{"status":true,"post":{"id":48360,"user_id":11,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2024-02-05 08:41:00","created_at":"2024-02-05T05:41:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-02-05T05:41:00.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":48360,"is_featured":0,"title":"Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ve Euro\u2019nun 2024 s\u0131nav\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"

keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Gerek Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (AB) ortak para birimi b\u00f6lgesi olarak Euro B\u00f6lgesi, gerekse de ortak para birimi olarak Euro i\u00e7in 2024 zorlu bir s\u0131nav y\u0131l\u0131 olacak. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen analiz ve senaryolar, Euro-dolar paritesinin bu y\u0131l 1.15 dolara do\u011fru toparlanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fi kadar Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu ciddi ekonomik ve siyasi zorluklar nedeniyle paritenin y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde 1.02 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcne de i\u015faret ediyor. Bu y\u0131l, Avrupa i\u00e7in zorlu bir se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131. Bel\u00e7ika, Avusturya, Portekiz, Slovakya, H\u0131rvatistan ve Litvanya\u2019daki se\u00e7imler bir yana, g\u00f6zler esas 6-9 Haziran 2024 tarihleri aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak olan Avrupa Parlamentosu (AP) se\u00e7imlerinde.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

AB genelinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f partilerin her zamankinden daha da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde AP se\u00e7imlerinden ba\u015far\u0131yla \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklenti iyice g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015f durumda. Bu durum, k\u0131sa, orta ve uzun vadede AB genelinde para politikas\u0131, maliye politikas\u0131, \u00e7evre ve enerji politikalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pek \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 da beraberinde getirebilir. Ayr\u0131ca, AP se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131nda AB Konseyi ve Komisyonu se\u00e7imleri de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. AB\u2019nin mevcut komisyonu daha \u00e7evreci, daha ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm taraftar\u0131, para ve maliye politikalar\u0131nda daha \u2018s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131\u2019 anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 temsil eden bir komisyon.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

YEN\u0130 POL\u0130T\u0130KA DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130M\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

705 \u00fcyesinin yenilenece\u011fi AP se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131nda, hem Avrupa Komisyonu hem de Avrupa Konseyi\u2019nin en \u00fcst d\u00fczey isimlerinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler, yukar\u0131da belirtti\u011fimiz stratejik alanlarda Euro\u2019nun de\u011ferini etkileyecek yeni politika de\u011fi\u015fimi aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n tetiklenmesine sebep olabilir. Nitekim, AB Konseyi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Michel\u2019in 6-9 Haziran\u2019da yap\u0131lacak AP se\u00e7imlerinde aday olmaya karar verdi\u011fini ve se\u00e7ilirse mevcut g\u00f6revini erken b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurmas\u0131, AB\u2019de \u015fimdiden belirsizlik ve endi\u015feye yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu durumda, AB\u2019nin Ukrayna politikas\u0131, ekonomi politikalar\u0131, \u00e7evre ve enerji politikalar\u0131 da ciddi bir s\u0131namadan ge\u00e7ebilir.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in bir ba\u015fka \u00f6nemli s\u0131nav da Covid-19 k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131ndan bu yana s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen hane halk\u0131na ve KOB\u0130\u2019lere y\u00f6nelik destekleyici mali yard\u0131mlar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tart\u0131\u015fmalar. Mevcut AB Komisyonu, maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yineliyor. Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ve s\u0131cak gerginliklerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu enerji t\u00fcrevlerinin fiyatlar\u0131nda gev\u015femeyi engellerken, AB\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcnde hane halk\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ile bo\u011fu\u015furken, Komisyon\u2019un enerji destek tedbirlerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcye \u00fclkelerden talep etmesi, endi\u015feleri art\u0131rmas\u0131 bir yana, AP se\u00e7imlerini de etkiler mi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde analizleri de h\u0131zland\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

ALMANYA\u2019NIN BOR\u00c7 TAVANI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu konuda en zorlu s\u0131navdan ge\u00e7en \u00fclke ise Almanya. AB\u2019nin kamu bor\u00e7 stoku ve b\u00fct\u00e7e kriterleri do\u011frultusunda, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131 s\u00fcreci, Alman Anayasa Mahkemesi\u2019nin ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda h\u00fck\u00fcmetin iklim ve enerji programlar\u0131 i\u00e7in finansman plan\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc hukuka ayk\u0131r\u0131 ilan etmesiyle iyice karma\u015f\u0131k hale gelmi\u015f durumda. Anayasa Mahkemesi\u2019nin karar\u0131, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n kamu maliyesi alan\u0131nda 60 milyar Euro\u2019luk bir a\u00e7\u0131kla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmas\u0131na sebep olabilir. Almanya ve Avrupa genelinde ise hane halk\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, iklim, yenilenebilir enerji gibi alanlarda yapmalar\u0131 gereken yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in AB b\u00fct\u00e7e ve bor\u00e7 stoku kurallar\u0131n\u0131n esnetilmesini talep ederken, bilhassa kimi ekonomistler mali disiplinden taviz verilmemesini savunuyor. AB\u2019de ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tart\u0131\u015fmalar ile ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerine y\u00f6nelik senaryolar\u0131 da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc s\u00fcrecine katt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, Euro\u2019nun bu y\u0131l zorlu bir s\u0131navdan ge\u00e7ece\u011fi a\u015fikar.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"avrupanin-ve-euronun-2024-sinavi","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1707080400PGafdUWFtrPfvBt.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":3541,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":11,"name":"KEREM","surname":"ALK\u0130N","email":"irem05@daglaroglu.com","slug":"prof-dr-kerem-alkin","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916000GNrERW0ucj2Ja7.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:50:43.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":48486,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":48360,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n ve Euro\u2019nun 2024 s\u0131nav\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. KEREM ALK\u0130N","content":"

keremalkin@superonline.com<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Gerek Avrupa Birli\u011fi\u2019nin (AB) ortak para birimi b\u00f6lgesi olarak Euro B\u00f6lgesi, gerekse de ortak para birimi olarak Euro i\u00e7in 2024 zorlu bir s\u0131nav y\u0131l\u0131 olacak. Y\u0131lba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00f6zlenen analiz ve senaryolar, Euro-dolar paritesinin bu y\u0131l 1.15 dolara do\u011fru toparlanaca\u011f\u0131na i\u015faret etti\u011fi kadar Avrupa\u2019n\u0131n kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya oldu\u011fu ciddi ekonomik ve siyasi zorluklar nedeniyle paritenin y\u0131l i\u00e7erisinde 1.02 dolar\u0131 g\u00f6rebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcne de i\u015faret ediyor. Bu y\u0131l, Avrupa i\u00e7in zorlu bir se\u00e7im y\u0131l\u0131. Bel\u00e7ika, Avusturya, Portekiz, Slovakya, H\u0131rvatistan ve Litvanya\u2019daki se\u00e7imler bir yana, g\u00f6zler esas 6-9 Haziran 2024 tarihleri aras\u0131nda yap\u0131lacak olan Avrupa Parlamentosu (AP) se\u00e7imlerinde.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

AB genelinde a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 sa\u011f partilerin her zamankinden daha da g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde AP se\u00e7imlerinden ba\u015far\u0131yla \u00e7\u0131kaca\u011f\u0131na dair beklenti iyice g\u00fc\u00e7lenmi\u015f durumda. Bu durum, k\u0131sa, orta ve uzun vadede AB genelinde para politikas\u0131, maliye politikas\u0131, \u00e7evre ve enerji politikalar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik pek \u00e7ok tart\u0131\u015fmay\u0131 da beraberinde getirebilir. Ayr\u0131ca, AP se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131nda AB Konseyi ve Komisyonu se\u00e7imleri de ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek. AB\u2019nin mevcut komisyonu daha \u00e7evreci, daha ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm taraftar\u0131, para ve maliye politikalar\u0131nda daha \u2018s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131\u2019 anlay\u0131\u015f\u0131 temsil eden bir komisyon.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

YEN\u0130 POL\u0130T\u0130KA DE\u011e\u0130\u015e\u0130M\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

705 \u00fcyesinin yenilenece\u011fi AP se\u00e7imleri sonras\u0131nda, hem Avrupa Komisyonu hem de Avrupa Konseyi\u2019nin en \u00fcst d\u00fczey isimlerinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak olas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fiklikler, yukar\u0131da belirtti\u011fimiz stratejik alanlarda Euro\u2019nun de\u011ferini etkileyecek yeni politika de\u011fi\u015fimi aray\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n tetiklenmesine sebep olabilir. Nitekim, AB Konseyi Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Michel\u2019in 6-9 Haziran\u2019da yap\u0131lacak AP se\u00e7imlerinde aday olmaya karar verdi\u011fini ve se\u00e7ilirse mevcut g\u00f6revini erken b\u0131rakaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 duyurmas\u0131, AB\u2019de \u015fimdiden belirsizlik ve endi\u015feye yol a\u00e7m\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu durumda, AB\u2019nin Ukrayna politikas\u0131, ekonomi politikalar\u0131, \u00e7evre ve enerji politikalar\u0131 da ciddi bir s\u0131namadan ge\u00e7ebilir.<\/span><\/p>


<\/p>

Euro B\u00f6lgesi i\u00e7in bir ba\u015fka \u00f6nemli s\u0131nav da Covid-19 k\u00fcresel vir\u00fcs salg\u0131n\u0131ndan bu yana s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclen hane halk\u0131na ve KOB\u0130\u2019lere y\u00f6nelik destekleyici mali yard\u0131mlar\u0131n azalt\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tart\u0131\u015fmalar. Mevcut AB Komisyonu, maliye politikalar\u0131n\u0131n s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na y\u00f6nelik \u00e7a\u011fr\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131 yineliyor. Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131 ve s\u0131cak gerginliklerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 Orta Do\u011fu enerji t\u00fcrevlerinin fiyatlar\u0131nda gev\u015femeyi engellerken, AB\u2019nin b\u00fct\u00fcn\u00fcnde hane halk\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r y\u00fcksek enerji fiyatlar\u0131 ile bo\u011fu\u015furken, Komisyon\u2019un enerji destek tedbirlerinin azalt\u0131lmas\u0131n\u0131 \u00fcye \u00fclkelerden talep etmesi, endi\u015feleri art\u0131rmas\u0131 bir yana, AP se\u00e7imlerini de etkiler mi y\u00f6n\u00fcnde analizleri de h\u0131zland\u0131rm\u0131\u015f durumda.<\/span><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

ALMANYA\u2019NIN BOR\u00c7 TAVANI<\/span><\/strong><\/p>

\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Bu konuda en zorlu s\u0131navdan ge\u00e7en \u00fclke ise Almanya. AB\u2019nin kamu bor\u00e7 stoku ve b\u00fct\u00e7e kriterleri do\u011frultusunda, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n bor\u00e7 tavan\u0131 s\u00fcreci, Alman Anayasa Mahkemesi\u2019nin ge\u00e7ti\u011fimiz kas\u0131m ay\u0131nda h\u00fck\u00fcmetin iklim ve enerji programlar\u0131 i\u00e7in finansman plan\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nemli bir b\u00f6l\u00fcm\u00fcn\u00fc hukuka ayk\u0131r\u0131 ilan etmesiyle iyice karma\u015f\u0131k hale gelmi\u015f durumda. Anayasa Mahkemesi\u2019nin karar\u0131, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n kamu maliyesi alan\u0131nda 60 milyar Euro\u2019luk bir a\u00e7\u0131kla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kalmas\u0131na sebep olabilir. Almanya ve Avrupa genelinde ise hane halk\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r ye\u015fil d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm, iklim, yenilenebilir enerji gibi alanlarda yapmalar\u0131 gereken yat\u0131r\u0131mlar i\u00e7in AB b\u00fct\u00e7e ve bor\u00e7 stoku kurallar\u0131n\u0131n esnetilmesini talep ederken, bilhassa kimi ekonomistler mali disiplinden taviz verilmemesini savunuyor. AB\u2019de ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131na y\u00f6nelik tart\u0131\u015fmalar ile ABD ba\u015fkanl\u0131k se\u00e7imlerine y\u00f6nelik senaryolar\u0131 da \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fc s\u00fcrecine katt\u0131\u011f\u0131m\u0131zda, Euro\u2019nun bu y\u0131l zorlu bir s\u0131navdan ge\u00e7ece\u011fi a\u015fikar.<\/span><\/p>","slug":"avrupanin-ve-euronun-2024-sinavi","orjinalimage":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1707080400PGafdUWFtrPfvBt.webp","news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/1707080400PGafdUWFtrPfvBt.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"view_count":3541,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}