faturam\u0131z\u0131 kabart\u0131yor. Enerjinin bu y\u0131l cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131ndaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk kalemi oldu\u011funu belirtmek abart\u0131l\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r. \u015eu anki mevcut tablo, k\u0131sa vadede enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7me ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Riskler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. K\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 rahatlatabilecek iki unsur var: <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Rusya-Ukrayna geriliminin normalle\u015fmesi ve ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeni bir anla\u015fmaya do\u011fru ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lmas\u0131. E\u011fer jeopolitik meselelerde belli mesafeler kat edilebilirse, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya gelmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Aksi takdirde, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 haneli rakamlar telaffuz edilebilir. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>TUR\u0130ZM GEL\u0130RLER\u0130<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Son olarak turizm gelirlerini inceleyelim. Rusya ve Ukrayna, turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan iki \u00f6nemli \u00fclke olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen bu ikili aras\u0131ndaki jeopolitik gerilimin artmas\u0131, \u015fu a\u015famada turizm gelirlerinde dramatik bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe neden olmayabilir. TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi olduk\u00e7a cazip bir turizm destinasyonu haline getirdi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, jeopolitik risklerden do\u011fabilecek turist kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmek bu y\u0131l \u00e7ok zor olmayabilir. Turizm gelirlerinde 2022 hedefimiz 35 milyar dolar. Turizm hedeflerinin tutturulmas\u0131, cari fazla i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a belirleyici olacak.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"cari-islemler-hesabinin-2022-gorunumu","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131n\u0131n 2022 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc","meta_description":"DO\u00c7. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1063,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":9,"name":"NURULLAH","surname":"G\u00dcR","email":"nurullah.gur@marmara.edu.tr","slug":"prof-dr-nurullah-gur","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600zm0eg4EVw1c01iN.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:22.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":31354,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":31255,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131n\u0131n 2022 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":"  \t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><span class=\"large\"><strong>DO\u00c7. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong><\/strong><\/span><\/p>  <p><span class=\"large\">Cari a\u00e7\u0131k, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin a\u015fil tendonudur. Cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n h\u0131zl\u0131 artt\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemlerde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi sendeler. Bu ger\u00e7e\u011fi g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduran ekonomi y\u00f6netimi gerek enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleye katk\u0131 sa\u011flamak gerekse finans sisteminin \u015foklara kar\u015f\u0131 ba\u011f\u0131\u015f\u0131kl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 artt\u0131rmak i\u00e7in cari a\u00e7\u0131ktan yap\u0131sal olarak kurtulmay\u0131 yeni ekonomi modelinin merkezine koydu. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>\u0130HRACAT AVANTAJI<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> \u0130hracat\u0131n rekor seviyede gelmesi ve salg\u0131n k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015femesiyle birlikte turizm gelirlerinin y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7mesi sayesinde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l cari a\u00e7\u0131k 35.5 milyar dolardan 15 milyar dolara gerilemi\u015fti. Bu y\u0131l ortada cari fazla vermek gibi iddial\u0131 bir hedef var. Peki, ilk sinyaller ve g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm, cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131na y\u00f6nelik olarak bize neler s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor? Analize ihracat cephesiyle ba\u015flayal\u0131m. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l y\u00fczde 25-45 band\u0131nda ihracat art\u0131\u015f\u0131 yakalad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131z ABD, AB ve \u0130ngiltere gibi geli\u015fmi\u015f pazarlar\u0131n 2022\u2019de talep y\u00f6n\u00fcnden canl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bir nebze olsun kaybedebilece\u011fini not etmeliyiz. Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde enflasyonun artmas\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomiye verdi\u011fi deste\u011fi geri \u00e7ekmeye ba\u015flamas\u0131, buralardaki ithalat talebini frenleyecektir. Ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz y\u0131l k\u00fcresel ekonomi yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 6 b\u00fcy\u00fcm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bu y\u0131l \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fen ekonomilerin yava\u015flamas\u0131yla birlikte y\u00fczde 4.5\u2019lik bir k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131 bekleniyor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Bu durum, geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelere ihracat\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131nda yava\u015flama ya\u015fanabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor. Buna ra\u011fmen, ihracat art\u0131\u015f h\u0131z\u0131m\u0131z\u0131n negatife d\u00f6nme ihtimalinin halen zay\u0131f oldu\u011funu vurgulayal\u0131m. T\u00fcrkiye, bu y\u0131l ihracatta 250 milyar dolar hedefini tutturabilir. Zira, TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kayb\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra Asya\u2019daki tedarik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131lar\u0131 ve y\u00fcksek ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131k maliyetleri ihracat\u00e7\u0131lar\u0131m\u0131za belli avantajlar sunmaya devam ediyor.<\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>ENERJ\u0130 MAL\u0130YETLER\u0130<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Y\u00fcksek enflasyon ve faizden dolay\u0131 t\u00fcketim mal\u0131 ithalat\u0131m\u0131z ge\u00e7en seneye k\u0131yasla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f kaydedebilir. Ancak, enerji maliyetlerindeki ba\u015f d\u00f6nd\u00fcr\u00fcc\u00fc art\u0131\u015f, ithalat faturam\u0131z\u0131 kabart\u0131yor. Enerjinin bu y\u0131l cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131ndaki en b\u00fcy\u00fck risk kalemi oldu\u011funu belirtmek abart\u0131l\u0131 olmayacakt\u0131r. \u015eu anki mevcut tablo, k\u0131sa vadede enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe ge\u00e7me ihtimalinin d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Riskler yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc. K\u00fcresel enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131 rahatlatabilecek iki unsur var: <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Rusya-Ukrayna geriliminin normalle\u015fmesi ve ABD ile \u0130ran aras\u0131nda yeni bir anla\u015fmaya do\u011fru ad\u0131mlar at\u0131lmas\u0131. E\u011fer jeopolitik meselelerde belli mesafeler kat edilebilirse, enerji fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n a\u015fa\u011f\u0131ya gelmesi m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olabilir. Aksi takdirde, k\u00fcresel piyasalarda petrol fiyatlar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00fc\u00e7 haneli rakamlar telaffuz edilebilir. <\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> <strong>TUR\u0130ZM GEL\u0130RLER\u0130<\/strong><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"><\/span><br><span class=\"large\"> Son olarak turizm gelirlerini inceleyelim. Rusya ve Ukrayna, turizm sekt\u00f6r\u00fcm\u00fcz a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan iki \u00f6nemli \u00fclke olmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen bu ikili aras\u0131ndaki jeopolitik gerilimin artmas\u0131, \u015fu a\u015famada turizm gelirlerinde dramatik bir de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fe neden olmayabilir. TL\u2019deki de\u011fer kay\u0131plar\u0131 T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi olduk\u00e7a cazip bir turizm destinasyonu haline getirdi. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla, jeopolitik risklerden do\u011fabilecek turist kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131 telafi etmek bu y\u0131l \u00e7ok zor olmayabilir. Turizm gelirlerinde 2022 hedefimiz 35 milyar dolar. Turizm hedeflerinin tutturulmas\u0131, cari fazla i\u00e7in olduk\u00e7a belirleyici olacak.<\/span><\/p>  \t\t\t\t","slug":"cari-islemler-hesabinin-2022-gorunumu","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Cari i\u015flemler hesab\u0131n\u0131n 2022 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc","meta_description":"DO\u00c7. DR. NURULLAH G\u00dcR","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1063,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}