{"status":true,"post":{"id":38530,"user_id":23,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2023-04-03 08:12:00","created_at":"2023-04-03T05:12:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2023-04-03T05:12:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":38530,"is_featured":0,"title":"Bankac\u0131l\u0131k krizinin global etkileri","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019de bir s\u00fcredir ya\u015fanan bankac\u0131l\u0131k krizi, baz\u0131 \u00f6ncelikleri de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Daha \u00f6nce 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon hedefi konusunda \u0131srarl\u0131 olan, gerekirse vatanda\u015flar\u0131n bile can\u0131n\u0131n yanabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ifade eden Fed, son toplant\u0131s\u0131nda son derece ciddi say\u0131labilecek politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine gitti ve 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n son olabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Son derece g\u00fcvercin a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla piyasay\u0131 sakinle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortadayd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019de ya\u015fanan banka batma hadiselerinin detay\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, iki fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Birincisi, kademeli olarak y\u00fckseltilen faizler nedeniyle tahvil portf\u00f6y\u00fc zararlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k katlan\u0131labilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, di\u011feri de bankalar\u0131n likidite \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 son derece savunmas\u0131z oldu\u011fudur.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn en \u00f6nemli de\u011feri g\u00fcven m\u00fcessesesidir. E\u011fer mevduat sahibi paras\u0131n\u0131 geri alamayaca\u011f\u0131 tedirginli\u011fine girerse paras\u0131n\u0131 hemen bankadan \u00e7ekmeye ba\u015flar. O zaman banka likit varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ve di\u011fer bankalar nezdindeki kredi limitlerini kullanarak \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre idare eder. Ancak bu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir durum de\u011fildir. \u00dclkemizde de bu ac\u0131 tecr\u00fcbe ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f, likidite \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 baz\u0131 bankalar\u0131n taahh\u00fctlerini yerine getiremeyecek boyutlara gelmesine neden olmu\u015ftu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Temerr\u00fct oran\u0131 rekor seviyede<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Fitch Ratings, 2020\u2019den bu yana 9 farkl\u0131 \u00fclkede 14 ayr\u0131 temerr\u00fct ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 2000-2019 d\u00f6neminde ise 13 farkl\u0131 \u00fclkede 19 temerr\u00fct ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini bildirdi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Kredi notu verdikleri \u00fclkelerden 5\u2019inin temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcklerini belirten Fitch, bu \u00fclkeleri Belarus, L\u00fcbnan, Gana, Sri Lanka ve Zambiya olarak s\u0131ralad\u0131. 8 \u00fclke i\u00e7in kredi notunun CCC+ veya alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu ve 9 \u00fclkenin notunun B- seviyesinde bulundu\u011funu ifade eden Fitch, 1995-2021 aras\u0131nda C\u2019den CCC+\u2019ya kadar notu olan \u00fclkelerin k\u00fcm\u00fclatif 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k temerr\u00fct oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 40.6 oldu\u011funu da belirtti.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bunun yan\u0131nda ayn\u0131 kurumun a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na g\u00f6re, devlet bor\u00e7lanma ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131nda temerr\u00fct oran\u0131 rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Barclays stratejisti Joseph Abate, m\u00fc\u015fterilerin kendileri i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n para piyasas\u0131 fonlar\u0131nda mevcut oldu\u011funa uyanmalar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi i\u00e7in yeni bir mevduat \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n gelmekte oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.\u00a0Bu durumda mevduattan para piyasas\u0131 fonlar\u0131na kayma olabilir. O zaman bankalar\u0131n likidite \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapma tedirginli\u011fine girebilece\u011fini, bu durumda uzun vadeli fonlamalardan da ka\u00e7\u0131nabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Paraya ula\u015fmak zorla\u015facak<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu durumda global anlamda kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kabilecek riskleri \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131ralayabiliriz:<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

* Bor\u00e7 \u00e7evirimi daha da s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

* Yeni bor\u00e7 bulmak \u00e7ok kolay olmayabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

* Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke fonlar\u0131na para giri\u015fi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak azalabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

* Resesyon derinle\u015febilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bankalar aras\u0131nda var olan \u2018dealing\u2019 ad\u0131 verilen sistemle para al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fi \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan batan bankalar\u0131n, arkas\u0131ndan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n neresinde ve hangi bankay\u0131 pe\u015finden s\u00fcr\u00fckleyebilece\u011fini kestirmek zordur. Bu durumda paraya ula\u015fmak \u00e7ok daha zor olacakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"bankacilik-krizinin-global-etkileri","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1495,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":23,"name":"H\u0130KMET","surname":"BAYDAR","email":"hikmet-baydar@gmail.com","slug":"hikmet-baydar","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/1733691600m8IdzrjJsMVvSMC.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-19T14:42:06.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:49:02.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":38656,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":38530,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Bankac\u0131l\u0131k krizinin global etkileri","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"H\u0130KMET BAYDAR","content":"

<\/span><\/strong>\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

hikmetbaydar@3-goz.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019de bir s\u00fcredir ya\u015fanan bankac\u0131l\u0131k krizi, baz\u0131 \u00f6ncelikleri de\u011fi\u015ftirdi. Daha \u00f6nce 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyon hedefi konusunda \u0131srarl\u0131 olan, gerekirse vatanda\u015flar\u0131n bile can\u0131n\u0131n yanabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131k\u00e7a ifade eden Fed, son toplant\u0131s\u0131nda son derece ciddi say\u0131labilecek politika de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine gitti ve 25 baz puanl\u0131k faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n son olabilece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Son derece g\u00fcvercin a\u00e7\u0131klamalarla piyasay\u0131 sakinle\u015ftirmeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 ortadayd\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

ABD\u2019de ya\u015fanan banka batma hadiselerinin detay\u0131na bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, iki fakt\u00f6r\u00fcn \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz. Birincisi, kademeli olarak y\u00fckseltilen faizler nedeniyle tahvil portf\u00f6y\u00fc zararlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131k katlan\u0131labilir olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131, di\u011feri de bankalar\u0131n likidite \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 son derece savunmas\u0131z oldu\u011fudur.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn en \u00f6nemli de\u011feri g\u00fcven m\u00fcessesesidir. E\u011fer mevduat sahibi paras\u0131n\u0131 geri alamayaca\u011f\u0131 tedirginli\u011fine girerse paras\u0131n\u0131 hemen bankadan \u00e7ekmeye ba\u015flar. O zaman banka likit varl\u0131klar\u0131n\u0131n ve di\u011fer bankalar nezdindeki kredi limitlerini kullanarak \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 bir s\u00fcre idare eder. Ancak bu s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir durum de\u011fildir. \u00dclkemizde de bu ac\u0131 tecr\u00fcbe ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015f, likidite \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131 baz\u0131 bankalar\u0131n taahh\u00fctlerini yerine getiremeyecek boyutlara gelmesine neden olmu\u015ftu.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Temerr\u00fct oran\u0131 rekor seviyede<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Fitch Ratings, 2020\u2019den bu yana 9 farkl\u0131 \u00fclkede 14 ayr\u0131 temerr\u00fct ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131, 2000-2019 d\u00f6neminde ise 13 farkl\u0131 \u00fclkede 19 temerr\u00fct ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti\u011fini bildirdi.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Kredi notu verdikleri \u00fclkelerden 5\u2019inin temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcklerini belirten Fitch, bu \u00fclkeleri Belarus, L\u00fcbnan, Gana, Sri Lanka ve Zambiya olarak s\u0131ralad\u0131. 8 \u00fclke i\u00e7in kredi notunun CCC+ veya alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu ve 9 \u00fclkenin notunun B- seviyesinde bulundu\u011funu ifade eden Fitch, 1995-2021 aras\u0131nda C\u2019den CCC+\u2019ya kadar notu olan \u00fclkelerin k\u00fcm\u00fclatif 5 y\u0131ll\u0131k temerr\u00fct oran\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 40.6 oldu\u011funu da belirtti.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bunun yan\u0131nda ayn\u0131 kurumun a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131na g\u00f6re, devlet bor\u00e7lanma ka\u011f\u0131tlar\u0131nda temerr\u00fct oran\u0131 rekor seviyeye \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Barclays stratejisti Joseph Abate, m\u00fc\u015fterilerin kendileri i\u00e7in daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n para piyasas\u0131 fonlar\u0131nda mevcut oldu\u011funa uyanmalar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak bankac\u0131l\u0131k sistemi i\u00e7in yeni bir mevduat \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f dalgas\u0131n\u0131n gelmekte oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yledi.\u00a0Bu durumda mevduattan para piyasas\u0131 fonlar\u0131na kayma olabilir. O zaman bankalar\u0131n likidite \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015f\u0131na haz\u0131rl\u0131k yapma tedirginli\u011fine girebilece\u011fini, bu durumda uzun vadeli fonlamalardan da ka\u00e7\u0131nabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Paraya ula\u015fmak zorla\u015facak<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu durumda global anlamda kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131za \u00e7\u0131kabilecek riskleri \u015f\u00f6yle s\u0131ralayabiliriz:<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

* Bor\u00e7 \u00e7evirimi daha da s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 olabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

* Yeni bor\u00e7 bulmak \u00e7ok kolay olmayabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

* Geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke fonlar\u0131na para giri\u015fi risk i\u015ftah\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak azalabilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

* Resesyon derinle\u015febilir.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bankalar aras\u0131nda var olan \u2018dealing\u2019 ad\u0131 verilen sistemle para al\u0131\u015fveri\u015fi \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 oldu\u011fundan batan bankalar\u0131n, arkas\u0131ndan d\u00fcnyan\u0131n neresinde ve hangi bankay\u0131 pe\u015finden s\u00fcr\u00fckleyebilece\u011fini kestirmek zordur. Bu durumda paraya ula\u015fmak \u00e7ok daha zor olacakt\u0131r.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"bankacilik-krizinin-global-etkileri","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":1495,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}