{"status":true,"post":{"id":19954,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:41:50","created_at":"2019-02-24T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:41:50.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":19954,"is_featured":0,"title":"Bir kez daha \u2018ofsayt\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcler","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

10 A\u011fustos 2018\u2019de, ABD y\u00f6netiminin \u2018do\u011frudan ekonomik sald\u0131r\u0131\u2019s\u0131na u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, kimi k\u00fcresel \u00e7evrelerin ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki uzant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcmidi, 2006\u2019dan beri pek \u00e7ok hainlikle, tuzakla y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olan bir dizi operasyonun T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye diz \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fcrtememi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131nc\u0131yla piyasalar \u00fczerinden son bir gayretle istedikleri sonucu alabilmekti. Bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u2018k\u00fcresel\u2019 bir ekonomik sald\u0131r\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye paralize olacak, ekonomik sistem \u00e7\u00f6kecek ve \u00fclke Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF) kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7almak zorunda kalacakt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece IMF \u00fczerinden dayat\u0131lacak tedbir ve kurallarla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi proje yapamaz, b\u00fcy\u00fcyemez, istihdam\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131ramaz hale getirip, ekonominin \u2018i\u00e7e do\u011fru\u2019 \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden siyasi sonu\u00e7 elde etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facaklard\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

JCR\u2019YE G\u00d6RE IMF BAHS\u0130 KAPANDI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin reformlarla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015f kaslar\u0131n\u0131, h\u0131zl\u0131 refleks g\u00f6sterme becerisini, fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve finansal istikrara y\u00f6nelik topyekun m\u00fccadele yol haritas\u0131 olu\u015fturabilme kabiliyetini hi\u00e7e sayarak, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin \u00e7abalar\u0131na ve alg\u0131s\u0131na do\u011frudan sald\u0131rarak, \u2018T\u00fcrkiye IMF\u2019ye muhta\u00e7\u2019 propagandas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fcler.<\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ise T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin de\u011ferlendirme not seviyesini hi\u00e7bir zaman hak etmedi\u011fi d\u00fczeye indirmek i\u00e7in adeta yar\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar. Dolar kurunun 7.8, hatta 10 lira olaca\u011f\u0131na dair \u2018vah\u015fi\u2019 iddialara kap\u0131lan bir kesim, g\u00f6z\u00fc kara d\u00f6viz toplad\u0131. Bug\u00fcn, pahal\u0131 d\u00f6vizle kalakalm\u0131\u015f grup \u2018\u00e7ok pi\u015fman\u2019. Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu JCR, T\u00fcrk finansal piyasalar\u0131nda bir dengelenme ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00fclke reytingi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminin temel koruyuculuk vasf\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve \u2018IMF\u2019 bahsinin kapand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, Japon finans kurumu Nomura, dolar kurunun 5 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131na inebilece\u011finden s\u00f6z ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye Bankalar Birli\u011fi (TBB) ise derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Standard & Poor\u2019s\u2019un (S&P) T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131yla ilgili a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n temelsiz oldu\u011funu vurgulayarak, kurulu\u015fun a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kendine has \u00f6zelliklerini ve g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn tecr\u00fcbesini ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn dinamizmini yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. S&P\u2019nin de\u011ferlendirmesinin T\u00fcrkiye bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn tecr\u00fcbelerini yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen TBB, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn aktif kalitesindeki bozulman\u0131n y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmenin, hem bankac\u0131l\u0131k hem de reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir haks\u0131zl\u0131k oldu\u011funu, bilhassa \u00fcst\u00fcne basa basa dile getirmi\u015f. Derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ve art niyetli finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n \u2018ofsayt\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fckleri bir ortamda, nisan ay\u0131 i\u00e7in \u2018karanl\u0131k senaryo\u2019 pe\u015finde ko\u015fanlar daha da h\u00fcsrana u\u011frayacaklar.<\/span><\/p>

TEDB\u0130RLER\u0130N ETK\u0130S\u0130 AY AY PER\u00c7\u0130NLENECEK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ki, Beyaz Saray\u2019a sunulan raporda, Alman ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ABD\u2019nin ulusal g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in tehdit ilan ediliyor. <\/span><\/p>

AB liderleri ve \u00f6nde gelen kurumlar\u0131, Ba\u015fkan Trump ve ekibinin s\u00f6zleri, raporlar\u0131 ve tehditleri nedeniyle her g\u00fcn bir ba\u015fka \u015fok ya\u015f\u0131yorlar. T\u00fcrkiye, i\u015fte b\u00f6yle bir k\u00fcresel ortamda, ekonomisini \u2018dengeleme\u2019ye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, seri bir \u015fekilde devreye al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olan direkt kontrol politikalar\u0131n\u0131n etkilerinin her ay daha da per\u00e7inlendi\u011fini, daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6zlemleyece\u011fiz. <\/span><\/p>

Ekonomi alan\u0131ndaki tedbirlerin piyasalardaki kal\u0131c\u0131 etkisi, 3-6-9 ayl\u0131k periyotlar halinde y\u00fcr\u00fcr. Bu vesileyle tanzim sat\u0131\u015f noktalar\u0131n\u0131n tar\u0131m ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki reg\u00fcle edici, piyasay\u0131 rahatlat\u0131c\u0131 birincil d\u00fczeydeki etkilerini ilk 3 ayda, ikincil d\u00fczeyde daha kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcdeki etkilerini ise 6 ile 9 ay aras\u0131nda g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Fiyat istikrar\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak olumlu tablo, ekonomi \u00e7evrelerinin enflasyon beklentilerinin de iyile\u015fmesini sa\u011flayarak, ayn\u0131 zamanda ekonominin genel faiz hadleri seviyesine de h\u0131zla olumlu y\u00f6nde yans\u0131yacak.<\/span><\/p>

Bu noktada, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn makul d\u00fczeyde maliyetle finansman kayna\u011f\u0131na ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamaya y\u00f6nelik her t\u00fcrl\u00fc tedbir de, ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ayr\u0131 bir \u00f6neme sahip. Kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 burada kritik bir \u00f6nem arz ediyor. T\u00fcrkiye, \u2018neoliberal\u2019 r\u00fczgarlar\u0131n etkisine kap\u0131larak, 2008 ve \u00f6ncesinde kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zelle\u015ftirilmesinde aceleci davranm\u0131\u015f olsayd\u0131; bug\u00fcn para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra finans sisteminde reel sekt\u00f6r <\/span>lehine reg\u00fcle edici bir ortam\u0131 olu\u015fturmak ad\u0131na, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin elindeki en \u00f6nemli hareket kabiliyetlerinden birini kaybetmi\u015f olacakt\u0131k.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"bir-kez-daha-ofsayta-dustuler","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Bir kez daha \u2018ofsayt\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcler","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":114,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":20053,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":19954,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Bir kez daha \u2018ofsayt\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcler","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

10 A\u011fustos 2018\u2019de, ABD y\u00f6netiminin \u2018do\u011frudan ekonomik sald\u0131r\u0131\u2019s\u0131na u\u011frad\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, kimi k\u00fcresel \u00e7evrelerin ve T\u00fcrkiye\u2019deki uzant\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n en b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00fcmidi, 2006\u2019dan beri pek \u00e7ok hainlikle, tuzakla y\u00fcr\u00fct\u00fclm\u00fc\u015f olan bir dizi operasyonun T\u00fcrkiye\u2019ye diz \u00e7\u00f6kt\u00fcrtememi\u015f olmas\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131nc\u0131yla piyasalar \u00fczerinden son bir gayretle istedikleri sonucu alabilmekti. Bu \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u2018k\u00fcresel\u2019 bir ekonomik sald\u0131r\u0131yla T\u00fcrkiye paralize olacak, ekonomik sistem \u00e7\u00f6kecek ve \u00fclke Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu\u2019nun (IMF) kap\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7almak zorunda kalacakt\u0131. B\u00f6ylece IMF \u00fczerinden dayat\u0131lacak tedbir ve kurallarla T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi proje yapamaz, b\u00fcy\u00fcyemez, istihdam\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131ramaz hale getirip, ekonominin \u2018i\u00e7e do\u011fru\u2019 \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnden siyasi sonu\u00e7 elde etmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015facaklard\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

JCR\u2019YE G\u00d6RE IMF BAHS\u0130 KAPANDI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin reformlarla g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015f kaslar\u0131n\u0131, h\u0131zl\u0131 refleks g\u00f6sterme becerisini, fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve finansal istikrara y\u00f6nelik topyekun m\u00fccadele yol haritas\u0131 olu\u015fturabilme kabiliyetini hi\u00e7e sayarak, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin \u00e7abalar\u0131na ve alg\u0131s\u0131na do\u011frudan sald\u0131rarak, \u2018T\u00fcrkiye IMF\u2019ye muhta\u00e7\u2019 propagandas\u0131n\u0131 y\u00fcr\u00fctt\u00fcler.<\/span><\/p>

Uluslararas\u0131 derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ise T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin de\u011ferlendirme not seviyesini hi\u00e7bir zaman hak etmedi\u011fi d\u00fczeye indirmek i\u00e7in adeta yar\u0131\u015ft\u0131lar. Dolar kurunun 7.8, hatta 10 lira olaca\u011f\u0131na dair \u2018vah\u015fi\u2019 iddialara kap\u0131lan bir kesim, g\u00f6z\u00fc kara d\u00f6viz toplad\u0131. Bug\u00fcn, pahal\u0131 d\u00f6vizle kalakalm\u0131\u015f grup \u2018\u00e7ok pi\u015fman\u2019. Kredi derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu JCR, T\u00fcrk finansal piyasalar\u0131nda bir dengelenme ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131 ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, \u00fclke reytingi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan T\u00fcrk bankac\u0131l\u0131k sisteminin temel koruyuculuk vasf\u0131n\u0131 h\u00e2l\u00e2 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc ve \u2018IMF\u2019 bahsinin kapand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtirken, Japon finans kurumu Nomura, dolar kurunun 5 TL\u2019nin alt\u0131na inebilece\u011finden s\u00f6z ediyor.<\/span><\/p>

T\u00fcrkiye Bankalar Birli\u011fi (TBB) ise derecelendirme kurulu\u015fu Standard & Poor\u2019s\u2019un (S&P) T\u00fcrk bankalar\u0131yla ilgili a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n temelsiz oldu\u011funu vurgulayarak, kurulu\u015fun a\u00e7\u0131klamalar\u0131n\u0131n T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin kendine has \u00f6zelliklerini ve g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fc, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn tecr\u00fcbesini ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn dinamizmini yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret ediyor. S&P\u2019nin de\u011ferlendirmesinin T\u00fcrkiye bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn tecr\u00fcbelerini yans\u0131tmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n alt\u0131n\u0131 \u00e7izen TBB, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn aktif kalitesindeki bozulman\u0131n y\u00fcksek olaca\u011f\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmenin, hem bankac\u0131l\u0131k hem de reel sekt\u00f6r i\u00e7in b\u00fcy\u00fck bir haks\u0131zl\u0131k oldu\u011funu, bilhassa \u00fcst\u00fcne basa basa dile getirmi\u015f. Derecelendirme kurulu\u015flar\u0131 ve art niyetli finans kurumlar\u0131n\u0131n \u2018ofsayt\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fckleri bir ortamda, nisan ay\u0131 i\u00e7in \u2018karanl\u0131k senaryo\u2019 pe\u015finde ko\u015fanlar daha da h\u00fcsrana u\u011frayacaklar.<\/span><\/p>

TEDB\u0130RLER\u0130N ETK\u0130S\u0130 AY AY PER\u00c7\u0130NLENECEK<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

Bir d\u00fcnya d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn ki, Beyaz Saray\u2019a sunulan raporda, Alman ara\u00e7lar\u0131 ABD\u2019nin ulusal g\u00fcvenli\u011fi i\u00e7in tehdit ilan ediliyor. <\/span><\/p>

AB liderleri ve \u00f6nde gelen kurumlar\u0131, Ba\u015fkan Trump ve ekibinin s\u00f6zleri, raporlar\u0131 ve tehditleri nedeniyle her g\u00fcn bir ba\u015fka \u015fok ya\u015f\u0131yorlar. T\u00fcrkiye, i\u015fte b\u00f6yle bir k\u00fcresel ortamda, ekonomisini \u2018dengeleme\u2019ye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Bu nedenle, seri bir \u015fekilde devreye al\u0131nm\u0131\u015f olan direkt kontrol politikalar\u0131n\u0131n etkilerinin her ay daha da per\u00e7inlendi\u011fini, daha da g\u00fc\u00e7lendi\u011fini g\u00f6zlemleyece\u011fiz. <\/span><\/p>

Ekonomi alan\u0131ndaki tedbirlerin piyasalardaki kal\u0131c\u0131 etkisi, 3-6-9 ayl\u0131k periyotlar halinde y\u00fcr\u00fcr. Bu vesileyle tanzim sat\u0131\u015f noktalar\u0131n\u0131n tar\u0131m ve g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131 \u00fczerindeki reg\u00fcle edici, piyasay\u0131 rahatlat\u0131c\u0131 birincil d\u00fczeydeki etkilerini ilk 3 ayda, ikincil d\u00fczeyde daha kal\u0131c\u0131 \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcdeki etkilerini ise 6 ile 9 ay aras\u0131nda g\u00f6rece\u011fiz. Fiyat istikrar\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak olumlu tablo, ekonomi \u00e7evrelerinin enflasyon beklentilerinin de iyile\u015fmesini sa\u011flayarak, ayn\u0131 zamanda ekonominin genel faiz hadleri seviyesine de h\u0131zla olumlu y\u00f6nde yans\u0131yacak.<\/span><\/p>

Bu noktada, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn makul d\u00fczeyde maliyetle finansman kayna\u011f\u0131na ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamaya y\u00f6nelik her t\u00fcrl\u00fc tedbir de, ekonominin b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve istihdam ko\u015fullar\u0131n\u0131n s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan ayr\u0131 bir \u00f6neme sahip. Kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 burada kritik bir \u00f6nem arz ediyor. T\u00fcrkiye, \u2018neoliberal\u2019 r\u00fczgarlar\u0131n etkisine kap\u0131larak, 2008 ve \u00f6ncesinde kamu bankalar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zelle\u015ftirilmesinde aceleci davranm\u0131\u015f olsayd\u0131; bug\u00fcn para ve maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n yan\u0131 s\u0131ra finans sisteminde reel sekt\u00f6r <\/span>lehine reg\u00fcle edici bir ortam\u0131 olu\u015fturmak ad\u0131na, ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin elindeki en \u00f6nemli hareket kabiliyetlerinden birini kaybetmi\u015f olacakt\u0131k.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"bir-kez-daha-ofsayta-dustuler","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Bir kez daha \u2018ofsayt\u2019a d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcler","meta_description":"Prof. Dr. Kerem Alkin","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":114,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}