{"status":true,"post":{"id":12672,"user_id":10,"status":1,"type":1,"orde":null,"notification_type":3,"static_post":0,"published_at":"2022-10-21 09:18:39","created_at":"2015-10-04T21:00:00.000000Z","updated_at":"2022-10-21T06:18:39.000000Z","edited_at":"2024-12-17 22:35:21","source_id":null,"post_id":12672,"is_featured":0,"title":"ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 bir y\u0131l\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ald\u0131","slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"category_id":73,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

K\u00fcresel ekonomi 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi alt\u0131nda ve bu beklentinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etkiler ile ge\u00e7irdi. Bu etkiler ile k\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda dalgalanmalar ya\u015fan\u0131rken geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde de ekonomiler yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. FED etkilerini de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span><\/p>

1. FED 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda faiz art\u0131racak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2013 y\u0131l\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 parasal geni\u015fleme s\u00fcrecine son vermeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan FED, bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 Ekim ay\u0131nda parasal geni\u015flemeyi sona erdirmi\u015fti. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na ise ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tuttu\u011fu faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rma beklentisi ile girildi. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 Mart ay\u0131ndan itibaren FED\u2019in her faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131 faiz art\u0131rma beklentileri ile ge\u00e7irildi. FED, k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n seviyeye indirdi\u011fi faizleri art\u0131rma s\u00fcrecine \u00e7ok yakla\u015ft\u0131, ancak eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda da yine art\u0131rmad\u0131. Bununla birlikte ekim ve aral\u0131k aylar\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131larda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u015eimdi b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya FED\u2019in <\/span>27-28 Ekim tarihlerindeki faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmazsa aral\u0131k ay\u0131 beklenecek ve koca bir y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00f6ylece ge\u00e7irmi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z. <\/span><\/p>

2. Faiz art\u0131rmad\u0131, ancak faiz art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f gibi etkiledi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

FED hen\u00fcz faiz art\u0131rmam\u0131\u015f olmakla birlikte d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde sanki faiz art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f gibi etkileri ya\u015fan\u0131yor. \u00d6ncelikle dolar t\u00fcm para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131. \u00d6zellikle geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerden baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n para birimleri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kaybetti. Bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli etki yine \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerden \u00f6nemli sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ve bu \u00fclkelerin d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin azalmas\u0131 oldu. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ile gerilerken, gerileme \u00c7in ekonomisindeki yava\u015flama ile beklentilerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin hisse sendi piyasalar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. FED\u2019in hen\u00fcz ya\u015fanmayan tek etkisi kald\u0131. O da yine \u00f6zelikle geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olacak.<\/span><\/p>

3. Belirsizlik uzamamal\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

FED 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcne kadarki d\u00f6nemini beklenti y\u00f6netimi ile ge\u00e7irdi ve ister istemez herkes i\u00e7in belirsizlik yaratt\u0131. T\u00fcm mali fiyatlarda \u00f6nemli dalgalanmalar olu\u015ftu. \u00d6rne\u011fin Euro-dolar paritesi y\u0131l i\u00e7inde genellikle 1.10 etraf\u0131nda kalmakla birlikte 1.05\u2019e kadar geriledi, 1.17\u2019ye kadar da y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrelerde y\u00fcksek dalgalanmalar ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu dalgalanmalar i\u00e7inde mali piyasalar belki kendini y\u00f6netebildi, ama bu i\u015ften en zararl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan reel kesim oldu. Bu nedenle art\u0131k FED\u2019in belirsizli\u011fi uzatmamas\u0131 en iyisi olacak. E\u011fer faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na kal\u0131rsa, ayn\u0131 belirsizlikleri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l da ya\u015famak zorunda kalabilece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>

4. FED ve se\u00e7im s\u00fcreci <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

FED\u2019in olu\u015fturdu\u011fu belirsizlik ortam\u0131 i\u00e7inde T\u00fcrkiye 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda iki genel se\u00e7im ya\u015f\u0131yor. Bu nedenle di\u011fer geli\u015fen \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re geli\u015fmelerden Brezilya ile birlikte daha \u00e7ok etkileniyor. Y\u0131l genelini y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapataca\u011f\u0131z. B\u00f6ylece son 4 y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn de alt\u0131na inecek. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin mutlaka yeniden y\u00fczde 4-5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposuna ula\u015fmas\u0131 gerekiyor. K\u00fcresel ticaretin geriledi\u011fi, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n dura\u011fanla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, sermayenin \u00e7ekildi\u011fi ve \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00fcstl\u00fck bir de faizlerin artmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle toplumsal ve siyasi uzla\u015fmay\u0131 yeniden sa\u011flamay\u0131 ve ekonomide kaynaklar\u0131 yeniden da\u011f\u0131tmay\u0131 ba\u015farmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

Son s\u00f6z:<\/strong> 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 kazanman\u0131n yollar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden aramal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"abd-merkez-bankasi-bir-yilimizi-aldi","tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 bir y\u0131l\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ald\u0131","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"view_count":1092,"cropped_1200x675":null,"user":{"id":10,"name":"CAN","surname":"G\u00dcRLESEL","email":"durmaz.umran@superposta.com","slug":"dr-can-gurlesel","avatar":"\/front\/uploads\/avatar\/17336916008P5QTYWdQ2pLpLn.webp","status":1,"role":1,"email_verified_at":null,"orde":null,"created_at":"2022-09-15T09:39:41.000000Z","updated_at":"2024-12-18T09:51:00.000000Z","seo_title":null,"seo_description":null},"translations":[{"id":12771,"is_featured":0,"is_amp":0,"is_ads":0,"ads_link":null,"post_id":12672,"locale":"tr","category_id":73,"title":"ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 bir y\u0131l\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ald\u0131","home_title":null,"sub_title":null,"slider_title":null,"slider_title_2":null,"slider_spot_title":null,"slider_spot_title_2":null,"subtitleuse":0,"description":null,"content":" \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t

K\u00fcresel ekonomi 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n (FED) faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 beklentisi alt\u0131nda ve bu beklentinin yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 etkiler ile ge\u00e7irdi. Bu etkiler ile k\u00fcresel mali piyasalarda dalgalanmalar ya\u015fan\u0131rken geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde de ekonomiler yava\u015flamaya ba\u015flad\u0131. FED etkilerini de\u011ferlendirelim.<\/span><\/p>

1. FED 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda faiz art\u0131racak<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

2013 y\u0131l\u0131 May\u0131s ay\u0131nda k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 parasal geni\u015fleme s\u00fcrecine son vermeye ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klayan FED, bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede 2014 y\u0131l\u0131 Ekim ay\u0131nda parasal geni\u015flemeyi sona erdirmi\u015fti. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131na ise ola\u011fan\u00fcst\u00fc d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tuttu\u011fu faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131 art\u0131rma beklentisi ile girildi. 2015 y\u0131l\u0131 Mart ay\u0131ndan itibaren FED\u2019in her faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131 faiz art\u0131rma beklentileri ile ge\u00e7irildi. FED, k\u00fcresel kriz sonras\u0131 s\u0131f\u0131ra yak\u0131n seviyeye indirdi\u011fi faizleri art\u0131rma s\u00fcrecine \u00e7ok yakla\u015ft\u0131, ancak eyl\u00fcl ay\u0131nda da yine art\u0131rmad\u0131. Bununla birlikte ekim ve aral\u0131k aylar\u0131ndaki toplant\u0131larda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek oldu\u011funu a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. \u015eimdi b\u00fct\u00fcn d\u00fcnya FED\u2019in <\/span>27-28 Ekim tarihlerindeki faiz toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 bekliyor. Faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmazsa aral\u0131k ay\u0131 beklenecek ve koca bir y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00f6ylece ge\u00e7irmi\u015f olaca\u011f\u0131z. <\/span><\/p>

2. Faiz art\u0131rmad\u0131, ancak faiz art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f gibi etkiledi<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

FED hen\u00fcz faiz art\u0131rmam\u0131\u015f olmakla birlikte d\u00fcnya ekonomisinde sanki faiz art\u0131rm\u0131\u015f gibi etkileri ya\u015fan\u0131yor. \u00d6ncelikle dolar t\u00fcm para birimleri kar\u015f\u0131s\u0131nda de\u011fer kazand\u0131. \u00d6zellikle geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerden baz\u0131lar\u0131n\u0131n para birimleri \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kaybetti. Bir di\u011fer \u00f6nemli etki yine \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerden \u00f6nemli sermaye \u00e7\u0131k\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ya\u015fanmas\u0131 ve bu \u00fclkelerin d\u00f6viz rezervlerinin azalmas\u0131 oldu. Emtia fiyatlar\u0131 dolar\u0131n g\u00fc\u00e7lenmesi ile gerilerken, gerileme \u00c7in ekonomisindeki yava\u015flama ile beklentilerin \u00fczerine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerin hisse sendi piyasalar\u0131 zay\u0131flad\u0131. FED\u2019in hen\u00fcz ya\u015fanmayan tek etkisi kald\u0131. O da yine \u00f6zelikle geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n art\u0131\u015f\u0131 olacak.<\/span><\/p>

3. Belirsizlik uzamamal\u0131<\/strong><\/span><\/p>

FED 2015 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n bug\u00fcne kadarki d\u00f6nemini beklenti y\u00f6netimi ile ge\u00e7irdi ve ister istemez herkes i\u00e7in belirsizlik yaratt\u0131. T\u00fcm mali fiyatlarda \u00f6nemli dalgalanmalar olu\u015ftu. \u00d6rne\u011fin Euro-dolar paritesi y\u0131l i\u00e7inde genellikle 1.10 etraf\u0131nda kalmakla birlikte 1.05\u2019e kadar geriledi, 1.17\u2019ye kadar da y\u00fckseldi. \u00c7ok k\u0131sa s\u00fcrelerde y\u00fcksek dalgalanmalar ya\u015fand\u0131. Bu dalgalanmalar i\u00e7inde mali piyasalar belki kendini y\u00f6netebildi, ama bu i\u015ften en zararl\u0131 \u00e7\u0131kan reel kesim oldu. Bu nedenle art\u0131k FED\u2019in belirsizli\u011fi uzatmamas\u0131 en iyisi olacak. E\u011fer faiz art\u0131\u015f\u0131 2016 y\u0131l\u0131na kal\u0131rsa, ayn\u0131 belirsizlikleri \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki y\u0131l da ya\u015famak zorunda kalabilece\u011fiz.<\/span><\/p>

4. FED ve se\u00e7im s\u00fcreci <\/strong><\/span><\/p>

FED\u2019in olu\u015fturdu\u011fu belirsizlik ortam\u0131 i\u00e7inde T\u00fcrkiye 2015 y\u0131l\u0131nda iki genel se\u00e7im ya\u015f\u0131yor. Bu nedenle di\u011fer geli\u015fen \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re geli\u015fmelerden Brezilya ile birlikte daha \u00e7ok etkileniyor. Y\u0131l genelini y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn alt\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile kapataca\u011f\u0131z. B\u00f6ylece son 4 y\u0131l\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmesi ortalamas\u0131 y\u00fczde 3\u2019\u00fcn de alt\u0131na inecek. T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin mutlaka yeniden y\u00fczde 4-5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131nda bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme temposuna ula\u015fmas\u0131 gerekiyor. K\u00fcresel ticaretin geriledi\u011fi, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n dura\u011fanla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131, sermayenin \u00e7ekildi\u011fi ve \u00fcst\u00fcne \u00fcstl\u00fck bir de faizlerin artmaya ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 bir ortamda b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi h\u0131zland\u0131rmak i\u00e7in \u00f6ncelikle toplumsal ve siyasi uzla\u015fmay\u0131 yeniden sa\u011flamay\u0131 ve ekonomide kaynaklar\u0131 yeniden da\u011f\u0131tmay\u0131 ba\u015farmal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p>

Son s\u00f6z:<\/strong> 2016 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131 kazanman\u0131n yollar\u0131n\u0131 \u015fimdiden aramal\u0131y\u0131z.<\/span><\/p> \t\t\t\t","slug":"abd-merkez-bankasi-bir-yilimizi-aldi","orjinalimage":null,"news_cover_min":null,"news_cover":null,"news_video_min":null,"news_video":null,"cropped_638x552":null,"cropped_310x208":null,"cropped_416x247":null,"cropped_197x247":null,"cropped_416x600":null,"cropped_1200x675":null,"tags":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","meta_title":"ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 bir y\u0131l\u0131m\u0131z\u0131 ald\u0131","meta_description":"Dr. Can G\u00fcrlesel","meta_keywords":"K\u00f6\u015fe Yaz\u0131s\u0131","view_count":1092,"yt":0,"ytid":"","ytimage":null,"imgdate":"2000-01-01 00:00:00","cuff_cover":null,"cropped_358x214":null,"cropped_842x474":null}]}}