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Afrika k\u0131tas\u0131, ekonomisi Asya\u2019dan sonra en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen b\u00f6lge. \u00dcstelik k\u0131tan\u0131n, az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler listesindeki \u00fcyeleri de bu gruptan \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. K\u0131ta \u00fclkelerinde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ortalama y\u00fczde 15 olan enflasyonun da bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 9.5\u2019e inmesi bekleniyor. Ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda do\u011fal kaynaklara ba\u011fl\u0131 olan k\u0131tan\u0131n uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc politikalar\u0131n kombinasyonuna ihtiyac\u0131 var.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u201cD\u00fcnyan\u0131n her taraf\u0131 kalk\u0131nsa, Afrika\u2019da en ufak k\u0131p\u0131rdama olmaz\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc art\u0131k anlam\u0131n\u0131 yitirdi. Hem k\u0131ta \u00fclkeleri Afrika Birli\u011fi \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kendi aralar\u0131nda hem de Avrupa, Asya ve ABD co\u011frafyalar\u0131 Afrikal\u0131larla temaslar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirmenin yollar\u0131n\u0131 ar\u0131yor. Eskiden \u00e7ok ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 merak edilmeyen konular aras\u0131nda yer alan Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH), \u015fimdilerde bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesi ve gelecek birka\u00e7 senenin tahminleri ilave edilerek raporlara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> IMF, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, Afrika Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131, Frans\u0131z Kalk\u0131nma Ajans\u0131 (AFD) dahil pek \u00e7ok uluslararas\u0131 ve ulusal kurulu\u015f, Afrika\u2019da ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen milli gelir hakk\u0131nda ciddi incelemelerde bulunup elde edilen verileri payla\u015f\u0131yor. Bu bilgiler, k\u0131ta i\u00e7indeki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli oldu\u011fu gibi do\u011frudan d\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren devletler ve \u015firketler, bu verileri almadan yeni hamlelere karar vermek istemiyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> EN \u0130Y\u0130LER VE EN K\u00d6T\u00dcLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 itibar\u0131yla Afrika\u2019n\u0131n en zengin \u00fclkeleri s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda birinci, Hint Okyanusu\u2019nda yer alan, yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 bin n\u00fcfuslu Sey\u015feller ada devletidir. \u0130ngiliz Global dergisinin ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131nda 193 \u00fclkeyi kapsayan s\u0131ralama yap\u0131ld\u0131. Sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesine g\u00f6re, d\u00fcnyada ilk s\u0131rada 145 bin 196 dolarla \u0130rlanda, 142 bin 490 dolarla L\u00fcksemburg ve 133 bin 895 dolarla Singapur, ilk \u00fc\u00e7te yer al\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Global listede 39 bin 662 dolarla 59. olan Sey\u015feller, Afrika k\u0131tas\u0131nda birinci. Ayn\u0131 okyanus \u00fczerindeki Moritus ada devleti 29 bin 164 dolarla ikinci, Libya 24 bin 559 dolarla \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131rada. Bunlar\u0131 Botsvana, Gabon, Ekvator Ginesi, M\u0131s\u0131r, G\u00fcney Afrika,\u00a0<\/span><\/p> Cezayir ve Tunus takip ediyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Afrika\u2019n\u0131n en zengin 10 \u00fclkesi s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda petrol, do\u011falgaz ve madenler yan\u0131nda hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, ziraat, turizm, tekstil, her t\u00fcrl\u00fc in\u015faat faaliyeti ve sanayi dahil pek \u00e7ok alanda \u00f6zellikle Nijerya, G\u00fcney Afrika, M\u0131s\u0131r, Fas, Kenya \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f ekonomileri ile \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 193 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda son 11 s\u0131rada Afrika \u00fclkeleri bulunuyor. K\u0131tada Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131las\u0131 en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan \u00fclkeler (son birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde askeri darbeler dahil i\u00e7 huzuru yakalayamayan) Nijer, Burkina Faso, Mali, Somali ve G\u00fcney Sudan.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> SANAY\u0130 DEVR\u0130M\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Sanayile\u015fme, Afrika toplumlar\u0131 i\u00e7in aciliyeti her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha fazla hissedilen bir konu. M\u0131s\u0131r, Cezayir, Fas, Senegal, Fildi\u015fi Sahili, Kongo Demokratik Cumhuriyeti gibi \u00fclkelerde 4\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc sanayi devrimi yava\u015f yava\u015f ilerliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> Afrika Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2010 y\u0131l\u0131ndan 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar olan geli\u015fmelere dayanarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, k\u0131tada en fazla sanayile\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda her \u00fclkede g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr ilerleme var (52 \u00fclkeden al\u0131nan verilere g\u00f6re, G\u00fcney Sudan ve Somali hari\u00e7).\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Ancak zorluklar da art\u0131yor. Afrika \u00fclkelerinin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesine g\u00f6re yap\u0131lan hesaplar, son y\u0131llardaki kayb\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 2020\u2019de Covid salg\u0131n\u0131, 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 hasarlar, artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon, hammadde fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fayan art\u0131\u015flar ve bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak tedarik zincirlerinde ya\u015fanan aksakl\u0131klar, bu olumsuzluklar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda geliyor. Ayr\u0131ca bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecine girdi. 2022\u2019de k\u0131tadaki 54 \u00fclkeden 53\u2019\u00fc Gayr\u0131 Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131lalar\u0131n\u0131 (GSYH) art\u0131rabildi. Se\u00e7imler g\u00fcvenli bir \u015fekilde yap\u0131labilirse, bu \u00fclkelerin GSYH\u2019leri m\u00fcspet seyrini devam ettirecektir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u0130KL\u0130M F\u0130NANSMANI<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bu kadar zor \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda, iklimle ilgili eylemlere ve ye\u015fil ekonomiye ge\u00e7i\u015fin h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na acil ihtiya\u00e7 duyuluyor. 213.4 milyar dolarl\u0131k iklim finansman\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in 2030 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar her sene y\u00fczde 36 oran\u0131nda \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r finansman\u0131 kilidinin a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> K\u0131tan\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinde, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi de etkin rol oynuyor. Bu \u015foklar\u0131n etkisi alt\u0131nda zor bir d\u00f6neme girildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclse de Afrika ekonomisi direncini koruyor. 2021\u2019de GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 4.8 seviyesine ula\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen beklenmeyen \u015foklar bunu y\u00fczde 3.8\u2019e \u00e7ekti. 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 4.1 seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda bir istikrar olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> EKONOM\u0130LER D\u0130REN\u00c7L\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.9\u2019da kal\u0131rken, Avrupa\u2019da ise bu oran sadece y\u00fczde 1.1 oldu. Afrika ekonomilerinin diren\u00e7li \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n sebebi ise 2023\u2019te petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceki y\u0131llara g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131. \u00d6zellikle Nijerya\u2019n\u0131n petrol h\u0131rs\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda \u00f6nlemesi ekonomiye g\u00fc\u00e7 katt\u0131. Mozambik, Senegal, Moritanya ve Gine\u2019nin do\u011falgaz ihracat\u0131 i\u00e7in her an vanalar\u0131 a\u00e7abilecek vaziyete gelmeleri, Do\u011fu Afrika \u00fclkelerinde de benzer geli\u015fmelerin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Ba\u015fta alt\u0131n olmak \u00fczere metallerin ihra\u00e7 fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmeye devam etmesi ve \u00f6zellikle alt\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferinin art\u0131\u015f\u0131, k\u0131ta ekonomilerine g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131r\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> YATIRIMCININ ARADI\u011eI<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00d6zellikle yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan Afrika\u2019ya gelen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n arad\u0131klar\u0131 hususlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00fcvenlik ve istikrar geliyor. Tanzanya, Gana, G\u00fcney Afrika, Fildi\u015fi Sahili ve Ruanda gibi \u00fclkeler son y\u0131llarda te\u015fvik edici. Ancak askeri darbelerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 Mali, Gine, Burkina Faso ve Nijer ile Sudan ve Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti, i\u00e7 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ve g\u00fcvensizli\u011fin \u00e7ok ileri seviyede bulunmas\u0131 sebebiyle cazibe ortam\u0131 \u00f6zelliklerini kaybetti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Herhangi bir \u00fclkede yat\u0131r\u0131m demek, \u00f6zellikle uluslararas\u0131 kredi veren odaklara m\u00fcracaat demektir. K\u0131tadaki 54 \u00fclkenin bor\u00e7lar\u0131, 2022 itibar\u0131yla 636 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu tutar 40 kadar Afrika \u00fclkesinin toplam GSYH\u2019sine denk geliyor. Sadece \u00c7in\u2019in tek ba\u015f\u0131na 84 milyar dolar alacakl\u0131 konumu, ondan bor\u00e7 alan her bir devleti daha da zor s\u00fcrecin bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> ENFLASYON KAR\u015eITI POL\u0130T\u0130KA<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Afrika\u2019da mevcut para politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 arz k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesi sayesinde enflasyon 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 14.2 seviyesinde kald\u0131. Ancak 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 15.2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fi hesaplanan enflasyonun 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 9.5 seviyelerine \u00e7ekilmesi bekleniyor. K\u0131tan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesini h\u0131zland\u0131rmak ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir hale getirmek i\u00e7in hem k\u0131sa hem de orta vadede uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc politikalar\u0131n kombinasyonuna ihtiya\u00e7 var.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Enflasyon kar\u015f\u0131t\u0131 para politikas\u0131 toparlanmay\u0131 s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli. Orta ve uzun vadede ise yurt i\u00e7i gelir seferberli\u011fini art\u0131rmak, ekonomik \u00e7e\u015fitlendirmeyi yayg\u0131nla\u015ft\u0131rmak ve sanayi politikalar\u0131n\u0131 geciktirmeden uygulamaktan ge\u00e7iyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> HIZINI ARTIRANLAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> D\u00fcnyada Covid salg\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ncesi en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen 10 \u00fclkeden 5\u2019i Afrika\u2019da yer al\u0131yor. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 itibar\u0131yla k\u0131tan\u0131n 18 \u00fclkesinde bunun y\u00fczde 5 seviyesini ge\u00e7mesi, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 i\u00e7in ise 22 \u00fclkenin benzeri bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesini yakalama beklentisi var. Benin, Fildi\u015fi Sahili, Etiyopya, Ruanda ve Tanzanya, mevcut konumlar\u0131yla bu konuda haz\u0131rlanan t\u00fcm raporlarda \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. En h\u0131zl\u0131 kalk\u0131nanlardan Etiyopya ise 2023\u2019te k\u0131ta ortalamas\u0131n\u0131n \u00fczerinde bir seviyeyi yakalayacak. Tekstilde me\u015fhur markalar bu \u00fclkede fabrikalar a\u00e7\u0131yor. Hidrojen enerji santrali, kara ve demiryollar\u0131 ile sanayi parklar\u0131na \u00f6nem veriliyor. Benzeri durum Ruanda i\u00e7in de ge\u00e7erli. IMF\u2019ye g\u00f6re 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 6.7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131yla dikkat \u00e7eken Ruanda\u2019n\u0131n, yenilenebilir enerjide \u00f6nc\u00fc bir konumu var. Ekoturizmi cazip hale getiren \u00fclke pek \u00e7ok alanda yabanc\u0131 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131 \u00e7ekmede ba\u015far\u0131l\u0131. \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 2023-2024 y\u0131llar\u0131ndaki GSYH, asl\u0131nda ge\u00e7mi\u015fle k\u0131yasland\u0131\u011f\u0131nda biraz d\u00fc\u015fse de y\u00fczde 4 gibi bir oranla t\u00fcm k\u0131talar aras\u0131nda Asya\u2019dan sonra ikinci s\u0131rada yer al\u0131yor. \u015eimdiden istikametleri takdir ediliyor. K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ekonomiler az veya \u00e7ok kalk\u0131nma seviyesine katk\u0131 yapacaklar ve ekonomik hayat\u0131n motoru olacaklar.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Afrika K\u0131tas\u0131 Serbest Ticaret B\u00f6lgesi Anla\u015fmas\u0131yla 3 trilyon dolarl\u0131k bir pazar\u0131 kapsayan 54 \u00fcye \u00fclke, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en geni\u015f a\u011f\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturuyor. K\u0131ta \u00fclkeleri, 3 trilyon 400 milyar dolarl\u0131k birle\u015ftirilmi\u015f GSYH ile s\u0131n\u0131r \u00f6tesi engelleri a\u015f\u0131p, zorunlu s\u00fcre\u00e7leri kolayla\u015ft\u0131rmak suretiyle b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomik hamlelere haz\u0131r hale geliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> D\u00dcNYANIN EN ZENG\u0130NLER\u0130 BURADA YA\u015eADI<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Tarihin farkl\u0131 \u00e7a\u011flar\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n en zengin insanlar\u0131n\u0131n Afrika\u2019da ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 biliniyor. Tarih\u00e7ilerin ve ekonomistlerin tespitlerine g\u00f6re, g\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcz d\u00fcnyas\u0131 dahil t\u00fcm \u00e7a\u011flar\u0131n en zengin insani 1311-1334 y\u0131llar\u0131 aras\u0131nda Mali sultan\u0131 olan Mense Musa idi. \u015eimdilerde serveti Nijerya Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n resmi d\u00f6viz piyasas\u0131n\u0131 serbest b\u0131rakmas\u0131yla 13.5 milyar dolarken 4.12 milyar azalan Ali Dangote\u2019un yerini 12 milyar dolarl\u0131k mal varl\u0131\u011f\u0131yla G\u00fcney Afrikal\u0131 Johann Rupert ald\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> AZ GEL\u0130\u015eM\u0130\u015e \u00dcLKELER\u0130N DURUMU<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 2003\u2019te tespit edilen kriterlere g\u00f6re, sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcne ba\u011fl\u0131 ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen geliri 1.025 dolar\u0131n alt\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fenler, az geli\u015fmi\u015f kabul ediliyor. Birle\u015fmi\u015f Milletler, 1971 y\u0131l\u0131nda Az Geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00dclkeler ad\u0131yla bir s\u0131n\u0131fland\u0131rma yaparak sosyo-ekonomik veriler \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda az geli\u015fmi\u015f 25 \u00fclke tespit etmi\u015fti. 2017\u2019de 193 \u00fclkeden 45\u2019i bu s\u0131n\u0131fa d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc. Bunlar\u0131n 33\u2019\u00fc Afrika\u2019da, 8\u2019i Asya\u2019da ve 1\u2019i Amerika\u2019da. Say\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fmese de Bostvana, Kabo Verde ve Ekvator Ginesi gibi \u00fclkeler ekonomilerini d\u00fczelterek bu listeden \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Angola\u2019n\u0131n ismi de 12 \u015eubat 2024\u2019te listeden silinecek. 2027\u2019den itibaren ismi listeden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lacaklar aras\u0131nda Komorlar, Cibuti, Senegal ve Zambiya da bulunuyor. B\u00f6ylece Afrika\u2019daki az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke say\u0131s\u0131 24\u2019e inecek. Bir di\u011fer \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fc de \u00fclkelerin D\u00fcnya Ticaret \u00d6rg\u00fct\u00fc\u2019ne (DT\u00d6) \u00fcye olmalar\u0131yla alakal\u0131. 45 az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeden 35\u2019i bu uluslararas\u0131 kurulu\u015f i\u00e7inde yer al\u0131yor. Afrika\u2019da Komorlar, Etiyopya, Sao Tome ve Sudan g\u00f6zlemci \u00fcyeler. Aralar\u0131nda Eritre, Somali ve G\u00fcney Sudan\u2019\u0131n da bulundu\u011fu 6 \u00fclke ise DT\u00d6 ile herhangi bir ba\u011fa sahip de\u011fil.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> GEM\u0130 TRAF\u0130\u011e\u0130 DENGELER\u0130 ETK\u0130LEYECEK<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Ta\u015f\u0131mac\u0131l\u0131kta, k\u00fcresel ekonomik dengeleri etkileyecek geli\u015fmeler ya\u015fan\u0131yor. K\u0131z\u0131ldeniz\u2019deki gerginlik ve Panama Kanal\u0131\u2019n\u0131n kurakl\u0131k sebebiyle ihtiyaca cevap verememesi, bunlardan ikisi. Bu geli\u015fmeler nedeniyle beklenmeyen fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve di\u011fer hassas geli\u015fmeler \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l\u0131n ekonomik g\u00f6stergelerinde etkili olacak. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc Flexport\u2019un yeni verileri i\u00e7 a\u00e7\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil; 4.3 milyon konteyner ta\u015f\u0131yan b\u00fcy\u00fck gemiler, mesafeleri a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 uzasa da g\u00fcvenlik i\u00e7in rota de\u011fi\u015ftirmek zorunda kald\u0131.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> EKOTUR\u0130ZMDEN 38 M\u0130LYAR DOLAR<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Afrika petrol, do\u011falgaz, \u00e7e\u015fitli minareller, toprak, g\u00fcne\u015f, r\u00fczgar, biyo\u00e7e\u015fitlilik gibi do\u011fal kaynaklar konusunda \u00e7ok zengin. \u00d6l\u00e7\u00fclebilen bu do\u011fal sermayesi, 2018 y\u0131l\u0131nda 6.2 trilyon dolar tahmin ediliyordu. Bunun i\u00e7inde mineraller 290 milyar dolar, fosil yak\u0131tlar 1 trilyon 500 milyar dolarl\u0131k paya sahip. Bunun yan\u0131 s\u0131ra sadece 2019\u2019da ekoturizm sayesinde 38.5 milyar dolar gelir sa\u011flanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. K\u0131tan\u0131n GSYH\u2019sinin y\u00fczde 60\u2019\u0131 do\u011fal kaynaklara dayal\u0131. Haliyle k\u0131tan\u0131n kalk\u0131nmas\u0131n\u0131n temel belirleyicisi do\u011fal kaynak gelirlerinin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir \u015fekilde art\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in gerekli politikalar uygulanacak. Yolsuzluk, yasad\u0131\u015f\u0131 ticaret ve finans ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 korumay\u0131 sa\u011flamak i\u00e7in \u015feffaf ve hesap verebilir kurumlar gerekiyor. \u00a0 \u00a0<\/span><\/p>","slug":"afrikanin-guvencesi-cesitlendirilmis-ekonomi","tags":null,"meta_title":null,"meta_description":null,"meta_keywords":null,"news_cover_min":"\/front\/uploads\/blog\/thumbnail\/17058708008Mwdd9P38FZdK34.webp","news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":6417,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":30,"name":"AHMET","surname":"KAVAS","email":"prof-dr-ahmet-kavas@gmail.com","slug":"prof-dr-ahmet-kavas","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916002RXDhDXyMw3kEXW.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-10-24T11:09:13.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:44:44.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":47972,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":47846,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"Afrika\u2019n\u0131n g\u00fcvencesi \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f ekonomi","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":"PROF. DR. AHMET KAVAS","content":" Afrika k\u0131tas\u0131, ekonomisi Asya\u2019dan sonra en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcyen b\u00f6lge. \u00dcstelik k\u0131tan\u0131n, az geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler listesindeki \u00fcyeleri de bu gruptan \u00e7\u0131kmaya ba\u015flad\u0131. K\u0131ta \u00fclkelerinde ge\u00e7en y\u0131l ortalama y\u00fczde 15 olan enflasyonun da bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 9.5\u2019e inmesi bekleniyor. Ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda do\u011fal kaynaklara ba\u011fl\u0131 olan k\u0131tan\u0131n uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc politikalar\u0131n kombinasyonuna ihtiyac\u0131 var.\u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u201cD\u00fcnyan\u0131n her taraf\u0131 kalk\u0131nsa, Afrika\u2019da en ufak k\u0131p\u0131rdama olmaz\u201d g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fc art\u0131k anlam\u0131n\u0131 yitirdi. Hem k\u0131ta \u00fclkeleri Afrika Birli\u011fi \u00f6nc\u00fcl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde kendi aralar\u0131nda hem de Avrupa, Asya ve ABD co\u011frafyalar\u0131 Afrikal\u0131larla temaslar\u0131n\u0131 geli\u015ftirmenin yollar\u0131n\u0131 ar\u0131yor. Eskiden \u00e7ok ayr\u0131nt\u0131l\u0131 merak edilmeyen konular aras\u0131nda yer alan Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH), \u015fimdilerde bir y\u0131l \u00f6ncesi ve gelecek birka\u00e7 senenin tahminleri ilave edilerek raporlara d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> IMF, D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131, Afrika Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131, Frans\u0131z Kalk\u0131nma Ajans\u0131 (AFD) dahil pek \u00e7ok uluslararas\u0131 ve ulusal kurulu\u015f, Afrika\u2019da ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen milli gelir hakk\u0131nda ciddi incelemelerde bulunup elde edilen verileri payla\u015f\u0131yor. Bu bilgiler, k\u0131ta i\u00e7indeki yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in \u00f6nemli oldu\u011fu gibi do\u011frudan d\u0131\u015f yat\u0131r\u0131mlara a\u011f\u0131rl\u0131k veren devletler ve \u015firketler, bu verileri almadan yeni hamlelere karar vermek istemiyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> EN \u0130Y\u0130LER VE EN K\u00d6T\u00dcLER<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 itibar\u0131yla Afrika\u2019n\u0131n en zengin \u00fclkeleri s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda birinci, Hint Okyanusu\u2019nda yer alan, yakla\u015f\u0131k 100 bin n\u00fcfuslu Sey\u015feller ada devletidir. \u0130ngiliz Global dergisinin ara\u015ft\u0131rmas\u0131nda 193 \u00fclkeyi kapsayan s\u0131ralama yap\u0131ld\u0131. Sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesine g\u00f6re, d\u00fcnyada ilk s\u0131rada 145 bin 196 dolarla \u0130rlanda, 142 bin 490 dolarla L\u00fcksemburg ve 133 bin 895 dolarla Singapur, ilk \u00fc\u00e7te yer al\u0131yor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Global listede 39 bin 662 dolarla 59. olan Sey\u015feller, Afrika k\u0131tas\u0131nda birinci. Ayn\u0131 okyanus \u00fczerindeki Moritus ada devleti 29 bin 164 dolarla ikinci, Libya 24 bin 559 dolarla \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc s\u0131rada. Bunlar\u0131 Botsvana, Gabon, Ekvator Ginesi, M\u0131s\u0131r, G\u00fcney Afrika,\u00a0<\/span><\/p> Cezayir ve Tunus takip ediyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Afrika\u2019n\u0131n en zengin 10 \u00fclkesi s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda petrol, do\u011falgaz ve madenler yan\u0131nda hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fc, ziraat, turizm, tekstil, her t\u00fcrl\u00fc in\u015faat faaliyeti ve sanayi dahil pek \u00e7ok alanda \u00f6zellikle Nijerya, G\u00fcney Afrika, M\u0131s\u0131r, Fas, Kenya \u00e7e\u015fitlendirilmi\u015f ekonomileri ile \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131k\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> 193 \u00fclke aras\u0131nda son 11 s\u0131rada Afrika \u00fclkeleri bulunuyor. K\u0131tada Gayri Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131las\u0131 en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck olan \u00fclkeler (son birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde askeri darbeler dahil i\u00e7 huzuru yakalayamayan) Nijer, Burkina Faso, Mali, Somali ve G\u00fcney Sudan.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> SANAY\u0130 DEVR\u0130M\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Sanayile\u015fme, Afrika toplumlar\u0131 i\u00e7in aciliyeti her ge\u00e7en g\u00fcn daha fazla hissedilen bir konu. M\u0131s\u0131r, Cezayir, Fas, Senegal, Fildi\u015fi Sahili, Kongo Demokratik Cumhuriyeti gibi \u00fclkelerde 4\u2019\u00fcnc\u00fc sanayi devrimi yava\u015f yava\u015f ilerliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> Afrika Kalk\u0131nma Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n 2010 y\u0131l\u0131ndan 2023 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar olan geli\u015fmelere dayanarak yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 ara\u015ft\u0131rmaya g\u00f6re, k\u0131tada en fazla sanayile\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkeler s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda her \u00fclkede g\u00f6zle g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcr ilerleme var (52 \u00fclkeden al\u0131nan verilere g\u00f6re, G\u00fcney Sudan ve Somali hari\u00e7).\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Ancak zorluklar da art\u0131yor. Afrika \u00fclkelerinin sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesine g\u00f6re yap\u0131lan hesaplar, son y\u0131llardaki kayb\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. 2020\u2019de Covid salg\u0131n\u0131, 2022\u2019de Ukrayna sava\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flamas\u0131, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fine ba\u011fl\u0131 hasarlar, artan enerji fiyatlar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 enflasyon, hammadde fiyatlar\u0131nda ya\u015fayan art\u0131\u015flar ve bunlara ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak tedarik zincirlerinde ya\u015fanan aksakl\u0131klar, bu olumsuzluklar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda geliyor. Ayr\u0131ca bir\u00e7ok \u00fclke se\u00e7im s\u00fcrecine girdi. 2022\u2019de k\u0131tadaki 54 \u00fclkeden 53\u2019\u00fc Gayr\u0131 Safi Yurti\u00e7i Has\u0131lalar\u0131n\u0131 (GSYH) art\u0131rabildi. Se\u00e7imler g\u00fcvenli bir \u015fekilde yap\u0131labilirse, bu \u00fclkelerin GSYH\u2019leri m\u00fcspet seyrini devam ettirecektir.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u0130KL\u0130M F\u0130NANSMANI<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Bu kadar zor \u015fartlar alt\u0131nda, iklimle ilgili eylemlere ve ye\u015fil ekonomiye ge\u00e7i\u015fin h\u0131zland\u0131r\u0131lmas\u0131na acil ihtiya\u00e7 duyuluyor. 213.4 milyar dolarl\u0131k iklim finansman\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n kapat\u0131lmas\u0131 i\u00e7in 2030 y\u0131l\u0131na kadar her sene y\u00fczde 36 oran\u0131nda \u00f6zel sekt\u00f6r finansman\u0131 kilidinin a\u00e7\u0131lmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> K\u0131tan\u0131n ihracat\u0131n\u0131n d\u00fc\u015fmesinde, k\u00fcresel b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclmesi de etkin rol oynuyor. Bu \u015foklar\u0131n etkisi alt\u0131nda zor bir d\u00f6neme girildi\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fclse de Afrika ekonomisi direncini koruyor. 2021\u2019de GSYH b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi y\u00fczde 4.8 seviyesine ula\u015fmas\u0131na ra\u011fmen beklenmeyen \u015foklar bunu y\u00fczde 3.8\u2019e \u00e7ekti. 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 4.1 seviyesine ula\u015f\u0131lmas\u0131 durumunda bir istikrar olaca\u011f\u0131 tahmin ediliyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> EKONOM\u0130LER D\u0130REN\u00c7L\u0130<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> D\u00fcnya ekonomisinde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 2.9\u2019da kal\u0131rken, Avrupa\u2019da ise bu oran sadece y\u00fczde 1.1 oldu. Afrika ekonomilerinin diren\u00e7li \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n sebebi ise 2023\u2019te petrol fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6nceki y\u0131llara g\u00f6re y\u00fcksek kalmas\u0131. \u00d6zellikle Nijerya\u2019n\u0131n petrol h\u0131rs\u0131zl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda \u00f6nlemesi ekonomiye g\u00fc\u00e7 katt\u0131. Mozambik, Senegal, Moritanya ve Gine\u2019nin do\u011falgaz ihracat\u0131 i\u00e7in her an vanalar\u0131 a\u00e7abilecek vaziyete gelmeleri, Do\u011fu Afrika \u00fclkelerinde de benzer geli\u015fmelerin varl\u0131\u011f\u0131 dikkat \u00e7ekiyor. Ba\u015fta alt\u0131n olmak \u00fczere metallerin ihra\u00e7 fiyatlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fckselmeye devam etmesi ve \u00f6zellikle alt\u0131n\u0131n de\u011ferinin art\u0131\u015f\u0131, k\u0131ta ekonomilerine g\u00fc\u00e7 kazand\u0131r\u0131yor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> YATIRIMCININ ARADI\u011eI<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00d6zellikle yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131ndan Afrika\u2019ya gelen yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar\u0131n arad\u0131klar\u0131 hususlar\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131nda g\u00fcvenlik ve istikrar geliyor. Tanzanya, Gana, G\u00fcney Afrika, Fildi\u015fi Sahili ve Ruanda gibi \u00fclkeler son y\u0131llarda te\u015fvik edici. Ancak askeri darbelerin ya\u015fand\u0131\u011f\u0131 Mali, Gine, Burkina Faso ve Nijer ile Sudan ve Orta Afrika Cumhuriyeti, i\u00e7 \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n ve g\u00fcvensizli\u011fin \u00e7ok ileri seviyede bulunmas\u0131 sebebiyle cazibe ortam\u0131 \u00f6zelliklerini kaybetti.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Herhangi bir \u00fclkede yat\u0131r\u0131m demek, \u00f6zellikle uluslararas\u0131 kredi veren odaklara m\u00fcracaat demektir. K\u0131tadaki 54 \u00fclkenin bor\u00e7lar\u0131, 2022 itibar\u0131yla 636 milyar dolara ula\u015ft\u0131. Bu tutar 40 kadar Afrika \u00fclkesinin toplam GSYH\u2019sine denk geliyor. Sadece \u00c7in\u2019in tek ba\u015f\u0131na 84 milyar dolar alacakl\u0131 konumu, ondan bor\u00e7 alan her bir devleti daha da zor s\u00fcrecin bekledi\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.\u00a0<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/strong><\/p> ENFLASYON KAR\u015eITI POL\u0130T\u0130KA<\/span><\/strong><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p> Afrika\u2019da mevcut para politikalar\u0131n\u0131 s\u0131kla\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc ve yurt d\u0131\u015f\u0131 arz k\u0131s\u0131tlamalar\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesi sayesinde enflasyon 2022\u2019de y\u00fczde 14.2 seviyesinde kald\u0131. Ancak 2023\u2019te y\u00fczde 15.2\u2019ye y\u00fckseldi\u011fi hesaplanan enflasyonun 2024\u2019te y\u00fczde 9.5 seviyelerine \u00e7ekilmesi bekleniyor. K\u0131tan\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme ivmesini h\u0131zland\u0131rmak ve s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir hale getirmek i\u00e7in hem k\u0131sa hem de orta vadede uzun \u00f6m\u00fcrl\u00fc politikalar\u0131n kombinasyonuna ihtiya\u00e7 var.<\/span><\/p> \u00a0<\/span><\/p>
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