{"status":true,"post":{"id":19538,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-24 13:37:20","created_at":"2018-12-09T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-24T10:37:20.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":19538,"is_featured":0,"title":"Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda be\u015f kritik toplant\u0131 var","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

2019 y\u0131l\u0131na giderek yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretinde yumu\u015fak ini\u015f olarak adland\u0131rabilece\u011fimiz bir yava\u015flama ba\u015flad\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ise \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ya\u015fanan bozulman\u0131n tamiri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek be\u015f toplant\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutacak.<\/span><\/p>

1. D\u00dcNYADA YUMU\u015eAK \u0130N\u0130\u015e BEKLEN\u0130RKEN FED FA\u0130Z ARTI\u015eLARINI S\u00dcRD\u00dcRECEK M\u0130? <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle finansal piyasalar\u0131 ve ko\u015fullar\u0131 belirleyecek olan ABD merkez bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131 olacak. Fed en son toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yapabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Ancak hem ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r ele\u015ftirileri hem de d\u00fcnyadaki yumu\u015fak ini\u015f yani yava\u015flama beklentileri ile birlikte Fed\u2019in daha az faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidece\u011fi \u015feklinde bir beklenti olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Fed bu beklentiye 18-19 Aral\u0131k tarihlerinde yapaca\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da yan\u0131t verecek. Fed i\u00e7in iki se\u00e7enek olacak. Ya 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in mevcut \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak ve geli\u015fmelere g\u00f6re karar verece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Ya da piyasalar\u0131n beklentisine paralel 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda frene basaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. E\u011fer fren a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 yaparsa zay\u0131flayan bir dolar ve d\u00fc\u015fen faizler ile de\u011ferlenen bir T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. Ancak Fed \u015fimdilik ilk se\u00e7ene\u011fe daha yak\u0131n duruyor.<\/span><\/p>

2. AVRUPA B\u0130RL\u0130\u011e\u0130 YAVA\u015eLARKEN AVRUPA MERKEZ BANKASI GEN\u0130\u015eLEMEY\u0130 B\u0130T\u0130RECEK M\u0130? <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Avrupa Birli\u011fi parasal geni\u015flemenin etkileri ile 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 ve g\u00f6receli h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Enflasyon da giderek y\u00fczde 2.0\u2019ye yakla\u015fmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/span>
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (AMB) da parasal geni\u015flemeyi 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda bitirece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ancak Avrupa Birli\u011fi 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda kademeli olarak yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 2.0\u2019nin de alt\u0131na geriledi. Ayr\u0131ca Brexit belirsizli\u011fi s\u00fcrerken \u0130talya ve Merkel sonras\u0131 Almanya ve AB endi\u015feleri ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu ko\u015fullarda Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n parasal geni\u015flemeyi bitirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu soru da yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 13 Aral\u0131k tarihli AMB toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bulacak. Muhtemelen AMB parasal geni\u015flemeyi uzatacak. <\/span><\/p>

3. \u0130NG\u0130LTERE PARLAMENTOSU BREX\u0130T ANLA\u015eMASINI OYLAYACAK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

AB ile \u0130ngiltere (B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya) ayr\u0131l\u0131k anla\u015fmas\u0131 ile ayr\u0131l\u0131k sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemi \u015fekillendirecek siyasi deklarasyon konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131lar. Ancak bu anla\u015fman\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7ebilmesi i\u00e7in \u0130ngiltere parlamentosunun anla\u015fmalar\u0131 onaylamas\u0131 gerekir. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde bu oylaman\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. Parlamento onay verirse AB ile \u0130ngiltere anla\u015fma sonras\u0131 ili\u015fkiler i\u00e7in m\u00fczakerelere ba\u015flayacak. Parlamento onay vermezse hem \u0130ngiltere\u2019de siyasi bir kriz ya\u015fanacak hem de anla\u015fmas\u0131z ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011fa kadar gidebilecek s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girilecek. \u0130kincisi halinde Euro\u2019nun zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacak.<\/span><\/p>

4. PETROL F\u0130YATLARINDA G\u00d6ZLER OPEC TOPLANTISINDA <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u0130ran\u2019a uygulanacak petrol yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 endi\u015fesi ile petrol fiyatlar\u0131 85 dolara kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015f ve 100 dolara kadar da ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak ABD beklenmedik \u015fekilde \u0130ran\u2019a esnek bir yapt\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flad\u0131. D\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki yava\u015flama ile petrol talebinin zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi de buna ilave olunca petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda beklenmedik ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda bundan sonraki s\u00fcreci petrol \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkelerin politikalar\u0131 belirleyecek. Bu politikalar da 6 Aral\u0131k tarihli OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak. OPEC \u00fcyesi ve di\u011fer \u00fcretici \u00fclkelerin \u00fcretimlerinde yeni bir k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131ya gitme olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 bulunuyor. Bu yap\u0131l\u0131rsa petrol fiyatlar\u0131 60-70 dolar aras\u0131nda istikrar kazanacak. E\u011fer \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131lmaz ise petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda gev\u015feme s\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p>

5. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE DE ASGAR\u0130 \u00dcCRET TOPLANTILARI BA\u015eLIYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131. Enflasyon en \u00e7ok da sabit ve dar gelirli vatanda\u015flar\u0131 olumsuz etkiledi. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken sabit gelirli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar ve vatanda\u015flar \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli i\u015fareti ise asgari \u00fccretteki art\u0131\u015flar veriyor. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 asgari \u00fccretini belirleyecek asgari \u00fccret komisyonu ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 6 Aral\u0131k tarihinde yapacak. Taraflar\u0131n teklifleri asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 da belirlemi\u015f olacak. Asgari \u00fccret \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar i\u00e7in oldu\u011fu kadar 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131larla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fan i\u015fverenler ve firmalar i\u00e7in de \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olacak.<\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki kritik toplant\u0131lar 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 da \u015fekillendirecek. Bu toplant\u0131lar bitmeden 2019 \u00fczerindeki sis bulutu da\u011f\u0131lmayacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"aralik-ayinda-bes-kritik-toplanti-var","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda be\u015f kritik toplant\u0131 var","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":128,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":19637,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":19538,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda be\u015f kritik toplant\u0131 var","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

2019 y\u0131l\u0131na giderek yakla\u015f\u0131yoruz. 2018 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda d\u00fcnya ekonomisi ve ticaretinde yumu\u015fak ini\u015f olarak adland\u0131rabilece\u011fimiz bir yava\u015flama ba\u015flad\u0131. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de ise \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte ya\u015fanan bozulman\u0131n tamiri s\u00fcr\u00fcyor. Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fecek be\u015f toplant\u0131 2019 y\u0131l\u0131na b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutacak.<\/span><\/p>

1. D\u00dcNYADA YUMU\u015eAK \u0130N\u0130\u015e BEKLEN\u0130RKEN FED FA\u0130Z ARTI\u015eLARINI S\u00dcRD\u00dcRECEK M\u0130? <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00f6zellikle finansal piyasalar\u0131 ve ko\u015fullar\u0131 belirleyecek olan ABD merkez bankas\u0131 Fed\u2019in para politikas\u0131 olacak. Fed en son toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 daha yapabilece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu. Ancak hem ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131n\u0131n a\u011f\u0131r ele\u015ftirileri hem de d\u00fcnyadaki yumu\u015fak ini\u015f yani yava\u015flama beklentileri ile birlikte Fed\u2019in daha az faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131na gidece\u011fi \u015feklinde bir beklenti olu\u015fmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Fed bu beklentiye 18-19 Aral\u0131k tarihlerinde yapaca\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131da yan\u0131t verecek. Fed i\u00e7in iki se\u00e7enek olacak. Ya 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in mevcut \u00fc\u00e7 faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131 koruyacak ve geli\u015fmelere g\u00f6re karar verece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. Ya da piyasalar\u0131n beklentisine paralel 2019 y\u0131l\u0131nda faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131nda frene basaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayacak. E\u011fer fren a\u00e7\u0131klamas\u0131 yaparsa zay\u0131flayan bir dolar ve d\u00fc\u015fen faizler ile de\u011ferlenen bir T\u00fcrk Liras\u0131 g\u00f6rebiliriz. Ancak Fed \u015fimdilik ilk se\u00e7ene\u011fe daha yak\u0131n duruyor.<\/span><\/p>

2. AVRUPA B\u0130RL\u0130\u011e\u0130 YAVA\u015eLARKEN AVRUPA MERKEZ BANKASI GEN\u0130\u015eLEMEY\u0130 B\u0130T\u0130RECEK M\u0130? <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

Avrupa Birli\u011fi parasal geni\u015flemenin etkileri ile 2017 y\u0131l\u0131nda kal\u0131c\u0131 ve g\u00f6receli h\u0131zl\u0131 bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme g\u00f6stermi\u015fti. Enflasyon da giderek y\u00fczde 2.0\u2019ye yakla\u015fmaya ba\u015flam\u0131\u015ft\u0131. <\/span>
Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131 (AMB) da parasal geni\u015flemeyi 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 sonunda bitirece\u011fini a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Ancak Avrupa Birli\u011fi 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda kademeli olarak yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 2.0\u2019nin de alt\u0131na geriledi. Ayr\u0131ca Brexit belirsizli\u011fi s\u00fcrerken \u0130talya ve Merkel sonras\u0131 Almanya ve AB endi\u015feleri ortaya \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Bu ko\u015fullarda Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n parasal geni\u015flemeyi bitirme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 da azalmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. Bu soru da yan\u0131t\u0131n\u0131 13 Aral\u0131k tarihli AMB toplant\u0131s\u0131nda bulacak. Muhtemelen AMB parasal geni\u015flemeyi uzatacak. <\/span><\/p>

3. \u0130NG\u0130LTERE PARLAMENTOSU BREX\u0130T ANLA\u015eMASINI OYLAYACAK <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

AB ile \u0130ngiltere (B\u00fcy\u00fck Britanya) ayr\u0131l\u0131k anla\u015fmas\u0131 ile ayr\u0131l\u0131k sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemi \u015fekillendirecek siyasi deklarasyon konusunda anla\u015ft\u0131lar. Ancak bu anla\u015fman\u0131n hayata ge\u00e7ebilmesi i\u00e7in \u0130ngiltere parlamentosunun anla\u015fmalar\u0131 onaylamas\u0131 gerekir. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131 i\u00e7inde bu oylaman\u0131n yap\u0131lmas\u0131 planlan\u0131yor. Parlamento onay verirse AB ile \u0130ngiltere anla\u015fma sonras\u0131 ili\u015fkiler i\u00e7in m\u00fczakerelere ba\u015flayacak. Parlamento onay vermezse hem \u0130ngiltere\u2019de siyasi bir kriz ya\u015fanacak hem de anla\u015fmas\u0131z ayr\u0131l\u0131\u011fa kadar gidebilecek s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 bir d\u00f6neme girilecek. \u0130kincisi halinde Euro\u2019nun zay\u0131flamas\u0131 ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz olacak.<\/span><\/p>

4. PETROL F\u0130YATLARINDA G\u00d6ZLER OPEC TOPLANTISINDA <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

\u0130ran\u2019a uygulanacak petrol yapt\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 endi\u015fesi ile petrol fiyatlar\u0131 85 dolara kadar y\u00fckselmi\u015f ve 100 dolara kadar da ula\u015faca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Ancak ABD beklenmedik \u015fekilde \u0130ran\u2019a esnek bir yapt\u0131r\u0131ma ba\u015flad\u0131. D\u00fcnya ekonomisindeki yava\u015flama ile petrol talebinin zay\u0131flayaca\u011f\u0131 endi\u015fesi de buna ilave olunca petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda beklenmedik ve sert bir d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f ya\u015fand\u0131. Petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda bundan sonraki s\u00fcreci petrol \u00fcreticisi \u00fclkelerin politikalar\u0131 belirleyecek. Bu politikalar da 6 Aral\u0131k tarihli OPEC toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ortaya \u00e7\u0131kacak. OPEC \u00fcyesi ve di\u011fer \u00fcretici \u00fclkelerin \u00fcretimlerinde yeni bir k\u0131s\u0131nt\u0131ya gitme olas\u0131l\u0131klar\u0131 bulunuyor. Bu yap\u0131l\u0131rsa petrol fiyatlar\u0131 60-70 dolar aras\u0131nda istikrar kazanacak. E\u011fer \u00fcretim k\u0131s\u0131lmaz ise petrol fiyatlar\u0131nda gev\u015feme s\u00fcrecek.<\/span><\/p>

5. T\u00dcRK\u0130YE\u2019DE DE ASGAR\u0130 \u00dcCRET TOPLANTILARI BA\u015eLIYOR <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda T\u00fcrkiye \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek bir enflasyon ile kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya kald\u0131. Enflasyon en \u00e7ok da sabit ve dar gelirli vatanda\u015flar\u0131 olumsuz etkiledi. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 yakla\u015f\u0131rken sabit gelirli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar ve vatanda\u015flar \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 bekliyor. \u00dccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli i\u015fareti ise asgari \u00fccretteki art\u0131\u015flar veriyor. 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 asgari \u00fccretini belirleyecek asgari \u00fccret komisyonu ilk toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 6 Aral\u0131k tarihinde yapacak. Taraflar\u0131n teklifleri asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131ndaki aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 da belirlemi\u015f olacak. Asgari \u00fccret \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar i\u00e7in oldu\u011fu kadar 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fck s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131larla kar\u015f\u0131la\u015fan i\u015fverenler ve firmalar i\u00e7in de \u00e7ok \u00f6nemli olacak.<\/span><\/p>

Son S\u00f6z:<\/strong> aral\u0131k ay\u0131ndaki kritik toplant\u0131lar 2019 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 da \u015fekillendirecek. Bu toplant\u0131lar bitmeden 2019 \u00fczerindeki sis bulutu da\u011f\u0131lmayacak.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"aralik-ayinda-bes-kritik-toplanti-var","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda be\u015f kritik toplant\u0131 var","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":128,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}